The First 10% of the Season in Review: The Starters
A long time ago, Herb Carneal or Vin Scully or some other old coot told me that aside from certain specific matchups, at any given point in a season most major league starters aren't remembering much more about their season than their three most recent starts.
Another time, my dad pointed out to me how USA Today's Sports section provides information about that day's starters' three most recent outings. (Pops tells me that this is the absolute minimum amount of information that a gambler would want to know before calling in his action.)
So you see... 3. It's the magic number. Yes, it is. It's the magic number.
And if you allow each pitcher in your favorite team's rotation to amass three starts and then stop to see how they've all done during their three respective starts, you should be about fifteen games (or five three-game series) further along than the last time you took inventory. And if you fudge the math to keep things simple (and keep things magic!) you'll find that fifteen games is about 10% of your 162-game baseball season.
So here we are. Roughly 10% of the way through the Reds' 2008 season.
How we lookin'?

Aaron Harang during this first 10% of the season: 27ip 22h 10er 7bb 21k 4hr
3/31 v AZ: 6ip 3h 2er 2bb 6k 2hr
4/5 v PHIL: 7ip 6h 2er 3bb 6k 0hr
4/10 @ MIL: 8ip 5h 1er 0bb 3k 0hr
4/15 @ CHI: 6ip 8h 5er 2bb 6k 2hr
Harang's worst inning:
bottom 5th CHI leads 3-2: Dempster flyout - Fontenot 2B - Theriot BB - Lee HR -Ramirez lineout - Fukudome 1B - DeRosa K
Harang's stats without that inning: 26ip 19h 7er 6bb 20k 3hr
Bronson Arroyo during this first 10% of the season: 15.2ip 19h 9er 5bb 14k 5hr
4/2 v AZ: 5ip 4h 2er 3bb 5k 1hr
4/7 v PHI: 5.2ip 9h 5er 0bb 6k 4hr(!)
4/12 @PIT: 5ip 6h 2er 2bb 3k 0hr
Arroyo's worst inning:
top 1st PIT at bat: Rollins HR - Victorino flyout - Utley groundout - Howard 2B - Burrell HR - Jenkins popout
Arroyo's stats without that inning: 14.2ip 16 h 6er 5bb 14k 3hr
Johnny Cueto during this first 10% of the season: 19.1ip 11h 8er 1bb(!) 24k 4hr
4/3 v AZ: 7ip 1h 1er 0bb 10k 0hr
4/8 v PHI: 6.1ip 5h 2er 0bb 8k 1hr
4/13 @PIT: 6 ip 5h 5er 1bb 6k 2hr
Cueto's worst inning:
bottom 6th PIT leads 2-0: McLouth 2B - Rivas lineout - Bay 1B - Doumit sacfly - Nady HR - Mientkiewicz flyout
Cuetos' stats without that inning: 18.1ip 8h 5er 1bb(!) 24K 3hr
Josh Fogg during the first 10% of the season: 11ip 16h 16er 5bb 9k 4hr
4/4 v PHI: 4ip 5h 6er 3bb 3k 2hr
4/9 @ MIL: 5ip 4h 1er 0bb 3k 1hr
4/16 @ CHI: 2ip 7h 9er 2bb 3k 1hr
Fogg's worst inning:
bottom 3rd CHI leads 4-1: Lee HR - Ramirez BB - Fukudome 1B - DeRosa BB - Soto 2B - Johnson sacfly - Zambrano 1B - Fontenot groundout - Theriot 1B - Lee BB - Ramirez K (after a wild pitch scores Fontenot)
Fogg's stats without that inning: 10ip 11h 10er 2bb 9k 3hr
Edinson Volquez during the first 10% of the season: 15.1ip 12h 2er(!) 9bb 16k 0hr
4/6 v PHI: 5.1ip 5h 1er 2bb 8k 0hr
4/11 @ PIT: 5ip 3h 0er 3bb 1k 0hr
4/17 @CHI: 5ip 4h 1er 4bb 7k 0hr
Volquez's worst inning:
bottom 2nd, no score, CHI at bat: Ramirez 1B - Fukudome K - DeRosa BB - Johnson 1B - Blanco K - LIlly BB - Fontenot groundout
Volquez's stats without that inning: 14.1ip 10h 1er(!) 7bb 15k 0hr
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Josh Fogg gets a bad rap.
Remove his worst inning (in which he gave up six runs) and his ERA comes all the way down to a much more respectable 9.00!
by Geki on Apr 18, 2008 2:20 AM EDT 0 recs
Shit, you can remove his worst GAME..
..and then remove the worst inning in the remaining two games and I think his ERA (4.50) is still higher than all but Arroyo’s.
by Fat Vegas Alan on
Apr 18, 2008 7:26 AM EDT
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is anyone up?
It’s 4 am on the east coast and there’s still baseball going on. the padres and rockies are locked at 1 in the 21st inning. im following at gaslamp ball. Fucking Petco.
Marty may have a shirt on, but Billy Beane just ripped his off and is squeezing his nipples. - Brendan's ukkah
by boobs on Apr 18, 2008 4:01 AM EDT 0 recs
2 errors in the 22nd
game ends with kip wells striking out glendon rusch. i think they should have pinch hit maddux.
Marty may have a shirt on, but Billy Beane just ripped his off and is squeezing his nipples. - Brendan's ukkah
by boobs on
Apr 18, 2008 4:27 AM EDT
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Ye gods and little fishies
It really did go 22 innings.
Can you imagine giving up only 2 runs in 22 innings…and losing? Having your starting pitcher go 8 innings…and still having to wear out your bullpen?
by BubbaFan on
Apr 18, 2008 5:57 AM EDT
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The Denver Post
has a pretty good article about the whole thing.
Brad Hawpe and Tony Clark each took home golden sombreros. Here’s the box.
by Fat Vegas Alan on
Apr 18, 2008 8:42 AM EDT
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I would hate to be
the official scorekeeper at this game.
Or even the GameDay person.
by xjjeep90 on
Apr 18, 2008 3:49 PM EDT
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ahhhh
i just got the picture. took me a few, but i got there. very clever.
Abraham Lincoln said that if you're a racist, I will invade you with the north.
by Charlie Scrabbles on Apr 18, 2008 9:08 AM EDT 0 recs
I don't get it
but I don’t understand most black and white photography.
WHY SHOULD I CHANGE IT? HE'S THE ONE WHO SUCKS!
by Slyde on
Apr 18, 2008 12:13 PM EDT
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That's racist.
WHY SHOULD I CHANGE IT? HE'S THE ONE WHO SUCKS!
by Slyde on
Apr 18, 2008 12:13 PM EDT
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If you were too busy..
..rocking the Stone Roses back in ‘89, here is the De La reference decoded.
And now please allow me to fish for compliments. Or at least fish for feedback…
Whaddya’ll think of the content of this diary/post/story/feature? I wanted to provide a one stop shop where we we could check the starters’ recent gamelogs but I also wanted to put a little spin on their stats (by also removing each guy’s crappiest outlier inning) so that the entire post would not be nothing more than a one stop shop for the starters’ recent gamelogs. Lemme know if there’s anything else thaty you might like to see in the next 10% review. (Coming Sunday May 4th! After the Braves series. Unless you think this is a stupid waste of some SBN server space.)
by Fat Vegas Alan on
Apr 18, 2008 2:43 PM EDT
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jack white also believes 3 is the magic number
i think this post is awesome. i might want to see an ERA here and there, but other than that i think it’s a terrif idea
Marty may have a shirt on, but Billy Beane just ripped his off and is squeezing his nipples. - Brendan's ukkah
by boobs on
Apr 18, 2008 2:47 PM EDT
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Great. My one boss wants to see more ERA..
..while my other boss loathes ERA.
What’s the new guy in the office to do?
What would Sam Grossman do?
by Fat Vegas Alan on
Apr 18, 2008 2:50 PM EDT
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BTW...
..as my boy Preston can tell ya from his kid-radio rockin’ back seat of the Town and Country, Jack Johnson goes for that same kinda magic.
And oh, Jack Johnson hearts Jack White.
by Fat Vegas Alan on
Apr 18, 2008 2:56 PM EDT
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You're good enough, Alan.
You’re smart enough. People like you. And your references.
I’ll chip in an agreement with boobs. I’d like to see some ERAs too.

by Brendanukkah on
Apr 18, 2008 3:19 PM EDT
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I didn't feel it
Did anyone get shaken awake by the earthquake this morning? My lazy ass slept right through it.
Please Note: I may be totally full of shit.
by jch24 on Apr 18, 2008 9:46 AM EDT 0 recs
Uh..That was Mrs. M. and me..a little early morning music!
4-17-2008 The Father of the chaos Theory Dies
by Madville on
Apr 18, 2008 9:52 AM EDT
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the dog went crazy
I just rolled over and went back to sleep. Didn’t notice it.
Bruce Bonser? Boone Bonser? Boot Bonser?BOOSE BONZER?
by Lakeman on
Apr 18, 2008 9:58 AM EDT
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get out while you can
the midwest is gonna split off and float out into….uh, the hudson bay, maybe?
by Dubman on
Apr 18, 2008 10:04 AM EDT
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Felt it
it was the first time I remember being in an earthquake, and waking up from a deep sleep made it a surreal experience. I mean it, the clock was melting and elephants were turning into swans. It was surreal.
WHY SHOULD I CHANGE IT? HE'S THE ONE WHO SUCKS!
by Slyde on
Apr 18, 2008 12:09 PM EDT
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Run support by starter
Fogg: 19R, 6.3 R/G
Volquez: 17R, 5.7 R/G
Arroyo: 12R, 4.0 R/G
Harang: 15R, 3.8 R/G
Cueto: 6R, 2.0 R/G
by rojosoto on Apr 18, 2008 10:19 AM EDT 0 recs
Interesting stat
It makes what Cueto’s done so far that much more impressive, and what Fogg’s done so far that much more miserable.
by Brendanukkah on
Apr 18, 2008 10:23 AM EDT
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Fogg MORE miserable?
i think you need a refresher in metaphysics. that is an existential impossibility.
Abraham Lincoln said that if you're a racist, I will invade you with the north.
by Charlie Scrabbles on
Apr 18, 2008 10:25 AM EDT
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Maybe,but...
Existentialism attempts to describe our desire to make rational ( and moral) decisions despite existing in an irrational( and amoral) universe. Unfortunately, life might be without inherent meaning (existential atheists) or it might be without a meaning we can understand (existential theists – see Kierkegaard)). Either way, the human desires for logic and immortality are futile. We are forced to define our own meanings, knowing they might be temporary. In this existence…The Individual Defines Everything. Ergo Josh Fogg can define himself as MORE miserable. I would define him as bleak and confused, with no capacity to define his own reality. The mound is the ground of his being and the ball the attempt to create rational meaning – the batter is universal chaos…right now chaos is winning the battle of definition.
4-17-2008 The Father of the chaos Theory Dies
by Madville on
Apr 18, 2008 2:13 PM EDT
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Either way,
I still can pray for rain when Fogg pitches.
We Are ... Marshall!
by Thundering Turtle on
Apr 18, 2008 2:55 PM EDT
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i disagree.
Abraham Lincoln said that if you're a racist, I will invade you with the north.
by Charlie Scrabbles on
Apr 18, 2008 7:43 PM EDT
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Fogg & Volquez
Because of the small sample, Fogg’s average benefitted from the Reds 12-run game and Volquez from yesterday’s 9-run game.
Cueto has been getting no support. 3 runs in his debut is the best offense the Reds could muster for him.
by rojosoto on
Apr 18, 2008 12:04 PM EDT
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I hope Cueto gets some support Saturday.
I’ll be at the game.
Did you know, by the way, Arroyo had as many quality starts last season as did Brandon Webb?
We Are ... Marshall!
by Thundering Turtle on
Apr 18, 2008 12:17 PM EDT
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It's not the quantity, it's the quality
but it was both quality and quantity. Excuse me, my brain is about to eat itself.
WHY SHOULD I CHANGE IT? HE'S THE ONE WHO SUCKS!
by Slyde on
Apr 18, 2008 12:19 PM EDT
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The starter that wasn't
Remember how there was a clamor from certain quarters to make a trade for Erik Bedard in the offseason? The package would likely have included Jay Bruce, Homer Bailey, and/or Johnny Cueto. Well, Bedard has been injured with hip inflammation, and some people think it might be even more serious than that.
by Brendanukkah on Apr 18, 2008 11:36 AM EDT 0 recs
I saw that he was on the DL transaction
He has made two starts and recently put on the DL.
Our guys are making their 4th starts & Harang will make his 5th on Sunday.
Bedard has never (and looks like this year) won’t pitch 200 innings. So glad Krivsky didn’t sell the farm for that guy.
by rojosoto on
Apr 18, 2008 12:02 PM EDT
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Yeah
I remember being told by the guy at Camden Chat that he wasn’t an injury risk. Not to pick on that guy because fans rarely know the whole story, but he was pushing the point that Bedard had ace level stuff. Well, stuff don’t mean shit if you aren’t pitching.
WHY SHOULD I CHANGE IT? HE'S THE ONE WHO SUCKS!
by Slyde on
Apr 18, 2008 12:07 PM EDT
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In his defense,
Bedard’s hip hasn’t been a problem in many years. I think a shoulder or some other arm injury has kept him from reaching 200 IP in the last few years, and that was what the Camden Chat guy was talking about.
On the bright side, R.A. Dickey gets to start.
by ken on
Apr 18, 2008 1:48 PM EDT
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i dont think anyone was in favor of that particular trade
i think the most some of us wanted to give up was homer, votto and a third player. Bruce was never considered by anyone on this side, and i dont think the homer+cueto deal was, either.
Marty may have a shirt on, but Billy Beane just ripped his off and is squeezing his nipples. - Brendan's ukkah
by boobs on
Apr 18, 2008 1:36 PM EDT
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I wasn't necessarily referring to people on this site
I seem to remember most of the clamoring for Bedard coming from folks like Fay and Daugherty. Ultimately my point is that sometimes the best moves are the ones you don’t make. And also, watching Cueto pitch makes me feel things in my man-parts. Throw in the rest of the youngsters and… Well, I ain’t saying that what those priests did was right. But I understand.
by Brendanukkah on
Apr 18, 2008 1:44 PM EDT
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I personally get this thrill up my leg.
At least it wasn't Grady Little.
by Paul Householder on
Apr 18, 2008 2:33 PM EDT
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from fay
Tonight’s lineup
Norris Hopper CF
Jeff Keppinger SS
Ken Griffey Jr. RF
Brandon Phillips 2B
Adam Dunn LF
Edwin Encarnacion 3B
Joey Votto 1B
Paul Bako C
Bronson Arroyo P
vs. RHP Ben Sheets
Hope Springs Eternal! Go Reds
by Caleb on Apr 18, 2008 3:43 PM EDT 0 recs
so votto's getting the start
against righties and lefties now? Has he won the job outright?
Marty may have a shirt on, but Billy Beane just ripped his off and is squeezing his nipples. - Brendan's ukkah
by boobs on
Apr 18, 2008 3:59 PM EDT
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ride him while he's hot
Hopefully Dusty keeps putting him out there everyday
Hope Springs Eternal! Go Reds
by Caleb on
Apr 18, 2008 4:02 PM EDT
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Votto the starter.
Votto has started 6 of the last 7 games counting tonight. The non-start Keppinger played first. That’s over a week without a start from hatteberg.
by rojosoto on
Apr 18, 2008 4:06 PM EDT
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So Votto should be to blame for the 6 game skid...
right?
Illusions Michael. Tricks are what whores do for money...and candy.
by Steve Holt on
Apr 18, 2008 4:26 PM EDT
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He's not leaving Dusty much choice.
He leads the team in both batting average and OPS, his defense has been pretty stellar, and he has yet to clog the bases with a walk once this year.
by Geki on
Apr 18, 2008 4:36 PM EDT
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I'm down with the lineup
I’m hoping that the Brewers have taken note of Edwin’s surge, and that he provides good cover for Dunn. How many triples is Bako gonna hit tonight?
by Brendanukkah on
Apr 18, 2008 4:23 PM EDT
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I like it
Although I thought Votto might’a been a bit higher
Patterson, Castro, and Bako, oh my!
by chesirecat on Apr 18, 2008 3:51 PM EDT 0 recs
can't
gotta separate the lefties. You can bat righties next to each other til the cows come home. But if you bat consecutive lefties, you’ve just handed the game to the other team.
WHY SHOULD I CHANGE IT? HE'S THE ONE WHO SUCKS!
by Slyde on
Apr 18, 2008 4:23 PM EDT
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Volquez: "The 'Wildcard' that turn into an 'Ace'"
This from El Día:
Vólquez está listo para para ser estelar RojosCincinnati.- Mientras, la mayoría de la poca atención que reciben los Rojos de Cincinnati la acapara el novato Johnny Cueto, existe otro lanzador dominicano que está listo para impactar y saltar al estrellato esta misma temporada. Edinson Vólquez es el “comodín” que podría tornarse en “As” para Cincinnati en 2008. Vólquez ayer volvió a demostrar el gran progreso que posee al maniatar a los Cachorros durante cinco entradas, con cuatro hits y una carrera para apuntarse su segunda victoria y efectividad de 1.17.
Vólquez is ready to be a Reds’ StarWhile the rookie Johnny Cueto captures most of the little attention the Reds receive [in the Dominican Republic], there is another Dominican pitcher that is ready to make an impact and jump to star-hood this season. Edinson Vólquez is the "wildcard" that could turn into an "Ace" for Cincinnati in 2008. Yesterday he again demonstrated his great potential, handcuffing the Cubs for five innings, giving up four hits and a run to notch his second victory. His ERA is now 1.17.
Tanzen!
by Verka Serduchka on Apr 18, 2008 4:42 PM EDT 0 recs
typos...
should be: “wildcard that could turn into an ace” (my mistake)
should be:Volquez esta listo para ser estelar Rojos (El Día threw in an extra para for good measure)
Tanzen!
by Verka Serduchka on
Apr 18, 2008 4:45 PM EDT
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He also will route Col. Montoya and the federales and return to the villagers before the rainy season!
Viva, viva el Volquez! El Volquez viva!
by Brendanukkah on
Apr 18, 2008 4:45 PM EDT
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