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ESPN on Cordero and the Reds' Bullpen

This latest piece by Jayson Stark on ESPN is certainly nothing new and we have hashed it up pretty good when the signing was made, but it is still nice to see a full length piece on ESPN about a team not in New York or Boston.  And that it is about our Reds is even more intriguing.

Star-divide

Stark now gets around to praising the Cordero signing as one of the most significant in baseball this past off-season.  A little late, but still a nice read for Reds' fans.

* This is a team that led more games at the end of the fifth inning last year (75) than the New York Mets, Chicago Cubs and Arizona Diamondbacks (among others). You could look it up.

* This is a team that got outscored by 71 runs after the seventh inning last season and by 92 runs after the sixth.

Ugly bullpen numbers blow up entire teams.

Ain't that the damn truth.  We all know this, but as I struggle to become optimistic about the upcoming season, to see these points reiterated is reassuring.  Maybe this team will compete this year.  But, for that to happen, our bullpen needs to go from being a drag on this team to a real strength.  Are the pieces there?

Cordero doesn't need to be a shutdown, dominant closer, but he needs to be solid.  Based on his history, I think its clear we'll have a few frustrating blown saves this season, but that is ok if he can go out there and notch about 30+ for us and especially in big games against division rivals or late in the year.

Weathers needs to continue being consistent and rise to his new role as set-up man as well as he rose to the occassion last year as a fill-in closer.  I have confidence in Weathers, though he is getting old and you never know when he will start to fade.

Burton needs to continue to grow into that dominant, shutdown reliever that takes the ball in the 7th and zips through that inning without a whiff of a threat.  He is the key guy in all this.  He has had a rough spring, but who knows why.  I think he showed enough last year to make you feel optimistic.

If Bray can emerge as a solid lefty situational guy, then I can see him playing a big role getting our righty starters out of a jam as they work into the later innnings.  And wouldn't it be nice to see someone like Coffey return to form?

If all this happens, what will it mean for our starters?

"When you've got 105 pitches and you've thrown six [innings]," Arroyo said, "and you feel like, 'All right. I've got the game where I want it, but maybe I don't have enough stuff right now' ... the last two years, I felt like I still had to take the ball because we had so many problems in the seventh and eighth innings. ... Now, hopefully, I'll be confident enough to come out after six innings, maybe being a little tired, and hand the ball over to the bullpen, instead of trying to muster up an extra inning."

If we can actually reduce the number of innings our starters throw (and that will be essential if we have two rookies in the rotation), then a bullpen that is a strength could really change our entire pitching outlook.  I really like Harang and Arroyo.  With the proper late inning support, there is no reason these guys can't win a lot of games.  And Arroyo, especially, can get out while he's still ahead.

Finally, one other point that Stark didn't really address, but seems to be an important development... this team may go as far as Cueto and Volquez can keep up.  It sure seems like Cordero has become an important mentor for these two and a team leader in general.  It is hard to calculate the off-field value of players sometimes, but there is a chance his role in the bullpen extends beyond just recording the last 3 outs of the game.  

We shall see.....

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Arroyo
Yeah, I was most intrigued by Arroyo's comments in the article.  I don't often realize the ripple effect the bullpen has on the rest of the pitching staff, so this piece was enlightening in that way.  I wonder, can anyone get Arroyo's splits for, say, his first several innings and then his last inning of every game?  That last inning would be different for each outing, so that might be tough.
Youth wins games; veteran presence wins championships.

by ben nevis on Mar 20, 2008 10:39 AM EDT reply actions  

Just looking at the last inning
probably wouldn't be fair since a starter's last inning tends to be his last inning for a reason.

Here is the breakdown by pitch count range from 2007:

Split   G   PA   AB   R   H  2B 3B HR  BB IBB  SO HBP  SH  SF ROE GDP   BA   OBP   SLG   OPS  BAbip sOPS+  tOPS+
------+---+----+----+---+---+--+--+--+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+-----+-----+-----+-----+-----+ -----+-----
1-25    34  208  182  21  54 16  0  5  16   0  33   7   1   2   1   3  .297  .372  .467  .839  .336   124   114
26-50   34  231  204  18  39  9  1  4  23   2  47   2   1   1   1   4  .191  .278  .304  .582  .227    56    50
51-75   34  232  217  26  68 12  0  7   6   0  40   2   4   3   1   2  .313  .333  .465  .799  .353   110   102
76-100  32  195  175  24  48 14  1  7  13   4  30   2   4   1   2   3  .274  .330  .486  .816  .295   100   106
101+    17   55   50  14  23  2  0  5   5   0   6   0   0   0   2   0  .460  .509  .800 1.309  .462   247   228

Don't talk back to Darth Vader or he'll getcha!

by Slyde on Mar 20, 2008 11:35 AM EDT up reply actions  

You can get those kind of splits
I'm pretty sure, but I here are his simple 2007 splits by pitch count. There are some obvious problems in isolating a pitcher's performance this way, but it should provide a little context.

PtchC    BAA    OBPA   SLgA   OPSA
1-25:     .297    .372     .467     .839
26-50:   .191    .278     .304     .582
51-75:   .313    .333     .465     .799
75-100: .274    .330     .486     .816
101+:    .460    .509     .800    1.309

I'm not sure of this, but having eyeballed a number of these pitching count splits over the past year, I think Arroyo's tendencies seem fairly average.

Most legitimate major league pitchers put up their best numbers between pitches 26-50. If they're having a shitfest of a game, they're likely pulled by then.

But you can see that Arroyo has some significant jumps. The 101+ jump stands out, but it's only 55 PAs and, hey, it just means Arroyo was like most pitchers last season going over 100 pitches.

What stands out more to me is the 51+ jump, particularly in OPS. I'm assuming these numbers are due in large part to the infamous starts last summer following Arroyo's 130 pitch shitstravaganza--those games in which he lost gas earlier than usual.

BUT I'm just guessing. I could check that with game logues, but I'm about to ditch work for the Tourney.

I'm a man of genius. I can afford to drool on you.

by Man Mountain on Mar 20, 2008 12:05 PM EDT up reply actions  

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