Who are you, and what the hell have you done with John Fay?

by BLee2525 on Mar 23, 2008 9:11 AM EDT Comment 20 comments

Dunn Has Shown He Deserves Long-Term Deal

Highlights:

Those of you who like the "Moneyball" numbers game love Dunn. His OPS (on-base percentage plus slugging percentage) annually is among the best in baseball.

He's 22nd in the category among active players. Only three players under age 30 are above him - No. 2 Albert Pujols, No. 14 Miguel Cabrera and No. 20 Mark Teixeira.

I think OPS is much more important than batting average. I also think the most overlooked stat in baseball is games played.

He's a guy who always has been liked by everyone who covers the team on a daily basis, although not so much by some columnists. (Ed. - Whoever could he mean?)

If the Reds win early and Dunn performs as usual - 40 home runs, 100 RBI, 100 runs and 100 walks - Castellini will work out a deal.

The Fay, I take back most of the nasty things I ever said about you.

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Comments

Well, it is Fay.

Maybe he left out "doesn't".

by Geki on Mar 23, 2008 10:27 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

i think the most suprising part

is that even after 3 reads, i see no typos. this most certainly is some kind of johnfaydoppleganger.

by Charlie Scrabbles on Mar 23, 2008 10:59 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

doc got called the fuck out

The Dusty path to the World Series! (This is not an endorsement.)

by justin0070000 on Mar 23, 2008 11:07 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

It takes him a while

but Fay finally gets there.

by pw on Mar 23, 2008 12:35 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I forgot my favorite part

As much as I like Dunn, I'm not sure I would have advocated signing him long-term three or four years ago.

Dunn 4 years ago: .266/.388/.569, 146OPS+ 105R, 46HR, 101RBI, 195K Not worth a contract extension

Dunn 3 years ago: .247/.387/.540, 141OPS+ 107R, 40HR, 101RBI, 168K Not worth a contract extension

Dunn last year: .264/.386/.554, 136OPS+ 101R, 40HR, 106 RBI, 165K Worth a contract extension

Dunn is the same player he's always been. The only thing that has changed that makes him worth a contract extension now is your perception, Fay.

"Karma - there it was. The meaning of life, straight from Carson Daly's lips to my morphine-laced ears." -Earl Hickey

by BLee2525 on Mar 23, 2008 1:38 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

To be fair

he does go on to talk about Dunn maturing, working to improve his defense, becoming a leader, blah blah blah blah.

by Geki on Mar 23, 2008 1:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

When the Reds were running Paul Wilson out as their #1 and the only thing keeping them out of the basement was the Pirates, Dunn was "lazy" and "didn't care." Now that the Reds are suddenly young, exciting, and a trendy playoff pick, he's "keeping the clubhouse loose."

When they were picked to finish 5th, he was "setting the wrong example." When they're picked to finish within spitting distance of the division title, he's "a leader."

I often make fun of ESPN's coverage of the Yankees. When they're winning, it's "professionalism." When they're losing, it's "a lack of passion." THEY'RE THE SAME FUCKING THING.

Fay's picking out things that you can't really argue about to justify the conclusion that he's already made up in his mind. I'm being a little snarky about it, but I'm actually trying to pay Fay a compliment. He's no longer letting the selective memory of Dunn's failures cloud his analysis of Dunn's value to the team. That's a good thing, if for no other reason than the fact that it leads to less of the Daugherty brand of asshattery we've been subjected to over the last few years.

"Karma - there it was. The meaning of life, straight from Carson Daly's lips to my morphine-laced ears." -Earl Hickey

by BLee2525 on Mar 23, 2008 2:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Well...

One could argue that the fact he has demonstrated such consistency makes a long term deal seem worth it now as opposed to three years ago. One could argue...

Quick! Somebody make a Cincinnati loves Ken Griffey Jr. too! video

by TheC on Mar 23, 2008 3:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I don't think I've ever mentioned this here

but I'd be fine with the Reds letting Dunn go. Since first base should be covered for the future they really have no position for him. It's tough because I've spent so long arguing on Dunn's behalf against those who just don't get it, but I doubt he earns the money he'd get into his mid 30s if he can't DH.

by Red Menace on Mar 23, 2008 9:12 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

So if you're willing to let him go..

..you're gonna be willing to trade him, yes?

I was thinking about this earlier tonight as I read one of Dunn's profiles in a fantasy baseball magazine: If Dunn hits 45-55 HRs this year and keeps his BA above .260, he could get a crazy contract and I don't think the Reds are gonna be in a position to spend crazy money. (Although I guess they're gonna have quite a few young players under cost-controlled contracts for awhile.) So, perhaps Reds fans who want to bring Dunn back might hope for a .245 36 HR season in '08.

by Fat Vegas Alan on Mar 23, 2008 9:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think if he hits .240, we just let him go.

Something along the lines of what he did last year is the best bet for him getting re-signed in my opinion. But I don't think it happens either way, since he's not a Krivsky style player. Then again, if the Reds win 75 or less games this year, I don't think Wayner is the GM come next offseason.

by Geki on Mar 23, 2008 11:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I've had the same thoughts

I'm not confident that he's going to age well, and anything above a 3-year deal feels like a huge risk to me.

That being said, I think they will need his offense desperately next season. I think his skills at the plate serve as a good catalyst for the offense, and once he's gone the closest player to his combined skills at this point might be Votto, and his power will be a big drop-off. With Dunn next season, the team has a chance at a plus offense. Without him, it's looking meh at this point.

And I understand the arguments that people like dougdirt and JinAZ make about his defense canceling out a good portion of his offense, but I've never felt comfortable with applying runs like that at the individual level. I think if you can put 2 strong defenders in the other outfield spots (say, Bruce in RF and Stubbs in CF, for example), you might be able to cover up a poor defender like Dunn. I think a single player's defensive and offensive flaws can be covered up some if you have the ability to make proper adjustments elsewhere in the lineup.

Ultimately, I think the deciding factor on whether the Reds try to resign Dunn might just be the performance of EdE, BP, Bruce, and Votto. If all of those guys show that they can perform at a high level at the plate this season, Krivsky might be more likely to take a chance on not spending big money on Dunn.

Don't talk back to Darth Vader or he'll getcha!

by Slyde on Mar 24, 2008 9:02 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'd worry about the offense in '09 too

but you probably can't bring Dunn back without committing to 5 years or so.

The worst part is the Reds are looking up and I know I'm going to end up arguing with people who think they got better because Dunn left.

by Red Menace on Mar 24, 2008 10:54 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I know what you mean

but I figure at that point we'll be too busy drinking to victories every night to worry about Michael Diaries entitled: "The Reds folded on Dunn and then learned to score in the paint"

Don't talk back to Darth Vader or he'll getcha!

by Slyde on Mar 24, 2008 11:03 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

i think another thing to consider

is where that money will go in the hypothetical absense of dunn. if he is not re-signed, and JRs option is not picked up (which i think barring a meteoric year from him is a foregone conclusion) how will that money be spent? some will end up in the pockets of harang, arroyo, phillips, EE and the like in the form of raises, but that still leaves a pretty penny left that will not go unspent. baseball teams dont save money. the reds will be players in the FA market next winter, and we have to ask ourselves who that money will be best spent on. i'll link to trade rumor tim's list of 2009 free agents here:
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2007/12/2009-mlb-free-a.html
dunn, sabathia, oliver perez, and sheets are the only names on that list that i would give serious moolah to, at varying degrees of seriousness. but i think it isnt totally absurd to say that dunn would most likely be the most efficient use of said funds. i can see 5 years doing it for him, where the pitchers would be more of a gamble at that length and would most likely demand more. so if not dunn, then who? i say pay him, cuz we wont find anyone else at that price to do what he does.

by Charlie Scrabbles on Mar 24, 2008 8:31 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

By my count

The Reds have $13.7 million in guaranteed raises for next season (Arroyo, Cordero, Harang, Gonzalez, Phillips, and Freel), not counting arbitration players (EdE, Belisle, Coffey). They also have another $5 million in buyouts (Griffey, Castro, Stanton, Ross). And then they have $42 million coming off the books. Total net of about $23+ million, but they won't have a catcher and the bullpen will have some holes (Weathers, Stanton, Affeldt are all off the books). There is definitely some room to play though.

Don't talk back to Darth Vader or he'll getcha!

by Slyde on Mar 24, 2008 8:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs