Updating the projected WAR with Willy

by Slyde on Dec 29, 2008 4:16 PM EST in Off-season Comment 31 comments

I've updated the projected Wins above Replacement (WAR) from this post last week to now include Willy Taveras. In doing this, I noticed some math problems from my previous process, which should be totally expected from me. However, now I've made it so that you can check my work if you are so inclined. I have set up a Google Spreadsheet that will contain the 2009 Projected WAR for the Reds. You cannot edit the document, but you can follow the formulas to check the work. It's ugly at times though, so I warn you. I will keep this updated until the end of Spring Training, but I won't likely mention it again unless there is a significant transaction.

For those that refuse to click links, here are the final results:

Expected Wins					79
Player	Pos	WAR	Player	Pos	WAR
Joey Votto	1B	3.1	Edinson Volquez	SP	3.1
Jay Bruce	RF	2.5	Aaron Harang	SP	2.7
Brandon Phillips	2B	2.2	Bronson Arroyo	SP	2.2
Edwin Encarnacion	3B	2.0	Johnny Cueto	SP	1.7
Ramon Hernandez	C	1.5	Francisco Cordero	CL	0.9
Ryan Hanigan	C	1.2	Micah Owings	SP	0.8
Norris Hopper	OF	1.1	Bill Bray	RP	0.7
Chris Dickerson	LF	1.1	Arthur Rhodes	RP	0.6
Alex Gonzalez	SS	0.9	Jared Burton	SU	0.3
Jeff Keppinger	IF	0.8	Matt Maloney	SP	0.2
Willy Taveras	CF	0.7	Homer Bailey	SP	0.2
Danny Richar	IF	0.4	Ramon Ramirez	SP	0.1
Adam Rosales	IF/OF	0.3	Mike Lincoln	RP	0.1
Laynce Nix	OF	0.0	Daryl Thompson	SP	0.1
			Josh Roenicke	RP	0.0
			Micah Owings	RP	0.0
			Daniel Ray Herrera	RP	0.0
			David Weathers	RP	-0.1
			Bad Innings	RP	-0.5
TOTAL		17.9	TOTAL		12.9

A couple of notes on the differences from the previous post. For position players, everything is about the same. I've added Willy Taveras and cut playing time for Laynce Nix. It didn't change anything, though it did get us closer to the expected PAs for the season. The only thing missing now is pitcher at bats and I'm assuming that is 0 WAR.

For the pitchers, I have added 42 innings that I have labeled as "Bad Innings". I did this because we were missing about 40 innings and because I felt like the expected ERAs were a bit unrealistic. I didn't feel like modifying individuals, so I simply added in some bad innings (expected ERA of 5.50). I still don't think it's enough bad innings though.

For those that are wondering, the expected runs scored for this team is 734. The expected runs allowed is 761, which projects to 78 wins. That's pretty much in line with the expected wins from above which is 79.

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Comments

Yep, this is about right

by teb7 on Dec 29, 2008 4:27 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Mediocrity - The result of hard fought compromise.

Ayn Rand writes:
“Do not let your fire go out, spark by irreplaceable spark…. Do not let the hero in your soul perish, in lonely frustration for the life you deserved, but have never been able to reach. Check your road and the nature of your battle. The world you desired can be won. It exists, it is real, it is possible, it is yours.” -

Uncle Jocko replies:

"Do not take unnecessary risk, dollar by irreplaceable dollar…Do not let the chicken-shit in your soul be in harm’s way, or swayed by the possibility of winning, risking the lonely moment of life you already have and are certain not to give up. Check your road and the nature of your profit…fuck the world, it is real, it possible, it is Bob’s – he owns it. My fire is to make money for Bob and our families. And to be asked to join the same exclusive country club with Mike Brown.

The best argument against democracy is a five-minute conversation with the average voter.

Sir Winston Churchill

by Madville on Dec 29, 2008 6:36 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Oh and BLah Blah Blah Blah

The best argument against democracy is a five-minute conversation with the average voter.

Sir Winston Churchill

by Madville on Dec 29, 2008 6:38 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

hooray!

Taveras projects to be nominally above replacement level!

by Charlie Scrabbles on Dec 29, 2008 4:30 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

And nobody's below replacement level

Except Stormy and that guy named Bad Innings. Must be our 8th inning guys.

All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?

by BubbaFan on Dec 29, 2008 7:38 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Walt sez:

“Yup, just three wins away from being a World Series champion!”

by Brendanukkah on Dec 29, 2008 4:35 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

hope Walt trades B. Innings

by jacob brumfield on Dec 29, 2008 4:38 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

He already signed elsewhere.

Hit the showers, Doug Henning.

I have discovered in 20 years of moving around a ballpark, that the knowledge of the game is usually in inverse proportion to the price of the seats. - Bill Veeck

by PeteyHendrix on Dec 29, 2008 4:49 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I knew Dusty wore wristbands,

but why in the hell is he wearing batting gloves? I wonder if he wears a cup?

"I'm standing at the plate thinking, Where are my hands? Where's this, where's that? Before I know it, the pitch is there and I'm completely out of rhythm." -
-- Adam Dunn

by Joe Nolan's Glasses on Dec 29, 2008 4:54 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

If you were patting Doug Henning's butt, you'd wear gloves, too.

I have discovered in 20 years of moving around a ballpark, that the knowledge of the game is usually in inverse proportion to the price of the seats. - Bill Veeck

by PeteyHendrix on Dec 29, 2008 5:19 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

hey now,

the Reds sure could’ve used Mr. Innings in 2003-06

...because there's already someone posing as Jacob Brumfield

by Cy Schourek on Dec 29, 2008 5:44 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

this means WAR

What do you mean, "blank slate"?

by boobs on Dec 29, 2008 4:46 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Welcome back, dude

Good to see you.

"Aio, quantitas magna frumentorum est."

by jch24 on Dec 29, 2008 5:42 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Nice work again, Slyde.

Judging by these numbers, I’m gonna go fro up nows.

I have discovered in 20 years of moving around a ballpark, that the knowledge of the game is usually in inverse proportion to the price of the seats. - Bill Veeck

by PeteyHendrix on Dec 29, 2008 4:52 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

79 wins?

wild card, here we come!

Reds fan for 40 years!

by gejoe on Dec 29, 2008 5:00 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

L is for Loser

Just ask these girls who didn’t make the Red’s cheerleading squad:

Boy is the 2009 going to a long season…

The best argument against democracy is a five-minute conversation with the average voter.

Sir Winston Churchill

by Madville on Dec 29, 2008 5:12 PM EST reply actions 1 recs

She was lookin’ kind of dumb with her finger and her thumb in the shape of an L on her forehead

Even dumber when the L is facing the wrong way…

All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?

by BubbaFan on Dec 29, 2008 5:32 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Toss up here...

I like the top row middle pocket, couldnt quite commit making the L. Indecisiveness rawks!

Then again top row right corner pocket just seems to go against the flow of peer pressure and went with the blank stare. tough call!!!

by obc2 on Dec 29, 2008 7:28 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

although I certainly know jch's choice

by obc2 on Dec 29, 2008 7:43 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Bronson's hit two of them

Freel met one of them over the internet.

by Red Menace on Dec 29, 2008 9:51 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I might just be high here,

but the more I see of this photo, the more I like it. Each lame ditz has her own story in what can modestly be described as a photo essay on modern pop culture.

Someone please Photoshop Farney into this. Justice must be served.

I have discovered in 20 years of moving around a ballpark, that the knowledge of the game is usually in inverse proportion to the price of the seats. - Bill Veeck

by PeteyHendrix on Dec 29, 2008 7:38 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

that's your second drug related post of the day

sounds like you are having fun

Think of me what you will...I gotta little space to fill

by chandrathan on Dec 29, 2008 7:39 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

but how did Madville get this picture?

how does Madville get ANY of his pictures? Does this keep anyone else up at nights?

...because there's already someone posing as Jacob Brumfield

by Cy Schourek on Dec 29, 2008 7:46 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Nope, just him

"Aio, quantitas magna frumentorum est."

by jch24 on Dec 29, 2008 10:17 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I figured one of them had to be crolfer

and then my brain wouldn’t let me think about it anymore.

by Brendanukkah on Dec 29, 2008 10:44 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Here's a little tidbit from last year's Houston Chronicle

Taveras excels, Purpura still fired

Willy Taveras, who holds the Astros franchise record for consecutive games with a hit, has been a difference maker for the Colorado Rockies heading into the third game of the National League Championship Series.

The Rockies obviously valued his speed and defense, which is why he was added to the NLCS roster even though he hadn’t played in three weeks because of an injury.

In Game 2, he was the player of the game after making an awesome game-saving catch in the seventh inning and then driving in the game-winning run with an RBI walk. Oh, he also had doubled and scored a run in a game that was 2-2 heading into extra innings.

Speed. Defense. Pitching.

Those are the keys to winning.

As Roy Oswalt pointed out earlier in the year, even if Taveras just gets a bunt single, it’s like a double for other people because he can steal second or go first to third on a single or even first to home on a double.

General manager Tim Purpura and Phil Garner weren’t fired until August, but they hurt the franchise tremendously by never understanding the true value of Willy Taveras. They valued Chris Burke out of position over Taveras at his natural position. Because of this mistake, the Astros’ pitching staff suffered.

It’s pathetic to see Taveras starring elsewhere when he should have been playing here. Cecil Cooper and Jose Cruz saw something special in Taveras and kept working with him in 2006. Unfortunately, Cooper wasn’t the manager then.

Do you miss Taveras?

How do you rank the trade that sent Taveras, Jason Hirsh and Taylor Buchholz to the Rockies for Jason Jennings in Astros history?

Posted by Jose de Jesus Ortiz at October 14, 2007 10:59 AM

Only Cool God understand this logic and he ain’t tellin’ us nothin’ theses days

The best argument against democracy is a five-minute conversation with the average voter.

Sir Winston Churchill

by Madville on Dec 30, 2008 12:28 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Speed, defense, and pitching are the keys to winning?

Isnt that kinda like saying ankles, elbows and boobs? One definitely takes precidence over the others…

by obc2 on Dec 30, 2008 9:11 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Minor League Millionaires

This Lehigh Valley Ironpigs blog has a list of millionaires who played in the IL this year. At #7 is the three million dollar man, Corey Patterson.

Also on the list: David Ross and Rob Mackowiak (though it’s probably the Nats who had to pay his salary).

All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?

by BubbaFan on Dec 30, 2008 7:07 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

I know that I am dreaming...

I understand that He strikes out too much but how would a guy like Dunn affect the total number of wins?

Merry Christmas. Merry Christmas, Merry Christmas, Merry Christmas, kiss my ass. Kiss his ass. Kiss your ass. Happy Hanukkah.

by Willie Mays Hayes on Jan 1, 2009 11:54 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Dunn

He projects to be worth about 2.5 WAR next season, so if you added him to the team instead of Hopper/Dickerson full-time (let’s assume we’re stuck with Taveras) then the Reds would win about 80 games instead of 79. If you could assume him instead of Taveras, we’d be up to 81 wins. Honestly, now that they have Taveras, Dunn’s not worth the cost to the Reds.

We’’re in process of trying to a guy with a trade record of working with pitches

by Slyde on Jan 1, 2009 3:07 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs