Reds Have Signed Brandon Phillips To A Long Term Contract
by JD Arney on Feb 15, 2008 1:29 AM EST
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PrintNo details as of yet, but Hal McCoy is reporting it:
Brandon Phillips and the Cincinnati Reds have agreed in principle to a long-term deal, a source close to the negotiations told The Dayton Daily News Thursday night.Terms and length of the deal were not available, but the long-term deal is done and an arbitration hearing between the Reds and Phillips has been canceled.
Phillips was asking for a one-year contract worth $4.5 million and the Reds were offering a one-year $2.7 million deal, but the long-term deal wipes that all out.
Tough to give much of an opinion without knowing more, but I think it's ultimately a pretty smart move, assuming they didn't break the bank. Phillips is probably a little overrated by most Reds fans, but he's definitely still the kind of guy you keep around as a building block.
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i was just writing up this post
Just saw this on mlbtraderumors, from Hal McCoy:
Brandon Phillips and the Cincinnati Reds have agreed in principle to a long-term deal, a source close to the negotiations told The Dayton Daily News Thursday night.
Terms and length of the deal were not available, but the long-term deal is done and an arbitration hearing between the Reds and Phillips has been canceled.
There it is. He's the franchise.
I know that many of you think Brandon is a little overhyped right now, and I agree that he needs to improve his OBP in a bad way, but I think this is a good move to lock up one of the most popular players in town (albeit not, reportedly, in the locker room). I know he's not the perfect player, and this could be seen as Wayne glorifying his diamond-hunting prowess, but there's just not a lot about Phillips I don't like. He's exciting, he's got great glove, he has nice power, especially for a second-baseman, and he's just entering the prime of his career. It's hard not to really like this signing.
of course,
I would look at the contract given to Troy Tulowitzki recently to get an idea of what BP's might look like. Tulo got 6 years, $31 million, but you need to look at the year-by-year breakdown to understand it.
It looks like this:
First arb year: $3.5M
Second arb year: $5.5M
Third arb year: $8.5M
First FA year: $10M
Second FA year: $15M club option ($2M buyout)
Phillips is entering his first arb year, and he's not as good as Tulo. I would guess (pulling this out of my ass) we buy out the next four years for about $22M, something like $2.5M, $4.5M, $7M, $9M. Maybe 5 years, $30M.
that's four years, $23M
You guys, sussly?
OBP?
OBP?
_
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just kidding, (no I'm not) TAKE A WALK BP!!!! for that money, sh
it.
I've been saying for awhile...
If Brandon can manage to raise his walk total like Reyes has done, he's gonna be an absolute superstar player. I honestly think if he can add 20 more walks per season over the course of a couple of seasons (he's averaged 34 the past two years, so let's just set 55 walks as the goal), we'll have one of the best players in the league on our team. I'm not convinced he's really a 30 homerun hitter, but I think he should consistently hover around .300, and if he's not launching homers, I expect a fairly large amount of doubles and triples out of him. Toss in his very efficient base-stealing ability plus more opportunities via additional walks, and I think we could have a .300/.360/.500, 40 SB (I suspect he'll run more under Dusty) second baseman who also might be the best defender at his position in the NL.
Of course, if he doesn't add the walks he'll still be a good player, but I really think that's holding him back from being a great player. If he keeps up like he has, I suspect he'll be inconsistent on both a week to week and year to year basis, though ultimately he'll still be good. Tough to argue with locking up a quality young middle infielder long term.
Hopefully Dunner is next.
Playing in GABP makes BP
Even a blind squirrel eventually finds a nut
by Brendanukkah on Feb 15, 2008 7:31 AM EST up reply actions
Hopefully this deal is nothing but a positive
Brandon, please be patient.
Do not become focused on the home run.
Please be a humble clubhouse presence.
Amen.
my view
by sjcourtney on Feb 15, 2008 4:06 AM EST reply actions
30-30 is why I think he's overrated
Like Geki (and others) have said though, he can be great. If he can show a little more patience at the plate. Take a few more walks here or there and make fewer outs. Also, I'd like to see him hitting a few more line drives. It seems like when he first came to the Reds, he was hitting line drives in the gap all over the place. Last year it appeared that he was trying to be more of a home run hitter. I think being a line drive gapper will make him a special hitter, in the mold of Barry Larkin.
And these aren't just statements of "every player can improve." BP can be a truly special player with what I think are slight adjustments. It's not like we're asking Javy Valentin to start stealing bases or Adam Dunn to suddenly be a gold glover in center field. I think these expectations are easily within the realm of what BP can accomplish.
I'm glad we locked BP up
This is why it's so imperative that we don't give up any of our prospects. For one, we're expecting most of them to be vital contributors to the club, and perhaps just as importantly, they'll play for cheap, helping to counterbalance all of these extensions. I'm concerned that this signing might spell the end for the Donkey.
I don't see why
I'd like to think that Dunn is in their plans for the future, as Bruce slots into RF after this season, and if Stubbs can come and play CF and cover up Dunn's craphole defense, then, well that could be one hell of an outfield. (I've always kind of held it against Stubbs for being taken instead of Lincecum, but I think I might be warming up to him). But, I guess I'd like to think that because I can't imagine a Reds team without the Donkey. I don't know how I'd be able to handle seeing him hit moonshots as some AL team's DH.
So, Wayne and Company: Thanks for signing BP long term. As long as it's a decent contract. Now go sign Dunn, or else.
by beasleymachine on Feb 15, 2008 8:42 AM EST up reply actions
Me likey
What I like about signing him now is the timing his relative value to other 2Bs. Locking him up for 4 or 5 years as he enters his age 27 season will give us his prime. This is much smarter than, say, a 3 year deal when he's in his 30s, as 2B often age poorly. When you consider hitting, baserunning, defense and durability only Utley is head and shoulders above the field. Other than Orlando Hudson, the other NL 2Bs are either teetering on the brink of decline (Kent), haven't produced for more than a year (Kelly Johnson), don't stay healthy (Weeks), or are demonstrably inferior.
I would like to see more patience and less focus on the long ball. Slyde pointed out earlier that BP got luck with several "barely over" HRs last year, so we're not likely to see another 30 HR year. Still, going for the HR in GABP is a smart thing because of the short dimensions and (I suspect) the park stiffles doubles and triples.
And frankly, I don't give a shit about the supposed character issues. For whatever reasons the change of scenery helped him start producing at the level he'd been long expected to meet. He plays hard, he's been durable at a critical position and he seems to interact well with the fans and community. If the worst of it is a teammate's unwillingness to fetch his glove on one occassion, I can live with it.
Here's his 2008 projections, fwiw.
PECOTA: 274/325/444
James: 270/318/440
CHONE: 277/331/449
Marcel: 283/333/453
ZiPS: 271/325/435
Character issues
2008 RR Community Projection
I'd say the community is somewhat more optimistic than the computers.
now get Dunn locked Dunn until
In other news Jane Fonda said "cunt" on the today show.
That makes me smile.
Signing Dunn long term
PLEASE!!!!!
Dunn can ONLY do one thing - hit Home Runs and how much has THAT helped the REds the laswt seven years?? When he ISN'T doing that, he is NOT helping the Reds ANY other way.
When Phillips ISN'T hitting Home Runs, he IS Stealing Bases and he IS playing Gold Glove-caliber Defense and at a position that is MUCH harder than Left Field. He is ALSO being a TEAM LEADER.
Phillips was the one who stuck around after the final Home game last year and was giving away equipment and signing autographs from the dug-out while the other "star" players were long gone and in the Club House. Phillips was also the one who took the time at Reds Fest to stay and sign for people and get his picture taken with them even though they were in the back of the line.
On the field, Phillips has LEARNED how to hit the ball to the opposite field and do it with POWER. Note, in 2007, he had MORE opposite field Home Runs than Dunn even though Dunn had 10 MORE Home Runs than Phillips. Also note that Dunn is a Fly Ball hitter and Phillips is a Ground Ball hitter.
As far as signing Dunn long term, get real. With the way salaries are escalating, Dunn is going to want at least $15 or $16 million a year and for what he does THAT is TOO MUCH. Maybe the Yankees and Red Sox can over pay for a guy like Dunn but the Reds CAN'T.
For the type of money DUnn is going to want, the REds could spend a couple million more a year and get Carl Crawford. For a couple million more on top of that, they could be in the range that C. C. Sabathia is going to want. So, out of those three players, which one would you REALLY want to have?? People who say DUnn are outright fools.
In 2007, Dunn had 40 Home Runs and 106 RBI. He ranked Third in the NL in Home Runs but only 10th in RBI. As a team, the Reds ranked Third in the NL in Home Runs and Seventh in Runs scored.
Now, subtract Dunn's numbers and add in Carl Crawford's (11 Home Runs and 80 RBI) and look where the Reds rank. Seventh in Home Runs and Seventh in Runs scored. Taking Dunn OUT of the equation resulted in a drop in ranking as far as Home Runs hit but NO DROP in where the Reds ranked as far as Runs scored.
Now add in Crawford's 30 some Doubles. almost 20 Triples, 50 Stolen Bases and near .300 Batting Average PLUS his above average Defense, and havign him on the team would be MUCH better than Dunn because he gives the Reds MORE versatility and ways to SCORE RUNS.
If you look at the teams that have WON the World Series the last 50 years, MORE teams have led their League in Runs scored than those who have led their League in Home Runs. VERSATILITY (being able to score on GOOD Pitchers and play "small ball") is MORE valuable than just being able to hit a Home Run.
That is why the Reds had a BETTER record during the second half of 2007. They didn't rely as much on the Home Run but, rather, doing the little things to try and score. Hopper and Keppinger were getting on base and Phillips was moved to Fourth in the line-up.
The Reds didn't hit as many Home Runs BUT they had MORE Doubles, a higher team Batting Average, higher team On Base Percentage while their Slugging percentage only dropped by a few points. This resulted in the Reds averaging MORE Runs scored per Game than what they did in the first half.
What makes THIS approach and the results that followed even MORE important is that the team ERA was HIGHER during the second half of the season and yet the Reds had a BETTER winning percentage.
So, subtract Dunn and add Crawford and THEN the Reds can start thinking about getting into the Play-Offs and WINNING a World Series. Until then, they are going to be in the SAME place they have been the last seven years - hitting Home Runs and LOSING.
by ctownboy on Feb 15, 2008 1:43 PM EST up reply actions
ROOOAAARRRRRR!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Can you wiggle your ears?
by Man Mountain on Feb 15, 2008 1:51 PM EST up reply actions
Bubbiee!
by Mini Michael on Feb 15, 2008 1:56 PM EST up reply actions
I've heard he lacks savvy, though.
by Mini Michael on Feb 15, 2008 2:33 PM EST up reply actions
Why haven't they done it yet?
Blah Blah de Blah
That's
by Mini Michael on Feb 15, 2008 2:13 PM EST up reply actions
Adam Dunn
by ctownboy on Feb 15, 2008 2:42 PM EST up reply actions
The 7 year formula that hasn't worked
year team ERA
2001 CIN 4.77
2002 CIN 4.27
2003 CIN 5.09
2004 CIN 5.19
2005 CIN 5.15
2006 CIN 4.51
2007 CIN 4.94
stats
1999 - 4th in Runs scored and 3rd in Home Runs
2000 - 5th in Runs scored and 5th in Home Runs
2001 - 12th in RUns scored and 9th in Home Runs
2002 - 9th in Runs scored and 4th in Home Runs
2003 - 13th in RUns scored and 6th in Home Runs
2004 - 10th in Runs scored and 6th in Hoem Runs
2005 - 1st in Runs scored and 1st in Home Runs
2006 - 9th in Runs scored and 2nd in Home Runs
2007 - 7th in Runs scored and 3rd in Home Runs
A LOT of solo Home Runs and runners NOT driven in during those years. Fits right in with Adam Dunn. 2007, 40 Home Runs (third in the NL) and 106 RBI's (10th in the NL). Also, his career .220 Batting Average with RISP.
Again, look at the teams that have WON the World Series the last 50 years. There have been MORE teams that have led their league in Runs scored than ones that have led their league in Home Runs. Those teams were BALANCED. They could win at Home AND on the Road.
Not so with the Home Run first Offensive approach the Reds have had.
by ctownboy on Feb 15, 2008 6:59 PM EST up reply actions
more stats
Pre All- Star:
Runs - 5th
Doubles - 16th (last)
Home Runs - First
RBI - 5th
Batting Average - 11th
On Base Percentage - 11th
Slugging Percentage - 3rd (.437)
Team ERA 15th (4.77)
Post All-Star:
Runs - 8th
Doubles - 2nd
Home Runs - 12th
RBI - 8th
Batting Average - 3rd
On Base Percentage - 4th
Slugging Percentage - 8th (.436)
Team ERA - 14th (5.15)
Now, here are the IMPORTANT numbers -
Won - Loss Record Pre All-Star Game - 36 and 52
Won - Loss Record Post All-Star Game - 36 and 38
Average Runs scored per Game Pre All-Star: 4.75 (418 divided by 88).
Average Runs scored per Game Post All-Star: 4.93 (365 divided by 74).
So, the Reds had a WORSE record BEFORE the All Star Game even though they were hitting MORE Home Runs AND their Team ERA was lower.
The difference, Pre All-Star versus Post All-Star, was that Norris Hopper and Jeff Keppinger were inserted into the line-up and Brandon Phillips was moved from the second spot in the order to the fourth spot. Thus, the TEAM was MORE balanced and could score in MORE ways. They also could score against Left Handed Pitching and on the Road.
Now, in 2008, it looks like Hopper and Keppinger are going to be on the bench and Phillips is NOT going to be batting in the middle of the order. So, the Offense is going to look MUCH like it did BEFORE the All-Star break in 2007 (and the years prior); relying on the Home Run. A strategy that has NOT worked.
by ctownboy on Feb 15, 2008 7:25 PM EST up reply actions
Based on your stats...
I think that if you analyze OBP and runs scored, you will find a lot more statistical correlation between OBP and runs scored than you will find between lower number of strikeouts and runs scored.
by Paul Householder on Feb 15, 2008 7:56 PM EST up reply actions
Heer, Heer
I BELIEVE THAT SIGNING DUNN IS A VERY SMART MOVE AND THAT HE WILL BE SIGNED LONG TERM BEFORE THE SEASON BEGINS.
didn't work?
Pitching and Defense
The Reds have added Cordero and Volquez and subtracted Hamilton. Volquez, so far, hasn't done very well in the Majors, even though he has an "electric arm". Also, the Ball Park in Arlingotn is a hitter's park like GASP.
Cordero had declining numbers with Texas before he went to Milwaukee. With the Brewers, his numbers were GREAT at Home amd not so great on the Road. His ERA was MUCh higher away from Milwaukee and his Save Percentage dropped. In 2007, he had like a 95% successful Save rate at Milwaukee and only in the mid - 70's on the Road.
As far as Defense, the Reds traded away their BEST Defensive Outfielder and have KGJ, a year older and coming off ANOTHER injury in Right Field. They have Dunn, a BAD defender to begin with (one of the worst according to the Fielder's Bible), being a year older, coming off knee surgery and, from what people have said about him after seeing him on TV at the UFC event, heavier.
Then, there is either Hopper or Freel, both of whom are going to be running their legs off trying to cover the ground that Dunn and KGJ CAN'T or wont.
At Short Stop, there is going to be A Gon, a guy who committed 16 Errors during the time he was actually on the team and playing, compared to Keppinger, who only made 3 Errors. A Gon's 2007 Defensive stats compare more to the years of 2003 - 2005 then they do to 2006, with the Red Sox, where he had a REALLY good year.
So, the Offense has NOT been touched (or improved) while the Defense stays the same or gets worse because of age (and injury and weight). The Pitching MIGHT be improved because of the addition of Cordero BUT,it might also falter.
I say this because in 2007, the Reds' Bull Pen had their trouble in the 7th and 8th Innings. Thus, giving the Offense some time to come back (which it too often didn't). In 2008, if Cordero falters, it most likely will be in the 9th Inning, giving the Offense little or NO time to come back.
by ctownboy on Feb 15, 2008 7:39 PM EST up reply actions
Did Adam Dunn fuck your wife?
Let me get this straight, your solution to scoring more runs is to remove Adam Dunn and his 940 OPS, including a .386 on base percentage, and replace him with Carl Crawford who hits less home runs, and gets on base less with his .355 on base percentage?
A strike out is an out just like a ground out or a fly out. Yes I realize that sometimes making contact with a runner on third is to the advantage, but I think Dunn's other production negates that. Plus you want to pay Carl Crawford m more to do less than Adam Dunn?
Please check stats before making strong arguments like this, Dunn walks a lot and has a very high OBP.
PS-Are home runs hit to the opposite field worth more?
PLEASE ANSWER my QUESTIONS beCAUSe there are some SERIOUS FLAWS IN YOUR logic.
by justin0070000 on Feb 15, 2008 3:12 PM EST up reply actions
You really think someone would marry Michael?
There's a land
Such an accursed place truly exists?
I have been
I was thinking tHom
by justin0070000 on Feb 15, 2008 3:28 PM EST up reply actions
You sound like Obama
by Paul Householder on Feb 15, 2008 3:52 PM EST up reply actions
Phillips vs Dunn
Brandon Phillips has a good bat and plays great defense. His overall value though left him at about 3.4 wins all by himself last year.
They get to their values in completely different ways, but they are still pretty close in terms of overall value.
Adam Dunn
In five of the past seven years, Dunn has hit MORE Home Runs at GASP than on the Road. His other Offensive stats are also better at Home, just like Austin Kearns and Felipe Lopez's were
So, Dunn mostly helps in a park that is EASY to hit Home Runs in but does NOT help on the Road, where the Reds have TROUBLE scoring and winnign Games. Also, in LARGER ball parks (think West Coast, Dunn's Defense only gets WORSE because his lack of range allows MORE balls to fall in for Hits or to get by him for Extra Base Hits, thus hurting the Pitching staff.
Now, put Crawford in those situations and he gets to more balls and catches them for Outs and cuts the balls off and keeps the batter from taking an extra base.
On Offense, Crawford would get more Singles (especailly slow rollers on the Infield) and the possibility to Steal Bases. Also, he has the speed and thus the possibility, to turn Singles into Doubles and Doubles into Triples.
by ctownboy on Feb 15, 2008 6:32 PM EST up reply actions
fun fact
He obviously isn't aided by the small home ballpark. I don't know if you have ever seen an Adam Dunn home run, quite typically they go a long game. I was at a Dodgers game in 2004, where he hit a home run 535 feet I believe, it bounced off the batters eye, and landed a piece of drift wood in the Ohio River. But you know most of his home runs just barely clear THE fence.
I could respect the argument that his defense sucks, and you would prefer to see a better defensive left fielder. I wouldn't agree with it, but I wouldn't think you are a total fool.
by justin0070000 on Feb 16, 2008 1:36 AM EST up reply actions
Adam Dunn
Most of Crawford's At bats were in the 1, 2 or 3 spots in the order. Two of those spots are NOT RBI spots. If you think they are, then look at what Brandon Phillips did when he hit in the 2 spot in the order in 2007 - 11 Home Runs and 25 RBI.
Dunn, on the other hand, had MOST of his At Bats in the 3, 4, 5 and 6 spots in the order, ALL RBI spots. So, take Crawford OUT of the 1 and 2 spots and put him in Dunn's position in the order and he would have MORE than 80 RBI's.
Ball park. GASP inflates Left Handed hitter's power numbers by 27%. So, Crawford's power numbers would increase. This means he would hit LESS Triples at GASP but MORE Home Runs.
Stike Outs. Dunn, in a "good" year had 165 while Crawford had 111. I will take my chances with Crawford getting wood on the ball those 50 tiems and see what happens.
Speed. If Crawford hits a slow roller on the Infield, he has a good shot a beating it out. Not so with Dunn. This is important, especially against GOOD Pitchers. Crawford can start or keep a rally going or drive a guy in from Third with one of these slow rollers where Dunn makes an Out and either kills a rally or endes the Inning. Plus, Crawford uses the WHOLE field, so he has MORE of a chance at getting a Hit and getting on base, where his speed is a valuable tool. Also, with Crawford on First, you DON'T ahve to Bunt to move him over, like with DUnn, AND he has a MUCH better shot at scoring on a Double than Dunn does.
Hitting against Left Handed Pitching and on the Road, Crawford has BETTER nubmers than Dunn. Since the REd ahve trouble agaisnt Left Handed Pitching (they were 13 Games UNDER .500 aginst them in 2007) and also ahve trouble scoring on the Road, Crawford would help in these areas because he does NOT rely on hitting the Hoem Run.
Defense. According to the Fielding Bible, Dunn annually costs the Reds at least 20 Runs, compared to an AVERAGE Left Fielder, because of his poor Defense. So, 106 RBI's - 20 (for Runs allowed) equals 86. That means Dunn only drove in 6 more Runs than Crawford. Now, take Dunn's 2006 year, when he had like 93 RBI's and subtract 20 and you get 73. Also, this only compares Dunn to an AVERAGE Left Fielder. Considering Crawford is ABOVE average, then it means Crawford would save MORE Runs.
In conclusion, Crawford is worth MORE than Dunn because he can do MORE things and would help the Reds win MORE Games.
by ctownboy on Feb 15, 2008 6:13 PM EST up reply actions
Carl Crawford is a member of the Tampa Bay Rays.
Carl Crawford
deal for 2005 season worth 370K was renewed on 3/11/05- + he could earn 20K in bonuses for reaching 500PA- + signed 4-year deal worth 15.25M on 4/1/05 that superceded deal for 2005 season- + he receives a 500K signing bonus and salaries of 500K in 2005, 2.5M in 2006, 4M in 2007, and 5.25M in 2008- + the deal includes a Team Option for 2009 worth 8.25M or a 2.5M buyout- + if the 2009 option is exercised, then a Team Option for 2010 worth 10M or a 1.25M buyout is added- + 2010 option value could rise to 11.5M based on various escalators, including one for AL MVP votes- + as part of the deal, he will donate up to 400K to the Rays of Hope Foundation- + if traded, he receives a bonus worth up to 800K- + bonuses he has earned: $25K for 2007 All-Star selection
Agent: Brian Peters Service Time: 4.072
It is said the Devil Rays are already thinking about trading Scott Kazmir because his contract is up and they wont be able to afford him. Plus, with what the Orioles got for Bedard, the Devil Rays would like to net a haul like that.
Now, if the Devil Rays are NOT going to pony up the cash to keep a stud Pitcher, why would they keep Carl Crawford?? An Offensive player who would be easier to replace and who would cost more to keep than Kazmir??
by ctownboy on Feb 15, 2008 6:47 PM EST up reply actions
The Rays will obviously exercise his options.
Simply put, there is a 0% chance, barring substantial injury, that the Rays do not exercise Crawford's 2009 or 2010 options. Even if they decide they can't afford him, they would surely exercise the options and then trade him for a hefty price in prospects or other young players (a price that it would be most unwise for the Reds to pay). And even in the hypothetical case that Crawford would hit the market, what makes you think the Reds could sign him? Torii Hunter just got a 5-year, $90 million contract this offseason. I'd bank on Crawford getting 6 or 7 years at a similar rate if he were to hit the market.
I don't really know why I'm even bothering to do this, but I've now been sucked in.
Dammit
I'd really love to go point-by-point and refute all the crap you just posted, but I'm about to leave. If I get good and drunk later, I might just spend a few hours providing some numbers that will prove you wrong on most of this stuff. For now, I'll pick on one thing.
You continually bash Adam Dunn by comparing him to Carl Crawford. You tell us that Crawford is in spots in the lineup that are "NOT RBI spots," while Dunn takes AB's in "ALL RBI spots."
Well, let's take a look at that. In 2007, Dunner took:
522 AB's overall
281 AB's with nobody on base = 54% of his total AB's
241 AB's with runners on base = 46% of his total AB's
Crawford took:
584 AB's overall
333 AB's with nobody on base = 57% of his total AB's
251 AB's with runners on base = 43% of his total AB's
Their RBI opportunities as a function of AB's were very similar. In fact, in terms of counting numbers, Crawford had MORE opportunities to bring guys home, and had 26 LESS RBI.
While I'm gone, I'd like you to read a few studies I did (involving actual statistical evidence) about Dunn's performance with Runners on Base and Dunn's performance against good pitching.
http://www.redreporter.com/story/2007/6/13/19235/9786
http://www.redreporter.com/story/2007/8/6/19025/18291
http://www.redreporter.com/story/2007/8/17/19327/2369
I'm interested to know what you think of them. Try not to capitalize random words in your response, either.
Adam Dunn
Take Crawfrod and put him in GASP and batting where Dunn did and see what happens.
In 2007, Dunn ONLY improved because the hitters in front of him did and because Phillips was RIGHT in front of him. A base stealing threat that had Pitchers throwing MORE Fast Balls to Dunn instead of breaking and off speed Pitches.
First half of 2007 - Dunn had 24 Home Runs and 58 RBI with 105 Strike Outs. That comes to 2.42 RBI's per Home Run (just above his career average). After the All-Star break, when Hopper and Keppinger were inserted into the line-up and Phillips was moved from 2nd in the order to 4th, Dunn had 16 Home Runs and 48 RBI. That is 3 RBI per Home Run.
Now, in 2008, with Bake as Manager, it looks liek the line-up is going to be very similiar to what it was in the first half of 2007. Which means Dunn is going to hit a LOT os solo Home Runs and drive in fewer guys while Striking Out MORE.
Compare Dunn to similiar Home Run hitters (notice I didn't use the word Run producer) and you will see that, without the use of a Home run, Dunn does NOT do very well.
In 2007, there were 19 guys in the NL who hit 30 or more Home Runs. If I remember correctly, 12 of those guys had more RBI per Home Run than Dunn. Which means they were finding ways OTHER than the Home Run to drive guys in.
Of the seven that had low RBI per Home Run ratios, three either hit lead-off or in the two hole. Spots where the RBI opportunities were not great. Either because there was NOBODY on base or they had the bottom part of the order on base (basically Pitchers and Catchers, not really speed demons or people who are expected to run the bases aggressively.
by ctownboy on Feb 15, 2008 7:57 PM EST up reply actions
Not sure what you're saying here
That seems to be what BLee is saying.
By the way, have you read his analysis of Jeter and Dunn? What do you think of that?
by Paul Householder on Feb 15, 2008 8:05 PM EST up reply actions
RBI/HR????
Juan Pierre had infinity RBI/HR last year.
And you didn't read a single link I gave you, did you? You're spouting off the same bullshit without taking 5 minutes to see what the numbers really say. That's the best way to make Adam Dunn look bad; willful ignorance.
Not just RBI/HR...
That ranking was (evidently) 13. Of (evidently) 19. So he's somewhere between James Brooks and Ki-Jana Carter.
(And somebody help me out here... Is variance the correct stat geek term...) We need to know how widely the numbers varied from the top portion of the list to the bottom portion of the list in order to know if an indictment of Dunn's position on that list is valid or invalid. Or just stupid.
He kinda reminds me of Pat Buchanan handicapping the Democratic race tonight: "THIS IS WHAT'S GONNA HAPPEN AND HERE'S WHY IT'S GONNA HAPPEN AND IF THIS DOESN'T HAPPEN THEN in my estimation IT DOESN'T MATTER IF ANYTHING ELSE HAPPENS OR NOT BECAUSE THE THING THAT I believe MATTERS MOST HAS ALREADY HAPPENED!"
by Fat Vegas Alan on Feb 15, 2008 11:03 PM EST up reply actions
Adam Dunn
Since Home Runs are the easiest and fastest ways to drive guys in (i.e. nobody on and hit a Home Run = 1 RBI compared to nobody on and hitting a Single, Double or Triple, etc). Also, since Home Run hitters bat in the middle of the order and have MANY chances to drive guys in, they have an advantage that way. So, combine the two and they SHOULD have a high RBI per Home Run ratio because they don't have to work as hard (get as many Hits) as Norris Hopper (a Singles hitter) to drive guys in.
The 30 Home Run mark was used so that people on this board wouldn't say that the sample size was too small and that guys who hit only a few Home Runs would naturally have a high RBI to Home Run ratio.
NAME HR RBI RBI per HR
1 Prince Fielder 50 119 2.38
2 Ryan Howard 47 136 2.89
3 Adam Dunn 40 106 2.65
4 Matt Holliday 36 137 3.81
5 Lance Berkman 34 102 3.00
6 Miguel Cabrera 34 119 3.50
7 Ryan Braun 34 97 2.85
8 Carlos Beltran 33 112 3.39
9 Alfonso Soriano 33 70 2.12 Lead-off
10 Carlos Lee 32 119 3.72
11 Albert Pujols 32 103 3.22
12 Chris Young 32 68 2.13 Lead-off
13 Dan Uggla 31 88 2.84 Second spot
14 Ken Griffey Jr. 30 93 3.10
15 Pat Burrell 30 97 3.23
16 Jimmy Rollins 30 94 3.13
17 Brandon Phillips 30 94 3.13
18 Adrian Gonzalez 30 100 3.33
19 David Wright 30 107 3.57
Dunn's first half RBI per Home Run ratio = 2.42 (24 Home Runs and 58 RBI). His second half ratio = 3.00 (16 Home Runs and 48 RBI). Dunn's career RBI per Home Run ratio 2.40 (238 Home Runs and 572 RBI).
This shows that guys who have an RBI to HR ratio of 3 or more to 1 are clearly doing something ELSE besides hitting Home Rusn to drive guys in. Why? Because they are NOT hitting a three Run Home Run EVERY time they go deep.
Look at Brandon Phillips and KGJ. They have higher ratios than Dunn and they play on the SAME team and in the SAME park. Also, Phillips spent part of his 2007 season hitting in the second spot in the order where he had 11 Home Runs and 25 RBI (a 2.27 ratio) which is similiar to Soriano and Young, both of whom were lead-off hitters for their team. Soriano the whole year and Young part of the year.
If you look at the career Home Run list and use this measure for guys who have the same number of Home Runs as Dunn or more, the only person I could find that was as low as Dunn was Mark McGwire, something like 2.45.
Now, even though hitting a Home Run is the easiest and fastest way to drive guys in, it is also hard to keep a good HR to RBI ratio when the player hits a LOT of Home Runs because the solo Home Runs bring the number down. That is why guys who hit a lot of Home Runs AND have a high RBI to HR ratio are really impressive. Those guys usually are in contention for the MVP Award because they can do MORE than just hit Home Runs to drive guys in.
by ctownboy on Feb 16, 2008 1:02 AM EST up reply actions
I think I get it.....
by jacob brumfield on Feb 16, 2008 1:09 AM EST up reply actions
Here's the thing....
- It's a ridiculously bad stat. If Dunn had hit a bases-clearing double in 10 of his AB's where he homered, he'd increase his RBI/HR to 3.2, well above your threshhold for "goodness." But, wait, that would mean that he got less runs home in those situations, which is bad. Your stat is telling us absolutely nothing about run production, ergo it's worthless.
- Again, it's a problem of opportunities. Here's each of those guys' number of AB's with runners on base:
Phillips 306 (why is he producing less than Dunn with more opportunities?)
Berkman 304 (why is he producing less than Dunn with more opportunities?)
C.Lee 298
Gonzalez 293 (why is he producing less than Dunn with more opportunities?)
Uggla 284 (Why is he producing less than Dunn with more opportunities?)
Howard 278
Beltran 278
Wright 268
Cabrera 266
Pujols 263 (why is he producing less than Dunn with more opportunities?)
Rollins 261 (why is he producing less than Dunn with more opportunities?)
Griffey 245 (why is he producing less than Dunn with more opportunities?)
Fielder 243
Dunn 241
Burrell 218
Braun 201 (partial season)
Young 193 (as a leadoff guy)
Soriano 189 (as you said, a leadoff guy)
Dunn out-RBI'd everybody who got less opportunities than him, and also out-RBI'd half the guys who got more opportunities than him.
Shut the hell up.
Adam Dunn
Dunn can hit a ball over 500 feet to Right Field and regularly hits them over 400 feet, so WHY can't he hit a ball 370 feet to Left?? Because HE DOES NOT SWING AT OUTSIDE PITCHES!!!! If he did, then the opposing team would NOT continually put the Infield SHift on him.
By NOT swinging at outside Pitches and taking advantage of the EASE which GASP allows hitters to hit Hoem RUns, he HURTS the team. He ESPECIALLY does so when he TAKES a pitch/pitches on the outside part of the plate which are Strikes.
Run producers use the whole field AND they broaden their Strike zones when necessary to get a guy in. They do NOT take pitches hoping to get a Walk. This is why Dunn OFTEN Strikes out with a man on Third without ever swinging at a Pitch.
by ctownboy on Feb 15, 2008 6:22 PM EST up reply actions
Are you Skip Bayliss?
"Touchdowns are overrated"
"Any shot in basketball that is not a game winner does not matter"
I don't like Adam Dunn but not because of his play on the field mostly because I am too stubborn to admit I was wrong earlier because I thought like you at one point. These guys know what they are talking about and I think you should listen to them.
I love Red Reporter.
by Fat Vegas Alan on Feb 15, 2008 11:18 PM EST up reply actions
Adam Dunn
Me, I will take the guy who is more versatile and gives the Reds a BETTER chance to win Games (Crawford). I would also take Sabathia over Dunn.
As far a smoney goes, the Redsd would have the money to sign either Craford or Sabathia because Dunn will make $13.5 million in 2008 and KGJ will make $12.5 million. That is $26 million. Now, DUnn even with an off year will probably make mroe than $13.5 million in 2009 and KGJ is slated to make $16.5 million with a $4 million buy out.
So, take what Dunn and KGJ are expected to earn and add that together and that is MORE than what Crawford and Sabathia would make individually. This also allows Bruce to play Right Field.
Even adding Craford or Sabathia's salary with the $4 million buy out is less than what Dunn and KGJ would be expected to make in 2009.
My line-up for 2009:
Hopper CF
Keppinger SS
Crawford LF
Phillips 2B
Bruce RF
Edwin E 3B
Votto 1B
Ross (or Bengie Molina) C
P
This is a MORE balanced and versatile line-up. It is one that would hit for a better average and Strike Out less often. It would be able to compete agaisnt Left Handed Pitchers and on the ROad while STILL having the power to hit Home Rusn in GASP. Defensively, it is MUCH better than Dunn in LF, ??? in CF and KGJ in RF, which HELPS the Pitching staff.
by ctownboy on Feb 15, 2008 6:42 PM EST up reply actions
Are you reading people's responses?
Carl "Craford" is great player but he doesn't produce runs like Adam Dunn does, pure and simple. "Craford" is certainly a better fielder than Dunn, and maybe playing in Great American Ball Park would improve his offensive numbers, but as has been pointed out repeatedly TB doesn't seem to be shopping a trade for Crawford. Thus, this is a bizarre hypothetical to be harping on.
If you're suggesting the Reds should be looking to replace Adam Dunn with a player like Carl Crawford, then fine, but those players are not easy to find and not cheap to pry away from other teams. Neither, incidentally, is Adam Dunn. And the Reds are in the best position to get Adam Dunn's production at below market value because he's already here and is a product of their system.
And for what it's worth, "GASP" is just about the lamest fucking pun ever, ever. I'm sure it makes all the girls twitter at your jazzercising class, but here it just makes you sound like a dipshit. Along with your random capitalization of words, spurious logic, and general inability to properly contextualize stats.
by Man Mountain on Feb 15, 2008 9:05 PM EST up reply actions
Here is my take on him
I love Red Reporter.
by Fat Vegas Alan on Feb 15, 2008 11:15 PM EST up reply actions
The Reds were fine on offense last season
Why do you want Molina? I would take Ross over him any day of the week.
comment of the year thus far
I'm telling you
by Brendanukkah on Feb 15, 2008 5:19 PM EST up reply actions
so far ahead of us he's standing behind us
by Man Mountain on Feb 15, 2008 5:54 PM EST up reply actions
i want to clean your forehead with a scouring pad
McCoy on Clemens
Clemens really doesn't do himself any favors with the press. He told McCoy: "The best thing about Dayton was seeing it in the rear-view mirror."
And yet, when Dave Attell says it,
As an expatriate Daytonian, I have a large amount of misplaced Dayton pride. So to those Daytonians who have turned their backs on the Gem City (Clemens, Lou Barlow, etc.), I say to them, "Hard cheese. You deserve everything bad that happens to you."
by Brendanukkah on Feb 15, 2008 9:40 AM EST up reply actions
me too
Brendan has some Kim Deal
by Man Mountain on Feb 16, 2008 11:11 AM EST up reply actions
I was in Dayton once
I wanted to go see Hangar 18, but they said there was no Hangar 18 at Wright-Pat.
Of course, that's probably what they would say, if they wanted to hide evidence of a UFO crash... ;-)
I was born in Dayton
Hawthorne Heights are from there too
by Brendanukkah on Feb 16, 2008 1:24 PM EST up reply actions
the airport is a cheap viable alternative
by justin0070000 on Feb 18, 2008 2:32 PM EST up reply actions
Brandon Phillips
are you a white home steader?
by jacob brumfield on Feb 15, 2008 11:04 AM EST up reply actions
good move
on the topic of His Donkness, remember late last year when Big Bob sat him down for steaks and told him he wanted him around for a long time? he's not a liar, is he? i hope he's not a liar.
by Charlie Scrabbles on Feb 15, 2008 9:42 AM EST reply actions
are we sure...
I always thought it was more of a 'screw the media's opinion of you, we like the way you're playing. can you pass the ketchup? so, how's the wife' kinda meeting
by jacob brumfield on Feb 15, 2008 11:17 AM EST up reply actions
Come on, guys
I expected him to get a deal like what Jose Reyes got a bit more than a year ago (4 years, $23.25 mil w/ 5th year option), and I'll stick with that.
Reyes plays a tougher defensive position (and plays it pretty well), is a better hitter, and is a better baserunner.
I honestly think if he can add 20 more walks per season over the course of a couple of seasons (he's averaged 34 the past two years, so let's just set 55 walks as the goal), we'll have one of the best players in the league on our team.
Really? If he added 20 walks, that'd put his OPS+ around 110. That, with the baserunning and defense is pretty good. But "one of the best in the league"? It still wouldn't even make him the best 2B in the league.
Remember BP's first year when we were counting his walks with one hand?
Are you talking about his 1st year with the Reds? He walked in 6% of PAs in '06, and in 4.7% last year. Or are you talking about his only full year with the Indians, when he walked in 3.6% - a difference of only 4 walks from last year?
If he can show a little more patience at the plate. Take a few more walks here or there and make fewer outs.
Like I pointed out, he actually walked less last year. Why would you think that now, at 27 and after 2 full years in the majors (and another 4 split among AA, AAA, and MLB) he's suddenly going to find better pitch recognition ability?
Hey, like I said, he's a nice player. Unless they signed him for Tulo or Utley money, and as long as he keeps his head on straight, it's probably a good signing. But don't fool yourselves - Harang, Dunn, Bailey, and Bruce are far, far more important to the success of this team than BP ever will be.
I want to add
Well
He's a solid middle infielder playing a position that the Reds have little depth at, outside of Keppinger who could match his bat, but not his glove. And for all we know at this point, the contract may just be a cost control move, locking him up through his arb years plus one free agency year.
And in response to your response to my comment, I will say that I was arguing what he needed to do to be great, not necessarily what I thought he would do. I don't think it's out of the realm of possibility for him to become more patient at the plate. Sure, he hasn't shown any indications of it yet, but I think it's as much a mental shift as a physical one. Whether he can make the shift remains to be seen, but I think it's a lot easier to become a patient hitter in the majors than it is to, say, become a home run hitter.
Let me reiterate
Did I say he was as good as Reyes?
As for him being one of the best players in the league, that was perhaps hyperbolic on my part, but there are very few players in the league who would have more value than Brandon if he put up the line that I mentioned in my post.
Okay, how shitty are the Reds beat writers?
speaking of shifty beat writers
by chandrathan on Feb 15, 2008 12:49 PM EST up reply actions
Well...
That's what I figured
Holy crap
Four-year contract worth a reported $27 million
No I didn't
well, that's tulo money
what the hell does this mean? Is the fifth year an option for $16.25M??
I'd guess there are escalators...
sure sounds like it
Did anyone else hear Votto interviewed...
Does anyone know who was interviewing him and where I might find the podcast of their show? The portion that I heard sounded like an atypical interview with an athlete (ie "somewhat interesting")with an athlete and I would like to hear it in its entirety.
It was nice to hear the names "Votto" and "Bruce" and "Bailey" and "Cueto" coming out of the radio and know that somewhere out there listening was a jealous Cubs or Cardinals fan.
Six weeks until Webb vs Harang!
I bet if you figure out the specifics
I thought of that..
It must have been sometime around 630 or 7pm.
Anyone?
by Fat Vegas Alan on Feb 15, 2008 3:48 PM EST up reply actions
Annnnd
wanna meet da, da doc?
Daugherty's a douche
Pretty good interview. Not a fan of Daugherty's style, but I like Votto even more now. I really hope we get to see he and Bruce competing over the next couple of years to be the best hitter on the team.
Votto's cool.
Thanks for digging it up, Slyde. I owe ya one. Let me know if you ever get stuck playing Sudoku or something.
by Fat Vegas Alan on Feb 15, 2008 4:33 PM EST up reply actions
personal vendetta
That, however, was mediocre radio. I dug it.
To put a little perspective on the dollar amounts
Chase Utley signed his extension in January of '07. For his fourth through seventh years in the bigs he'll get $38MM, plus a $2MM signing bonus. Robinson Cano will make $39MM for the same slice of his career if his 2012 option is exercised. Viewed that way, the Phillips deal seems solid.
Both Utley and Cano are better players than Phillips, and Cano is a couple of years younger. But even still, his 4-year deal seems very reasonable in comparison. I'd still want to see the 5th year option numbers before evaluating it.
Option is for 12mm
then it's not too bad of an option
I declare semi-victory.
dammit to hell
SPRING TRAININGGGGGGG, YEAH!!!
by Charlie Scrabbles on Feb 15, 2008 9:02 PM EST reply actions
Merry Pitchers and Catchers Report Eve
by Brendanukkah on Feb 15, 2008 11:29 PM EST up reply actions
Let's stretch and get loose now.
by Fat Vegas Alan on Feb 15, 2008 11:41 PM EST up reply actions
And remember...
by Fat Vegas Alan on Feb 15, 2008 11:54 PM EST up reply actions
it doesn't hurt to dream...
by jacob brumfield on Feb 16, 2008 12:58 AM EST up reply actions
I HAVE A BURNING DESIRE
by jacob brumfield on Feb 16, 2008 1:02 AM EST reply actions
Mainly that
by Man Mountain on Feb 16, 2008 11:13 AM EST up reply actions
im looking for someone to pick a fight with
nevermind
Pussy.
by Fat Vegas Alan on Feb 16, 2008 6:18 PM EST up reply actions
Probably not worth a diary
Central W L RS RA AVG OBP SLG
Chicago Cubs 89 73 845 759 .274 .343 .452
Milwaukee Brewers 87 75 829 765 .263 .339 .450
Cincinnati Reds 79 83 772 794 .263 .334 .429
Houston Astros 74 88 725 798 .261 .327 .412
St. Louis Cardinals 72 90 711 796 .256 .328 .406
Pittsburgh Pirates 71 91 715 822 .262 .326 .415
The Reds are in that if-things-break-right area which should make for an interesting season. I've thumbed through some MSM baseball previews at the newstand and quite a few have the Reds behind the Cards and Astros. That angers up my blood.
I can't find the quote in print...
So there's that.
by Fat Vegas Alan on Feb 16, 2008 12:46 PM EST reply actions
eh
not for the marlins
Different kind of team
the breakdown
3, 5, 7, 11, 12M team option w/ 1M buyout. cut out $250k from each of the first three years to make up the $750k signing bonus. the other 5.25M comes from performance escalators.
very similar and only slightly less than the tulo deal.
Slightly more detailed courtesy of Lance:
Here is the breakdown of the Brandon Phillips contract according to MLB sources I talked to Friday evening.
Total package: $26,917,392/4 years...plus option
2008-2011.
$2,750,000-2008
$4,750,000-2009
$6,750,000-2010
$11,000,000-2011
Club option 2012 for $12,000,000 or $1,000,000 buyout.
Signing bonus - $750,000. Option becomes Mutual Option
with $1,000,000 buyout if Player is traded.
Base in 2009 increases by:
$250,000 for Gold Gold in 2008
$250,000 for Silver Slugger in 2008;
$250,000 if MVP (1st thru 5th) in 2008.
Base in 2010 increass by:
$250,000 for Gold Glove in 2009
$250,000 for Silver Slugger in 2009
$500,000 for MVP (1st thru 5th) in 2009.
Base in 2011 increases by:
$250,000 for Gold Glove in 2010
$250,000 for Silver Slugger in 2010
$750,000 for MVP (1st thru 5th) in 2010.
Base in 20012 increases by:
$250,000 for Gold Glove in 2010
$250,000 for Silver Slugger in 2011
$750,000 MVP (1st thru 5th) in 2011.
Plus:
$25,000 for All Star; $50,000 for LCS/MVP; $100,000 for WS/MVP.
Player will make annual donation to Reds Foundation.
I found some other articles...
From Athletic Nation:
"...(Tip number one for aspiring writers: be self-effacing, it helps you connect to you readers, who are invariably dumber than you. Otherwise, you'd be reading what they write.)
Okay, imagine you've just landed from another planet, and you ask the leaders of Earth to describe the most popular game on the planet. After watching five minutes of soccer, you destroy the television set with your death ray and ask for for the greatest game on the planet, rather than the most popular.
(Tip number two: extended metaphors are best used generously, with tortuous logic, since it helps clarify your point.)
A-ha, says your human host. That game is baseball. What is the object of baseball? The object of baseball is to score more runs than the other team.
So, you say, how do you earthlings measure the contributions of the individual toward the team scoring runs?
Your human host goes on to explain that one looks at things like the ratio of times a hitter reaches base to the times he comes to the plate (on-base percentage); the ratio of his hits to the number of times he comes to the plate, except for some reason discounting the times he came to the plate and walked (batting average); the ratio of total bases gained to the number of times he comes to the plate, but counting a walk as neither a base gained nor a time he came to the plate (slugging average); sometimes the first and third measure are added together for no good reason, and so on.
WTF? Your hyper-advanced alien brain thought the object of the game was to score runs? Why do earthlings have such funny measurements of individual offensive performance?
Screw it, you say, and you use your death ray to blow the whole damn construct up and start over again. That's right, we're going to look at baseball statistics from scratch..."
...Annnnd Part II of their "Staturday" series. Good stuff.
by Fat Vegas Alan on Feb 16, 2008 11:07 PM EST reply actions
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