Sunday Game Thread: Reds at Rays

And with any luck maybe we could shoot for playing more than 162 games this year? How about 165 at least. (Yes that means being swept in the playoffs, but come on even that would take some luck..)

Re: Blanton and W-L record
Daugherty would trade both Bailey and Votto for Blanton, and cares only about the W-L record of the pitcher in question.

Blanton was 14-10 in 34 starts.

Bailey was 4-2 in 9 Starts.  If he got 34 starts, Daugherty logic dicatates his record would be 15-8, which is way better than 14-10.  Bailey, again, by Daugherty logic, pitched way better than Blanton last year.  Why would he trade Bailey PLUS another guy for Blanton, when Bailey had a better record last year?

So, although he states the opposite conclusion, he really just proved that W-L record is a stupid way to evaluate pitchers.  And, um, I really hate to break this to him, but sabermetrics has been screaming this for a long, long time.

"Hey Paul, here's another stat for you (don't worry, it's a simple one):

World Series Rings: Bill James 2; Dusty Baker 1

JD Arney"

James writes about his subject in an incredibly approachable manner. It was his best gift as a writer. He was a populizer, along the lines of Carl Sagan (here's a recent taste of James). Nothing is farther from the truth than claiming his writing made baseball sound like biomechanical engineering, rocket science, brain surgery or any other frighteningly-complicated-thingy.

It's also one called "See Spot Run". Shut it, Doc.

The other day, the Reds manager decided he wanted Joey Votto and Adam Dunn to swing their bats more. "I don't like called third strikes," Baker said.

Adam Dunn wasn't even mentioned by Dusty, actually, and Dusty kinda skirted around the question when specifically asked by Fay about Dunn. We get it, Paul. You hate Adam Dunn. Probably because Adam Dunn is far more intelligent, makes far more money, is significantly better looking, and could beat your moronic ass any time he pleased. But he won't, because he's not an assclown like you.

Can we get an Amen?

Nope!

It always amuses when fans defend heart-of-the-order hitters by pointing to their on-base percentage. Wow, look at all those walks.

Not as much as it amuses when idiot sportswriters think they actually know something about baseball. Another thinly veiled shot at Dunn, though. Good to see you've got your journalistic integrity and don't hold stupid vendettas, Paul.

Unless they're intentional walks, or the big boppers are being pitched around, walks aren't what you want from players hitting third through sixth. You want them up there smart-hacking.

Smart-hacking is an oxymoron. You're just a regular moron.

As Baker said: "(Votto) needs to swing more. I'd like to see him more aggressive."

By-the-book managing is for men who aren't confident in their ability to read players and situations. It's for managers who don't know their players' personalities. It's what you do so you can say later, after it backfires: "Don't blame me. I went by the book."

And by the head-book managing results in Juan Castro pinch-hitting for Josh Hamilton. I'll take excuses over outright failures.

The best thing about Baker is that from all accounts, it's important to him to know his players individually: what jazzes them, what scares them, the situations that best suit their talents and temperaments. Contrary to the notions of the seamheads and stat freaks, players are not numbers.

Rather a seamhead than a Dustafarian, hot stuff.

"Managing" means exactly what it says: the ability to manage people. How Baker runs a game strategically is far less important than what he is able to pull from his employees, 162 times a summer.

The first possibly accurate thing you've said in this article. Of course, if you're pulling from Norris Hopper and Corey Patterson and Jeremy Affeldt and Scott Hatteberg over Jay Bruce and Homer Bailey and Joey Votto, you're doing more damage than good. Even if you pull the absolute best that Juan Castro can give you out of Juan Castro, Juan Castro is going to be a crappy baseball player. Statistics and common sense dictate this. If you pull the best you can out of Jay Bruce, then you're actually doing something.

Anyone with a laptop can locate the Web site baseball- reference.com and sound like an expert. Anyone with a library card can pick up one of James' mind-numbing baseball "abstracts," in which the author makes the game sound like a first cousin to biomechanical engineering.

Maybe you should try that "sounding like an expert" thing, because right now you "sound like a fucktard".

It ain't that scientific.

The NFL does the same thing, in a different fashion. To convince you that pro football is actually a 17-week MENSA convention, The League whips out its 800-page playbooks and offers up oh-so-serious coaches who work 20 hours a day and act as if their jobs involve brain surgery and a red telephone.

Possibly, it's less complex. Block. Tackle. Win.

Brilliant! "Alright, offensive linemen go ahead and block. Linebackers, you go ahead and try to tackle the guy with the ball. Victory is assured. Assured!

Baseball's cerebral side involves numbers. While I believe in baseball-card wisdom - you are who the back of your card says you are - it's just a little piece of the whole. When some of us (OK, me mostly) advocated dealing, say, Votto and Homer Bailey for Oakland pitcher Joe Blanton, the Statboys came out flame-throwing numbers:

Blanton's a creation of his spacious home ballpark! Look at his ERA, home and away! Blanton's a flyball pitcher! Check out his ratio of groundballs to flies!

If you shot back that Blanton has won 42 times in the last three years - and that he went 7-5 at home last year and 7-5 on the road - if you suggested that no number matters but Games Won, you were dismissed as an illiterate.

No number matters but games won? I...what...what?

(Actually, maybe Blanton won as many on the road as at home, even with a much higher road ERA, because Oakland's hitters worked under the same conditions as their pitcher. Allow more runs, score more runs. And factually, flyball man Blanton gave up only 16 home runs in 230 innings last year. But never mind.)

Take out the exceptional condescension and you're starting to formulate a real argument as to why the Reds should trade for Joe Blanton. That's not a "never mind".

Numbers are fun to look at but dangerous to dwell on. Baker understands this. If Dunn walks 30 fewer times this year, he'll drive in 15 more runs. His on-base percentage will dip. Oh, no.

And if the batters in front of Dunn walk 30 more times, he'll probably drive in quite a few more runs as well. Ba-pow!

If Votto takes fewer first-pitch strikes, his run production will improve.

Joey Votto has never had a problem with run production! He struck out once -- once -- looking in a spring training game, Dusty commented on it, and you based an entire ridiculous article on it (and probably four hours on your unlistenable radio show).

And so on. Here's a stat: Wins as manager: Dusty Baker, 1,162; Bill James, 0.

Oh yeah? Here's another one. Losses as manager: Dusty Baker, 1041; Bill James, 0. And I got those numbers from baseball-reference.com. I'm not gonna lie, I feel like a fucking expert right now. Shit yeah.

(Fogg gets it done 1-2-3.)

Either Dusty is creepy or the Fay doesn't deserve his job.

pencils down.

Run Differential
Step 1: The Formula
Step 2: The Sliding Scale
Step 3: How to Get There
Step 3a: The Bullpen
Step 4: The Offense
Step 4a: The Encarnacion Factor
Step 5: The Bottom Line

This is great stuff.  Definitely worth a read.  It's basic enough that you don't need a 300-level sabermetrics education to understand it, and in-depth enough that the Slydes of the world won't be bored.  Can somebody please email this to Daugherty?  I get the feeling he has me on "ignore."