Neyer on Reds' CF Sitchoo

by 3 Fast 3 Furious on Feb 20, 2008 9:36 AM EST Comment 58 comments

http://insider.espn.go.com/espn/blog/index?name=neyer_rob&univLogin02=stateChanged

I think it fundamentally comes down to what Rob mentions: Do the Reds want to win this year or 2009? If they want to win this year, there's no reason as to why Bruce shouldn't be the everyday CF (Veteran presence and Dusty's favorites aside).

I'm definitely in favor of the kid cutting his teeth up here from the first pitch rather than "seasoning" in Louisville. I'm excited to see Bruce get the opportunity to play every day, whereas I'm markedly less excited for the potential Freel / Hopper show manning CF (Do we need a Hoppinger-esque mash up name for them? Fropper? Hopeel? Heel?).

A final thing I'm glad Neyer mentioned is the reason why I let Norris Hopper pick my lottery numbers each week: "Norris Hopper's a born fifth outfielder who got incredibly lucky in the second half last season."

Yes, I only let 5th outfielders pick my numbers for me.

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Oh, and if you're not an ESPN Insider

Here are Rob's thoughts:

It's simple, really: If the Reds don't care about winning in 2008, they might as well let Bruce ripen in Triple-A for a couple of months. His arbitration/free-agency clock wouldn't start ticking until 2009 and they would control his rights through 2014. But they seem to be trying to win now, right? Isn't that why they hired Baker and committed $46 million to Francisco Cordero?

Here are 2008 PECOTA projections for five CF candidates:

Player OBP SLG
Jay Bruce .336 .512
Ryan Freel .334 .371
Norris Hopper .334 .342
Kenny Lofton .346 .382
Corey Patterson .307 .402

Bruce is one of the two or three best prospects in the game. Ryan Freel's a born utility man. Norris Hopper's a born fifth outfielder who got incredibly lucky in the second half last season. Lofton was born nearly 41 years ago. And Patterson, well, I don't have a "born" for him. But Baker's already done his part in screwing up Patterson's career, and now it's someone else's turn.

Yes, you can bump Lofton's and Patterson's projections a few points because they'd be joining the weaker league. And Patterson's almost certainly better with the glove than Bruce. But is there any real doubt about which of these guys has more value in 2008? I'm not saying the Reds should give Bruce the job this spring. I don't think they're nearly good enough to win 85 games. But if they think they're contenders, the choice here is brilliantly clear.

P.S. Bruce gets bonus points for firing Scott Boras.

by 3 Fast 3 Furious on Feb 20, 2008 9:41 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

The Born Ultimatum

I love sports. Whenever I can, I always watch the Detroit Tigers on the radio. Gerald R. Ford

by Madville on Feb 20, 2008 10:40 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Corey Patterson: Born Under a Bad Sign

Take a look around this dump. You're just a tourist with a typewriter. I live here.

by Fat Vegas Alan on Feb 20, 2008 11:12 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Stanton lets 5th outfielders pick his nose

also I'm with "Fropper"

I'm not saying I wouldn't go fishing with the man; all I'm saying is, if he comes near me, I'll put him in the wall.

by Man Mountain on Feb 20, 2008 11:07 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Fropper was my initial favorite, as well.

by 3 Fast 3 Furious on Feb 20, 2008 11:44 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Freeper? Hooper?

But you're thinking that Dusty and Wayner are thinking like you're thinking. You think?

Thinking like Dusty: "A young player will not help me win as much as an experienced veteran."

Thinking like Wayner:"Of course Bruce is good, but will he help us this year, and of course there's arbitration, and, and, and..."

Yeah, I wanna see Bruce and not these other stiffs, but Wayne and Dusty aren't answering my e-mails this week. Dang.

"Never kick a fresh turd on a hot day" - Harry S. Truman

by Lonesome George on Feb 20, 2008 11:38 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

there you go

clogging up his inbox

I'm not saying I wouldn't go fishing with the man; all I'm saying is, if he comes near me, I'll put him in the wall.

by Man Mountain on Feb 20, 2008 1:03 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

no brainer

Bruce is in the starting lineup day one.

Homer, if healthy, is a pleasant surprise. I like his competitive nature and fire. His frame could use a few lbs, he looks kinda like Kris Benson.

I'd keep an eye on Cueto also, he's got more than a little Soto in him.

Volquez? no clue, pen to start the season...sight unseen analysis.

Cut Castro. Now. Eat the contract, waste of a roster spot. Foolish.

Can EE exceed 20 home runs?

My lineup?

Votto (a la Brian Downing)
EE
Junya
BP
Bruce
Dunn
Sea Bass
Ross

Man, we need a RH bat. Keppinger would be a better fit for the top of the lineup, gives much more flexibility to Dusty.

by obc2 on Feb 20, 2008 7:45 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

RH bat

Craig Wilson. He had one bad year, due to bone spurs in his shoulder. I'm really surprised how far his stock has fallen.

All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?

by BubbaFan on Feb 20, 2008 8:20 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Possible righty bat

This one is right up Krivsky's alley and everything: Justin Huber, a former catcher and present first baseman in the Kansas City system, is entering spring training out of options and he's firmly behind Billy Butler and Ryan Shealy, at the very least, within the Kansas City organization. He's a righty bat who until the past two years I would have said was very similar to Joey Votto at the plate. He's OPSed .838 and .853 the past two years in the minors and has never really been given much chance by Kansas City. He was a highly regarded Mets prospect who was incidentally once involved in a three-way deal that saw Jeff Keppinger head to the Mets. Keppinger later went to the Royals, and we stole him from them last year.

I'm not sure what it would cost to pry Huber away from the Royals, but they don't seem to value him a whole lot and I think he'd be a nice semi-platoon partner for Votto and a good righty bat off the bench.

by Geki on Feb 20, 2008 9:14 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Dusty scares me

I know he's a baseball guy and I'm not there to see what he sees, but every quote I read from him starts to terrify me more. Here's what he had to say about Hopper:

"Boy, [Hopper] can hit that ball hard. He's a strong little dude," Baker said. "The ball made a loud sound. I use my ears a lot. I can tell what kind of bat speed [he] has by that sound."

Hopper can hit the ball hard? Mr. Bunt? Mr. Zero Power? Hoboy.

All right, to be fair, Dusty also said some nice things about Bruce, how he had a good stroke and was confident about hitting without being arrogant. Still, Hopper = strong little dude? This season is going to be like Samuel L. Jackson in "Jurassic Park." Hold on to your butts.

by Brendanukkah on Feb 21, 2008 12:33 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

My favorite Hopper stat

is still the fact that he had 19 hits with RISP last season, but only drove in 10 runners on those hits. Even though I watched it happen, I still cannot fathom how that was possible. He came to the plate 52 times with a runner on second, and drove that runner in just 5 time. Strong little dude, indeed.

All I can say is, if Hopper has been holding back his power during the game, it would be nice he would, uh, stop.

I'm not superstitious...but I am a little stitious.

by Slyde on Feb 21, 2008 12:59 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I'm confused.

Does this mean he is clutch or not clutch?

He hits well with RISP, but he doesn't drive them in. Help! Where's ctownboy to set things straight?

Maybe I will use the magic words to summon him: Sign Adam Dunn to a long term contract!

At least it wasn't Grady Little.

by Paul Householder on Feb 21, 2008 9:48 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

i think you have to say it three times

sign adam dunn to a long term contract!

is it April yet?

by Charlie Scrabbles on Feb 21, 2008 9:55 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I think I have to click my heels together

And say, "There's no place like home..."

Or maybe, "There's no hit like a home run..."

At least it wasn't Grady Little.

by Paul Householder on Feb 22, 2008 10:43 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

This is completely unsubstantiated

But I'll bet half of those hits were on bunts. Because that's about all I remember him doing. And if there were a runner on second, we probably said "Oh snap let's have him bunt the runner over." So, obviously, very few of those runners scored. I'm predicting 20 HR this year, though, because Dusty can hear all of that power he's been holding back.

"Just remember, it's not a lie if you believe it." - George Costanza

by beasleymachine on Feb 21, 2008 10:08 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

As a matter of fact

Just 3 of the hits were bunts. He only attempted 4 bunts overall with a runner in scoring position.

I'm not superstitious...but I am a little stitious.

by Slyde on Feb 21, 2008 10:19 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

"I use my ears a lot"

god we're fucked

I'm not saying I wouldn't go fishing with the man; all I'm saying is, if he comes near me, I'll put him in the wall.

by Man Mountain on Feb 21, 2008 1:31 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Dustball better shake the cobwebs off....

did i tell you guyws that my 97 year old
Mom can hit the ball harder and FARTHER than Noho?
She's got Vet. Presence. And don't forget the recent Dustball comments about the increased options a manger has when he carries 3 catchers.

I love sports. Whenever I can, I always watch the Detroit Tigers on the radio. Gerald R. Ford

by Madville on Feb 21, 2008 5:04 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Do you have link for this Ukkah?

this fjm worthy, methinks.

I'm not saying I wouldn't go fishing with the man; all I'm saying is, if he comes near me, I'll put him in the wall.

by Man Mountain on Feb 22, 2008 2:15 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

You can send it their way, if'n you want

http://cincinnati.reds.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20080220&content_id=2381168&vkey=spt2008 news&fext=.jsp&c_id=cin

It's the second item ("Batter's Eye" -- which seems like an ironic name, given what sense they're discussing).

by Brendanukkah on Feb 22, 2008 2:18 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I actually can't

If I click on the email link it takes me straight to Mozilla and doesn't show me the address to which I'm sending. I can't seem to get an RSS feed either (I'm in my office).

I'm not saying I wouldn't go fishing with the man; all I'm saying is, if he comes near me, I'll put him in the wall.

by Man Mountain on Feb 22, 2008 2:29 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

i emailed them

and i quoted slyde, calling him "a respected commenter on redreporter.com." I didn't mean it.

Marty may have a shirt on, but Billy Beane just ripped his off and is squeezing his nipples. - Brendan's ukkah

by boobs on Feb 22, 2008 4:03 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

All that matters

is that Mose thinks I'm respected. And he tells Jenna Fisher and she falls in love with me, or at least the thought of me.

I'm not superstitious...but I am a little stitious.

by Slyde on Feb 22, 2008 4:12 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Can I have Rashida Jones's number?

Since this came from my post?

Mmm, Rashida Jones... Daughter of Quincy Jones and the chick from the Mod Squad. Harvard diploma. Featured on The Chappelle Show, the Office, and the trashily enjoyable Boston Public. We'll overlook her stint singing backup for Maroon 5.

by Brendanukkah on Feb 22, 2008 4:15 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

word

(deep breath...) I was much more of a Karen guy than a Pam guy. (Feels good to get that out.)

Marty may have a shirt on, but Billy Beane just ripped his off and is squeezing his nipples. - Brendan's ukkah

by boobs on Feb 22, 2008 4:19 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Today's contest

Jenna Fischer:

Rashida Jones:

Let's hear your arguments!

I'm not superstitious...but I am a little stitious.

by Slyde on Feb 22, 2008 4:25 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I already weighed in with mine

(She has "cred" from dating Mark Ronson!)

I just want to reiterate that there is no wrong answer here. But the right answer is Karen.

by Brendanukkah on Feb 22, 2008 4:30 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

re

karen (rashida) is way fucking hotter. and I can't find any slutty fhm-type pictures, which is good, I guess, in that it makes her more wholesome.

Q.E.D.

Marty may have a shirt on, but Billy Beane just ripped his off and is squeezing his nipples. - Brendan's ukkah

by boobs on Feb 22, 2008 4:31 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

what say you alan?

or are you still undecided?

Marty may have a shirt on, but Billy Beane just ripped his off and is squeezing his nipples. - Brendan's ukkah

by boobs on Feb 22, 2008 4:42 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Sorry. I don't watch it. But if I had to choose..

..I'd say Lyla Garrity.

Take a look around this dump. You're just a tourist with a typewriter. I live here.

by Fat Vegas Alan on Feb 22, 2008 5:06 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I'm a Pam man

Pam? Oh, it's a beautiful name. Pam. Pam. Pam!

And she's real. She can bring home the bacon and fry it in a pan!

I'm smitten. I am full of smit.

I'm not superstitious...but I am a little stitious.

by Slyde on Feb 22, 2008 4:55 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Im with you

Karen is too ethnic. her father was probably a GI.

is it April yet?

by Charlie Scrabbles on Feb 22, 2008 10:19 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

That's racist!

All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?

by BubbaFan on Feb 23, 2008 5:59 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

ooh

if you send it to them, tell 'em I have a script I'd like them to read. It's about a monkey in prison who is a baseball prodigy. Maybe they could pass it on to a producer for me.

I'm not superstitious...but I am a little stitious.

by Slyde on Feb 22, 2008 2:22 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Zero power?

According to the Fay-Man, Norris Hopper hit an opposite field home run off Todd Coffey today.

Then again, maybe Coffey just sucks.

All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?

by BubbaFan on Feb 22, 2008 4:58 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Hold on to your butts?

Hold on to your lunch.

Ya' know, I like Hopper as a fourth outfielder; back-up, late inning double-switch, pinch hitter, pinch runner, yada- yada-yada.

But it is really a sign of weakness if this guy starts on a regular basis.
With Bruce in AAA, Hopper starting is a sign of dumbness. Or maybe bad hearing. Huh?

"Never kick a fresh turd on a hot day" - Harry S. Truman

by Lonesome George on Feb 21, 2008 1:04 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Why do I get the feeling...

...that Hopper is gonna ride his hot second half last year to at least two or three sub-.700 OPS seasons with us?

by Geki on Feb 21, 2008 3:07 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

well

because it's going to happen

by bobestes on Feb 21, 2008 7:08 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Along these lines...

...I wonder if this (and this) kind of thing could be done for a Red Reporter diary?

I mean, I'd do it except I'm too stupid. And lazy. And my parents' house is far away on the Gulf Coast. And they don't have a basement.

Take a look around this dump. You're just a tourist with a typewriter. I live here.

by Fat Vegas Alan on Feb 22, 2008 2:34 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Dusty

will find a way to mess up the outfield mark my words. When you see the Hopper, Freel, [Dunn or Griffey] outfield, sit back and think about what exactly must be going through his mind. It will happen, and probably once a week on average. He's gonna LOVE Freel and Hopper. The two guys who are probably the worst available candidates. But they are "True Ballplayers" who "know how the game is played".

'Clutch' to me is the epitome of experimenter's bias.

by TheDude on Feb 21, 2008 9:20 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Let's hope

he loves Freel and Hopper so Corey Patterson never smells a Reds uniform. Because he is in fact the worstest available candidate.

"Just remember, it's not a lie if you believe it." - George Costanza

by beasleymachine on Feb 21, 2008 9:54 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Hopper's uniform smells like hustle.

I'm not saying I wouldn't go fishing with the man; all I'm saying is, if he comes near me, I'll put him in the wall.

by Man Mountain on Feb 22, 2008 11:28 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

This may not make you feel any better

From Jeff Passan:

The response this spring has been almost Pavlovian. Every time the name of Jay Bruce surfaces in conversation - and with Bruce passing sliced bread and quickly approaching ice cream as the best thing ever in the prospect-mad baseball world, this happens quite often - Cincinnati Reds manager Dusty Baker brings up another player: Norris Hopper.

I'm not superstitious...but I am a little stitious.

by Slyde on Feb 21, 2008 10:08 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Every time Dusty opens his mouth

my sense of hopelessness for this season only increases. That shouldn't be. I was excited for what the Reds would be doing this year just a month ago, now I'm dreading it. The man hasn't managed a game for this team yet and I already want everybody involved in his hiring taken to the bullpen and shot. Jesus Christ, fuck Dusty Baker.

by Geki on Feb 21, 2008 10:30 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Cry for help

I really think I might have to take hostages this season.

Just so my internet friends will never be able to say "We didn't see it coming."

Here it is: you saw it coming.

I'm not saying I wouldn't go fishing with the man; all I'm saying is, if he comes near me, I'll put him in the wall.

by Man Mountain on Feb 22, 2008 11:31 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

No, I never expected this, officers

He just seemed like your typical internet bastard.

I'm not superstitious...but I am a little stitious.

by Slyde on Feb 22, 2008 11:34 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Only

one problem I have with the article is, when did we allow JUAN Encarnacion to return. One would think that dude would have caught that. He even linked to a profile.

Where have you gone Alex Trevino?

by Pops Daniels on Feb 22, 2008 9:13 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I'm not going to worry

unless Hopper turns into a dead weight and Bruce is still in Louisville in June. Hopper and Freel can probably hold down CF for two months. I won't mind if they start Bruce in Louisville for clock reasons. If Fropper starts seriously stinking up the join, they can always change their minds and call up the kid.

All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?

by BubbaFan on Feb 21, 2008 10:18 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

here's the problem

with your line of reasoning: your definition of "stink up the joint" is completely different from wayner's and dusty's. fropper is going to make a few diving catches, a few bunt-singles, a few stolen bases, and will beat the throw on a few potential double plays, and those things are considered far more valuable than things like jay bruce OPSing 1.050 in AAA. and these people dont readily change their minds. not about shit like this anyway.

is it April yet?

by Charlie Scrabbles on Feb 21, 2008 11:26 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I think Bruce will be with big club

by June at the latest. And once he's up, he'll play every day. You don't call up a prospect if you're not going to play him every day. Fropper isn't going to be so much worse in those two months that it makes a difference in the Reds' season.

I hope.

All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?

by BubbaFan on Feb 21, 2008 11:46 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Fropper could easily be a couple wins worse

over the course of 2 months.

by Geki on Feb 22, 2008 12:31 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah, but wins in april and may

are worth less than wins in september.

I can prove it mathematically!

Everybody's a jerk. You. Me. This jerk.

by andromache on Feb 22, 2008 9:07 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

You also have to take into account

that Bruce may have a period of adjustment to the majors, so bringing him up in June instead of April means you may very well have Bruce not playing up to par (though still very likely better than Fropper) for a period of time.

Or he could Ryan Braun it up and wreck motherfuckers, who knows.

by Geki on Feb 22, 2008 1:38 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Bruce in CF & leading off

Dustball actually referred to Bruce in the same sentence with Jr., Hank Aaron and of course Dusty Baker. Dustball may well want to take credit for Bruce's meteoric rise - DB may want to change his reputation regarding young players..Don't be so sure that Jay B----- is going to languish at Louisville, I think he'll start at GABP on opening day.

I love sports. Whenever I can, I always watch the Detroit Tigers on the radio. Gerald R. Ford

by Madville on Feb 22, 2008 4:38 PM EST reply actions 0 recs