FanPost

Baseball Mastermind 2008 Top-25 Prospects

I write for http://baseballmastermind.com.  I published my top-25 prospects list and wanted to see some people throw some chairs, or at the least, argue their thoughts.  With Bruce and Bailey ranking pretty high, there may not be too much reason for dissent.  The biggest point of contention may be that I have Barton over Votto.  I'm not %100 on that one, but I think Votto's numbers are going to be pretty home-heavy.  He'd still rank around 26-28.  I have Cueto at about #30, just missing the list:

I wanted to wait for Baseball America to come up with their annual top 100 before I published my list, but maybe getting my list out beforehand will be nice to see how they compare. In compiling this list, I've gone through my own notes on each of these players, consulted ESPN's Keith Law's Top-100 list, Kevin Goldstein's Top-100 list, Baseball America's organizational rankings as well as John Sickel's. I've also consulted scouting reports by the Baseball America staff, as well as Baseball Prospectus' Kevin Goldstein from his Future Shock column, I've consulted the statistics in depth and at this point, I am very happy with my list, which I feel is short enough where I can comfortably and accurately project the players. I thought about going for a top-50 list, but at some point the rankings would be more arbitrary than I'm comfortable with.

In evaluating these players, the rankings are based on a personal system (I'd say more qualitative than quantitative) where I consider a players overall talent and ceiling and measure that against their polish and the liklihood they'll reach their ceilings. I give credit for projectability, but I'm not going to go on any projection reaches by saying Fernando Martinez is a future 30+ home run guy because nothing about his performance indicates that yet. A player must have some power, or hitting that may translate to power, for them to be considered a power source. Finally, I consider defensive value fairly highly as well.

   1. Jay Bruce, 21, CF-L, CIN - I've covered Bruce in detail on this site throughout the off-season. Most major top-100 Prospects lists rank Bruce ahead of Longoria with the exception of Keith Law's list. I feel this is primarily based on Bruce's power ceiling, which is considered to be better than Longoria's as Bruce has the capability to hit for average and power and has the greatest likelihood of growing into a 40 home run per season guy. Defensively, Bruce rates as average to above average in centerfield, but I doubt his range will be great, worse than most centerfielders on this list, and he is better suited to a be right fielder with his strong arm. Bruce gets high, high marks on character and makeup, so all of the finer points of his game that need work are going to be addressed. In the end, Bruce will need to work on his approach at the plate to reach his power ceiling and in order to decidedly beat out Longoria.
   2. Evan Longoria, 22, 3B-R, TB - I'm convinced Longoria will make the most seamless transition to the majors of any of these players in 2008. His hitting is very refined for his age and while the power may not be elite yet, Longoria certainly has the ability to hit 30+ home runs annually after a season or two in the bigs. I really like his athleticism and glove work at third and I feel he will be a plus defender, stepping in and winding up somewhere between Ryan Zimmerman and David Wright.
   3. Joba Chamberlain, 22, RHP, NYA - Chamberlain had an impressive pro debut vaulting his way from advanced A ball all the way to the bigs, where he was never anything short of dominant. In 88.1 minor leagues innings, Chamberlain compiled 135 strikeouts and 27 walks, posting a 2.45 ERA. Once in AAA, Chamberlain was moved to the bullpen both because the Yankees needed help there and to limit his innings. In eight AAA innings, Chamberlain struck out 18 and walked 1, then pitched 24 innings in the majors, striking out 34 and walking 6 to post a .38 ERA. While in the bullpen, Chamberlain primarily stuck with his fastball, which sits in the mid to upper 90's and can hit triple digits and his plus-plus slider that has tight, two-plane break and comes in the high 80's. Chamberlain also throws a curveball and a changeup which will become a bigger part of his repertoire as he steps into the New York Yankee rotation. His pin-point command of those first two pitches is what makes him so great.

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   4. Clay Buchholz, 23, RHP, BOS - Buchholz followed up his stellar 2006 season with an even better 2007 in which he pitched 125.1 innings between AA and AAA, striking out 171 batters and walking 35, posting a 2.44 ERA. Buchholz was then promoted to the bigs and threw a no-hitter in his second major league start. Buchholz throws a four-seam fastball that sits 92-94 and maxes out 97 and a two-seam fastball that has some sink. He combines that with a 12-6 plus-plus curveball and a solid to plus changeup. He also features a slider, which is probably his worse pitch. Buchholz is noted for having exceptional command of all of his pitches as well as a strong mound presence and will be competing against Chamberlain for pitching superiority for years to come.
   5. Clayton Kershaw, 20, LHP, LAD - Top LHP prospect in the game. Kershaw's fastball sits 94-96 and tops out at 98. His curveball is considered a plus-plus pitch and reminds me of Erik Bedard's with a toppling, two-plan break. His control is advanced for his age, but still not where it needs to be. Unless there are a whole slew of unforeseen injuries in the Los Angeles Dodgers rotation, Kershaw will not pitch in the majors until September, if at all. None the less, all scouts seem to be in agreement that he has as much talent and as high a ceiling as any pitching prospect in the game.
   6. Cameron Maybin, 21, CR-R, FL - Maybin was the centerpiece in the deal that sent Miguel Cabrera to Detroit. He has true, superstar potential as a power-speed centerfielder with great range and arm strength. In 2007, Maybin hit .316/.409/.523 with 14 home runs and 25 stolen bases in 323 at-bats but missed time due to a shoulder injury. Maybin has quick wrists and excellent plate coverage and as far as athleticism goes, is as high as anyone on this list. He will make a legitimate run at the National League Rookie of the Year award in 2008, depending on if he starts the year at the big league level and if he can make adjustments to major league pitching.

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   7. Colby Rasmus, 21, CF-L, STL - Rasmus demonstrated in 2007 that he may be the most likely 30-30 rookie in the minor leagues hitting .275 with 29 home runs and 18 stolen bases in AA. His hitting isn't as refined as Bruce or Longoria's, but those skills will develop fairly quickly as Rasmus' K/BB ratio weren't too bad in 2007 (70/108 in 472 ABs). Rasmus should develop into a player somewhere along the lines of a Grady Sizemore depending on how he can cut down on the strikeouts but at this point, his power potential may be even better.
   8. Homer Bailey, 22, RHP, CIN - Bailey had a rough 2007, pitching 45.1 innings in the majors with 28 strikeouts, 28 walks and a 5.76 ERA, while missing time with a groin injury. He still features a fastball and curveball that both rate as plus-plus out pitches. Bailey's fastball sits 93-96 and maxes out at 98 with a lot of movement. Overall control and changeup still need work, but he will need to make those adjustments at the big league level as Bailey will likely begin 2008 in the Cincinnati Reds rotation.

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   9. David Price, 22, LHP, TB - I'll wait for Price, the 2007 first overall pick, to pitch professionally before ranking him ahead of Bailey, but the 6'6" LHP has the potential to rocket through Tampa's minor league system and among the ranks of his fellow prospects very quickly. After more scouts see him pitch, it will be interesting to see how the former first overall pick matches up with Kershaw as the top LHP prospect. His fastball sits 92-94 and maxes out at 96. Plus slider and slurve--a slower version of his slider--and improving changeup form a great combo. He won't pitch in the majors until September, but he looks to impress in his pro debut.

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  10. Travis Snider, 20, OF-L, TOR - In this list, there are only two players I can project hitting 40 home runs at some point in their careers, Bruce and Snider. Others may develop that kind of power and none are locks to do so, but these two represent the best bets to do so.  Snider is among the best hitters in the minor leagues with pitch recognition and power that are advanced for his age. He has a strong enough arm to play in right but he is unathletic and will be a force for the Blue Jays as long as his hitting.

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  11. Franklin Morales, 22, LHP, COL - Franklin Morales reminds me a lot of Johan Santana. Both are power LHP who hail from Venezuela, with devastating breaking balls and changeups. They both are fierce competitors on the mound. Morales throws a curveball, rather than a slider, and while Morales' changeup is a decent offering, it's not the out-pitch that Santana's is. The polish isn't there for Morales, and that shows up in his numbers, but his stuff is off the charts and he gets high marks on character and makeup and the skills will develop. He will have to adjust on the fly as he is set to begin the season in Colorado' rotation.
  12. Rick Porcello, 19, RHP, DET - Many scouts called Porcello the best high school pitcher to be drafted since Josh Beckett, high praise for the Boras client. His fastball sits 92-96 maxes out at 98 and has room for improvement. He throws a curveball, slider and changeup that all have the capability to develop into plus pitches.
  13. Matt Wieters, 22, C-B, BAL - Top catching prospect in baseball by a lot. Switch-hitter with plus hitting and power to all fields. As we've seen with players like Jorge Posada and Victor Martinez, as long as a catcher can handle the work behind the dish, with hard work, they can stick and make it as below average to average catchers, with hitting that makes up for any defensive shortcomings.
  14. Andy LaRoche, 24, 3B-R, LAD - LaRoche hit .309/.399/.589 with 18 home runs in 265 at-bats, although hitting in Las Vegas inflates his numbers because he was over-matched in the bigs, hitting .222/.365/.312 with one home run in 93 at-bats. Many scouts said he was being too selective at the plate during his big league stint. His contact-driven swing will translate to a high batting average with 25-30 home runs in his peak. He has shown great strike zone control all through the minors and will always be a source of on-base percentage. LaRoche plays only average defense and lacks the quickness to excel as a third baseman but he'll be average for the most part.
  15. Mike Moustakas, 19, SS-L, KC - Moustakas is the best middle infield prospect in the game. Selected 2nd overall by Kansas City in 2007 out of Chatsworth high school, he has plus-plus power and hitting due to a quick compact swing with an advanced approach. Many scouts see a move over to second base as a part of Moustakas's future but he may well develop into a player in the mold of Chase Utley if everything goes well.

  16. Jordan Schafer, 21, CF-L, ATL - The five-tool centerfielder had a breakout season in 2007, hitting .312/.374/.512 with 15 homeruns and 23 stolen bases in 565 at-bats. Schafer has a great deal of athleticism and has excellent range and instincts in the outfield with a strong arm. He should develop into a 20-20-type player with excellent defense in centerfield, with his power developing as his pitch recognition and overall strength improves. He's not as big league ready as Ellsbury, but I like the ceiling based on the power and since they both are plus defenders, I'll take Schafer.

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  17. Jacoby Ellsbury, 24, CF-B, BOS - I'm not going to argue with what Ellsbury has going for him: game-changing speed, plus defense in centerfield and solid contact hitting, but to me, as a prototypical leadoff-type player, his ceiling is pretty low. Last season, between AA and AAA, Ellsbury hit .323/.387/.424 with 2 home runs and 41 stolen bases in 436 at-bats. Ellsbury will never be more than a 10+ home run hitter even if his power develops fully and while his defense at a middle of the diamond position is valuable, I doubt he will ever become a super-star.

  18. Reid Brignac, 22, SS-L, TB - Brignac had what would seem like a down-year compared to 2006, but still managed to hit .260/.328/.433 with 17 home runs in 527 AA at-bats. One plus on the season was Brignac managed to improve his defense to the point where talks of moving him to third are mostly gone. Brignac is still one of the top power-hitting middle infield prospects in the game today.
  19. Wade Davis, 22, RHP, TB - Davis may not get as much credit as David Price and Evan Longoria, but he is every bit the power prospect and would earn more attention in another system. He has a fastball that sits 94-96 and maxes out at 98 with a plus power curve and below average changeup. He could use some work on his overall command but his fastball and curveball have a lot of potential.
  20. Andrew McCutchen, 21, CF-R, PIT - The Pirates rushed McCutchen in his age 20 season, all the way up to AAA, but he struggled for most of the season and only managed to hit .257/.327/.383 with 10 home runs in 446 AA at-bats. He still has a lot of potential as an athletic, power-speed player and has drawn comparison to Marquis Grissom.

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  21. Fernando Martinez, 19, CF-L, NYN - Martinez held his own in AA as an 18 year-old hitting .271/.336/.377 with 4 home runs in 236 at-bats. This is a remarkable feat for an 18 year old, but it doesn't tell us much about Martinez, other than that he can hit. A lot of his value stems from his projectability, young age and his athleticism. He will likely be moved from centerfield and that reduces a lot of his value because we have so little idea how his power will develop. I am fairly convinced Martinez will be an excellent hitter and athlete but the development of his power will play the biggest role in the impact he makes in his career.

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  22. Desmond Jennings, 21, CF-R, TB - Jennings had a breakout season in 2007, hitting .316/.401/.465 with 9 home runs and 45 stolen bases in 387 at-bats in A ball. The toolsy outfielder has the potential to be a 10-20 home run hitter, with great speed and range in the outfield. He may wind up somewhere around Carl Crawford if his skills continue to improve.
  23. Ian Kennedy, 23, RHP, NYA - Kennedy followed Chamberlain all the way up through the New York Yankees minor league system, starting at advanced A ball all the way to the bigs. Kennedy features a fastball that sits 88-91 that he locates very well. His curveball is average and his changeup, which features late drop is his best pitch, which will serve as an out-pitch for the righty. I like Kennedy's command and poise, but I'm not convinced he will ever be more than a #3 starter due to his low velocity. The Brad Radke comparison is fair, but also represents a best-case scenario.

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  24. Daric Barton, 22, 1B-L, OAK - Barton was sent to Oakland as the centerpiece in the Mark Mulder trade in 2004. At the time, Oakland Athletics General Manager Billy Beane said Barton's A ball numbers were "Pujols-like." Barton's pure hitting ability and plate discipline have been considered plus-plus since he was still a teenager and last season, he hit .293/.389/.438 with 9 home runs in 516 AAA at-bats. Barton will likely start the season as the A's first baseman or DH and will develop into a high contact, high walk player very quickly. At the very worst, he'll wind up a Lyle Overbay-type player, but I think a left-handed Edgar Martinez may be a closer comp.

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  25. Carlos Gonzalez, 23, OF-L, OAK - Gonzalez was sent to Oakland in the Dan Haren trade. He has amazing tools, with his power and arm strength as his two most notable assets. He isn't fast, but he may be able to remain in centerfield for the time being. Last season, Gonzalez hit .288/.336/.478 with 18 home runs between AA and AAA, but many observers questioned his effort level. He may not start the year in Oakland, but will play a significant portion of the time at the big league level. It will be interesting to see how Oakland's oranizational emphasis on patience will affect Gonzalez, who will benefit from an improvement in his approach to combine with his plus power hitting.