Joe Posnanski On Paul Daugherty

by JD Arney on Mar 9, 2008 10:19 PM EDT in News

Joe Posnanski obviously can't come right out and respond to Daugherty's idiocy today, but this blog post was clearly inspired by Daugherty's column:

*I want to point out that I got these statistics from the Bill James Website. I would also like to take a moment to say something about my friend Bill, something that he probably would not want me to say. But every couple of weeks, it seems I will see yet another person throw Bill out there as the essence of statistical evils and pajama-wearing baseball geekdom. It makes makes me pretty ill. True, part if it is because we are friends, but a much larger part is that if you read Bill's work at all, if you look at his theories with anything resembling an open mind, if you consider at all what he's getting at ... you realize that the man LOVES baseball. I mean loves baseball, loves the game, loves the stories, loves the characters, loves the ins and outs of strategy, loves the moments, loves trying to figure out why things happen, and why so many people buy into stuff that is probably nonsense. I don't mind people saying that Bill is full of crap -- hell, we ALL have to deal with that (and Bill is never shy about saying that someone else is full of crap, including me). But the people who try to make it sound like Bill's love and understanding of baseball are wrapped up in obscure mathematics and unworkable thoughts and cold data just don't get it at all.

Aaron Harang also gets some love towards the end.

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Wow, I mean, Wow

In that blog entry, Joe Posnanski takes his giant hunting knife, sticks it in Daugherty somewhere above his groin, quickly pulls upward and disembowls him with sanity and logic.

Can... not... WAIT... for his book on the Big Red Machine.

by bobestes on Mar 9, 2008 10:27 PM EDT reply actions

I actually sent Joe's post to Paul earlier

along with my own relatively long (and surprisingly civil) diatribe. I doubt he'll respond, but one can hope.

by Geki on Mar 9, 2008 10:34 PM EDT reply actions

If you get a reply

we get to see it, right?

I'd bet it'd be pretty amusing.

Everybody's a jerk. You. Me. This jerk.

by andromache on Mar 9, 2008 10:36 PM EDT up reply actions

But of course.

by Geki on Mar 9, 2008 10:55 PM EDT up reply actions

What's sad is

Guys like Poz don't last in Cincinnati because they actually know what they are talking about.

Think about that for a moment. Very sad.

by bobestes on Mar 9, 2008 10:37 PM EDT up reply actions

I'm John R in the comments

I'd post my thoughts here but I have to get back to checking Wire reactions. Michael is the new Omar!

by Red Menace on Mar 9, 2008 11:57 PM EDT reply actions

What did you think?

I was pretty satisfied with the way things turned out. Of course, I always had faith that David Simon wouldn't bitch out like The Sopranos did.

We are all in the gutter, but some of us are looking at the stars. --Oscar Wilde

by JD Arney on Mar 10, 2008 8:46 AM EDT up reply actions

very satisfying

I didn't like this season much, what with all the newspaper crap, but they wrapped it up well. Anytime they sing Body of an American in that bar I'm won over.

by Red Menace on Mar 10, 2008 4:09 PM EDT up reply actions

Spoilers

Great. Now I have to watch out here too?

Anyway, good post, JD. FWIW, Doc hasn't responded to my email, which I wrote as an "attaboy" in something like a Larry the Cable Guy persona. Only dumber.

Poz and FJM vs. Doc. I know which side I'd rather be on.

by cggarb on Mar 10, 2008 9:56 AM EDT reply actions

Interesting

Seeing Harang and Bedard 1 and 2 on the +/- list makes me wish we had been able to get him. Adding him to our rotation would've rivaled Arizona for the best 1 2 combination in the NL.

Bruce Bonser? Boone Bonser? Boot Bonser?BOOSE BONZER?

by Lakeman on Mar 10, 2008 10:07 AM EDT reply actions

I think the biggest problem I have with the newer stats is that I am just plain ignorant. Take OPS. Clearly, it seems this is one of the most important new stats. You guys routinely use it around here. Trouble is, I still have no frame of reference for looking at an OPS number. I should by now, but for some reason my brain is just not absorbing this.

I look at a player's batting average and I get a sense for what the number means. .300 and above is really good. .275 and above is pretty acceptable. .250 and above is decent depending on what else that player can do. .250 or below is pretty mediocre. .200 or below is the reason you worry about the Reds' catching again this year.

I don't have that sense with OPS yet. Can someone break that down a little bit? Can it even be done?

Quick! Somebody make a Cincinnati loves Ken Griffey Jr. too! video

by TheC on Mar 10, 2008 10:09 AM EDT reply actions

This is how I see it, in general

It may not be precise on a year-to-year basis, but it's a pretty good guide:

1.000+ - Superstar
.900+ - Star - usually around the top 25 hitters in the game
.850-.900 - Very good. The more of these guys you can have the better.
.800-.850 - Good. Some of these players can be very good depending on the position they play (i.e. Brandon Phillips).
.700-.800 - roster filler. You don't want too many of these guys in key offensive positions (1B, OF, 3B). Typically they should be catchers and middle infielders.
sub-.700 - waste of time. They better be one of the best at their position defensively (i.e. Adam Everett)

Like I said, this isn't precise. And to get a true understanding you should adjust for position and park, but this is a reasonable guideline.

Don't talk back to Darth Vader or he'll getcha!

by Slyde on Mar 10, 2008 10:21 AM EDT up reply actions

Forgot one category.

Sub-.500 - Juan Casto. He is a category all his own.

At least it wasn't Grady Little.

by Paul Householder on Mar 10, 2008 10:30 AM EDT up reply actions

Thanks!

So, as a frame of reference. Where was ARod last year and where was the much maligned Adam Dunn? And then, just for fun... where was David Ross?

Quick! Somebody make a Cincinnati loves Ken Griffey Jr. too! video

by TheC on Mar 10, 2008 10:34 AM EDT up reply actions

Here you go

ARod - 1.067, led the majors
Dunn - .940, 18th in the majors
Ross - .670, didn't have enough ABs to qualify, but that would have put him 154th out of 162 qualifying hitters.

Don't talk back to Darth Vader or he'll getcha!

by Slyde on Mar 10, 2008 10:37 AM EDT up reply actions

The entire list

Here are all of the qualifying hitters from 2007: http://www.bb-ref.com/pi/shareit/cxG3

Don't talk back to Darth Vader or he'll getcha!

by Slyde on Mar 10, 2008 10:38 AM EDT up reply actions

Interesting

That page is quite helpful to get a sense of what the numbers mean.

Quick! Somebody make a Cincinnati loves Ken Griffey Jr. too! video

by TheC on Mar 10, 2008 10:54 AM EDT up reply actions

What, you some kind of expert or something?

by Geki on Mar 10, 2008 12:17 PM EDT up reply actions

My initial "frame of reference"...

..was taught to me by a rotoball kid in a coffee shop in Spring 2005. Barry Bonds was coming off what was described to me as "the single greatest OPS season in the history of ever."

Bonds 2004 numbers:

OBP ~.600
SLG ~.800
OPS ~1.400

The coffee shop kid told me to always remember a "fourteen hundred OPS" as the absolute intergalactic maximum standard. "It's the best ever and there will never be new best," was how he put it. (BTW, I've never checked out his statement.)

He also told me that if you were to simply cut the 1.400 in half (meaning an OPS of .700) you would have pretty much the "jumping off point" for any player that you'd ever care to know about. (See Slyde's post about how any player below .700 had better be a defensive specialist or something.)

So OPS will range from .700 to 1.400 but it's important to recognize that that 700-point range between those two points is not at all "the spectrum" or "the bell curve" or whatever. In order to always have a grasp on that spectrum, I would later come to commit this number to memory: .925 ..That's Gary Sheffield's career OPS (or it was at some point two or three years ago when I looked it up and committed it to memory). Sheffield is pretty damn good. He's even friggin great most seasons. There aren't going to be many players topping Shef's .925 mark during any given season but that's not to say that it can't/won't be done by a few guys each year. And since Shef has played 15 or 20 seasons that number isn't likely to be fluctuating much. So .925 is sort of what I always think of as the imaginary "goal" of most of the game's top hitters. (Kind of like a .333 BA)

So, to review..

1.400 = best ever
.925 = Gary Sheffield
.700 = not really worth mentioning

I hope that helps. (And I hope that's all relatively accurate. I'm mos def no expert here. I'm just a guy with three OPS number committed to memory.)

by Fat Vegas Alan on Mar 10, 2008 3:04 PM EDT up reply actions

Adding on to that

I should have done this earlier because I think it makes it more clear, but here are the Top 200 Active career OPS marks for players with a minimum of 1000 PAs. I've also included OPS+, which adjusts for park and era. This should give a little clearer definition of the quality of a hitter based on their OPS.

Don't talk back to Darth Vader or he'll getcha!

by Slyde on Mar 10, 2008 3:15 PM EDT up reply actions

I'm getting old.

It seems like Brad Hawpe just started playing and figured out how to hit and started getting pitched around and made it to the World Series all in this past season. But it turns out he's the top 40 hitters in the game today.

by Fat Vegas Alan on Mar 10, 2008 3:39 PM EDT up reply actions

SEC Speed, dude

Two Dunns enter, but only one Dunn leaves...unless neither do because they decide to hunt, play cards, drink and fish. -Slyde

by Man Mountain on Mar 10, 2008 3:42 PM EDT up reply actions

Sort of

When you adjust for his park, his OPS+ is just 79th for active players. Similarly, Todd Helton moves from 3rd to 13th and Matt Holliday moves from 15th to 29th. And for those that are wondering, Griffey moves from 18th to 17th and Dunn stays at 27th.

Don't talk back to Darth Vader or he'll getcha!

by Slyde on Mar 10, 2008 3:44 PM EDT up reply actions

BTW...

..Babe Ruth's 1920 OPS?

1.382

by Fat Vegas Alan on Mar 10, 2008 5:07 PM EDT up reply actions

Barry Bonds in 2004

1.421 Bonds OPS+ that year was 263, topped only by the 268 he put up in 2002.

Don't talk back to Darth Vader or he'll getcha!

by Slyde on Mar 10, 2008 5:13 PM EDT up reply actions

i was looking at those numbers the other day

and it's still hard for me to believe, three and a half years later, that barry bonds got on base in 61 percent of his plate appearances. melvin mora led the AL that year with a .419 OBP, about 42 percent, which is incredibly high. but bonds actually got on base more than three times every five plate appearances for an entire season. i still can't wrap my head around that. rarely getting a pitch to hit and walking 232 times in a season (!!!) will do that, I guess.

Oh yeah, he also slugged .812, the fourth-highest single-season SLG ever. the only men with a better single-season SLG are babe ruth and barry bonds (who was number 1 in 2001).

the fact that 2004 bonds even occurred, amazes me.

Marty may have a shirt on, but Billy Beane just ripped his off and is squeezing his nipples. - Brendan's ukkah

by boobs on Mar 10, 2008 5:28 PM EDT up reply actions

Maybe someone should further investigate.

by Fat Vegas Alan on Mar 11, 2008 11:15 AM EDT up reply actions

Why

do you think there is a reason to be suspicious?

Don't talk back to Darth Vader or he'll getcha!

by Slyde on Mar 11, 2008 11:20 AM EDT up reply actions

Shouldn't this read:

Barry Bonds in 2004*

1.421* Bonds OPS+ that year was 263*, topped only by the 268* he put up in 2002*.

-Just having some fun....

"Sometimes, you get so caught up in on-base percentage that you're clogging up the bases." - our very own D. Baker - Oh my..

by snohio on Mar 11, 2008 9:56 AM EDT up reply actions

Reds OPS

Looking at leaderboards is a great way to get a sense of things. Here are the top single season Reds OPS of all time.

Rank Player OPS Year

Ted Kluszewski 1.049 1954
Kal Daniels 1.046 1987
Frank Robinson 1.045 1962
Joe Morgan 1.020 1976
Frank Robinson 1.015 1961
George Foster 1.013 1977
Bernie Carbo 1.005 1970
Frank Robinson 1.002 1960
Harry Heilmann .993 1930
Eric Davis .992 1987

Kal Daniels did that in only 300-some at bats in 87. Also, Bernie Carbo?

Career Reds OPS Leaders
Rank Player OPS PA

Frank Robinson .943 6409
Adam Dunn .900 4098
Ken Griffey .887 3479
Joe Morgan .885 4973
Eric Davis .877 3819
George Foster .870 5010
Ted Kluszewski .869 5404
Cy Seymour .841 2420
Dmitri Young .841 2178
Edd Roush .839 5965

That's Griffey Jr, not his dad.

by Red Menace on Mar 10, 2008 4:08 PM EDT up reply actions

Joe Morgan

does not appreciate being on this list of video games.

Two Dunns enter, but only one Dunn leaves...unless neither do because they decide to hunt, play cards, drink and fish. -Slyde

by Man Mountain on Mar 10, 2008 4:27 PM EDT up reply actions

I'm a seat of my pants expert

To paraphrase Stephen Colbert.... you don't manage a baseball game with facts and stats, you manage with what you know in here (pointing to left breast).

That column is a riot. We should accuse Doc of plagurism for ripping off the entire Truthiness sketch from Colbert.

Quick! Somebody make a Cincinnati loves Ken Griffey Jr. too! video

by TheC on Mar 10, 2008 1:48 PM EDT reply actions

And, of course

... this was a response to Geki. But who needs to reply under the proper post? That's for pajama managers.

Quick! Somebody make a Cincinnati loves Ken Griffey Jr. too! video

by TheC on Mar 10, 2008 1:49 PM EDT up reply actions

Doc is for Doc

Let's face it, Paul Daugherty is all about Paul Daughtery. He says whatever gets him the biggest paycheck at the time and whatever gets him closer to the next big story. For instance, he wrote the big Chad Johnson book and pounded his chest for little Chad, now things are going south and he's on the other side looking in. He's not a Cincinnati guy! He's not a Cincinnati fan. The guy's from D.C. for cryin' out loud!

His opinion doesn't mean squat here. He should just stick to what he does best and that is to inform. Keep your opinions to yourself Doc!

1990 Cincinnati Reds are World Champions!!

by pohackjr on Mar 10, 2008 2:25 PM EDT reply actions

take a walk doc...

how about a long walk off a short pier?

you don't live in Cleveland, you live in Cincinnati

by kawliga on Mar 10, 2008 3:54 PM EDT reply actions

Hey, Slyde..

..can we get some LW/SP analysis of Doc's chances?

by Fat Vegas Alan on Mar 10, 2008 4:13 PM EDT up reply actions

Well

if his ratio of walking to pier length is greater than 1.0, then I think it's a benefit to every one. Unfortunately, PECOTA only has him at a .75 LW/SP.

Don't talk back to Darth Vader or he'll getcha!

by Slyde on Mar 10, 2008 4:15 PM EDT up reply actions

He should lose some weight

and run out to his position.

Two Dunns enter, but only one Dunn leaves...unless neither do because they decide to hunt, play cards, drink and fish. -Slyde

by Man Mountain on Mar 10, 2008 4:26 PM EDT up reply actions

Poz on Doc

Not sure if this was posted elsewhere, but I saw in Poz's blog that this column was not a conscious rebuttal to Daugherty:

I know there some people who felt like my last blog post on stats was pointed toward a friend of mine, Paul Daugherty, and I just want to say it was not, or at least it was not consciously pointed his way. I did read his column about Dusty Baker, which had a couple of swipes at Bill James, and I'm sure I locked that away in my mind. But the post itself was started a couple of days before, and when I wrote the Bill James Pozterisk, I was actually thinking about someone else who had just sent me an essay he had done where he ripped Bill James for taking the fun out of baseball. Maybe reading both that and Doc's column on the same weekend was too much -- I'm not saying Doc had nothing to do with it. I'm also not going to say I liked Doc's column because I did not, and I suspect Dusty Baker will be a fiasco in Cincinnati, and Bill James will probably keep on doing all right in Boston. But I respect Doc a lot, I've long admired his work, and I'm entirely grateful to him -- he was one of two or three key people who helped me get my breakthrough job in Cincinnati.

by ken on Mar 11, 2008 9:26 AM EDT reply actions

telling

"I suspect Dusty Baker will be a fiasco in cincinnati"

by bobestes on Mar 11, 2008 7:53 PM EDT up reply actions

thats a misprint

what he meant to say was "I suspect Dusty Baker will be a Lupe Fiasco in Cincinnati," obviously referring to Lupe Fiasco's album "The Cool." Poz thinks Dusty is the cool.

I don't disagree.