The Ryan Howard theory to support keeping the kids down
I don't know if I fully believe this, but I can see some merit. A few years ago, Ryan Howard was one of the hottest minor league prospects. The Phillies kept him in the minors an extra year and a half - he was 26 in his first full major league season. I think their philosophy with him (other than having Jim Thome blocking him) was that they would have more years of Howard's prime by keeping him in the minors.
Fast forward to our situation. With the number of highly-regarded minor-league prospects we have, keeping them down 1/2 a season longer will control costs and allow the Reds to control them during more of their 'peak' years. With the arbitration salaries spinning out of control (see Howard = $10M!!!), it becomes even more important to have guys for as much of their peak years as possible.
Howard was the one I thought of with a team keeping a top minor leaguer down - are there any other examples anyone can think of? Is it worth keeping a guy down a half or full season to be able to have him for more of his prime?
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it works both ways
The only reason they kept him down was Thome, I don't think there was much more to it than that.
Yeah
FWIW, there is some speculation that Howard won his arb case because the Phillies kept him down for so long, shortening his earnings stream in the process.
by ken on Mar 6, 2008 9:08 AM EST up reply actions
Keeping Bruce down
by redacolyte on Mar 6, 2008 9:16 AM EST reply actions
Keeping Bruce down....
by Lonesome George on Mar 6, 2008 9:21 AM EST reply actions
The way I see it,
by Thundering Turtle on Mar 6, 2008 9:27 AM EST reply actions
yes and no
Speaking of Howard
Phillies show striking out not all that bad
"You ground out. You fly out. You strike out. An out is an out," Howard said. "People want to glorify what they want to glorify. If hitting into double plays were a big thing, then people would make them a big thing."
Seriously, a beat writer contributed this sanity.
Zolecki is one of the good ones
by ken on Mar 7, 2008 5:21 PM EST up reply actions
also from Sanityland
"I always set high, lofty OBPs for leadoff hitters and No. 2s. I'd like to go between .370 and .380--that's high. It's really high," Hillman said. "But if you have the ability to take as many walks as you can get, it sure does help. I think he can get there, if not to .370 or .380, then hopefully .365 to .370."
thats fine and dandy

I've been meaning to say this
[Not making outs] is great if you can score runs and do something with that [not making outs]
Sometimes, you get so caught up in [not making outs] that you're clogging up the bases.
[Not making outs], that's fine and dandy. But...
One would think
To me, it depends
If you don't think you're in a position to win, or if the player already there is better, there's no harm in keeping the guy in the minors at least for a while. This is where I think the Reds are with Bruce.
-For all of the hype, the various projection systems have him as league-average this year. His ZiPS projection, for example, anticipates a .793 OPS; EdE's was .794 last year. Any of the three main guys who're competing with him for the CF job are likely to not hit as well, but their defense and baserunning should make up the difference.
-He's still only had 250 PAs above class A, still shows poor plate discipline, and will be 21 when the season starts. A little more time in the minors probably will help, especially if his time in Cinci would include a bench time.
-If he has a breakout year, the Reds would have a chance to win the division; however, I don't see any way in h-e-double-hockey-sticks they can compete with Philly or the Mets and get to the World Series, let alone win it against any of the playoff caliber teams from the AL, even if everything goes perfectly.
With the amount of money flying around MLB these days, a team would be stupid to base their decision on the arb clock. But a guy with that much potential who isn't quite there yet, playing for a team that isn't quite there yet, is probably best served playing every day in the minors at least for a while (unless he hits the cover off the ball in ST and/or none of the others show anything at all).

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