I've updated the projected Wins above Replacement (WAR) from this post last week to now include Willy Taveras. In doing this, I noticed some math problems from my previous process, which should be totally expected from me. However, now I've made it so that you can check my work if you are so inclined. I have set up a Google Spreadsheet that will contain the 2009 Projected WAR for the Reds. You cannot edit the document, but you can follow the formulas to check the work. It's ugly at times though, so I warn you. I will keep this updated until the end of Spring Training, but I won't likely mention it again unless there is a significant transaction.
For those that refuse to click links, here are the final results:
|Joey Votto||1B||3.1||Edinson Volquez||SP||3.1|
|Jay Bruce||RF||2.5||Aaron Harang||SP||2.7|
|Brandon Phillips||2B||2.2||Bronson Arroyo||SP||2.2|
|Edwin Encarnacion||3B||2.0||Johnny Cueto||SP||1.7|
|Ramon Hernandez||C||1.5||Francisco Cordero||CL||0.9|
|Ryan Hanigan||C||1.2||Micah Owings||SP||0.8|
|Norris Hopper||OF||1.1||Bill Bray||RP||0.7|
|Chris Dickerson||LF||1.1||Arthur Rhodes||RP||0.6|
|Alex Gonzalez||SS||0.9||Jared Burton||SU||0.3|
|Jeff Keppinger||IF||0.8||Matt Maloney||SP||0.2|
|Willy Taveras||CF||0.7||Homer Bailey||SP||0.2|
|Danny Richar||IF||0.4||Ramon Ramirez||SP||0.1|
|Adam Rosales||IF/OF||0.3||Mike Lincoln||RP||0.1|
|Laynce Nix||OF||0.0||Daryl Thompson||SP||0.1|
|Daniel Ray Herrera||RP||0.0|
A couple of notes on the differences from the previous post. For position players, everything is about the same. I've added Willy Taveras and cut playing time for Laynce Nix. It didn't change anything, though it did get us closer to the expected PAs for the season. The only thing missing now is pitcher at bats and I'm assuming that is 0 WAR.
For the pitchers, I have added 42 innings that I have labeled as "Bad Innings". I did this because we were missing about 40 innings and because I felt like the expected ERAs were a bit unrealistic. I didn't feel like modifying individuals, so I simply added in some bad innings (expected ERA of 5.50). I still don't think it's enough bad innings though.
For those that are wondering, the expected runs scored for this team is 734. The expected runs allowed is 761, which projects to 78 wins. That's pretty much in line with the expected wins from above which is 79.