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The First 10% of the Season in Review: The Starters

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A long time ago, Herb Carneal or Vin Scully or some other old coot told me that aside from certain specific matchups, at any given point in a season most major league starters aren't remembering much more about their season than their three most recent starts.

Another time, my dad pointed out to me how USA Today's Sports section provides information about that day's starters' three most recent outings.  (Pops tells me that this is the absolute minimum amount of information that a gambler would want to know before calling in his action.)

So you see... 3. It's the magic number.  Yes, it is.  It's the magic number.

And if you allow each pitcher in your favorite team's rotation to amass three starts and then stop to see how they've all done during their three respective starts, you should be about fifteen games (or five three-game series) further along than the last time you took inventory.  And if you fudge the math to keep things simple (and keep things magic!) you'll find that fifteen games is about 10% of your 162-game baseball season.

So here we are.  Roughly 10% of the way through the Reds' 2008 season.

How we lookin'?

Star-divide

Aaron Harang during this first 10% of the season:  27ip  22h  10er  7bb  21k  4hr

3/31  v  AZ:   6ip  3h   2er  2bb  6k  2hr
4/5  v PHIL:  7ip  6h   2er  3bb  6k  0hr
4/10 @ MIL:  8ip  5h  1er  0bb  3k  0hr
4/15 @ CHI: 6ip  8h  5er  2bb  6k  2hr

Harang's worst inning:
bottom 5th CHI leads 3-2:  Dempster flyout - Fontenot 2B - Theriot BB - Lee HR -Ramirez lineout - Fukudome 1B - DeRosa K

Harang's stats without that inning:  26ip  19h  7er  6bb  20k  3hr

Bronson Arroyo during this first 10% of the season:  15.2ip  19h  9er  5bb  14k  5hr

4/2   v   AZ:   5ip   4h   2er   3bb  5k  1hr
4/7  v  PHI:  5.2ip  9h  5er  0bb  6k  4hr(!)
4/12 @PIT:  5ip    6h  2er  2bb  3k  0hr

Arroyo's worst inning:
top 1st PIT at bat:  Rollins HR - Victorino flyout - Utley groundout - Howard 2B - Burrell HR - Jenkins popout

Arroyo's stats without that inning:  14.2ip  16 h  6er  5bb  14k  3hr

Johnny Cueto during this first 10% of the season:  19.1ip  11h  8er  1bb(!)  24k  4hr

4/3   v   AZ:  7ip   1h  1er  0bb  10k  0hr
4/8  v PHI:  6.1ip  5h  2er  0bb  8k  1hr
4/13 @PIT: 6 ip  5h  5er  1bb  6k  2hr

Cueto's worst inning:
bottom 6th PIT leads 2-0:  McLouth 2B - Rivas lineout - Bay 1B - Doumit sacfly - Nady HR - Mientkiewicz flyout

Cuetos' stats without that inning:  18.1ip  8h  5er  1bb(!)  24K  3hr

Josh Fogg during the first 10% of the season:  11ip  16h  16er  5bb  9k  4hr

4/4  v  PHI:  4ip  5h  6er  3bb  3k  2hr
4/9 @ MIL:  5ip  4h  1er  0bb  3k 1hr
4/16 @ CHI:  2ip  7h  9er  2bb  3k  1hr

Fogg's worst inning:
bottom 3rd CHI leads 4-1:  Lee HR - Ramirez BB - Fukudome 1B - DeRosa BB - Soto 2B - Johnson sacfly - Zambrano 1B - Fontenot groundout - Theriot 1B - Lee BB - Ramirez K (after a wild pitch scores Fontenot)

Fogg's stats without that inning:  10ip  11h  10er  2bb  9k  3hr

Edinson Volquez during the first 10% of the season:  15.1ip  12h  2er(!)  9bb  16k  0hr

4/6  v  PHI:  5.1ip  5h  1er  2bb  8k  0hr
4/11 @ PIT:  5ip   3h  0er  3bb  1k  0hr
4/17 @CHI:  5ip  4h  1er  4bb  7k  0hr

Volquez's worst inning:
bottom 2nd, no score, CHI at bat:  Ramirez 1B - Fukudome K - DeRosa BB - Johnson 1B - Blanco K - LIlly BB - Fontenot groundout

Volquez's stats without that inning:  14.1ip  10h  1er(!)  7bb  15k  0hr

 

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Josh Fogg gets a bad rap.

Remove his worst inning (in which he gave up six runs) and his ERA comes all the way down to a much more respectable 9.00!

by Geki on Apr 18, 2008 2:20 AM EDT   0 recs

Shit, you can remove his worst GAME..

..and then remove the worst inning in the remaining two games and I think his ERA (4.50) is still higher than all but Arroyo’s.

by Fat Vegas Alan on Apr 18, 2008 7:26 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

is anyone up?

It’s 4 am on the east coast and there’s still baseball going on. the padres and rockies are locked at 1 in the 21st inning. im following at gaslamp ball. Fucking Petco.

Marty may have a shirt on, but Billy Beane just ripped his off and is squeezing his nipples. - Brendan's ukkah

by boobs on Apr 18, 2008 4:01 AM EDT   0 recs

2 errors in the 22nd

game ends with kip wells striking out glendon rusch. i think they should have pinch hit maddux.

Marty may have a shirt on, but Billy Beane just ripped his off and is squeezing his nipples. - Brendan's ukkah

by boobs on Apr 18, 2008 4:27 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Ye gods and little fishies

It really did go 22 innings.

Can you imagine giving up only 2 runs in 22 innings…and losing? Having your starting pitcher go 8 innings…and still having to wear out your bullpen?

by BubbaFan on Apr 18, 2008 5:57 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

The Denver Post

has a pretty good article about the whole thing.

Brad Hawpe and Tony Clark each took home golden sombreros. Here’s the box.

by Fat Vegas Alan on Apr 18, 2008 8:42 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

I would hate to be

the official scorekeeper at this game.

Or even the GameDay person.

by xjjeep90 on Apr 18, 2008 3:49 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

ahhhh

i just got the picture. took me a few, but i got there. very clever.

Abraham Lincoln said that if you're a racist, I will invade you with the north.

by Charlie Scrabbles on Apr 18, 2008 9:08 AM EDT   0 recs

I don't get it

but I don’t understand most black and white photography.

WHY SHOULD I CHANGE IT? HE'S THE ONE WHO SUCKS!

by Slyde on Apr 18, 2008 12:13 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

That's racist.

WHY SHOULD I CHANGE IT? HE'S THE ONE WHO SUCKS!

by Slyde on Apr 18, 2008 12:13 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

If you were too busy..

..rocking the Stone Roses back in ‘89, here is the De La reference decoded.

And now please allow me to fish for compliments. Or at least fish for feedback…

Whaddya’ll think of the content of this diary/post/story/feature? I wanted to provide a one stop shop where we we could check the starters’ recent gamelogs but I also wanted to put a little spin on their stats (by also removing each guy’s crappiest outlier inning) so that the entire post would not be nothing more than a one stop shop for the starters’ recent gamelogs. Lemme know if there’s anything else thaty you might like to see in the next 10% review. (Coming Sunday May 4th! After the Braves series. Unless you think this is a stupid waste of some SBN server space.)

by Fat Vegas Alan on Apr 18, 2008 2:43 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

jack white also believes 3 is the magic number

i think this post is awesome. i might want to see an ERA here and there, but other than that i think it’s a terrif idea

Marty may have a shirt on, but Billy Beane just ripped his off and is squeezing his nipples. - Brendan's ukkah

by boobs on Apr 18, 2008 2:47 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Great. My one boss wants to see more ERA..

..while my other boss loathes ERA.

What’s the new guy in the office to do?

What would Sam Grossman do?

by Fat Vegas Alan on Apr 18, 2008 2:50 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

BTW...

..as my boy Preston can tell ya from his kid-radio rockin’ back seat of the Town and Country, Jack Johnson goes for that same kinda magic.

And oh, Jack Johnson hearts Jack White.

by Fat Vegas Alan on Apr 18, 2008 2:56 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

You're good enough, Alan.

You’re smart enough. People like you. And your references.

I’ll chip in an agreement with boobs. I’d like to see some ERAs too.

by Brendanukkah on Apr 18, 2008 3:19 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

I didn't feel it

Did anyone get shaken awake by the earthquake this morning? My lazy ass slept right through it.

Please Note: I may be totally full of shit.

by jch24 on Apr 18, 2008 9:46 AM EDT   0 recs

Uh..That was Mrs. M. and me..a little early morning music!

4-17-2008 The Father of the chaos Theory Dies

by Madville on Apr 18, 2008 9:52 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

the dog went crazy

I just rolled over and went back to sleep. Didn’t notice it.

Bruce Bonser? Boone Bonser? Boot Bonser?BOOSE BONZER?

by Lakeman on Apr 18, 2008 9:58 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

get out while you can

the midwest is gonna split off and float out into….uh, the hudson bay, maybe?

by Dubman on Apr 18, 2008 10:04 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Felt it

it was the first time I remember being in an earthquake, and waking up from a deep sleep made it a surreal experience. I mean it, the clock was melting and elephants were turning into swans. It was surreal.

WHY SHOULD I CHANGE IT? HE'S THE ONE WHO SUCKS!

by Slyde on Apr 18, 2008 12:09 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Run support by starter

Fogg: 19R, 6.3 R/G
Volquez: 17R, 5.7 R/G
Arroyo: 12R, 4.0 R/G
Harang: 15R, 3.8 R/G
Cueto: 6R, 2.0 R/G

by rojosoto on Apr 18, 2008 10:19 AM EDT   0 recs

Interesting stat

It makes what Cueto’s done so far that much more impressive, and what Fogg’s done so far that much more miserable.

by Brendanukkah on Apr 18, 2008 10:23 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Fogg MORE miserable?

i think you need a refresher in metaphysics. that is an existential impossibility.

Abraham Lincoln said that if you're a racist, I will invade you with the north.

by Charlie Scrabbles on Apr 18, 2008 10:25 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Maybe,but...

Existentialism attempts to describe our desire to make rational ( and moral) decisions despite existing in an irrational( and amoral) universe. Unfortunately, life might be without inherent meaning (existential atheists) or it might be without a meaning we can understand (existential theists – see Kierkegaard)). Either way, the human desires for logic and immortality are futile. We are forced to define our own meanings, knowing they might be temporary. In this existence…The Individual Defines Everything. Ergo Josh Fogg can define himself as MORE miserable. I would define him as bleak and confused, with no capacity to define his own reality. The mound is the ground of his being and the ball the attempt to create rational meaning – the batter is universal chaos…right now chaos is winning the battle of definition.

4-17-2008 The Father of the chaos Theory Dies

by Madville on Apr 18, 2008 2:13 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

i disagree.

Abraham Lincoln said that if you're a racist, I will invade you with the north.

by Charlie Scrabbles on Apr 18, 2008 7:43 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Fogg & Volquez

Because of the small sample, Fogg’s average benefitted from the Reds 12-run game and Volquez from yesterday’s 9-run game.

Cueto has been getting no support. 3 runs in his debut is the best offense the Reds could muster for him.

by rojosoto on Apr 18, 2008 12:04 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

I hope Cueto gets some support Saturday.

I’ll be at the game.

Did you know, by the way, Arroyo had as many quality starts last season as did Brandon Webb?

We Are ... Marshall!

by Thundering Turtle on Apr 18, 2008 12:17 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

It's not the quantity, it's the quality

but it was both quality and quantity. Excuse me, my brain is about to eat itself.

WHY SHOULD I CHANGE IT? HE'S THE ONE WHO SUCKS!

by Slyde on Apr 18, 2008 12:19 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

The starter that wasn't

Remember how there was a clamor from certain quarters to make a trade for Erik Bedard in the offseason? The package would likely have included Jay Bruce, Homer Bailey, and/or Johnny Cueto. Well, Bedard has been injured with hip inflammation, and some people think it might be even more serious than that.

by Brendanukkah on Apr 18, 2008 11:36 AM EDT   0 recs

I saw that he was on the DL transaction

He has made two starts and recently put on the DL.
Our guys are making their 4th starts & Harang will make his 5th on Sunday.

Bedard has never (and looks like this year) won’t pitch 200 innings. So glad Krivsky didn’t sell the farm for that guy.

by rojosoto on Apr 18, 2008 12:02 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Yeah

I remember being told by the guy at Camden Chat that he wasn’t an injury risk. Not to pick on that guy because fans rarely know the whole story, but he was pushing the point that Bedard had ace level stuff. Well, stuff don’t mean shit if you aren’t pitching.

WHY SHOULD I CHANGE IT? HE'S THE ONE WHO SUCKS!

by Slyde on Apr 18, 2008 12:07 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

In his defense,

Bedard’s hip hasn’t been a problem in many years. I think a shoulder or some other arm injury has kept him from reaching 200 IP in the last few years, and that was what the Camden Chat guy was talking about.

On the bright side, R.A. Dickey gets to start.

by ken on Apr 18, 2008 1:48 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

i dont think anyone was in favor of that particular trade

i think the most some of us wanted to give up was homer, votto and a third player. Bruce was never considered by anyone on this side, and i dont think the homer+cueto deal was, either.

Marty may have a shirt on, but Billy Beane just ripped his off and is squeezing his nipples. - Brendan's ukkah

by boobs on Apr 18, 2008 1:36 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

I wasn't necessarily referring to people on this site

I seem to remember most of the clamoring for Bedard coming from folks like Fay and Daugherty. Ultimately my point is that sometimes the best moves are the ones you don’t make. And also, watching Cueto pitch makes me feel things in my man-parts. Throw in the rest of the youngsters and… Well, I ain’t saying that what those priests did was right. But I understand.

by Brendanukkah on Apr 18, 2008 1:44 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

from fay

Tonight’s lineup

Norris Hopper CF
Jeff Keppinger SS
Ken Griffey Jr. RF
Brandon Phillips 2B
Adam Dunn LF
Edwin Encarnacion 3B
Joey Votto 1B
Paul Bako C
Bronson Arroyo P

vs. RHP Ben Sheets

Hope Springs Eternal! Go Reds

by Caleb on Apr 18, 2008 3:43 PM EDT   0 recs

so votto's getting the start

against righties and lefties now? Has he won the job outright?

Marty may have a shirt on, but Billy Beane just ripped his off and is squeezing his nipples. - Brendan's ukkah

by boobs on Apr 18, 2008 3:59 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

ride him while he's hot

Hopefully Dusty keeps putting him out there everyday

Hope Springs Eternal! Go Reds

by Caleb on Apr 18, 2008 4:02 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Votto the starter.

Votto has started 6 of the last 7 games counting tonight. The non-start Keppinger played first. That’s over a week without a start from hatteberg.

by rojosoto on Apr 18, 2008 4:06 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

So Votto should be to blame for the 6 game skid...

right?

Illusions Michael. Tricks are what whores do for money...and candy.

by Steve Holt on Apr 18, 2008 4:26 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

He's not leaving Dusty much choice.

He leads the team in both batting average and OPS, his defense has been pretty stellar, and he has yet to clog the bases with a walk once this year.

by Geki on Apr 18, 2008 4:36 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

I'm down with the lineup

I’m hoping that the Brewers have taken note of Edwin’s surge, and that he provides good cover for Dunn. How many triples is Bako gonna hit tonight?

by Brendanukkah on Apr 18, 2008 4:23 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

I like it

Although I thought Votto might’a been a bit higher

Patterson, Castro, and Bako, oh my!

by chesirecat on Apr 18, 2008 3:51 PM EDT   0 recs

can't

gotta separate the lefties. You can bat righties next to each other til the cows come home. But if you bat consecutive lefties, you’ve just handed the game to the other team.

WHY SHOULD I CHANGE IT? HE'S THE ONE WHO SUCKS!

by Slyde on Apr 18, 2008 4:23 PM EDT to parent up   1 recs

Volquez: "The 'Wildcard' that turn into an 'Ace'"

This from El Día:

Vólquez está listo para para ser estelar Rojos

Cincinnati.- Mientras, la mayoría de la poca atención que reciben los Rojos de Cincinnati la acapara el novato Johnny Cueto, existe otro lanzador dominicano que está listo para impactar y saltar al estrellato esta misma temporada. 

Edinson Vólquez es el “comodín” que podría tornarse en “As” para Cincinnati en 2008.

Vólquez ayer volvió a demostrar el gran progreso que posee al maniatar a los Cachorros durante cinco entradas, con cuatro hits y una carrera para apuntarse su segunda victoria y efectividad de 1.17.

Vólquez is ready to be a Reds’ Star

While the rookie Johnny Cueto captures most of the little attention the Reds receive [in the Dominican Republic], there is another Dominican pitcher that is ready to make an impact and jump to star-hood this season. Edinson Vólquez is the "wildcard" that could turn into an "Ace" for Cincinnati in 2008. Yesterday he again demonstrated his great potential, handcuffing the Cubs for five innings, giving up four hits and a run to notch his second victory. His ERA is now 1.17.

Tanzen!

by Verka Serduchka on Apr 18, 2008 4:42 PM EDT   0 recs

typos...

should be: “wildcard that could turn into an ace” (my mistake)

should be:Volquez esta listo para ser estelar Rojos (El Día threw in an extra para for good measure)

Tanzen!

by Verka Serduchka on Apr 18, 2008 4:45 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

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