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One week til Opening Day: Some Hypotheticals

Just some things I've been thinking about.  Opine as you please:

  1. What if Johnny Cueto pitches 230 innings this year and the Reds make the playoffs?  Is it worth the injury risk?  What if that happens and then in 2010 he has Tommy John surgery?  I'm not saying it's going to happen, rather, what is more valuable - a playoff appearance in 2008 or Johnny Cueto's future to the Reds?
  2. Since, in Dusty's words, "Votto is usually a slow starter," what if the Reds send Joey Votto down to Louisville to start the season until his bat heats up?  Is that a good strategy?  What if Votto starts out hot in Louisville?  Would you be pissed?
  3. What if Adam Dunn finally hits 50 home runs in 2008?  Would he suddenly be priced out of the Reds budget?
  4. What if this season Edwin Encarnacion puts up virtually the same numbers he did last season, but doesn't have the month long slump like he did last year?  Is that an improvement?  Should he still be the thirdbaseman of the future for the Reds?
  5.  What if Corey Patterson bats .280/.330/.450?  Is he the CF in 2009?  If not, who is?
  6.  What if it appears that the only thing that is keeping the Reds from first place in July is the catching position?  Would you trade Votto or Bailey for someone like Kenji Johjima or Bengie Molina?
  7.  What if Todd Coffey is returning to 2006 form?  How many innings would it take you to believe that he should pitch in the 8th inning again?
  8.  What if the Reds are 3 games under .500, but only 5 games out of the playoffs on July 15th?  Should they be buyers or sellers (selling Dunn, Weathers, Hatteberg, Freel, Gonzalez, etc.)?
  9.  What if the Reds finish in 3rd place at 81-81? Does Wayne Krivsky still have a job?
  10.  What if this wasn't a hypothetical question?

0 recs  |  Comment 51 comments

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What if Arizona doesn't want the Reds?
I just saw this on espn.com's spring blog.  It's a couple days old, but I hadn't seen this story anywhere else.

"Some city leaders in a Phoenix suburb are having second thoughts about spending $33 million for a new ballpark to lure the Cincinnati Reds to a new spring training home in Goodyear, Ariz.

"The issue is the money," said Councilwoman Joanne Osborne, who opposes paying for the new facilities. "It's about priorities. We don't have a downtown. We don't have a library. We don't have the things our citizens want and have asked for."

The Reds, whose current spring training home is in Sarasota, Fla., are interested in joining the Cactus League in 2010, but four Goodyear City Council members must agree to pay for the team's training facilities. Only three are on board.

Work has already begun in Goodyear on a stadium and practice facility for the Indians, who will move there next year from Winter Haven, Fla. To bring in the Indians, Goodyear split the $75 million cost for that project with the Arizona Sports and Tourism Authority."

I suspect that ultimately this won't halt a move, but it's the first little hiccup I've seen regarding joining the Cactus League.

http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/blog/index?name=spring_training

by Brendanukkah on Mar 24, 2008 10:20 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

sarasota
a little while ago, after the Reds entered their exclusive negotiating period with Arizona, Sarasota made some noise about approving the money.

At the time, it was seen as too little too late, but, who knows, the Reds could end up there after all.

by bobestes on Mar 24, 2008 2:05 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I'm an excellent test taker
  1. Yay! Uh, no actually. How'd we do in '09? Cueto.
  2. Ew. No. He should. Yes.
  3. Motorin! Probably.
  4. So he spread his slump out (consistency!). No. Until Frazier.
  5. I hope he wasn't leading off. Probably. I hear Carl Crawford's available.
  6. So the pitching is perfect? No!
  7. I'd say he's slimmer. 30.
  8. What's their pythagorus? Buy low sell high!
  9. Joy. Yup.
  10. Then it's probably rhetorical.

by Red Menace on Mar 24, 2008 10:48 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

I was going to give you a 70%
but then I noticed that you got the extra credit question right, so you got a 90%!  Good job.  Way to be clutch on your test taking.

Speaking of clutch, Tango's Great Clutch Project is calling.

Don't talk back to Darth Vader or he'll getcha!

by Slyde on Mar 24, 2008 10:57 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

A Hypothetical answer
What if Johnny Cueto pitches 230 innings this year and the Reds make the playoffs?  Is it worth the injury risk?  What if that happens and then in 2010 he has Tommy John surgery?  I'm not saying it's going to happen, rather, what is more valuable - a playoff appearance in 2008 or Johnny Cueto's future to the Reds?
Answer:  This is a tough question to answer because, truthfully, he doesn't have to pitch 230 innings to eventually blow out his elbow.  I think you have to always play for the playoffs if you believe you have a legitimate chance because you cannot predict when you'll have another chance.  Realistically, I would rather see him pitch about 180-200 innings, especially if our bullpen is improved.  

Since, in Dusty's words, "Votto is usually a slow starter," what if the Reds send Joey Votto down to Louisville to start the season until his bat heats up?  Is that a good strategy?  What if Votto starts out hot in Louisville?  Would you be pissed?
Answer:  Honestly, a week ago, I would have been a little irritated if Votto was our starting first baseman.  He has recently shown signs of life and, if that continues, I'm good with him coming north.  If not, I like the idea of starting him in Louisville to get his bat going.  Hatteberg has had an awesome spring and I would be fine with him starting the year as the first baseman, just to let Votto heat up.  If he started in Louisville and got hot, I wouldn't be upset because that would be the goal in starting him there.  He doesn't have to stay long, if he shows he is hitting.  

What if Adam Dunn finally hits 50 home runs in 2008?  Would he suddenly be priced out of the Reds budget?
Answer:  Good question.  Faye believes Dunn would sign for less than market value to stay with the Reds and that would be great.  However, if he hits 50 HR and continues to improve in his BA and strikeout rate, even slightly, I think Castellini finds a way to sign him.

What if this season Edwin Encarnacion puts up virtually the same numbers he did last season, but doesn't have the month long slump like he did last year?  Is that an improvement?  Should he still be the thirdbaseman of the future for the Reds?
Answer:  This is a great question that I have thought of myself.  If he has the same numbers as last year but in a more steady way, I think that is good.  However, if he doesn't improve at all, I'm not so sure he is CEMENTED as the Reds 3rd baseman of the future.  To me, this is a crossroads year for him.  When he is going well, I really like him but I think he must prove he can be consistent.

 What if Corey Patterson bats .280/.330/.450?  Is he the CF in 2009?  If not, who is?
Answer:  These numbers would show improvement on his career numbers, I believe.  If so, I think he has the inside track for CF next year.  I think the Reds see Bruce as a RF long-term.  If Patterson happens to hit .280/.360/.450, then I think we're onto something.  If he finally plays up to the hype, or even close, then Krivsky will have gotten lucky again on a reclamation project.  

 What if it appears that the only thing that is keeping the Reds from first place in July is the catching position?  Would you trade Votto or Bailey for someone like Kenji Johjima or Bengie Molina?  A lot depends on how Cueto and Volquez continue to progress.  If they do, Bailey might be expendable.  But, it also depends on those catchers.  I only trade for a catcher that is showing he could truly make a difference.  I don't trade for a catcher that is playing only marginally better than what we have.

 What if Todd Coffey is returning to 2006 form?  How many innings would it take you to believe that he should pitch in the 8th inning again?
Answer:  First, I don't put Coffey in the 8th at all this year, unless Weathers is hurt or just needs a day off.  But, Coffey returning to form would be a big shot in the arm for the 6th and 7th innings.  

 What if the Reds are 3 games under .500, but only 5 games out of the playoffs on July 15th?  Should they be buyers or sellers (selling Dunn, Weathers, Hatteberg, Freel, Gonzalez, etc.)?  
Answer:  If you have a legit shot, I'm a buyer.  Depends on how the year has gone.  If you started slow and are coming on, I'm a buyer.  If you start strong and are quickly fading, then perhaps you are a seller.

 What if the Reds finish in 3rd place at 81-81? Does Wayne Krivsky still have a job?  No way.

 What if this wasn't a hypothetical question?

by nighthawk32 on Mar 24, 2008 10:56 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Some quick replies
  1.  I picked 230 innings because I wanted to make it a realistic number that also felt high for such a young pitcher.  Obviously you don't know what the future holds, but look at how Cubs fans despise Baker for the perceived destruction of Prior/Wood.  Would Reds fans react similarly?
  2.  When he is going well, I really like him - I know what you mean, I'm the same way with every player on the Reds.
  3.  What if I told you that Patterson's "improvement" was due to 3 factors - (1) Playing in GABP  (2) Increasing his walk rate ever so slightly over his career 4.7% rate to 6.4%   (3) Being hit lucky to the tune of a .330 BABIP?  Those were the only adjustments that I made to his career numbers.  
  4.  The example of this question is not very clear, so I'll come out and state that the point is, would you trade a youngster for an older player likely to decline or who is a free agent at the end of the year if it meant fixing an obvious, immediate flaw in a potentially contending team?
  5.  What if the Reds are consistently a 3 games below .500 team, never getting more than 2 games over or 5 games under?
  6.  So a 9-game improvement over 2007 is not enough?
Don't talk back to Darth Vader or he'll getcha!

by Slyde on Mar 24, 2008 11:33 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

81-81 ?!?
I just spent $53 on new Reds hats for everyone in my family (aside from myself) and I'm expecting at least a 1.58 W/h$ ratio.

by Fat Vegas Alan on Mar 24, 2008 4:37 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Thankfully for the Reds
You didn't go all out on your hat purchases.
Don't talk back to Darth Vader or he'll getcha!

by Slyde on Mar 24, 2008 4:42 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I hope I do better on this than the NCAA pool
   1. What if Johnny Cueto pitches 230 innings etc - I don't think that will happen. Jockerty is here for a reason and it is my guess that he'll be a rookie watchdog.

   2. What if the Reds send Joey Votto down to Louisville to start the season until his bat heats up?  Is that a good strategy?  Not is my estimation. Votto needs to play at the MLB level, even if he's not in the lineup every day.

   3. What if Adam Dunn finally hits 50 home runs in 2008? Unfortunately that could happen. Big Bob wants to win but I don't think that he'd put up the really 'bib big' money for Donkey.

   4. What if this season Edwin Encarnacion puts up virtually the same numbers he did last season, but doesn't have the month long slump like he did last year?  Is that an improvement?  Should he still be the thirdbaseman of the future for the Reds? Yes and Yes

   5.  What if Corey Patterson bats .280/.330/.450?  Is he the CF in 2009?  If not, who is? Could be if Dunn is traded and Bruce is ready.

   6.  What if it appears that the only thing that is keeping the Reds from first place in July is the catching position?  Would you trade Votto or Bailey for someone like Kenji Johjima or Bengie Molina? No. Ross is a good game caller and defender. He's got some pop and is always dangerous.

   7.  What if Todd Coffey is returning to 2006 form?  How many innings would it take you to believe that he should pitch in the 8th inning again? - 6,000 innings, he just doesn't have the makeup.

   8.  What if the Reds are 3 games under .500, but only 5 games out of the playoffs on July 15th?  Should they be buyers or sellers (selling Dunn, Weathers, Hatteberg, Freel, Gonzalez, etc.)?-- Hard to answer without more hypothetical information. But in general Freel, Hatte,and/or Gonzo for the right componenet player(s) - Absolutely.

   9.  What if the Reds finish in 3rd place at 81-81? Does Wayne Krivsky still have a job? Probably. Although with Uncle Walt lurking in the shadows maybe not.

  10.  What if this wasn't a hypothetical question? Then it would be an exercise in tragic realism.

The most important fact about a free market is that no exchange takes place unless both parties benefit. Milton Friedman

by Madville on Mar 24, 2008 11:48 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Jockerty is here for a reason.
Matt Morris, at age 22, threw 217 innings his rookie year in 1997.

In 1998 he threw 113 in 17 starts, averaging 6.65 innings/start.  He had Tommy John Surgery and did not pitch 1999.

He pitched 53 innings all in relief in 2000.

His first full year back as a starter in 2001 he threw 216 innings, and he threw 210 innings in 2002.  

I am guessing that is why at the age of 33 his arm is cooked.  He did not really get a chance to build his arm back up to a 200 inning workload after his TJ.

Plus pitchers who threw alot of innings when that early in their careers (especially when they are only 22) tend to really hit a wall around the age of 28.

The Dusty path to the World Series! (This is not an endorsement.)

by justin0070000 on Mar 25, 2008 12:24 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I'll play
  1. I hope the decision to protect Cueto's arm begins before we even know if we have a shot at the playoffs... meaning, I hope they limit his innings from his first start.  I'd have him on some kind of pitch count.
  2. No, you start Votto with the big club and he opens up at first base next Monday.  He needs to start learning how to handle issues as a big league player.  Baker says he's a slow starter... is there really enough evidence to back that up?  Actually, Votto has a few hits these past few games anyway.  If Hatteburg isn't on the bench, then we have absolutely no one on that bench I'd feel good about in late innings.
  3. I hope Adam Dunn hits 50 HRs this year as I plan to put him on my fantasy team - its not a draft league.  He is probably priced out of the Reds budget already unless he is willing to take a cut rate to stay.
  4. Edwin is the 3B until somebody better comes along.  I think that should hold true at every position.
  5. Count me down as someone naive enough to be rooting for Corey Patterson this year.  He has the tools, but has never put it all together.  He could be a comeback player of the year candidate, or else, he's back to the bench in about a month for The Bruce!  I'm willing to hope for the best - even if that means Bruce plays another year in the minors.  I see Bruce in RF next year anyway.
  6. Catcher?!  We're talking 'bout... catcher?!!  (Now just imagine Alan Iverson saying it.)
  7. That would be great to see Coffey become a contributor.  I agree with the earlier post.  He hopefully won't be needed in the 8th because Weathers is doing the job, but its starting to look like we may need a new candidate for that 7th inning position.
  8.  Buyers.  Making the playoffs would be great, but I wouldn't sell the future for a quick first round exit.  A sub-.500 team ain't making the World Series, and that should be the goal.
  9.  I think that would be acceptable.  I don't think this is a playoff team yet.  I'd like to see Cueto, Volquez and Bailey get some time under their belts.  But the next two years should be fun.  And I'd keep Krivsky.
  10.  Are you implying you have some kind of time travel ability where you have traveled 4 months into the future where you can begin to see all of these patterns emerging, but don't how to set the time machine to October to find out if any of them actually worked out that way and so this is maybe hypothetical, but maybe not, but you don't know for sure?  Is that what you are doing here?
Quick! Somebody make a Cincinnati loves Ken Griffey Jr. too! video

by TheC on Mar 24, 2008 11:54 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Okay salesman.
  1. Should that happen, we'll do the same thing that Cubs fans did. We'll be pleased to make the playoffs, we'll perhaps have some doubts about the excessive innings but in the end we'll say that the ends justify the means. Then, in 2010, when Cueto has Tommy John surgery, we will crucify Dusty Baker (probably rightly so), blame him for ruining a great young arm (probably rightly so), and deny that we ever supported said abuse in pursuit of our 2008 NLDS exit.
  2. It seems that Votto's bat has already started heating up. He hasn't earned the 1B job (and one could easily argue that Hatteberg has), but I'd still be irritated if it didn't go to him. Unless the team has serious doubts about Votto's ability to hit in the future, keeping him in the minors just seems like an unnecessary lack of patience with a future cornerstone of the team. I feel sorry for Scotty, as he's pretty much done nothing but hit since arriving on the team and still hasn't shown any signs of slowing down, but it's time for us to go Canadian.
  3. The fact that the Reds haven't even tried to get any contract talks going tells me they're not planning on keeping him at all. Teams (and players) usually like to avoid negotiations during the season, and if we wait until after the year I see some issues. If Dunn hits .240, piles up more strikeouts than he did last year, and his defense regresses any, the Reds will use that performance to justify not re-signing him. If he takes a leap forward, hits .270 with 50 homers and some pretty big RBI numbers, they'll use that performance to justify it saying he has priced himself out of their range. I may very well just be being cynical about Castellini (as well as Krivsky and Dusty's philosophies), but I think the only shot Dunn has at coming back to this team is something right along the lines of what he did last year: .261, 42 HR, 109 RBI, and some improved defense.
  4. Developing consistency is an improvement, but I'd be disappointed with that kind of season out of Edwin. I'd have to think he'd still be the 3B of the future by default, but he would no longer be regarded as a key piece to the team. I suspect his name would emerge in a lot of trade rumors next offseason though he ultimately wouldn't move. Then we'd go into next season with him being touted as a breakout candidate and whatnot. I think that similar numbers to last year would disappoint, but really do nothing but put him in a bit of a holding pattern.
  5. If Corey Patterson hits .280/.330/.450 this year, I'm betting he cashes in in free agency and thus would not be part of our team in 2009. I don't think CF will go to Bruce (as he'll be replacing Griffey in RF), so unless Stubbs has a big year and is able to end with some strong numbers in AA, I'm guessing Patterson's replacement would come from outside of the organization.
  6. No on both counts, especially Molina. I'd happily try to trade for them, but moving major league ready prospects for old, slightly above average catchers is a move the Reds can't afford to make. I'd explore trade routes with lower level prospects, but if the Reds are going to be in a position that close to first this year, I think Votto and Bailey will have something to do with it.
  7. I actually think Coffey will return to his prior form. I wouldn't put an inning count on him returning to the 8th, but rather, if Burton and Weathers (and perhaps Bray) were to falter and Coffey is pitching well, he'd deserve a shot. I still think he's got it in him to be a good pitcher, and I won't write him off because of one bad year like a lot of people seem to want to do with him and Freel.
  8. What they should do is something that's tough to tell in a hypothetical, but I can tell you right now that if the Reds are 5 games out of the playoffs come July, there is absolutely no way they'll be sellers regardless of their record. I actually think that that's the situation we're most likely to be buyers in, with Wayner hoping to give the team a boost by acquiring somebody likely mediocre and old but with a big name.
  9. That's a tough one. I think if the general sentiment is that the Reds should've done more than finish .500 (let's say they were in a position for a playoff spot in July but faltered some the last two months either because of a lack of moves or because of some bad moves), he'll have a hard time sticking around, but if most people are pleased with a non-losing season (and I suspect they will be), we'll get to enjoy Sweaterpants for another year, albeit on thin ice -- if the Reds don't get a playoff spot by 2009, Wayne will not be around in 2010.
  10. Then you would be a witch and thus would have to be burned.

by Geki on Mar 24, 2008 12:52 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

As my first statement as the 2008 RR JNPBK-i-A
I can assure you that the .gif monkey will not be posting such filth during the first three game threads of this coming season.  Pictures like this, however, are perfectly acceptable.

"My wife ain't never ran and got me no pheasant." - Fistbands

by BK on Mar 24, 2008 4:52 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Also
Anyone else wondering who this "Brian" is?
"My wife ain't never ran and got me no pheasant." - Fistbands

by BK on Mar 24, 2008 4:58 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Ready to get your heart broken?
If you didn't already know, the comely Megan Fox is dating '90s whodat Brian Austin Green.  Clearly she's the best thing he's been in since 90210.

by Brendanukkah on Mar 24, 2008 5:08 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Damn you
Faster by a minute. :)

by jch24 on Mar 24, 2008 5:11 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Oh. My. Gods.
Wonder no longer. You can't make this sort of thing up:

Mystery Brian

PS - If you already knew, my apologies. I had no idea, and am now totally depressed. Because, you know, I had a chance.

by jch24 on Mar 24, 2008 5:09 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Wow
How did I not know he was in the new Terminator show???  Or maybe I did and just repressed it.  Anyway, I have to go back and watch the ones that my roomates Tivo'd.

Also Sarah Connor Chronicle related: Summer Glau.

by Brendanukkah on Mar 24, 2008 5:14 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I've been wondering
How are they going to avoid the obvious "Young John Connor screws his cute robot protector" story?

by jch24 on Mar 24, 2008 5:25 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

If I could turn back time
and not click this diary again...
Don't talk back to Darth Vader or he'll getcha!

by Slyde on Mar 24, 2008 4:54 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

in defense of cher
that lady is still getting it done. I watched stuck on you the other day and had three thoughts: this movie is funnier than I remembered; eva mendes, omg; and cher, getting it done.
Marty may have a shirt on, but Billy Beane just ripped his off and is squeezing his nipples. - Brendan's ukkah

by boobs on Mar 24, 2008 5:30 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Intersting thing about Eva Mendes...
..if you remove all of her makeup, she's actually Bernie Williams.

by Fat Vegas Alan on Mar 24, 2008 5:42 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

One week?
I'm excited to get up early tomorrow to watch some real baseball.  

No. 3 - I think Dunn is more likely to return if he has a good year assuming that the team continues to think it can contend.  Given the contracts for Harang, Arroyo, Cordero and Phillips, they're not thinking of rebuilding.  And with EdE, Bruce, Votto, Bailey, Volquez and Cueto they should get relatively cheap production that will help balance the heavier contracts on the payroll.  If Dunn has a monster year, they'll realize that they can't come close to filling his absence in the lineup and that they need him to contend.  And with Junior gone, the OF defense will be less of a sore spot.  

Of course, all bets are off if the Yankees or Sox swoop in with an 8/160 offer.  But Dunn will have some competition next winter with at least Teixeira and Burrell on the market, so it's not like he's going to be the only belle of the ball.  

by ken on Mar 24, 2008 3:26 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

here goes
  1. No
  2. No
  3. Yes
Reds fan for 40 years!

by gejoe on Mar 24, 2008 3:27 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

somehow I hit "Post."
Reds fan for 40 years!

by gejoe on Mar 24, 2008 3:31 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Her goes
  1. No
  2. No
  3. Yes
  4. Yes
  5. No
  6. No
  7. 15-20
  8. Buyers
  9. Yes
  10. What if there were no hypothetical questions?
Reds fan for 40 years!

by gejoe on Mar 24, 2008 3:30 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

"Her" =
Here
Reds fan for 40 years!

by gejoe on Mar 24, 2008 3:31 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Third times a charm
If you want..... :)
Quick! Somebody make a Cincinnati loves Ken Griffey Jr. too! video

by TheC on Mar 24, 2008 3:44 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Unrelated
Sounds like Sean Casey isn't quite in regular season shape yet:  

The 18-hour flight that brought the Boston Red Sox to Tokyo claimed one victim when Sean Casey developed a stiff neck that is expected to keep him out of the first two games of the season against the Oakland Athletics.

Also, I see that Lopez and da meat hook are available.

by ken on Mar 24, 2008 4:40 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Dmitri?!
Didn't they just give him a 10 million cheeseburger contract?

by Fat Vegas Alan on Mar 24, 2008 4:50 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

It's all deferred
They don't owe him until Tuesday.

by ken on Mar 24, 2008 5:02 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

It's a 2007 starter clearance sale
John Patterson, their opening day starter last year, was already waived by the Nats.

by Brendanukkah on Mar 24, 2008 5:10 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

patterson
"What if Corey Patterson bats .280/.330/.450?"

not a chance

by em3 on Mar 24, 2008 4:57 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

One of the ESPN analysts
Predicted him to go 30/30 this year.  While that's a little farfetched, I don't think it's out of the question that Patterson has a solid year at the plate, especially considering as long as he's hitting, Dusty will get him as many at-bats as possible.
"My wife ain't never ran and got me no pheasant." - Fistbands

by BK on Mar 24, 2008 5:00 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Responses
   1. What if Johnny Cueto pitches 230 innings this year and the Reds make the playoffs?  Is it worth the injury risk?  What if that happens and then in 2010 he has Tommy John surgery?  I'm not saying it's going to happen, rather, what is more valuable - a playoff appearance in 2008 or Johnny Cueto's future to the Reds?
The future of Cueto is a lot more important than a playoff spot in 2008.

  2. Since, in Dusty's words, "Votto is usually a slow starter," what if the Reds send Joey Votto down to Louisville to start the season until his bat heats up?  Is that a good strategy?  What if Votto starts out hot in Louisville?  Would you be pissed?
It would be a bad strategy either way.

   3. What if Adam Dunn finally hits 50 home runs in 2008?  Would he suddenly be priced out of the Reds budget?
Unless he agrees to play first base, or play LF for 12 million a year, I don't think its smart to sign him either way. If he wants to play first base and not destroy our outfield, then sign me up for 4 years and 65-70 million. If he doesn't want to play first base.... best of luck to ya big guy.


   4. What if this season Edwin Encarnacion puts up virtually the same numbers he did last season, but doesn't have the month long slump like he did last year?  Is that an improvement?  Should he still be the thirdbaseman of the future for the Reds?

He would still be the third baseman of the future, and the present. It would be a little disappointing if he stagnated, but wouldn't be brutal as he was fine all in all last season


   5.  What if Corey Patterson bats .280/.330/.450?  Is he the CF in 2009?  If not, who is?

Absolutely he should be if he puts up that line.

   6.  What if it appears that the only thing that is keeping the Reds from first place in July is the catching position?  Would you trade Votto or Bailey for someone like Kenji Johjima or Bengie Molina?
No, I wouldn't. Not for a run this year, where I think its going to be almost impossible to win a WS

   7.  What if Todd Coffey is returning to 2006 form?  How many innings would it take you to believe that he should pitch in the 8th inning again?
40

  8.  What if the Reds are 3 games under .500, but only 5 games out of the playoffs on July 15th?  Should they be buyers or sellers (selling Dunn, Weathers, Hatteberg, Freel, Gonzalez, etc.)?
Probably stay stagnate. You can't sell because the fan base will revolt, but you can't buy because you know you aren't winning much even if somehow you do make the playoffs and you can't risk the future for something like that

  9.  What if the Reds finish in 3rd place at 81-81? Does Wayne Krivsky still have a job?
He should

  10.  What if this wasn't a hypothetical question?
then crap, I wasted time answering hypotheticals that actually weren't

www.redsminorleagues.com

by dougdirt on Mar 24, 2008 6:13 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

here's another hypothetical question
If the Reds go to the World Series, will people shut up about Dusty?

i sure hope coffey returns to form.  i've given up on him - almost.  i remember when i was rooting for him to become the closer.  now, i want him to have another chance, but it should be the last chance.

by Daedalus on Mar 24, 2008 7:06 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

If the Reds go to the WS
I will embrace Dusty. But then again, I've sold my soul 143 times before at last count.

by jch24 on Mar 24, 2008 7:44 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

143 times?
Wow, you must have a huge house with a hot tub and at least one sexy wife, right?

by Fat Vegas Alan on Mar 24, 2008 7:48 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Nope
143 "last packs of cigarettes, I swear."
Don't talk back to Darth Vader or he'll getcha!

by Slyde on Mar 24, 2008 7:58 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

What I do
in the bathroom of the machine room is none of your concern, good sir. :)

by jch24 on Mar 24, 2008 8:31 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

If the Reds go to the WS
it will be in spite of Dusty and not becasue of him
The most important fact about a free market is that no exchange takes place unless both parties benefit. Milton Friedman

by Madville on Mar 24, 2008 9:20 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

hahaha
Stanton mentioned having a cheeseburger at home, drink!

by jch24 on Mar 24, 2008 8:33 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

I'm an idiot
Thought I was in the game thread. I blame to booze.

by jch24 on Mar 24, 2008 8:38 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

answers to lifes persistant questions
  1.  I believe the Reds should be cautious with Cueto.  I want him to make no more than 32 starts, throwing between 90-105 pitches each start, with the ocassional breather of maybe 75 or 80 if the Reds get a big lead, or the bullpen is good.  If the Reds are in a tight race in September, and Cueto is getting close to the danger zone, and Bailey makes some strides this season, and the other four are doing there job, I would almost like to see a 6 man rotation.  I almost hope that Cueto will have some minor injury like maybe a broken finger that will put him on the DL for the minimum, and give him two weeks off.
  2.  I am not sure what I think about Votto.  I was never as high on him as many people around here.  I think he will be a quality first baseman, but I have no reason to believe he will be a star.  I think he will probably hit 15-20 homeruns a year, and hit about .295.  Sean Casey-esque.  If he is obvisously struggling no reason to compound that with the Big Leagues, let him go to AAA and get his stroke back.  I don't think Dusty knew that Votto had a slow start last yaer because he needed glasses.
  3.  Probably, I would love to see him hit 500 homeruns in Cincinnati though, he is on pace to do that between 2012-2014.  But to contridict myself I do not think it is wise to sign him beyond 4 years.  Maybe 4 year extension with a one year club option would, that would make me happy.
4.I think he is likely to put up his second half numbers.  I am guessing overall he wil hit around .290, with 20 homeruns.  He is a quailty offensive piece, just not a superstar.
  1. No reason not to.  With Griffey almost diffently gone, somebody will have to fill that spot.  Hopefully Dunn will be in left.
  2. Nope, no reason to sell the farm to lose in the NLDS, when if this team continues to improve, could be a world series contender in 2009.  It is weird to think about the Reds and a World Series.  I am so used to thinking about the Reds and just staying in the race until September.
  3.  I am going to say a month-6 weeks.  If by the middle of May he is going well I will be comfortable with him.  I know that isn't a number, but I am my own man.
  4.  Sell.  I am sure they can get something for Weathers if he continues to pitch as he has the last 3 years, same for Hatteberg.  Gonzo might only catch some sea bass, maybe we trade Dunn, with a contract worked out that he will sign on the first day of free agency.  That isn't practicle so only trade Dunn if it is painfully clear he will not be resigned.
  5.  I would think so.  I don't really want to jump horses in mid-stream.  The process seems to be working.  If everything falls apart, and there are devistating injuries to somone like Bailey, or Cueto, and Bruce and what not, and the process would need to restart I saw we fire him.  I hope Bob understands that this team is a team for 2009 and 2010, not 2008.
The Dusty path to the World Series! (This is not an endorsement.)

by justin0070000 on Mar 25, 2008 12:22 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

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