FanPost

PECOTA and the Reds Lineup

For subscribers to Baseball Prospectus, the PECOTA weighted means spreadsheet was released late last week.  It gives us the last of the big online projection systems, following Marcel, Chone, and ZiPS.  I'd say that these are probably the most optimistic projections for the Reds so far.  

Here are some rates for the likely key hitters this season:

 Last            BA    OBP    SLG
 Dunn          .261   .388   .549
 Encarnacion   .285   .356   .493
 Bruce         .269   .336   .512
 Votto         .278   .357   .494
 Keppinger     .305   .364   .418
 B. Phillips   .274   .325   .444
 Griffey       .268   .350   .480
 Gonzalez      .261   .315   .424
 Hatteberg     .285   .368   .440
 A. Phillips   .264   .334   .438
 Valentin      .269   .333   .424
 Ross          .235   .310   .448
 Dickerson     .240   .319   .408
 Freel         .261   .334   .371
 Hopper        .288   .334   .342

The season that really sticks out is Bruce's, as PECOTA has him hitting 45 doubles, 29 home runs, and leading the team with 99 RBI (it is assuming he plays the entire season with the big squad).  That is easily the most optimistic projection of any of the systems for Bruce.

I tried to figure out how the above numbers would translate into a lineup and scoring offense.  Let's just say that it all depends on the personnel that Dusty puts on the field.

I started with what I figure is the most likely lineup of
Freel
Phillips
Griffey
EdE
Dunn
Gonzalez
Votto
Ross
Pitcher

I loaded this lineup into David Pinto's lineup tool, and that specific lineup projected to 4.699 R/G, or 761 runs for the season, a 22 run decline from last season.  As you'll see from the link, the most efficient configuration of that lineup will just barely get to 800 runs for the season, but that is not a lineup I would ever expect to see from Dusty.

Next, I tried substituting Jeff Keppinger for Alex Gonzalez, since offensively, there is a huge gap between the two players.  (NOTE: I also tried switching Freel and Hopper as well as Ross and LLM, but neither change had much of an effect).  Here is the lineup that I input:
Freel
Keppinger
Griffey
Phillips
Dunn
EdE
Votto
Ross
Pitcher

That lineup improved to 4.762 R/G, or 771 runs for the season.  That's about a win better than the previous lineup.  The most efficient lineup actually put the Reds up to 816 runs for the season, and it's a much more realistic lineup, though I still don't think I see Dusty implementing it.

Finally, I put the top offensive player in at each position, in an attempt to maximize runs.  This is the lineup I used:
Keppinger
Votto
Griffey
Phillips
Dunn
EdE
Bruce
Ross
Pitcher

That lineup projected to 804 runs for the season, but more impressively, the most efficient lineup projected to 840 runs for the season.  That would be a nearly 6 win improvement on the offensive side alone.  Of course, that lineup features Dunn, Votto, Griffey, and Bruce as the first four batters, so you can pretty much bet that it would only happen in our little fantasy world of this diary.  But damn, it sure would be nice to have a lineup that potent, wouldn't it?

X
Log In Sign Up

forgot?
Log In Sign Up

Forgot password?

We'll email you a reset link.

If you signed up using a 3rd party account like Facebook or Twitter, please login with it instead.

Forgot password?

Try another email?

Almost done,

By becoming a registered user, you are also agreeing to our Terms and confirming that you have read our Privacy Policy.

Join Red Reporter

You must be a member of Red Reporter to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Red Reporter. You should read them.

Join Red Reporter

You must be a member of Red Reporter to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Red Reporter. You should read them.

Spinner.vc97ec6e

Authenticating

Great!

Choose an available username to complete sign up.

In order to provide our users with a better overall experience, we ask for more information from Facebook when using it to login so that we can learn more about our audience and provide you with the best possible experience. We do not store specific user data and the sharing of it is not required to login with Facebook.

tracking_pixel_9351_tracker