Game 10 wrap, Reds win 4-1

by boobs on Apr 10, 2008 3:38 PM EDT

Al Behrman/AP

Another beaut from the staff. Harang had an excellent game, tallying (by my count) a game score of 71. Eight innings, five hits, one run, three strikeouts, no walks. And a perfect outing from Cordero. The pitching the past two weeks has been a lot of fun to watch and has made the games much less stressful.

The only anxiety has been wondering whether the bats will heat up. That seems to be happening. After the first four innings today the hitters had a lot to say, and we were one hit away from breaking the game wide open in the seventh. Still, four runs seemed ample at the time, so Griffey's double play didn't sting too bad.

Hitters 5 through 8 were 7 for 13. The top of the order was 0 for 16. It doesn't really matter which guys are hitting as long as some of the guys are hitting. With the surprises from Patterson and Bako so far this season, that's been a little easier to do, even though Dunn, Encarnacion and Hatteberg are batting .172, .148 and .211, respectively.

Loved the fake bunt by Harang in the seventh. Every time we want to bunt, we should do that instead.

It's Edinson vs. Paul Maholm tomorrow. Sounds great to me.

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Winning series

It seems a lot easier to win series when 2 out of every 3 starts is a good one. Why haven't they been doing that all along?

by rojosoto on Apr 10, 2008 3:42 PM EDT 0 recs

3 out of 3 this series

Just no offense in game 1. We were one big hit away from sweeping this series.

The season doesn't start until the Cincinnati Reds take the field! Reclaim The Opener!!

by TheC on Apr 10, 2008 4:56 PM EDT up 0 recs

And

Zoot.

I'm thirsty.

by Pops Daniels on Apr 10, 2008 3:47 PM EDT 0 recs

is it outlandish

to think that 6-4 seems about right for this team? That is, that we should be winning about 60 percent of our games? I know it's way early, but I feel like the bullpen is dramatically better as is the rotation, and if a few of the bats come around this could be a team with a .600 winning percentage. The projections certainly don't bear that out, but I could see it. (Note: .600 is a 97-win team)

Marty may have a shirt on, but Billy Beane just ripped his off and is squeezing his nipples. - Brendan's ukkah

by boobs on Apr 10, 2008 3:48 PM EDT 0 recs

I think a .500 team is more likely

They'll be outrageously lucky if they can win 90 games. 85 wins isn't outlandish, but I'd still put them around .500. The pitching will slump at some point, but hopefully it won't hurt too bad because the offense will have picked up their game by then.

By the way, the Reds have 6 starts with a game score over 60 this year. Only the Padres have more.

WHY SHOULD I CHANGE IT? HE'S THE ONE WHO SUCKS!

by Slyde on Apr 10, 2008 3:52 PM EDT up 0 recs

And all of the Padres' games have come at home or against San Francisco

while all of the Reds starts have come in hitters parks against some quality offenses.

So, YAY!

WHY SHOULD I CHANGE IT? HE'S THE ONE WHO SUCKS!

by Slyde on Apr 10, 2008 3:54 PM EDT up 0 recs

I know it's been said here at least twice..

..but it bears (more) repeating- the Reds are winning and winning against good teams.

(But I think last year they may have been at or better than .500 against winning teams.)

Red Reporter OWNS BaseballReference.com

by Fat Vegas Alan on Apr 10, 2008 4:00 PM EDT up 0 recs

if we set the over-under at 85 wins

which i realize is very high, i would take the over.

Marty may have a shirt on, but Billy Beane just ripped his off and is squeezing his nipples. - Brendan's ukkah

by boobs on Apr 10, 2008 4:03 PM EDT up 0 recs

I hope you're right

And I'll be rooting for you to be right.

WHY SHOULD I CHANGE IT? HE'S THE ONE WHO SUCKS!

by Slyde on Apr 10, 2008 4:09 PM EDT up 0 recs

let's not be sad about 85 wins!

I'd take the under on 85, but not a lot under. And, hey, that's pretty exciting! It's exciting for two reasons:
1) It's a lot better than this team has been recently, and
2) This wouldn't be a Giants/Marlins 85 wins, where you know that this year is your one chance before all your players either get dumped or start getting Social Security.

I'd much rather hope for 82-83 wins, and be happy about the season outcome, than get myself expected 95, only to be disappointed by an 88 win season.

I will take next year for more wins than this year, and that's the best part!

by bbjones on Apr 10, 2008 6:43 PM EDT up 0 recs

i will say

that hoping for 95 wins does not mean i would be unhappy with 88. im just tired of always being told i need to temper my optimism. fuck that. im going to hope against all hope that the reds win 97 games. if they only win 75, so be it. If they win 82, i'll be ecstatic for our first winning season in nine years. anything more than that is grave, babe.

Marty may have a shirt on, but Billy Beane just ripped his off and is squeezing his nipples. - Brendan's ukkah

by boobs on Apr 10, 2008 7:04 PM EDT up 0 recs

I, on the other hand, like 69.

Coutlangus does too.

At least it wasn't Grady Little.

by Paul Householder on Apr 10, 2008 8:43 PM EDT up 0 recs

I disagree, slightly.

Yes, I think we'll be lucky to hit 90 wins, especially based on just about everybody's 80-84 win projections. But, as I think BP has noted once or twice, if any team is a decent bet to beat their projected win total, it's a team with the amount of (relatively-) unknown quantities the Reds potentially have--Edinson, Cueto, Votto, and probably Bailey and Bruce--these players are harder to project than guys that have been around a while. So, yes, we'll be lucky to outplay our projections, but not as outrageously lucky as it might initially appear.

by bparsonst on Apr 10, 2008 4:05 PM EDT up 0 recs

Well, I would think that having all of those guys contribute significantly would be considered being outrageously lucky

And I'm not saying that 90 wins can't happen, just that a lot of things have to go the Reds way for them to get there. And it is more of a possibility than any team they've had in the 5 or 6 years, that's for sure.

WHY SHOULD I CHANGE IT? HE'S THE ONE WHO SUCKS!

by Slyde on Apr 10, 2008 4:09 PM EDT up 0 recs

I'm not saying we can't talk about 85 wins but here's a list of twelve not entirely improbable things that may yet occur:

1. Arroyo remains crappy.
2. Griffey goes on the DL.
3. Volquez and/or Cueto return to earth.
4. Patterson returns to earth.
5. Bailey does not develop in Louisville and does not contribute in Cincinnati.
6. Bruce does not develop (to FistPants' liking) in Louisville and does not contribute in CIncinnati.
7. Votto does not contribute and Hatteberg returns to earth (from his 2007 position in the upper atmosphere).
8. Weathers remains crappy.
9. Burton returns to earth.
10. The #3 catcher starts hitting like a #4 catcher long before the #1 catcher can return to assume those duties.
11. Edwin doesn't develop.
12. An unforeseen (ie: non-Griffey) injury (eg: Phillips?)

There are some doozies here and I don't think we can consider any of them out of the realm of possibilities. Place them in order of concern.

Any others?

Red Reporter OWNS BaseballReference.com

by Fat Vegas Alan on Apr 10, 2008 4:23 PM EDT up 0 recs

The point of all of this is

that there is still a lot of season to be played. And damn, it feels go to know that 85 wins isn't a ridiculous conversation, even this early in the season.

WHY SHOULD I CHANGE IT? HE'S THE ONE WHO SUCKS!

by Slyde on Apr 10, 2008 4:26 PM EDT up 0 recs

Oh, I know what the point is.

The point is you and HAL miscalculated your favorite team's win expectancy and now you're scurrying around your mom's basement trying to lube up your flux capacitor and recalculate your QWERTY charts before Paul Daugherty recieves a copy of your e-newsletter and calls you out, radio boy.

Red Reporter OWNS BaseballReference.com

by Fat Vegas Alan on Apr 10, 2008 4:36 PM EDT up 1 recs

Yes Mr. Vegas

I'm concerned about the AntiClog, I'm concerned that somehow Mike Stinkton will return and I'm concerned that Gonzo gets his job back and Kepp gets the bench. On the other hand, there is no reason that this team, if healthy, can't continue to compete. 83 games was an earlier prediction of mine (I think) - It takes good pitching, good relief and timely hitting...it could happen.

I love Chaos like Dusty loves VPness

by Madville on Apr 10, 2008 4:34 PM EDT up 0 recs

stanton was DFAed

Marty may have a shirt on, but Billy Beane just ripped his off and is squeezing his nipples. - Brendan's ukkah

by boobs on Apr 10, 2008 4:48 PM EDT up 0 recs

Have they released him yet?

by Brian B on Apr 10, 2008 9:44 PM EDT up 0 recs

no

i havent heard whats to become of him. it's been more than 10 days, right?

Marty may have a shirt on, but Billy Beane just ripped his off and is squeezing his nipples. - Brendan's ukkah

by boobs on Apr 10, 2008 9:48 PM EDT up 0 recs

maybe he was immediatly released

he was officially DFA'ed on opening day, so yesterday would have marked 10 days.

The Dusty Path to the World Series!*

*Note this is not an endorsment of Dusty Baker.

by justin007000 on Apr 10, 2008 9:53 PM EDT up 0 recs

1. Bring up Belisle.
2. Bring up Bruce.
3. This is likely to happen. But I'm holding out hope that they run hot for long enough to keep us in contention.
4. This will happen. But so will Dunn, Edwin, Votto/Hatte regressing to their mean, which is much better.
5. So what. He's not here now.
6. So what. He's not here now. This is only an issue if No. 2 also happens.
7. Votto is not contributing now, and neither is Fratteberg,
8. That's what Cordero's for.
9. I expect this to happen, given his scary low .233 BABIP from last season. But I think Roenicke can provide some late-season thunder, and maybe Brower and some of the other flamethrowers in the minors.
10. Ross is coming back. He's certainly not an offensive fix-all, but he will be better than he was last season. He's guaranteed to hit at least 15 homers, too.
11. Edwin isn't hitting real well right now, save a couple clutch hits, and we're doing OK. Besides, Sea Bass is coming back, so if Edwin is still hitting .200 in late June, we've got other options.
12. This could happen to us. It could also happen to anybody else and be beneficial to us.

I know I do this every year, but I'm not going to apologize for it. Baseball's way more fun if you're overly optimistic than if you're always waiting for things to go wrong. 2006 was a blast all year, and 2007 sucked ass. Until the Reds are out of contention, I'm going to assume they're going to the playoffs and will be one of the best teams there.

Marty may have a shirt on, but Billy Beane just ripped his off and is squeezing his nipples. - Brendan's ukkah

by boobs on Apr 10, 2008 4:48 PM EDT up 1 recs

Twelve things

1, 3, 5. Lumped together, I think it's unlikely that all of these things go against the Reds. Throw Belisle in the mix, and you really only need 2-3 of those 5 pitchers to perform above average to break 85 wins.
2. Griffey played in 144 games last year. I don't think a DL trip, especially a lengthy one, is a given for him any more.
4, 10. These guys hitting so well is currently balanced by Dunn, Encarnacion, and the 1st base slot not hittingso well. Patterson/Bako will come back to earth, but Dunn and team's bats will wake up.
6 Wouldn't really impact the major league team this year, unless there are OF injuries at the major league level.
7. One or the other will hit.
8, 9. I think the team has enough depth at the major league and minor league rosters, that if one or both of these guys fall off, the team won't be hurt all season long.
12. Unforeseen injury. This isn't more or less likely to happen to the Reds than anyone else.

by rojosoto on Apr 10, 2008 4:57 PM EDT up 0 recs

2. Griffey played in 144 games last year. I don't think a DL trip, especially a lengthy one, is a given for him any more.

I think he and the Reds were lucky last year. He is an old man with a body being held togeather a by a splint and wishful thinking. At his age you can't make that statement. What makes him different now than say 2004?

The Dusty Path to the World Series!*

*Note this is not an endorsment of Dusty Baker.

by justin007000 on Apr 10, 2008 5:00 PM EDT up 0 recs

Since 2004

128 games - 2005
109 games - 2006
144 games - 2007

by rojosoto on Apr 10, 2008 5:01 PM EDT up 0 recs

I hope you are right but have to disagree

Patterson and Bako are not going to play like All-Stars all season long and we can't be too sure of the two younger pitchers being stars just quite yet. I still say the Reds are a 70-75 win team but who knows that might enough to win the NL Central this season!

Norris Hopper's #1 fan!!!

by Zach K on Apr 10, 2008 4:42 PM EDT up 0 recs

97 wins? Nope

But I do think there's a real chance this team can win 87-89 games and the division.

Please Note: I may be totally full of shit.

by jch24 on Apr 10, 2008 4:05 PM EDT up 0 recs

i think this team will slow down in the second half

I am guessing as the innings begin to pile up for Cueto and Volquez their performances will drop off. Cueto pitched in Winter Ball, and EV has never pitched a full season in the Majors. Volquez threw 174 innings between his three minor league stops and the Majors, so I am hoping he can throw between 190-200 innings. I would almost want to shut down Cueto regardless in September simply because of the 207 innings he threw last year. I would much rather see the Reds as a real post season power in 2009, than in a race to win a weak division in 2008.

The Dusty Path to the World Series!*

*Note this is not an endorsment of Dusty Baker.

by justin007000 on Apr 10, 2008 4:15 PM EDT up 0 recs

Who you calling "weak"?

Four teams over .500

No other division has three.

Red Reporter OWNS BaseballReference.com

by Fat Vegas Alan on Apr 10, 2008 4:27 PM EDT up 0 recs

Cueto - 207 IP?

Where did you get that? Are you counting winter ball? Without looking again I thought he had around 160 IP in the minors last year.

by ken on Apr 10, 2008 4:28 PM EDT up 0 recs

i am counting winterball

The Dusty Path to the World Series!*

*Note this is not an endorsment of Dusty Baker.

by justin007000 on Apr 10, 2008 4:34 PM EDT up 0 recs

Firstly,

we KNOW you go ape-shit every time Cueto goes over 80 pitches. I understand the concern, but if we are in contention in September and shut down the youngsters, this site would explode with unmitigated rage. It has been THIRTEEN long mostly miserable years since we got in the playoffs. I know you're in college too. I was 8 1/2 when we got swept in the 95 LCS. That is a long damn time ago. You never know what's going to happen over the course of a season. guys could get hurt this year or next. So, if we've got a shot in September there's no way we'll hold back. This team's good. We'll have a dip once EV and JC get figured out by the scouts, but I have faith.

Patterson, Castro, and Bako, oh my!

by chesirecat on Apr 10, 2008 4:38 PM EDT up 0 recs

There it is.

I knew it was coming.

I wasn't afraid to talk about a possible 85 win season, but I wasn't going to go ahead and say that.

This team's good.

Red Reporter OWNS BaseballReference.com

by Fat Vegas Alan on Apr 10, 2008 4:42 PM EDT up 0 recs

What's life without

blind faith and optimism?

Patterson, Castro, and Bako, oh my!

by chesirecat on Apr 10, 2008 4:44 PM EDT up 0 recs

Well, it goes by many..

..names.

Red Reporter OWNS BaseballReference.com

by Fat Vegas Alan on Apr 10, 2008 4:50 PM EDT up 0 recs

i always thought it was being a present day fan of the President.

The Dusty Path to the World Series!*

*Note this is not an endorsment of Dusty Baker.

by justin007000 on Apr 10, 2008 4:51 PM EDT up 0 recs

There are only two of those left.

And even they're not optimistic about anything but the kegger at the FIJI house tomorrow night.

Red Reporter OWNS BaseballReference.com

by Fat Vegas Alan on Apr 10, 2008 4:55 PM EDT up 1 recs

You forgot Barney

The Dusty Path to the World Series!*

*Note this is not an endorsment of Dusty Baker.

by justin007000 on Apr 10, 2008 5:01 PM EDT up 0 recs

thanks for reminding me of that

I had just about pushed that out of my memory

by Blue on Apr 10, 2008 6:28 PM EDT up 0 recs

August and September that year were awful

I think Sean Casey and Jason LaRue were the only players left from the opening day roster. None of the starting pitchers survived the season because of injuries and ineffectiveness. Dan Sarafinni made a start. It was awful. I still have nightmares about watching that AA team play in Cincinnati.

The Dusty Path to the World Series!*

*Note this is not an endorsment of Dusty Baker.

by justin007000 on Apr 10, 2008 7:56 PM EDT up 0 recs

i remember watching a game serafini started

welsh said they got him from the mexican leagues and it gave me hiccups.

Abraham Lincoln said that if you're a racist, I will invade you with the north.

by Charlie Scrabbles on Apr 10, 2008 8:00 PM EDT up 0 recs

I was watching that game too

those were the days that Reds would litterly start anyone who could break 80 MPH and do it 80-100 times.

The Dusty Path to the World Series!*

*Note this is not an endorsment of Dusty Baker.

by justin007000 on Apr 10, 2008 8:14 PM EDT up 0 recs

so you are all for burning out the young pitchers

just for one year. I seem to remember that happening about 5 years ago in Chicago, and they still didn't win the World Series, and that being followed by years of futility. I just don't see 2008 as "the year".

The Dusty Path to the World Series!*

*Note this is not an endorsment of Dusty Baker.

by justin007000 on Apr 10, 2008 4:50 PM EDT up 0 recs

There's a difference

between burning them out and pitching them every 5th day, maybe bumping them back to 5 or 6 days rest when they need it by utilizing the off-days. But hey, Harang just blew away the Brewers, it's sunny (at least in NC), and it's spring!

Patterson, Castro, and Bako, oh my!

by chesirecat on Apr 10, 2008 4:57 PM EDT up 0 recs

Young pitchers

I don't shut them down, but you don't blow them out either. They'll get pushed back a day with the off day coming up. Harang will pitch on normal rest Tuesday. Fogg, who's scheduled day would have been Monday's off day, starts Wednesday. Everyone else is moved back 1 day. Do that during each off day. Take advantage of rainouts to push back the young guys. Keep a strict pitch limit. If there are still issues of wear and tear, one or both could pitch September out of the bullpen, especially if Weather, Burton, etc are having down years or injured. Volquez had some nasty stuff out of the bullpen in spring training.

by rojosoto on Apr 10, 2008 5:01 PM EDT up 0 recs

this is the magic of April

the Reds look good. they are pitching like we've never seen this team pitch in a long time. at the same time, the Orioles, Marlins, and Cardinals have looked good too. the Tigers look miserable and the Yankees look pedestrian. Reds, O's, Marlins, and Cards fans are all giddy thinking, "yeah maybe we can keep this up. just maybe we can keep this up!" while Yanks and Tigers fans are all saying, "dont worry about it we'll pick it up." everyone wears rose-colored glasses this time of year, and that is not a bad thing. Its the magic of April!

Abraham Lincoln said that if you're a racist, I will invade you with the north.

by Charlie Scrabbles on Apr 10, 2008 4:49 PM EDT 1 recs

The O's, Marlins, Cardinals, and Royals are all leading their divisions

It wouldn't surprise me at all if all 4 of those teams end up in last place in their divisions. Yeah, the magic of April.

"To me, boxing is like a ballet, except there's no music, no choreography, and the dancers hit each other." - Jack Handey

by JJ on Apr 10, 2008 5:30 PM EDT up 0 recs

RedReporter

Where the hopes and dreams of the down-trodden are forcibly brought back to reality.

Patterson, Castro, and Bako, oh my!

by chesirecat on Apr 10, 2008 5:35 PM EDT up 0 recs

Wow... sounds like I missed a pretty great game outta Harang...

by crolfer on Apr 10, 2008 5:46 PM EDT 0 recs

he made the Brewers look like his birds.

by Blue on Apr 10, 2008 6:26 PM EDT up 0 recs

Okay, the Milwaukee fans have a point...

Harang does look undead in that picture.

by Gray on Apr 10, 2008 7:56 PM EDT 0 recs

that's good

because he's not dead

Marty may have a shirt on, but Billy Beane just ripped his off and is squeezing his nipples. - Brendan's ukkah

by boobs on Apr 10, 2008 7:57 PM EDT up 0 recs

y'know...

zombie-esque.

by Gray on Apr 10, 2008 8:26 PM EDT up 0 recs

yes, i'know

Marty may have a shirt on, but Billy Beane just ripped his off and is squeezing his nipples. - Brendan's ukkah

by boobs on Apr 10, 2008 8:56 PM EDT up 0 recs

Good!

by Gray on Apr 10, 2008 9:01 PM EDT up 0 recs

I bet the Reds win total over in vegas

at 78.5 -- lock of the year.

also bet on them to win the WS @ 50:1

by Nick Papageorgio on Apr 10, 2008 9:14 PM EDT 0 recs

at tradesports

right here -- you can get the Reds to win the series for about 1.5 cents right now -- that's even a little longer than 50:1, right? BP's million seasons has the Reds at 16.3% to make the playoffs. If you figure that once you make the playoffs, anything can happen, you've got a 1/8 chance to win it all. That works out to a little over 2% chance. Odds are in your favor!

by bbjones on Apr 11, 2008 2:20 AM EDT up 0 recs

in moosic...

the bats looked good, leading 4-1 over scranton until the fifth, when maloney and pelland gave up four runs. Then majewski came in in the seventh and allowed homer, double, single to his first three batters. He has an 18.90 ERA for the Bats.

Louisville's down 9-4. Good news: Bruce is 4 for 4 (4 singles) and has his BA up to .344.

Marty may have a shirt on, but Billy Beane just ripped his off and is squeezing his nipples. - Brendan's ukkah

by boobs on Apr 10, 2008 9:50 PM EDT 0 recs

whats the over/under on Majewski's time left with this organization?

I'll give him til June 1st.

Abraham Lincoln said that if you're a racist, I will invade you with the north.

by Charlie Scrabbles on Apr 10, 2008 9:54 PM EDT up 0 recs

When's the draft?

That's when they tend to promote players upward. If there's a roster squeeze at that point, they'll probably let him go.

by rojosoto on Apr 10, 2008 10:02 PM EDT up 0 recs

You guys are pretty good

Scary possible rotation of Harang, Arroyo, Cueto, Volquez & Bailey by the end of the season.

I think you got a little lucky not having to face any of the Brewers three best pitchers (Sheets, Gallado & Parra), but a win is a win. Coming into the series, I figured a loss (for the Brewers) against Cueto, a win against Fogg, and a close loss against Harang. Ended up with a different 1-2, but still 1-2. See you next weekend, when you get Sheets & Yo.

He's extremely quick and good.

by battlekow on Apr 10, 2008 10:53 PM EDT 0 recs

eh... You guys are lucky Sheets hasn't injured himself so far...

That guy has to be the most talented pitcher with the worst luck ever...

by crolfer on Apr 10, 2008 11:02 PM EDT up 0 recs

Absolutely

But I have to work with what I've got. Sheets is what I got, and his stuff has been sick this season. How long this season lasts...we'll see.

He's extremely quick and good.

by battlekow on Apr 10, 2008 11:41 PM EDT up 0 recs

yes ve shall... speaking of ve...

I can't wait till summer... choir is going on a trip to Germany and Austria...

by crolfer on Apr 10, 2008 11:42 PM EDT up 0 recs

Go to Bielefeld!

See if it exists!

He's extremely quick and good.

by battlekow on Apr 10, 2008 11:44 PM EDT up 0 recs

whoa!

crazy...

by crolfer on Apr 10, 2008 11:45 PM EDT up 0 recs

Watch The Third Man before going to Vienna

by Red Menace on Apr 11, 2008 12:51 AM EDT up 0 recs

before going to vienna

i had a choice between watching the Third Man and watching Before Sunrise. i chose the latter. -sigh-...

Abraham Lincoln said that if you're a racist, I will invade you with the north.

by Charlie Scrabbles on Apr 11, 2008 9:26 AM EDT up 0 recs

That's okay

You might see Cueto, Volquez, & Harang all next weekend. They're talking about skipping Volquez's next start (after tonight) in order to keep Harang and Arroyo on their normal rest with the off-day. If that happens, and if they bump Fogg back a couple of days, the Reds weekend rotation should be Cueto, Volquez, Harang. They'll probably do some shenanigans in order to break up Cueto and Volquez since they are similar style pitchers, but those are the best three we've got right now. Worst case scenario, I think you'll see Arroyo, Cueto, and Harang. I'll take our shots at getting 2 out of 3 with that set.

I have to say I'm impressed at your ability to follow 2 game threads at once. This new format is so rapid fire with the auto-refresh that I get lost in one thread. The world went and got itself in a damn hurry.

WHY SHOULD I CHANGE IT? HE'S THE ONE WHO SUCKS!

by Slyde on Apr 11, 2008 8:26 AM EDT up 0 recs