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Off Day Quick Hits

Yachtrock01_tiny by Slyde on in News

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David Kohl/AP

It's a much needed off day, for both the team and the fans. 

  • Justin has done some mathy examinations of the Reds lineup.  The results are interesting, though a bit hard to follow (unless you understand Markov Chains).  If you can follow the results, be sure to read the comments as MGL pops in with his own projections.  Generally lineup order does not make a significant difference (as much as who is in the lineup), but it's still fun to see how things might be improved by some fiddling.
  • If you haven't checked out Doug Gray's Reds Pitch F/X site, you should.  You'll learn things like, as of Friday, Corey Patterson had only swung and missed 4 times this year.  That's like Jeff Keppinger type performance.
  • Still confused as to what happened to the Reds's bats this season? It looks like it was all Juan Castro's fault.
  • Um, Gary Majewski kinda sucks.
  • Frank Thomas may be the most selfish baseball player in the history of selfish baseball players.  I know you are wondering, so I'll tell you that Adam Dunn has 2 sacrifice hits in his career.  EdE has the highest number of PAs for an active Reds player without a sacrifice hit.  Selfish.  Send him down! :)
  • This hit a little too close to home after this weekend.  But it's still funny.
  • If you are a fan of baseball, science, and publicly financed broadcasting, this is right up your alley.  They even try to explain Cubs fans scientifically.  My theory is that there is a chemical in Old Style that permanently destroys a person's ability to not root for suckiness.
  • I'm not an MLB media user anymore (used to have Gameday Audio), but it seems to me there is a lot of backlash with the way MLB.tv is doing things this year.  Coupled with their attempts to control all of baseball on the internet, it's becoming another disappointing set of PR moves by MLB.  I don't understand the idea of limiting a fans ability to enjoy the game.  Seems counter-productive to me.
  • Anybody notice that Kyle Lohse has only allowed 2 runs over his first 17.1 innings so far this year?  He's looking like a steal right now for the Cardinals.  Then again, he looked pretty good after 4 starts for the Reds last year.

Anything else that I missed?

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If you're looking for a reason to be somehow remain optimistic about Majewski

I have Baseball Prospectus going back a few years and when I read Majewski's "comparables" in this year's edition I thought, "Wow. Who are these guys?" And for some reason I thought I remembered the 2007 edition had Danny Graves listed as one. So I went back and checked (yes, Graves was listed as a comparable last year) and I discovered that for two years in a row, Majewski has been compared to Joe Grahe who was one of the Angels closers back when the Angels were in no-questions-asked California and Sharon Stone was smokin' and her vajayjay was on the silver screen bigger than my head.

So there's that.

Red Reporters, when viewing the front page, don't forget to scroll down and look for "Features" on your left and "Fanposts" on your right. Don't get stuck in the middle!

by Fat Vegas Alan on Apr 14, 2008 11:09 AM EDT   0 recs

Even though this past series was

depressing. I did like the way that Votto is starting to put the bat on the ball. He had a few nice clutch hits and even some of the outs he was making were coming on hard hit balls which was not the case the first two series.

by OURob on Apr 14, 2008 12:12 PM EDT   0 recs

I think I'm declaring myself

a free agent to the Reds. I am a right handed hitter that can play first base or the outfield, and hit .690 with a OPS of 1.627 last year in my Co-Ed Softball league. Surely, I can hit lefties in the Majors, Right? Ok, maybe not.

Seriously, I wonder why nobody is calling for Jacoby's head yet. Usually a offense like this that is way underperforming on a team getting above-average pitching means the hitting coach gets canned pretty quickly.

Find me on MySpace- http://www.myspace.com/mixfmkyle

by MixFMKyle on Apr 14, 2008 1:07 PM EDT   0 recs

within the first 13 games?

Marty may have a shirt on, but Billy Beane just ripped his off and is squeezing his nipples. - Brendan's ukkah

by boobs on Apr 14, 2008 1:20 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

I didn't mean he should be fired

I meant, I am suprised people are not calling for his head yet. I think at the end of April last year we were in the same funk and people were already calling for him to be fired then.

Find me on MySpace- http://www.myspace.com/mixfmkyle

by MixFMKyle on Apr 14, 2008 1:35 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

really?

after 13 games, they were calling for him to be fired? I know the masses are fickle, but that fickle?

Marty may have a shirt on, but Billy Beane just ripped his off and is squeezing his nipples. - Brendan's ukkah

by boobs on Apr 14, 2008 1:54 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

I'm not really a fan of Jacoby

But he's still under Mark Berry on my list of Reds Coaches To Be Fired.

by Brendanukkah on Apr 14, 2008 2:02 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

From the outside

it's very hard to tell which skill coaches are and aren't doing their jobs effectively, but Jacoby has to be under srutiny--if only because the Reds' 2 most important RH hitters are just simply off-balance when they swing, esp. at pitches on the outer half of the plate.

I know Jacoby can't hit for them, but either he's not trying to help them or he's not getting through to them. A problem either way.

I've got a plan and it's as hot as my pants...

by Man Mountain on Apr 14, 2008 2:11 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Brook

I looked up Jacoby's stats because I thought I remembered that he was a horrible career hitter, but I was wrong. I did find one interesting thing, though. He was a career .270/.334/.405/.739 hitter but had one outrageous season: 1987--.300/.387/.541/.928. He had 32 homers that year, more than a quarter of his career total and 12 more than his next-best season. While that came in his 27-year-old season, I think it's much more fun to speculate that he was on the shit.

Marty may have a shirt on, but Billy Beane just ripped his off and is squeezing his nipples. - Brendan's ukkah

by boobs on Apr 14, 2008 2:22 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Don't forget

1987 was the year when everyone had a career high in HR. Juiced balls were the rumor. Hell, Wade Boggs had 24 homers in '87.

Please Note: I may be totally full of shit.

by jch24 on Apr 14, 2008 2:29 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Rumors

How many of those juiced balls are smaller now then they were before 1987?

by rojosoto on Apr 14, 2008 2:36 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Especially in Cleveland

They had 3 players hit 30+ HRs in 1987 after have no one do it 1985 and 1986 and then no one again in 1988. Hell, Brett Butler hit 9 that year. Clearly something was out of whack!

WHY SHOULD I CHANGE IT? HE'S THE ONE WHO SUCKS!

by Slyde on Apr 14, 2008 2:36 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

interesting

i was unawares of such rumors.. maybe because i was 4 at the time :)

Marty may have a shirt on, but Billy Beane just ripped his off and is squeezing his nipples. - Brendan's ukkah

by boobs on Apr 14, 2008 2:38 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

also

i know his career totals do not bear it out, but i saw wade boggs hit the facade in right field at old tiger stadium in batting practice, which i think was only done 2 or 3 times in real games.

Marty may have a shirt on, but Billy Beane just ripped his off and is squeezing his nipples. - Brendan's ukkah

by boobs on Apr 14, 2008 2:39 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Boggs said on Baseball Tonight yesterday

that he could have been more of a home run hitter, but his form of hitting required him to hit the ball deeper in the zone (called himself a recognition hitter). He said he was more concerned about not popping out to the infield, or something like that.

WHY SHOULD I CHANGE IT? HE'S THE ONE WHO SUCKS!

by Slyde on Apr 14, 2008 2:44 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Ouch

That hurts a little. At least I was still in Little League I guess.

Please Note: I may be totally full of shit.

by jch24 on Apr 14, 2008 3:40 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

32 HR, 69 RBI

Jacoby was so not clutch. I think Poz has mockingly remarked about this before.

It was one of the few 30+ HR seasons with less than 70 RBIs.

by ken on Apr 14, 2008 3:24 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

As I recall

This was a function of hitting behind horrible out machines like Joe Carter, Mel Hall, and Corey Snyder.

by LooseCannon on Apr 14, 2008 5:28 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Hitting coach

I wonder if he's even trying to coach them. I read one interview with Mattingly when A-Rod was struggling. He basically said that he didn't try to give stars like A-Rod and Giambi advice, unless they came to him and asked. He felt they knew what they were doing, and he might do more harm than good trying to mess with their swings.

David Duchovny, why won't you love me?

by BubbaFan on Apr 14, 2008 2:26 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Interesting

considering the Yankees assistant to the traveling secretary used to give Mattingly advice.

I had a little conversation today with Mr Don Mattingly - he's the first base man. We talked about his new batting stance, you know, I'm not crazy about it, but I said , "Donny, go with it 'till it stops workin'." Donny baseball. He's a helluva guy.

by Red Menace on Apr 14, 2008 2:53 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Hope for MLB media?

Starting next year you'll be able to watch mlb.tv on Yahoo. This has to be considered good news, given all of the complaints I've seen about mlb.tv. I'm a little surprised I haven't seen this discussed more around the interwebs.

by ken on Apr 14, 2008 1:11 PM EDT   0 recs

Before the Sweep

We were # 10 in the Power Rankings on ESPN.com

They had the Cubs at #2?

And until last night, we were the only team to beat the D-Backs.

Find me on MySpace- http://www.myspace.com/mixfmkyle

by MixFMKyle on Apr 14, 2008 1:39 PM EDT   0 recs

Power Rankings are stupid

Other then Peter Gammons and Rob Neyer who really knows anything about baseball that works for ESPN anyway.

Norris Hopper's #1 fan!!!

by Zach K on Apr 15, 2008 8:10 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Happy Monday

This is truly an aside but I thought that I would wish my fellow music snobs a happy Monday with this little gem. Do not fear, it's a loving gesture.

I'm thirsty.

by Pops Daniels on Apr 14, 2008 2:34 PM EDT   0 recs

Nick Cave

One thing that C. Trent and I ever agreed on was the general badassery of Nick's Grinderman album. Top drawer stuff.

As for the Happy Mondays, I'd never even heard of them before seeing "24 Hour Party People," and the limited stuff I've heard from them since makes me wonder how anyone tagged Shaun Ryder with a "genius" label.

by Brendanukkah on Apr 14, 2008 2:45 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Agreed

Grinderman is sublime. And I just got the Gutter Twins record. I'm smitten with it.

I'm thirsty.

by Pops Daniels on Apr 14, 2008 2:47 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Yeah, I've been listening to that too

I'm a Dulli fan in general, and this fits pretty well. It's basically what you'd expect from a Dulli-Lanegan teamup (smoldering, sexy, a little desperate, kinda evil), although I could have gone for a tad more rocking out. I give it a thumbs up, though.

by Brendanukkah on Apr 14, 2008 2:49 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Yep, more of Idle Hands type rockin would have been welcome.

I'm thirsty.

by Pops Daniels on Apr 14, 2008 2:53 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Oh, I forgot

the "happy monday" thing was coincidental. That band is oh so dismissive niche UK shite. Not my thing either. I should have written "Happy Day Before the Cubs Get an Ass-Whuppin'"

I'm thirsty.

by Pops Daniels on Apr 14, 2008 3:00 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Other new stuff

I'm going to pick up the new Breeders and Black Keys albums after work. Haven't heard anything off of either of them. Does anybody have any reactions?

by Brendanukkah on Apr 14, 2008 3:04 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Have only read reviews for both, but I did an i-tunes preview for the Black Keys record and there's some pretty tasty stuff there. May have to pick that one up as well. And speaking of Nick Cave, his new record came out on Tuesday. I'm falling behind on all kinds of shit.

I'm thirsty.

by Pops Daniels on Apr 14, 2008 3:19 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

just heard a song from the black keys album

on my way home from work. sounded like their old stuff, which is certainly no knock. NPR cut the song off 3/4 of the way in, of course, but what i heard of it i was pleased. dude's are harsh.

Abraham Lincoln said that if you're a racist, I will invade you with the north.

by Charlie Scrabbles on Apr 14, 2008 3:55 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

great

i have limewire open. viva la free music.

2008 NL Central Champs!

by Daedalus on Apr 14, 2008 7:31 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

don't worry

i always use the wireless from either a public place or steal it from the neighbors...

wirfi is like the robin hood of the new millennium.

2008 NL Central Champs!

by Daedalus on Apr 14, 2008 8:04 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

btw

bk coming to 930 may 12-13 fyi

2008 NL Central Champs!

by Daedalus on Apr 14, 2008 8:18 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Yeah, my roomates are going

I may try to go, but I'm also intrigued by the Drive-By Truckers who will be there the two days before, and Dizzee Rascal.

by Brendanukkah on Apr 14, 2008 8:28 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

The Dirtbombs!

They're family friends!

Patterson, Castro, and Bako, oh my!

by chesirecat on Apr 14, 2008 10:48 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Yeah?

Mick, or some of the others in the band? I just saw them play a week ago, and it was probably the most perfect rock show I've seen.

by Brendanukkah on Apr 14, 2008 10:59 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

agreed

If you're really concerned about people using your wi-fi use that new WPA encryption. If you use the old WEP I'mma drink your milkshake.

by Red Menace on Apr 14, 2008 8:52 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

you drink it up?

In the end, life and business are about human connections. And computers are about trying to murder you in a lake. And to me the choice is easy.

by chandrathan on Apr 14, 2008 9:01 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Markov

I'm surprised that folks are finding it hard to understand, as I tried to make it readable... One of the nice things about Markov Chains is that there aren't any fancy-dancy equations that you have to penetrate through. It's just a very simple iterative process considering every possible outcome of every plate appearance and stringing all of those possibilities together in long, branching chains of events. Furthermore, even if you don't understand it, you can just treat it as a baseball simulation and move on.

The results are pretty straightforward too--input a lineup, the Markov spits out the average runs scored per game. It also spits out an indication of how many times (on average) a hitter led off an inning of a game.

As for MGL's sim results, it's hard to know what to make of them given that he used a different set of projections. I'm going to use his inputs tonight and see if the results better match his.
-j

On Baseball and the Reds

by JinAZ on Apr 14, 2008 2:35 PM EDT   0 recs

readability

Then again, I've been in dissertation writing mode for the past month, which might mean that everything I write these days is impenetrable. :) -j

On Baseball and the Reds

by JinAZ on Apr 14, 2008 2:36 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

I'm just bitter still because my lineup didn't turn out to be very good

Therefore it's your system's fault. :)

And I didn't mean to imply that MGL's system was any better. I'm intrigued whenever anybody brings a different set of data to the table on a discussion like that and that's all I meant by mentioning his comment. It adds more layers to the discussion, and layers are good.

WHY SHOULD I CHANGE IT? HE'S THE ONE WHO SUCKS!

by Slyde on Apr 14, 2008 2:42 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

youre right

your lineups were shitty

Marty may have a shirt on, but Billy Beane just ripped his off and is squeezing his nipples. - Brendan's ukkah

by boobs on Apr 14, 2008 2:57 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

MGL's sim

Oh, I totally agree--that's why I encouraged him to do the sims. His system may indeed be better, but if nothing else it's different. And the fact that it's so different from the Markov results is a bit unnerving, given that his sim tends to be closer to historical work on lineups.

It's going to be interesting to see what the results look like when I use his projections. -j

On Baseball and the Reds

by JinAZ on Apr 14, 2008 4:00 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

note:

to all those in the beer league: I've propsed a rash of trades, most of which are favorable to you guys. please take a look and see if i offered you one, and if you don't like the trade make a counter offer. thanks. (end of transmission)

Marty may have a shirt on, but Billy Beane just ripped his off and is squeezing his nipples. - Brendan's ukkah

by boobs on Apr 14, 2008 3:48 PM EDT   0 recs

Yay!!!

I got Pacman!

Makin' it rain!

In the end, life and business are about human connections. And computers are about trying to murder you in a lake. And to me the choice is easy.

by chandrathan on Apr 14, 2008 8:32 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

still waiting for four others

ash, snohio, zach and madville. check your teams.

Marty may have a shirt on, but Billy Beane just ripped his off and is squeezing his nipples. - Brendan's ukkah

by boobs on Apr 14, 2008 9:02 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

that comment's gonna get flagged.

In the end, life and business are about human connections. And computers are about trying to murder you in a lake. And to me the choice is easy.

by chandrathan on Apr 14, 2008 10:03 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

For the first time this year I started digging through some stats

And I came across this beaut:
2008 Reds with the bases loaded: 17 PAs, 5 Runs, .063/.059/.063. You could say the bounces haven't gone their way as their BABIP is .071. And their situational OPS+? -64. Yes, that's a negative sign before that number. Awesome.

Oh, and our new advertisement is up on the 2008 Reds Page. We had to go with option #2 as without the context of the story, Sean felt that the Farney ad was a bit too salacious for his site.

WHY SHOULD I CHANGE IT? HE'S THE ONE WHO SUCKS!

by Slyde on Apr 14, 2008 5:09 PM EDT   0 recs

congrats to rm

this is a callout to brendan to step up up your damn game

Marty may have a shirt on, but Billy Beane just ripped his off and is squeezing his nipples. - Brendan's ukkah

by boobs on Apr 14, 2008 5:15 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Pssh

I blame the new format.

by Brendanukkah on Apr 14, 2008 5:34 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Fine

But just to keep the legal department off our backs, we are being true in our advertising, right?

The season doesn't start until the Cincinnati Reds take the field! Reclaim The Opener!!

by TheC on Apr 14, 2008 5:25 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

boooooo mine was better.

you bastards and your damn RR inner circle...i feel like this is a swanky NY country club and im woody allen.

Abraham Lincoln said that if you're a racist, I will invade you with the north.

by Charlie Scrabbles on Apr 14, 2008 5:26 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

i liked yours

("RedReporter": the greatest Justin Timberlake fansite on the web.") But we only looked at the ones with the most recs, so that was among just 4 or 5 of them. Yours was a couple recs short of green.

Marty may have a shirt on, but Billy Beane just ripped his off and is squeezing his nipples. - Brendan's ukkah

by boobs on Apr 14, 2008 5:37 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

whatevs

i shall have my vengence, in this life or the next!

Abraham Lincoln said that if you're a racist, I will invade you with the north.

by Charlie Scrabbles on Apr 14, 2008 6:13 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

I am not too woried about it though

I’m surprised we are 6-7 and we have really gotten nothing out of our 3-6 hitters…BP has made lots of outs this season but has been solid I guess. I expect the bullpen however to come back to normal bad form after April though.

Norris Hopper's #1 fan!!!

by Zach K on Apr 15, 2008 8:13 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Gonzo still out?

we need another right handed bat

Hope Springs Eternal! Go Reds

by Caleb on Apr 14, 2008 6:39 PM EDT   0 recs

they're still there

but you have to use google to search for specific comments. just put "site:redreporter.com" at the start of your google query. that's the best way I can find right now.

WHY SHOULD I CHANGE IT? HE'S THE ONE WHO SUCKS!

by Slyde on Apr 14, 2008 8:20 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

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