Hey... Can i get some help

by crolfer on Mar 7, 2008 10:52 AM EST

Some people are really thick-skulled when it comes to realizing just how important Adam Dunn is to this franchise... I was just wondering what some effective stats and simulators might be to show just how weak we'd be without him. (Facebook Cincinnati Reds Fans Application Debates)

Thanks for the time! Here's to the Reds in 2008!

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Diaries

BLee2525 did a few on Dunn last year. I believe they were all headed as "Fun with Numbers." You can search that way. Here are a couple:

http://redreporter.com/story/2007/8/6/19025/18291

http://redreporter.com/story/2007/8/17/19327/2369

The Frog also had a good Diary about whether the Reds could afford to keep Dunn.

http://redreporter.com/story/2007/7/31/104016/264

There are some other large scale Dunn treatises on this blog, but I'm not sure that one has been done here since the end of last season--a great pro-Dunn season.

The sabermetrics series from last year could provide some good context for your own look into Dunn's numbers.

(I'd try to help more but I'm arguing about Lost elsewhere on the web. NC tax dollars at work.)

Two Dunns enter, but only one Dunn leaves...unless neither do because they decide to hunt, play cards, drink and fish. -Slyde

by Man Mountain on Mar 7, 2008 11:29 AM EST 0 recs

thanks!

Time for me to get to work at defending Dunn's integrity...

You can't have manslaughter without laughter

by crolfer on Mar 7, 2008 11:32 AM EST up 0 recs

screw his integrity

defend his offensive prowess

Two Dunns enter, but only one Dunn leaves...unless neither do because they decide to hunt, play cards, drink and fish. -Slyde

by Man Mountain on Mar 7, 2008 11:48 AM EST up 0 recs

... that's what I said... :P

You can't have manslaughter without laughter

by crolfer on Mar 7, 2008 11:48 AM EST up 0 recs

Sawyer crush > Dunn crush?

Would not have guessed.

by Brendanukkah on Mar 7, 2008 12:13 PM EST up 0 recs

No one can replace Dunn

and Sawyer was not featured in last night's episode. He's been reduced to playing odd couple with Hurley.

Two Dunns enter, but only one Dunn leaves...unless neither do because they decide to hunt, play cards, drink and fish. -Slyde

by Man Mountain on Mar 7, 2008 12:46 PM EST up 0 recs

There are no stats

The people you are arguing with can't be bothered with stats. Marty tells them that he strikes out too much, and that this is a bigger issue than any statistic that you would present. In fact, they'll label you a numbers guy and disregard anything else you have to say on the subject.

2-0 count: one pitch, one zone

by rojosoto on Mar 7, 2008 1:02 PM EST 0 recs

I always ask people

To find me a replacement who plays 155 games, hits 40 HR, and scores and knocks in 100 runs. EVERY DAMNED YEAR.

Or I ask them to find me not one but two guys to replace him and his offense.

When you get the invariable "he's so slow" argument, politely mention that the man is 6'6" and 260 lbs and ask how fast they think he should be.

All that said, GregD is probably right, they've already formed their opinion and there's simply not much you'll be able to do.

by jch24 on Mar 7, 2008 1:12 PM EST 0 recs

sweet.

Thanks for the tips

You can't have manslaughter without laughter

by crolfer on Mar 7, 2008 1:15 PM EST up 0 recs

I'm a little more optimistic

than GregD, especially if you are arguing with people your age.

Baseball fans are usually already intersted in numbers, moreso than football fans anyway. It's just a matter of changing the kinds of numbers they respect. After all, OBP is no more difficult a calculation than is BA, it's simply a less familiar stat.

All you have to do is plant the seed of doubt as to the way they perceive the game and what certain numbers mean. Eventually, a few will begin to question their convictions.

Never all, perhaps not most, but some.

Two Dunns enter, but only one Dunn leaves...unless neither do because they decide to hunt, play cards, drink and fish. -Slyde

by Man Mountain on Mar 7, 2008 1:20 PM EST up 0 recs

Somewhere on Red Reporter...

..(perhaps in one of the Sabermetric Series diaries) is a side-by-side comparison of two lists: MVP voting results and top OPS finishers. The two lists are very similar. I think this is good way to open the OBP door to newbies. It shows them a group of players that are generally respected by all baseball fans and it allows you to explain why you think their statistics should be respected (and trusted/valued) while they have something familiar (intangible as MVP voting might be) for them to "hold on to."

I showed the lsits to a coupla dudes last year and while they're probably still AVG/HR/RBI guys, they know that I'm not and now they know where I'm coming from. It's a nice way to introduce some new concepts without starting a fight.

by Fat Vegas Alan on Mar 7, 2008 1:43 PM EST up 0 recs

It's not exactly as I described it..

..but here it is.

G'luck.

by Fat Vegas Alan on Mar 7, 2008 1:47 PM EST up 0 recs

thanks!

You can't have manslaughter without laughter

by crolfer on Mar 7, 2008 1:48 PM EST up 0 recs

Dunn is good

but the guy has huge weaknesses in his game.

His Bat = plus
His glove = one of the 5 worst in baseball

He is still one of the 8 best left fielders in baseball every year, but his glove is going to negate a ton of his offensive statistics.

Is he easy to replace? No.

Is he possible to replace? Absolutely. Get a good hitter, albeit not as good as Dunn, who plays good defense in LF and you are going to be real close to having output equal to Dunns.

A guy like Ryan Church is very close to Dunn in overall value when you take into account their respective defensive values.

Dunn is a very good player and people are dumb to not realize that, but I would suggest not wasting too much time going through the argument over and over because most people aren't going to care what you have to say because he hits .250 and strikes out 180 times while playing horrible defense (the one thing of the three that I listed that actually does matter in terms of value).

www.redsminorleagues.com

by dougdirt on Mar 7, 2008 2:54 PM EST 0 recs

defense last year

I thought he looked a little better in the field last year. Did my eyes deceive me yet again?

2-0 count: one pitch, one zone

by rojosoto on Mar 7, 2008 3:01 PM EST up 0 recs

they did

he was just about the same as he has been the previous few seasons defensively. According to the fielding bible, had the BIS guys accounted for the Green Monster like they plan to in the future, Adam Dunn was the worst left fielder in baseball defensively. He was worth roughly -15 runs in the field.

www.redsminorleagues.com

by dougdirt on Mar 7, 2008 4:01 PM EST up 0 recs

Question:

Is there an agreed-upon way to determine the size of GAB's "left field" area? If so, where does GAB's left field rank when compared to other NL/MLB left fields?

And would I be correct to assume that Dunn's value would decrease significantly if he played 81 games in a larger left field?

by Fat Vegas Alan on Mar 7, 2008 4:11 PM EST up 0 recs

Not sure

If there is a way to determine GABP's LF size, but I don't think his value would diminish playing in defense in say, PETCO, because the general zones likely play the same, but in a place like Petco a guy with extreme range could likely be a better fielder there than in GABP because of the amount of extra outs one could make according to most metrics.

To the fielding bible though, that stuff would not come into play.

www.redsminorleagues.com

by dougdirt on Mar 7, 2008 4:34 PM EST 0 recs

I've always wondered

Why the big wall in LF when the RF porch is the "power zone" (supposedly designed with Junior in mind)?

Looking at the dimensions, LF is 328' and RF is 325' but the wall in LF is 12' as opposed to the rest being at 8'. Anyone have an idea why they made the mini-monster other than a convenient place to slap a scoreboard?

by jch24 on Mar 7, 2008 6:51 PM EST up 0 recs

The Playbook

Well, your argument is probably over, and you've most likely convinced nobody of anything despite mountains of evidence to the contrary. Par for the course, crolfer. Get used to it. Man Mountain, thanks for the shout. There's one study I did that won't show up under the "Fun with Numbers" tag, because I did it before I came up with that title. I compared Dunn vs. Jeter with runners on base (http://www.redreporter.com/story/2007/6/13/19235/9786). I also have one I just finished regarding Dunn's RBI opportunities, which I'll probably be posting either tonight or tomorrow.

I've been in quite a few of these Dunn arguments, and I've seen essentially every argument that Dunn-bashers make. I've done pretty much all the research for you, either finding somebody else's work, or putting a study together myself. Here's a little point/counterpoint to help you in these arguments.

Point: Dunn's career BA with RISP sucks
Counterpoint: Dunn gets pitched around in those situations due to mismanagement. He has trouble hitting borderline pitches (partly due to a long swing, partly due to a big strike zone), so he's at a huge disadvantage in any situation where pitchers aren't forced to challenge him. It is the manager's job to maximize his strengths and minimize his weaknesses, yet every Reds' manager has put him in a place in the lineup with an inferior hitter behind him. With a base open, and Sea Bass on deck, pitchers throw him a bunch of crap and hope they get a call rather than challenge him and risk making a mistake that ends up in the seats. (link them to my study re:Dunn with Runners On)

Point: Dunn doesn't hit sacrifice flies
Counterpoint: You're right. He fucks up his sac flies by hitting them over the wall. (http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/do-batters-try-to-hit-sacrifice-flies/)

Point: Dunn strikes out too much
Counterpoint: Aaron Harang was 4th in the NL in hits allowed in '06, Bronson Arroyo was 2nd in the NL in HR's allowed in '06, Phillips was 1 away from leading the NL in GIDP's last year. None of that makes them bad players Those 3 guys are discussed in terms of their strengths. Dunn's the only one discussed in terms of his weakness.

Point: Dunn feasts on mediocre pitchers.
Counterpoint: You're fucking stupid. (link to my study on Dunn vs. the Aces)

Point: 40 HR and only 100 RBI??? WTF????
Counterpoint: Dunn gets less opportunities to drive in runs than the 9 NL guys ahead of him in RBI, and 2 guys on his own team. You can't expect him to drive in baserunners that aren't there. (link to the study I'll be posting either tonight or tomorrow)

Point: Dunn sucks on defense
Counterpoint: Yes, he does. But Carlos Lee, Raul Ibanez, Manny Ramirez, Josh Willingham, Moises Alou, and Hideki Matsui are worse (http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/dialed_in/discussion/the_2007_calphalon_awards_outfielders / note: Dunn comes in at -5DRS in this study)

"Karma - there it was. The meaning of life, straight from Carson Daly's lips to my morphine-laced ears." -Earl Hickey

by BLee2525 on Mar 7, 2008 9:06 PM EST 0 recs

Forgot one

Point: All Dunn hits are solo shots
Counterpoint: You're fucking stupid. Dunn hits 1 HR every 14.2 AB's with nobody on, and 1 every 13.9 AB's with runners on base. The reason he hits 56% of his HR's with nobody on base is because he takes 57% of his at-bats with nobody on base.

BTW, in the defensive argument, that should read -5 DRS. The negative sign ended up on a different line than the 5, which makes it kind of confusing.

"Karma - there it was. The meaning of life, straight from Carson Daly's lips to my morphine-laced ears." -Earl Hickey

by BLee2525 on Mar 7, 2008 9:13 PM EST up 0 recs

Dunn's defense

I can't say I know what all goes into Dial's system, but just about every other system disagrees with his big time on Adam Dunn. The biggest difference is likely that Dial only calculates balls in a players zone, where Dunn is fine. The issue with that is, many players make upwards of 40-45 plays out of their 'zones' per year. Dunn makes 30. That is what makes Dunn a lousy defender, his lack of range at even a position with other slow, poor range guys. Those out of zone type plays are generally extra base hits, and they add up in those runs columns quickly. A system that fails to integrate all balls a player makes a play on is not an overall good system and the one you quoted fails to do so.

www.redsminorleagues.com

by dougdirt on Mar 8, 2008 12:31 AM EST up 0 recs

out-of-zone plays

Per THT (which gets data from John Dewan's Baseball Info Solutions), Dunn does about the same for in versus out of zone plays. He finished towards the bottm last year in RZR and OOZ among starting NL LFs last year, but was 5th in both categories in '06. This conflicts with the theme of Dunn recommitting to defense last year, but it could simply be the variance of just a year's worth of fielding data. When it comes down to it, I'm fairly comfortable in saying that Dunn is as good or better with the glove as Lee, Burrell, Willingham, Alou and maybe Bay. And there could be others (like Wily Mo), depending on who starts.

by ken on Mar 8, 2008 9:16 AM EST up 0 recs

Over the last 3 years

Here is where the Fielding Bible has LF (the chart is a photo so it shows other positions):

That puts Adam Dunn pretty clearly behind every left fielder in baseball and only the Green Monster is possibly keeping him from being the worst in baseball.

I know that the zone rating system has undergone some changes in recent history, but the Fielding Bible goes about it in a different way than Zone Rating does, a more accurate way than ZR.

www.redsminorleagues.com

by dougdirt on Mar 8, 2008 4:49 PM EST up 0 recs

PMR

PMR shows him as below average, but ahead of Bonds, Kubel, Ibanez, Ramirez, Duncan and Burrell among regular LF's, and within shouting distance of Willingham, Alou and C.Lee. FRAA has him at -18 runs, better than Willingham, and only one behind Burrell, Ibanez and C.Lee.

Dial, PMR, and RZR+OOZ all seem to be saying the same thing; Dunn is a below-average LF along with a large complement of other excellent offensive players. Only Fielding Bible has him as significantly worse than that "below average" category. In your post above, you said that "just about every other system" disagrees with Dial. It looks to me like just about every other system agrees with Dial, and Fielding Bible is the outlier.

"Karma - there it was. The meaning of life, straight from Carson Daly's lips to my morphine-laced ears." -Earl Hickey

by BLee2525 on Mar 8, 2008 5:11 PM EST up 0 recs

god

when you guys talk defense it gets me all horny. thanks for this talk, all yous guys.

Marty may have a shirt on, but Billy Beane just ripped his off and is squeezing his nipples. - Brendan's ukkah

by boobs on Mar 8, 2008 5:47 PM EST up 0 recs

Other rating systems

THT ZR (using the top 30 players in LF by innings played)

Dunn's zone rating 25th (ahead of just Garret Anderson, Raul Ibanez, Pat Burrell, Chris Dunan and ManRam).

Dunn's OOZ plays per inning - 28th (ahead of just Pat Burrell and Josh Willingham).

Then there is the fielding bible which we have already covered.

Then there is Justin's system (based off of THT information) that ranks Dunn as 3rd worst in baseball (ahead of ManRam and Burrell).

http://jinaz-reds.blogspot.com/2007/10/2007-fielding-data.html
to read more about his system.

PMR has Dunn as the 4th worst LF of guys within even 1000 balls in play of him.

Basically, Dunn, even at such a position as LF filled with attrocious fielders, is among the absolute worst in baseball defensively.

www.redsminorleagues.com

by dougdirt on Mar 9, 2008 5:17 PM EDT up 0 recs

Who's that as the worst CF?

Corey Patterson's one of the best though. That's... not encouraging exactly, but might make me hate him less as a LIDP.

by Brendanukkah on Mar 8, 2008 11:15 PM EST up 0 recs

Oh yeah

What about Dunns influence off the baseball field! You can not use all your crazy facts to show how Griffey and him are telling young Jay Bruce to fake getting hurt to take it easy in spring break! You have to think beyond the box score man.

I Misremember lots of things

by Zach K on Mar 8, 2008 12:34 PM EST up 0 recs