Today's rumors: Encarnacion to SF?
by Thundering Turtle on Dec 5, 2008 1:21 PM EST
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PrintFrom John Fay:
Rumors and random thoughts as I wonder whether you get cell phone reception at the craps tables in the Bellagio:
--Walt Jocketty sounded pretty confident that the Reds will get something done at the Winter Meetings, which start Monday at the aforementioned Bellagio in Las Vegas. "We've had a lot of discussions with clubs," he said. "Hopefully, we'll be able to follow up and get something done." They better I put together a depth chart for the Sunday paper and the outfield is about as thin Manute Bol.
--Heard from a reliable source today that the Giants are interested in the Edwin Encarnacion. I think Encarnacion is the most likely Red to be traded for two reasons: He's got high-value and the Reds are deep in the minors at third base.
--Heard from an unreliable source (random e-mail) that Homer Bailey had been traded. The reason the e-mailer said Bailey had been trades is he had packed up and left Houston. Why Bailey would go anywhere upon being traded i don't know. But I'd put Bailey right behind Encarnacion on the most-likely-to-be-traded list.
--If Encarnacion remains a Reds he almost certainly will remain at third base. Joey Votto will remain at first. "The only way we would move them is if we traded for a third baseman or first baseman," Jocketty said. "We're not going to move just to move them."
--Jocketty got a chuckle at the Votto-to-Washington Nationals talk. Is that Votto going to get traded? "No." I don't see Jimmy B. as being a Reds trading partner as long as Jocketty's in charge. The two have not made a trade since the Jeff Brantley-for-Dmitri Young deal in 1997. "That one didn't work out too good."
--Nice gesture by the Reds to not raise ticket prices. I'd go a step further and cut the price a buck or so on the cheapest seats. That would be a nice thing to announce at Redsfest.
--T.R. Sullivan, the MLB.com guy in Texas, is reporting that the Reds are a possible trade partner for catcher Gerald Laird. He hit .276/.329/.398 last year. Fielding percentage doesn't tell you everything about a catcher's defense, but Laird's (.986) was the second lowest of any catcher in AL who caught more than 50 games.
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But our outfield is also as tall as Manute Bol, which should cut down on some cheap homers
Turtle (or someone who would know better than me), do the Giants have anything we’d want? If they’re not moving EdE to a new position just to move him, I hope they don’t move him to a new team just to move him.
The Giants don't have much.
Yeah, I’d take Lincecum, but the Reds already should have had him. Jeremy Affeldt is an attractive … oh, never mind.
Seriously, Jonathan Sanchez has been speculated as a trade candidtate for quite a while, even rumored to be going to Florida for Jorge Cantu. Brian Sabean shot that down, though. I’ve never been as big on Sanchez as some have. Emmanuel Burris is a possibility to fill the hole at SS, but I don’t see the Reds giving up EdE straight up for him. Does Freddie Lewis turn anybody’s rank? No? Me neither.
We Are ... Marshall!
by Thundering Turtle on Dec 5, 2008 1:39 PM EST up reply actions
I'm big on Sanchez
based on the way he smoked us last year.
by ken on Dec 5, 2008 3:03 PM EST up reply actions
he was dirty
Why have I been blogging for so long? It's certainly not because of the paycheck. Because I could be making a lot more money as a doctor or a professional athlete.
Don't tell Grande that.
"My wife ain't never ran and got me no pheasant." - Fistbands
by BK on Dec 5, 2008 3:09 PM EST up reply actions
speaking of manute bol
have you ever read What is the What by Dave Eggers? it should be on the mandatory read list.
i read both of those
but not What is What. Genius was great, Velocity was not.
by Charlie Scrabbles on Dec 5, 2008 10:24 PM EST up reply actions
I agree with you
Velocity was terminally boring and forced.
by Pops Daniels on Dec 6, 2008 10:56 AM EST up reply actions
Yeah, it is pretty incredible, and incomprehensibley sad, but yet somehow hopeful.
I finished it the week my house was broken into last year and I was tied up at knife point. Remembering his story really helped me stay calm through that. If the main character could survive genocide, and lions, and famine, aerial bombings, loss of loved ones and armed robbery, I could certainly survive armed robbery.
Tanzen!
by Verka Serduchka on Dec 6, 2008 8:51 AM EST up reply actions
I don't think Encarnacion is tall or athletic enough to play small forward
I’m with Brendan on this one though. There’s no sense in moving him just because there’s depth in the minor leagues. If they move him, what kind of player would they be looking for in return? It’s not like there’s one big name player that would put this team over the top, so it would have to be prospects, and I’m not ready to give up on EdE just yet. Unless they trade him for Gerald Laird, which would be the dumbest thing to ever happen.
"My wife ain't never ran and got me no pheasant." - Fistbands
"dumbest thing to ever happen"
To butcher a quote from the Simpsons Movie, “the dumbest thing to ever happen SO FAR”.
"Aio, quantitas magna frumentorum est."
I'm confident ...
that Edwin will be dumped for a bag of baseballs because I have no confidence in any Red’s GM. None. It’s too bad. Team has some young talent to build to 10, but the front office probably believes it can win in 09, and make some moves that hurt 10. Cincinnati professional sports: depressing.
What if....
We trade EE to San Fran for some sort of left handed pitcher and then Bailey and some others to Seattle for Beltre? I think that could do wonders for our lineup and not really hurt us in the long term. Any thoughts?
by Votto for President - 2012 on Dec 5, 2008 1:48 PM EST reply actions
I don't think Votto could run for president in the U.S
and especially not in 2012. He’ll only 28.
Why have I been blogging for so long? It's certainly not because of the paycheck. Because I could be making a lot more money as a doctor or a professional athlete.
um
He’ll only BE 28.
Why have I been blogging for so long? It's certainly not because of the paycheck. Because I could be making a lot more money as a doctor or a professional athlete.
yeah, that's the implication of my subject
Why have I been blogging for so long? It's certainly not because of the paycheck. Because I could be making a lot more money as a doctor or a professional athlete.
Maybe he could be vice-president
He can see the USA from his house.
by Brendanukkah on Dec 5, 2008 2:13 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Considering
The money he’s owed, I think Bailey, another good prospect, and an OK prospect might get it done.
Often wrong, never uncertain.
To seriously answer your question
if it’s some sort of a 3-way deal, then I’m for it. Otherwise, I get a little scared of trades setting up other trades. I’d be afraid of trading EdE and the Mariners upping the ante since the Reds will be desperate for a 3B.
Otherwise, I’m fine with replacing EdE with Beltre, but the Reds will still need some offense and 2010 looks shaky still.
Why have I been blogging for so long? It's certainly not because of the paycheck. Because I could be making a lot more money as a doctor or a professional athlete.
Moving EdE to LF would not be moving him just to move him
It would be moving him to get a solid offensive player out of a position where he is a defensive liability. C’mon Walt, this isn’t moving BP to SS – which barring a major acquisition would be moving just for the sake of moving. This is attempting to upgrade your defense without having to spend anything extra.
And I don’t mind if they trade EdE, but they damn well better improve the team while doing it. Trading him just because there is depth is a fool’s wager.
Why have I been blogging for so long? It's certainly not because of the paycheck. Because I could be making a lot more money as a doctor or a professional athlete.
Heer Heer
The best argument against democracy is a five-minute conversation with the average voter.
Sir Winston Churchill
Righto - Heer Heer !
The best argument against democracy is a five-minute conversation with the average voter.
Sir Winston Churchill
In my experiences
You can easily place or receive a call in a casino, but security are not fond of you doing so anywhere near a table.
Yeah, I’ve been scolded while drunk-dialing.
"Aio, quantitas magna frumentorum est."
Hold on
I think Encarnacion is the most likely Red to be traded for two reasons: He’s got high-value and the Reds are deep in the minors at third base.
If they’re not moving EdE to a new position just to move him, I hope they don’t move him to a new team just to move him….There’s no sense in moving him just because there’s depth in the minor leagues….Trading him just because there is depth is a fool’s wager.
I don’t read TT’s comment at all like you guys seem to. I take it as he’s most likely to be traded because he’s young and pretty good, which means he should have value to other teams, plus his departure won’t hurt as bad as others’ (like Bruce or Cueto) because there is talent in the minors fairly close.
Trading EdE (or one of the 5th starters) makes more sense for the Reds because they’re more easily replaced from within, that’s all.
Often wrong, never uncertain.
I agree with that reading
But I think moving him to the Giants would be moving him just to move him. I don’t know that they have any attractive pieces that would help our team (and would only take Encarnacion to get).
agreed
i dont see the Giants giving up Cain or Timmy for anything, much less for EdE. they dont have anything else i want, so let’s move on.
i’d be ok with moving EdE for the reasons Sid brought up. but better improve the team this year and years to come, because i still believe in EdE. we’ve been saying it for the past few years, but i really believe this is his year to break out. i dont want that to happen for some other team unless we are comfortably in 1st place.
by Charlie Scrabbles on Dec 5, 2008 2:15 PM EST up reply actions
I'm with Charlie.
I can’t see the Giants giving up Bumgarner nor Villalona and there’s not a lot else there I’d take for EdE.
We Are ... Marshall!
by Thundering Turtle on Dec 5, 2008 3:15 PM EST up reply actions
Actually,
The top of their minor league system has some very good players. Also, this is a team dumb enough to give Barry Zito, a guy with CYA votes in only 1 of his 6 pro seasons the richest contract for a pitcher ever, then turned around and gave Aaron F. Rowand $12M/yr for 5 years.
I’m sure a decent trade can be arrainged.
Often wrong, never uncertain.
sure Sabean is dumb
but do you think he’s dumb enough to give up Maddy Bumgardner for EdE? or Villalona? they have some nice talent at the top of their system, but after those two and Posey im not exactly impressed. of course, im not incredibly well versed in the Giants farm system either, but i’d be interested to hear what kind of deal you’d be ok with.
by Charlie Scrabbles on Dec 5, 2008 3:01 PM EST up reply actions
I see
…another arm who’ll probably be in AA ball, Alderson. That gives them 3 high quality starters in the minors, plus Cain, Lincecum, and Sanchez (and Zito, who won’t be going anywhere for 5 more years). Meanwhile, they have real needs at 3B and 1B, and I don’t think they have anyone very close at either spot. EdE would also instantly be one of their 2 or 3 best hitters.
I don’t think they should trade him to SF; I’m also not convinced by the drunken mutterings of Fay that they even want to. But I could see the Giants thinking they really need him in the lineup, and trying to make a deal. The question is what value both Sabien and Jockety put on EdE.
Often wrong, never uncertain.
think the giants are kinda hoping that Zito will need surgery of some kind
so they can stash him away on the 60 day DL, and not have to run him out there every 5 days or relegate him to the bullpen as a mop up man. Plus if he has a torn labrum, capsule, or rotator cuff, there is a chance he would be a better pitcher about 16 months after his surgery, yeah most guys with those types of injuries are shells of who they were before, but can Zito get any worse?
"It is a damn poor mind indeed which can’t think of at least two ways to spell any word."-Andy Jack
Better yet
If he could have career-ending surgery I’m sure the Giants have some insurance. :)
"Aio, quantitas magna frumentorum est."
to be clear
all of the thoughts above are Fay’s thoughts. And I agree with your thoughts, but that’s not what I was saying. I’m not confident that the trading with SF will improve the Reds, which is the sentence that you didn’t copy from me.
Why have I been blogging for so long? It's certainly not because of the paycheck. Because I could be making a lot more money as a doctor or a professional athlete.
I kind of agree
I’m not confident that trading EdE to SF improves the team this year, but he could bring a decent prospect or two, which is what I think they should be looking for if they’re going to trade him to anyone.
Often wrong, never uncertain.
I guess I just don't see EdE bringing any great shakes in prospects
Seems like teams are reluctant to trade major prospects anymore, and even if they were I don’t think EdE would be worth a major prospect. Given his age, I don’t see why you’d deal him unless you could get a prospect or two on the Frazier/Valaika level. Can you see teams given that up for him?
Why have I been blogging for so long? It's certainly not because of the paycheck. Because I could be making a lot more money as a doctor or a professional athlete.
I agree with you
but you could also say that with our starting pitching depth in the system, that Johnny Cueto is likely to be traded because he’s young and good. My point is, the fact that Fay’s bringing it up and thinks it’s likely implies that he thinks a change needs to be made at 3B, and without discussing what the Reds would be looking for from the Giants (or anyone else to fill that spot), it comes off like he thinks that the Reds should trade EdE just to trade him.
"My wife ain't never ran and got me no pheasant." - Fistbands
by BK on Dec 5, 2008 2:21 PM EST up reply actions
Hopefully
Walt doesn’t listen to Fay, because Fay’s an idiot.
And while it’s true there are young and good pitchers in the system, I don’t think anyone considers any of them nearly a replacement for Cueto the way many feel Frazier can replace EdE.
Often wrong, never uncertain.
I was going to laugh at the Giants potentially having Renteria and Encarnacion on the left side of the infield
Then I realized that we’ll likely start Encarnacion and Gonzalez, or Keppinger. And now I’m sad.
Do even the Giants themselves know
Whether they’re building for the future or playing for this year?
"Aio, quantitas magna frumentorum est."
If you look at their moves
I think every year they’re playing for this year; they had 41 year-old Omar Vizquel starting at SS last year on purpose.
Yes, they have some very nice young players, but instead of trying to augment them with more good young players they continually overpay for free agents. If someone with any sense took over that team, they might have a chance some day.
Often wrong, never uncertain.
I think they're being lured into thinking they're contenders
based on the financial problems in Arizona and San Diego.
by ken on Dec 5, 2008 3:09 PM EST up reply actions
That's the way I see it too
Everyone agrees they have some decent young talent. If I’m them I let the Omar Vizquels of the world go, don’t sign the Edgar Renterias, and play all the young guys I can. They’re fucked on the Zito/Rowand contracts, but that doesn’t mean they have to compund the problem a little more every offseason.
"Aio, quantitas magna frumentorum est."
supposedly
San Francisco is the preferred destination of the hefty lefty, CC. There was a rumor that Sanchez was offered for Hardy. They ended up getting Renteria, but I wonder if the idea is that they have to have a complete team to get CC, especially infield.
Brian Sabean
said yesterday they’re not going to make an offer to Sabathia. They don’t want to spend that kind of money.
All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?
all I could find was this from the bayarea insider or some such
Sabean confirmed the Giants have not made an offer to Sabathia or first baseman Mark Teixeira, the two free agents expected to sign for more than $100 million this winter. He described the Giants’ interest as “fluid but not proactive.”
“We’re not out there swimming with the sharks,” Sabean said. “There are too many teams with more seemingly to offer financially than where we’re at right now.”
That sounds like a politician’s way of saying yes, they have negotiated but haven’t put forward an actual proposal. I say be gone Gigantos!!
As an aside
the commenters over at Fay’s blog make me miss shortstop. Fuckin’ Christ.
"My wife ain't never ran and got me no pheasant." - Fistbands
whenever i need a pick-me-up
you know, when im feeling a little insecure, i just mosey on over to Fay’s blog and remind myself that im in the 96th percentile. its better for my self-esteem than sex.
by Charlie Scrabbles on Dec 5, 2008 4:41 PM EST up reply actions
Where you're in the 69th percentile
Aww yeah!
by Brendanukkah on Dec 5, 2008 5:21 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Three Team Deal?
I can see a three-way deal where the Giants get EdE, the Twins get Sanchez and the Reds get Delmon Young. Not sure if Young is an upgrade over EdE.
A 3 Team deal makes a lot of sense.
EdE still has value. He’s an OK offensive player. If paired with a top notch SS he could be adequate at 3B. Mostly he is just a dull player. He makes the occasional great play and can hit 25 HRs a year. But mostly his energy doesn’t add much to the ‘team’. Great teams are all about, feeding on each other’s
positive high energy. Just look at the BRM. High energy guys – on a scale of 10 being HIGHest
Perez – #10 energy level
Morgan #10
conception #8
Rose # 12
Foster #9
Geronimo #7
Griffey Senior #8
Bench # 9
Bruce #10
Votto #9
BP #10
Josh Hamilton #11
EdE #3
Not sabremetetrics here, my commentary is just based on years of team building in sports and in business. Success ? Energy counts for a lot.
EdE needs to wake up.
That’s why I like Hannigan, Votto, Bruce, BP, Voltron, Bronson, Aaaron, Weathers, even CoCo.
Think about it.
The best argument against democracy is a five-minute conversation with the average voter.
Sir Winston Churchill
what about coffey's bullpen charge
"It is a damn poor mind indeed which can’t think of at least two ways to spell any word."-Andy Jack
What's Freel? 15?
I’d prefer building around players who are very good at baseball and letting the chips fall where they may.
Freel is out of control. But w/out his energy he's never be at the MLB level.Coffey's charge to the mound was a 'waste of energy'.
Part of being very good at baseball, or really anything is having ‘energy’. I don’t mean to say that pure energy alone ( a la Todd Coffey’s charge) is the whole package.
Energy components:
1.Intensity
2.Focus
3. Discipline
4.‘Field’ awareness/Presence
5. As well as drive
Not very scientific…not easily quantified…nevertheless what I’m calling ‘energy’ can make or break a player. Its similar to the contention that managers make a significant difference in how teams perform.
Or maybe more 
Madville rambling along the periphery of reason.
The best argument against democracy is a five-minute conversation with the average voter.
Sir Winston Churchill
seems like a self-fulfilling prophecy to me
Why have I been blogging for so long? It's certainly not because of the paycheck. Because I could be making a lot more money as a doctor or a professional athlete.
I agree that energy makes a difference.
I just don’t think that we as fans necessarily get a very good idea about a player’s energy from just watching the game.
Everybody's a jerk. You. Me. This jerk.
Get seats at the field level - 1sr - 2nd row and hone in on a player for a game
You’ll be amazed at what you can discern.
The best argument against democracy is a five-minute conversation with the average voter.
Sir Winston Churchill
can you hear the energy?...
"It is a damn poor mind indeed which can’t think of at least two ways to spell any word."-Andy Jack
by justin007000 on Dec 7, 2008 12:55 PM EST up reply actions
Mads has a point
Most of us have played competitive sports at some point and can all attest to the fact that you can only gauge how much someone gives a shit if you’re up close and personal. Small mannerisms mean quite a bit in sports (and in everyday life). I don’t doubt for a second that you could get a good read by watching how guys act coming on and off the field and how they interact in the dugout.
NOTE: You’d need to observe the subject for several (10+) games to get a good idea. Everyone had good and bad days.
"Aio, quantitas magna frumentorum est."
i'm just giving him a hard time
"It is a damn poor mind indeed which can’t think of at least two ways to spell any word."-Andy Jack
Justin actually has a point though
Dusty says he ‘hears’ how well some one is hitting or playing or whatever…I could see that my attempt at discussing ‘energy’ could be seen in a similar light.
But it isn’t.
I will contend until it can be undeniably refuted: There are intangibles in sports that make a real difference in how teams function. Leadership is one, Energy is one, Confidence is another…I learned this by being a coach more so than by being a player and I did a lot of both for many many many many years…And as a business owner and executive manager you run into the same intangibles…quantifying them and defining them are really hard but they exist and make an enormous difference.
Example: Homer Bailey has a bad ‘tude. It might change but right now it appears to be semi-cancerous. Can’t prove but its there.
The best argument against democracy is a five-minute conversation with the average voter.
Sir Winston Churchill
Does offense matter?
Pete Abe sat in on a sports management class last night, and says he was surprised at how little difference offense makes. They looked at roster depth for hitters, starting pitchers, and relievers, and found there’s little disparity in hitting from one team to another. The big difference, and what separated the best from the rest, was depth of starting pitching.
Okay, not exactly a surprise…but it does make me even more reluctant to trade Bailey for Dye.
All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?
yeah
I find that hard to believe without seeing the actual study. No offense to Abraham, but I don’t think he’s the kind of person that would be able to validate a study like that as accurate (not that I am either). Yes pitching is very important, but, um, so is scoring runs.
Why have I been blogging for so long? It's certainly not because of the paycheck. Because I could be making a lot more money as a doctor or a professional athlete.
Uh, I don't think I buy this.
The students charted the win shares and durability of frontline players and bench players and broke them down to hitters, starters and relievers. They then compared all 30 teams.
As you might expect, starting pitching is what separated the elite teams from the rest and there was a wide disparity. That was particularly the case with the Yankees. But what struck me was that the offensive production was in a pretty tight range. The frontline players of most teams played close to the mean.
Mainly, I don’t know how valuable the frontline/bench distinction is.
This place is like a sexy preschool.
Not to mention that...
at least from his description, it appears they might have used Bill James’s Win Shares stat, which on top of all sorts of other assumptions, arbitrarily divides up wins between offense and defense. So it wouldn’t really be appropriate here…
This place is like a sexy preschool.
good point
I mean, I wasn’t excited by the fact that win shares was used, but it makes sense that using win shares would mess things up on just the simple idea of talent spread.
Why have I been blogging for so long? It's certainly not because of the paycheck. Because I could be making a lot more money as a doctor or a professional athlete.
"No offense to abraham"
tee hee.
Tanzen!
by Verka Serduchka on Dec 6, 2008 9:01 AM EST up reply actions
Groan!
And if anyone’s really curious, they could probably get in contact with the professor and get more details. I have never known an academic conehead who didn’t love to talk about his projects.
All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?
hey now
that will hopefully be me in about 8 years.
But you are right prof’s have a tendency to drone on and on and may or may not actually care if you listen.
"It is a damn poor mind indeed which can’t think of at least two ways to spell any word."-Andy Jack
Is SF a position? cause we need to move someone to make room for Alonso
Are there any more dinner rolls? -President Ted Kennedy
by The Crushinator on Dec 6, 2008 10:53 AM EST reply actions
Market for Furcal
Furcal just turned down a 4 year deal with the A’s in the $9-10M per year range. The Dodgers didn’t offer him arbitration, the Giants signed Renteria, the Cardinals traded for Greene.
What options are left for Furcal and does it open the window at all for him to come to Cincinnati?
The Reds won't give him the deal he turned down from the A's
Or they better not, at least.
"Aio, quantitas magna frumentorum est."
i think he'll ultimately end up with the A's
but there certainly is an opportunity for the Reds to step in now. is there really anyone else in the market for a SS? i could see the Royals and Indians showing some interest, maybe Tampa if they move Bartlett (less likely).
in the end though, the A’s offered him a fair deal and unless Beane is pissed enough to completely withdraw it he’ll end up taking it. if the A’s offer is off the table now, the Reds could be able to swoop in with a decent offer (3 years, 33 mil?) and nab him. it will be interesting to see what happens.
by Charlie Scrabbles on Dec 6, 2008 3:34 PM EST up reply actions
Here's a gem
from Phil Rogers:
There were 61 hitters who got at least 100 at-bats in the No. 1 slot last season. Their on-base averages ranged from Rafael Furcal’s .434 to Corey Patterson’s .217.
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