Poll - What RH power bat do we go after???
Alright the damn Yankees continue to ignore the recession today and signed Teixiera to a cool 8 year 180 millions dollar deal today. So per MLBTR:
Olney now agrees it's an eight-year, $180MM deal ($22.5MM per year). Bill Madden says Teixeira told the Yankees he preferred them all along, after the Angels and Red Sox backed off. Ha. Joel Sherman says the Yankees made this decision with the 2010 season in mind, given the weak free agent market. He says they'll now attempt to trade one of Johnny Damon, Hideki Matsui, Xavier Nady, and Nick Swisher.
The supply of RH bats on the market just doubled with Nady and Swisher. Walt's patience is starting to look very smart.
I think most of us on this site agree that the Reds need 3 things in order to contend not suck and possibly have a winning record next year.
1. Obtain a RH power bat that plays left field (some say RH/LF doesn't matter, I think it Dusty proofs the roster.....so it matters)
2. Improve defense at the 3B and SS positions
3. Obtain an 4th OF to platoon with Dickerson and bat leadoff.
Let's assume Hairston is signed and EE /A Gonz/Keppinger put career put up career defenisve stats. So its up to #1.....What should we do about left field? In the trades assume Bailey for Dye, and bullpen prospects to the Yankees (Roenicke, Viola, etc.). DEFEND YOUR POSITION!!!!!
0 recs |
94 comments
Comments
I rank our options as follows
1. Dye
2. Swisher
3. Nady
4. Burrel
I also think we need to upgrade 3B in the worst way with the following options:
1. Trade for Beltre
2. Trade for Figgins
3. Sign Wiggington
My best case scenerio is to Trade for Dye, Trade EE for Figgins, and sign Baldelli to a one year deal. Figgins plays a solid 3B, bats leadoff and steals a million bases. Dye has a decent year and knocks in a ton of runs. Baldelli has a great come back year.
What do you think?
by Dave from Louisville on Dec 23, 2008 7:46 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
i think we could just trade for Beltre
and fix both LF and 3B. EdE would likely be decent in LF and Beltre’s defense at 3B would gain us 4 wins or so over EdE’s. unfortunately, Bill Bavasi works for us now, so we arent going to get Beltre for a song from the M’s. the new guy they have seems like a pretty astute guy. so in light of that, i think we could get Nady for a few spare parts and just wait for the cavalry.
by Charlie Scrabbles on Dec 23, 2008 7:52 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I'm with Charlie.
If a Beltre deal is reasonable, that’s my preference. I’m sure such a deal could be quite reasonable from the Mariners’ point of view if the Reds also took Erik Bedard.
We Are ... Marshall!
by Thundering Turtle on Dec 24, 2008 9:55 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Is Bedard worth the risk?
What’s his contract look like? And would he benefit from a move to the NL?
"Aio, quantitas magna frumentorum est."
by jch24 on Dec 24, 2008 10:34 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I would take the risk!
If Bedard would make the deal cheaper, or give it better value, and we had a plus defensive 3rd basemen in a contract season we would be in good shape. If Bedard just happened to regain some of his ’07 form we are seemingly competing. (Given the same production from EV and Arroyo, improved production Harang and Cueto.)
by BigRedMechanic on Dec 24, 2008 11:12 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
But is Bedard a flyball pitcher?
That’s my questyion. A flyball pitcher has to strike out a ton of guys to succeed in GABP, IMHO.
"Aio, quantitas magna frumentorum est."
by jch24 on Dec 24, 2008 11:20 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
isn't bedard still in arbitration?
"It is a damn poor mind indeed which can’t think of at least two ways to spell any word."-Andy Jack
by justin007000 on Dec 25, 2008 12:57 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
A deal to acquire Bedard and Beltre.....
Would require an absolutely ridiculous package of prospects.
by Dave from Louisville on Dec 25, 2008 4:36 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
yeah
pitchers who have already had reconstructive shoulder and elbow surgery, by their 29th birthday, require a kings ransom.
"It is a damn poor mind indeed which can’t think of at least two ways to spell any word."-Andy Jack
by justin007000 on Dec 25, 2008 9:15 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I said Swisher
I think he’d be a great fit for this team that could be done without gutting the team. Yeah, Beltre would be idea, but I don’t think that has a snowball’s chance in happening anytime soon.
...because there's already someone posing as Jacob Brumfield
by Cy Schourek on Dec 23, 2008 9:34 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
I agree about Beltre
IF we get Dye, Swisher, Nady, or Burrell….I will be pretty satisfied witht he offseason. I would prefer not to trade Bailey though.
by Dave from Louisville on Dec 23, 2008 9:42 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Swisher #1
He is a plus defensive corner outfield. Put up great offensive stats in a very difficult park in Oakland. Last year looks like a fluke- I would expect him to be a high on-base with 30 HR potential in GABP.
Beltre would be second. Big defensive gain and also expect the park/ league change to be a big help for Beltre.
Dye, Nady and Burrell would be my last grouping.
by davidmac84 on Dec 23, 2008 9:54 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
If we got Swisher and Beltre.........
Our defense would be awesome
by Dave from Louisville on Dec 23, 2008 10:18 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
We haven't a decent RH batter named Nick since Esasky (and he wasn't that good)
Lets go for Swisher
The best argument against democracy is a five-minute conversation with the average voter.
Sir Winston Churchill
by Madville on Dec 23, 2008 10:53 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Esasky was one of the most interesting, frustrating and entertaining
Reds I’ve ever seen. He’d go on those six-week long slumps where he couldn’t hit a bull in the hind end with a bass fiddle. Then he’d have 10 days where he was the best hitter in the history of the world.
We Are ... Marshall!
by Thundering Turtle on Dec 24, 2008 9:58 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Sounds like something that's been dunn since
by Brendanukkah on Dec 24, 2008 10:14 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Rec'd for the punny
"Aio, quantitas magna frumentorum est."
by jch24 on Dec 24, 2008 10:36 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Swisher
- He’s more expensive than Nady, so he should be cheaper to get.
- That being said, he’s not that expensive.
- He’s likely to still be a good player in ’10 when the Reds have a realistic chance.
Of those listed, I’d vote for Burrell next. As fewer and fewer teams show interest, his price tag keeps dropping. I’d fully expect him to perform better than Dye next year, he’ll cost only a 2nd round pick.
However, I’d still rather have Baldelli than anyone on that list except Swisher.
Often wrong, never uncertain.
by sidnancy on Dec 24, 2008 10:18 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Burrell will not cost a pick
the Phillies didnt offer him arbitration.
by Charlie Scrabbles on Dec 24, 2008 10:34 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Baldelli is a 4th outfielder
I don’t think you can count on him to put in over 300 ABs
by Dave from Louisville on Dec 24, 2008 10:41 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
a 4th outfielder shouldn't have over 300 abs if he is a rhh with complications
a 2 year 6 mil plus gets it done if he hits he knows he plays can’t say that in boston
by SadbutTrue on Dec 24, 2008 11:18 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Baldelli has played in 150 games in the last 4 years
no way i would give more than 1 guaranteed year to him.
by Charlie Scrabbles on Dec 24, 2008 11:24 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Couple of things
I forgot that about Burrell. Makes him more attractive, but doesn’t make him more attractive than Nick the Stick.
I don’t think you count on Baldelli being any more than a platoon player with Dickerson. However, I’d give him a big incentive/team option. Committ small ($1.5-2M/1 yr), but show him you’d love to have him if he can still play.
How about this: 1 yr/$2M guaranteed, 2 option years at $6M per or a buyout.
Often wrong, never uncertain.
by sidnancy on Dec 24, 2008 12:25 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Who wouldn't love to have him is he can play?
That’s the point, he still can’t play yet.
by Dave from Louisville on Dec 24, 2008 1:16 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
He played in the World Series
I haven’t heard anything indicating that something has negatively affected his health since then.
by Snake the Jake on Dec 24, 2008 3:00 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Can you believe it?
Can you believe you’re signing Pat Burrell?
Bruce Bonser? Boone Bonser? Boot Bonser? BOOSE BONZER?
by Lakeman on Dec 24, 2008 10:55 AM EST reply actions 5 recs
Rec'd
I have discovered in 20 years of moving around a ballpark, that the knowledge of the game is usually in inverse proportion to the price of the seats. - Bill Veeck
by PeteyHendrix on Dec 24, 2008 2:30 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Yet another rec for you sir, well done.
"Aio, quantitas magna frumentorum est."
by jch24 on Dec 24, 2008 10:38 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I wouldn't mind Nady
but if you have to target Swisher first. He would give the Reds flexibility defensively and would add much needed OBA that this current roster sorely, sorely needs.
Gracias, Jankees.
All Mickey Mouse films are founded on the motif of leaving home in order to learn what fear is.
by Man Mountain on Dec 24, 2008 2:03 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
I don't want Nady
because someone will inevitably start selling Nady in the Nati t-shirts, and I don’t want to live in that world.
We’’re in process of trying to a guy with a trade record of working with pitches
by Slyde on Dec 24, 2008 2:12 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
CinciNady
there’s your T-shirt
by Charlie Scrabbles on Dec 24, 2008 4:20 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Lookatmeshirts would be all over that
"Aio, quantitas magna frumentorum est."
by jch24 on Dec 24, 2008 10:38 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
The people of Cincinnati are already clamoring for this move
Do you know how many “Xavier” shirts I’ve seen around here? Pretty rare that you get that kind of support for a player whose best years were with a division rival.
by Brendanukkah on Dec 24, 2008 4:39 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I really hope we pick up Nady
It’ll finally put all of those shirts I have to good use.
"My wife ain't never ran and got me no pheasant." - Fistbands
by BK on Dec 24, 2008 6:39 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I enjoy losing...
I just thought everyone should know.
by Snake the Jake on Dec 24, 2008 3:02 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
I am not understanding the appeal of either Yankee player.
Nick Swisher’s OPS last year was 742. The average starting CF in MLB since 2001 has an OPS of 780. For corner OFers, it’s 826.
He moved to a hitter-friendly park last year, yet still had a dumper of a season. His away numbers last year in 283 PAs: .301/.294/.596. That’s right – he SLUGGED .294 on the road last year – in a large sample. Our dear CoPat slugged .344 on the road last year in 222 PAs.
But it was a fluke, right? Can someone convincingly make the fluke case to me? The guy hit .219 in almost 600 PAs during his “magical” 27th year of life. He didn’t even switch leagues, just teams. Without injury or some other circumstance, why would we think he suddenly would revert to previous form, back when he was admittedly impressive?
As for Nady, let’s compare again to the average starting corner OFer in MLB since 2001 who had an OPS of 826.
Nady’s OPS:
2005: .760
2006: .790
2007: .806
2008: .867
Steady improvement, but only one year above average for a starting corner OFer. And that year was last year when he started red hot for the Pirates, but after a July 26th trade to the Bankee$, had an OPS of .794 the rest of the way.
So what’s the fluke, Swisher’s single-season decline in a large sample, or Nady’s excellent first-half last year? I have no answers, but neither of these guys looks like a solid answer, either. I don’t think we could bank on either one of them being more than serviceable, in which case I’d rather sign Burrell or Bradley for 1 or 2 years, or even better, trade for Beltre, who is really the best fit for our needs.
Oh – and here’s a point that seems disregarded in our recent discussions: Just because we sign a guy for X years does not mean that he will necessarily hog that position for the full length of the contract. If we trade for Beltre and sign him to a 4-year extention, and Juan Francisco forces our hand, we can trade Beltre. Not every deal ends in a contract-eating buffet of Hattebergs, Cormiers and Stantons. Just the complete busts.
And probably 2 of the 3 last contracts the Yankees signed.
I have discovered in 20 years of moving around a ballpark, that the knowledge of the game is usually in inverse proportion to the price of the seats. - Bill Veeck
by PeteyHendrix on Dec 24, 2008 3:47 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Swisher will be fine
his career BABIP is .313, and last year it was a very unlucky .251. his LD% was actually the best of his career (20.9% and his career average is 19.0). his K rate was up a tad, but still well within his career averages. he was awfully unlucky last year, and i have a feeling that if we are fortunate enough to have him play half his games at GABP next year he’d become a much adored fan favorite and team leader, in the clubhouse and on the field. Walt needs to get this done.
by Charlie Scrabbles on Dec 24, 2008 4:30 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Decent answer.
I am mostly swayed. I’d give up Homer for him. So what is the market price for Swish, estimated by the RR faithful, in Reds’ s prospects?
I have discovered in 20 years of moving around a ballpark, that the knowledge of the game is usually in inverse proportion to the price of the seats. - Bill Veeck
by PeteyHendrix on Dec 24, 2008 6:15 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Guys in the low minors who aren't on the 40-man roster
They already have a crowded roster. They have to clear a spot for Teix. Maybe Dorn, Heisey, Travis Wood.
That’s kind of a reason we don’t match up very well. Most of our talent is on the 40-man. It would probably take a package of guys in the low minors.
by Dave from Louisville on Dec 24, 2008 6:34 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Swisher would be nice...
But I don’t see why signing Teix all of a sudden means that Swisher is expendable. It wouldn’t surprise me to see the Yanks rotate Damon, Swisher, Nady, and Cabrera through their 4 OF spots. There’d even be a starting spot for all of them if Matsui is truly broken. Posada isn’t going to be a full time DH. And don’t forget that the Yanks aren’t sold on Melk-Dud either. He might not even make the team out of spring training, which would make Swisher all the more valuable.
To me, Beltre is the move to make. Putting him at third instead of EE saves 20 runs, and EE can’t be worse in LF than Dunn if he works on it all during spring training. Remember how Ryan Braun was supposed to be terrible in LF too? He’s now an above-average defender out there. Beltre is also playing for a contract, and we all know what happened the last time he played for a contract.
by teb7 on Dec 24, 2008 4:56 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
I think you need both a new 3B and LF
You need significant improvement at 3B and a new bat in left field. What would it to get Figgins from the Angels, they have Brandon Wood to replace him. They need a 1B after the loss of Teix. With EE’s range I think he would be a great 1B. Trade them EE for Figgins. Then go after Dye or Swisher.
Let’s take a look at Swisher’s career #’s
G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS AVG OBP SLG OPS
vs. Left 330 557 90 141 27 1 23 82 120 111 1 4 .253 . 396 .429 .825
vs. Right 603 1557 263 374 90 4 81 242 222 428 6 4 .240 .338 .459 .797
The one thing that is weird about him is his OBP is lower against RH pitching but his power makes up for it. I do think he is good enough to make this team a winner. I also absolutely believe he would love being the leader on this team and Cincy would love his Charlie Hustle style attitude. From a marketing standpoint I think you need to target him, because let’s face it who do you think would put more people in the stands him or Dye. I love switch hitters, if we had Figgins and Swisher I would freak out.
Beltre would be awesome too.
by Dave from Louisville on Dec 24, 2008 6:09 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Rec'd
The Yankees don’t have to trade Swisher. They’re losing three outfielders next year, and are stocking up now because they don’t like the free agent market next year. I could see them keeping Swisher as a bench player for a year. He’d probably get a lot of playing time, with the aging and injury prone Yankees roster.
All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?
by BubbaFan on Dec 24, 2008 9:49 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
good point
i keep forgetting that the Yankees can afford a 7 million dollar bench player.
by Charlie Scrabbles on Dec 24, 2008 11:09 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
IMO
That’s the best use of their money. I want a better bench. They’ll need them, as the last several years have proven.
Because they pay so much money to the starters, they try to economize on the bench. Which means either players picked off other team’s trash heaps, who were usually discarded for a reason, or kids from the farm system, who struggle to adjust to the big leagues when they only get a few at-bats a week.
All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?
by BubbaFan on Dec 25, 2008 6:45 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I can't believe Nobody is beating Dye
That’s crazy talk
by Dave from Louisville on Dec 24, 2008 6:10 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
the thing with Dye
1) i dont think he’s all that good. he’s kinda old, he doesnt get on base as well as he should, and his defense is awful. yeah, he’s a valuable ballplayer, but i think his perceived value is markedly higher than his actual value.
2) i dont want to give up quality prospects for a guy like that.
3) there are better and perhaps cheaper options out there on the free agent market. i dont particularly want Pat Burrell, but i could see him getting desperate towards the end of January and he could take a 1 year deal to reestablish value and enter the free agent market again next year, when there arent so many big fat slow left fielders out there.
4) the word on the street is that Homer wasnt enough for the Sox, and while Homer’s value has certainly dipped, im of the school of thought that 6 years of a potential ace is far more valuable than 1 year of an aging slugger who cant take a walk.
5) adding Dye doesnt make this team a contender. i dont want to give up any part of the future for anything short of a pennant run. ive been waiting for years for this team to get serious, and i think they could really do that in 2010. i can be patient a little while longer.
by Charlie Scrabbles on Dec 24, 2008 11:19 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Oh god
I’ve found our RH bat!
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=3793001
Slammin Sammy Sosa.
Thoughts?
by homerun21 on Dec 25, 2008 6:56 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
I don't mean to be picky
But I’d kinda prefer a RH bat that wasn’t corked.
All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?
by BubbaFan on Dec 25, 2008 11:01 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
well, that is being picky
Think of me what you will...I gotta little space to fill
by chandrathan on Dec 26, 2008 8:48 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Lets get Sosa and Barry Bonds too
VP
Home Run Power
great clubhouse leaders
no base cloggers
Inexpensive
No off the field issues
No Drugs
I’m surprised that Dusty hasn’t figured out a way to talk Walk into to both of these clowns. Both who are over the hill I might add.
The best argument against democracy is a five-minute conversation with the average voter.
Sir Winston Churchill
by Madville on Dec 26, 2008 11:52 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Dusty and Sammy didn't get along in Chicago
Dusty was pissed that Sammy left the clubhouse on the last day of the season before the game was over.
"It is a damn poor mind indeed which can’t think of at least two ways to spell any word."-Andy Jack
by justin007000 on Dec 26, 2008 7:29 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Update
The Yankees are looking to move two from a group of outfielders of Xavier Nady, Nick Swisher and Hideki Matsui. The Angels, Texas, Oakland and Atlanta are considered to have interest.
Per MLBTR
Walt has a good relationship with Cashman, I think one of Nady or Swisher has to be the odds on favorite to be playing RF next year. Hell bring them both in, put Swisher or Bruce in CF and have Dickerson as a 4th OF.
by Dave from Louisville on Dec 26, 2008 6:04 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
if Dickerson isnt the primary CF next year
i’ll be disappointed.
by Charlie Scrabbles on Dec 26, 2008 6:58 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Me too charlie
The best argument against democracy is a five-minute conversation with the average voter.
Sir Winston Churchill
by Madville on Dec 27, 2008 1:12 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Dave,
why isn’t “Boobs” a choice?
I choose nobody, because I honestly don’t want to see Cincinnati waste money and/or prospects when that won’t make a difference, unless they add a couple more players, next year is probably a lost year.
"It is a damn poor mind indeed which can’t think of at least two ways to spell any word."-Andy Jack
by justin007000 on Dec 26, 2008 7:31 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Nobody wants to see Cincy waste money
You may be right about a lost year, but who’s to say they aren’t giong to add a couple of more palyers.
boobs was not a choice because it would win everytime, and I am trying to conduct and unbiased poll.
by Dave from Louisville on Dec 26, 2008 10:38 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
"trying to conduct and unbiased poll"
Dave and Justin are soul mates
Think of me what you will...I gotta little space to fill
by chandrathan on Dec 26, 2008 10:50 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
So I guess you wouldn't vote for "boobs"
Not that there’s anything wrong with that, but I guess you dig Nick Swisher over “boobs.” Again not that there’s anything wrong with that, that’s just your style.
by Dave from Louisville on Dec 26, 2008 11:04 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
while we discussing the poll
i abstained because of the rather insulting final choice. Given the choice of those four I’ll take the seasick crocodile.
by Red Menace on Dec 26, 2008 11:40 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
agreed
An unbiased poll? With “Nobody I enjoy losing” as a choice?
All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?
by BubbaFan on Dec 27, 2008 7:35 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I hate nihilists!
Ve believe in nothing!! Indifference is a form of nihilism, an activity which I do will not entertain nor partake in. Just keep your marmot and scissors any from me.
by Dave from Louisville on Dec 27, 2008 11:15 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, well, you know, that's just, like, your opinion, man.
Maybe I want a different RH bat (Bradley, Kent, Nomar…). Maybe I don’t want to make a move because I’d like to set up the team to win long term. Maybe I want Adrian Beltre to move Edwin to left field. Maybe I want the best available player and reject the idea that he has to bat right handed. I see you’ve framed the question by assuming many of these options are off the table, but I didn’t want to play ball. Have I DEFENDED MY POSITION!!!!!
by Red Menace on Dec 27, 2008 12:47 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Next time I'll put "other"
It’s good to be in the presence of fellow “Acheviers.”
by Dave from Louisville on Dec 27, 2008 11:42 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Nihilists!
Say what you want about the tenets of national socialism, dude, at least it’s an ethos.
"My wife ain't never ran and got me no pheasant." - Fistbands
by BK on Dec 27, 2008 2:28 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
i don't get it
Think of me what you will...I gotta little space to fill
by chandrathan on Dec 27, 2008 9:29 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Reds OF
Sign Baldelli and Hairston. Platoon Hairston and Dickerson in CF and bat leadoff. Need a SS. Should have went after Furcal could have solved SS and leadoff. Dye is on the downside. Swisher hits .244 and strikes out a lot. Didn’t we just get rid of one of those?
by drs1830 on Dec 26, 2008 10:09 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Swisher gets a bounce coming to the NL
by Dave from Louisville on Dec 26, 2008 10:40 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Is that NL bounce a theoretical projection
or is there a measurable standard bump that standardly occurs? Any examples?
I have discovered in 20 years of moving around a ballpark, that the knowledge of the game is usually in inverse proportion to the price of the seats. - Bill Veeck
by PeteyHendrix on Dec 27, 2008 2:08 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Good question
Manny did pretty good after switching leagues. That bump is likely difficult to quantify because everybody’s different. .
by Dave from Louisville on Dec 27, 2008 11:06 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
league switch
MGL did a three part study in 2006.
To summarize there are two ways to compare the average talent of each league:
1) Look at the groups of players that switch leagues. Players get a little worse relative to league after moving from the NL to the AL (so an average player becomes a little below average) and get a little better going from the AL to the NL. Note that we’re talking about normalized stats relative to leagues. For example the Pacific Coast League has a higher batting average than the AL. That doesn’t mean it’s better. You also have to adjust for aging. Players who switch leagues do so on average at age 31, so we would expect them to perform a little worse the next year regardless.
Using this method MGL found that from 00-06 AL hitters were on average 2.6 runs better than NL hitters (measured by Linear Weights).
2) Using inter-league games, compare the performance of batters from each league against the same group or pitchers in the same ballparks. So you look at AL batters on the road against NL pitchers compared to NL batters on the road against NL pitchers (and vice versa). So on the whole you should have the same group of pitchers facing batters from each league in the same parks. There is a “familiarity factor” that attempts to account for AL batters being a bit out of their elements traveling to NL parks. From 97-05 MGL measure a 1.1 run advantage to the AL.
These are the same methods used to determine Minor League Equivalencies. You want to look at players who have played in both leagues.
This works on the average so it’s kind of the same concept you like to mock regarding age 27 seasons. We can’t say Nick Swisher’s stats will improve by a factor of X. The closest we can come is that the average of all the players who go from the AL to the NL will improve by a factor of X and hope that the law of averages is in Nick’s favor.
by Red Menace on Dec 27, 2008 12:41 PM EST up reply actions 4 recs
It's the same concepts that are used for age adjustments on Insurance policies and medical practices
We’’re in process of trying to a guy with a trade record of working with pitches
by Slyde on Dec 27, 2008 7:37 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
rec'd
Asked and answered. Tasty!
And just because I mock the age 27 concept doesn’t mean I don’t believe in it.
I have discovered in 20 years of moving around a ballpark, that the knowledge of the game is usually in inverse proportion to the price of the seats. - Bill Veeck
by PeteyHendrix on Dec 28, 2008 1:11 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I was in my prime when I was 27
Damned shame I was married. A damned shame.
"Aio, quantitas magna frumentorum est."
by jch24 on Dec 28, 2008 10:08 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Oh, and I rec'd this, well said
I believe the age 27 theory is pretty easily explained – it’s about the time that the sum of a player’s knowledge and skill is the highest.
"Aio, quantitas magna frumentorum est."
by jch24 on Dec 28, 2008 10:09 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I found out this morning that I'm not in my prime
I threw with my neighbor for about 30 minutes yesterday. Today, I can’t lift my arm. February is going to be so fun!
We’’re in process of trying to a guy with a trade record of working with pitches
by Slyde on Dec 28, 2008 10:17 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Wait until tomorrow
I’ve always been the most sore two days after physical activity, not the day after. So you have that to look forward to. :)
"Aio, quantitas magna frumentorum est."
by jch24 on Dec 28, 2008 10:48 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
i did that at age 19 a couple of years ago
i played wiffle ball, tried to throw the ball as hard as i could (tried to strike my dad out at the Easter Party), hurt my shoulder and tried to play catch with a friend a week later, and couldn’t throw the ball 50 feet, and my shoulder I couldn’t throw for about a month.
"It is a damn poor mind indeed which can’t think of at least two ways to spell any word."-Andy Jack
by justin007000 on Dec 28, 2008 8:48 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I think it's physical
I read once that male slaves were most valuable at about age 28 (assuming they didn’t have special skills). That was their physical peak.
For women, it was about age 23.
All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?
by BubbaFan on Dec 28, 2008 10:26 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Makes sense
I also think it’s about the time when guys “figure it out” somewhat.
"Aio, quantitas magna frumentorum est."
by jch24 on Dec 28, 2008 10:49 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
could be
But then, you’d expect the peak to be different for players who were drafted at age 17, vs. players drafted after they got out of college at age 22. You’d think counting the years in pro ball would be more important than age. But that doesn’t seem to be the case.
Unless you think the male brain is simply not capable of “figuring it out” until about age 27. I guess that’s possible.
Though if mental maturity were the issue, I’d expect the peak to be a lot higher than 27. ;-)
All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?
by BubbaFan on Dec 28, 2008 11:32 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Here's support for your theory
Geoffrey Colvin, who later wrote a book about this, argues that scientific evidence points to practice, not talent, being the key to greatness. And that includes sports.
So greatness isn’t handed to anyone; it requires a lot of hard work. Yet that isn’t enough, since many people work hard for decades without approaching greatness or even getting significantly better. What’s missing?
The best people in any field are those who devote the most hours to what the researchers call “deliberate practice.” It’s activity that’s explicitly intended to improve performance, that reaches for objectives just beyond one’s level of competence, provides feedback on results and involves high levels of repetition.
For example: Simply hitting a bucket of balls is not deliberate practice, which is why most golfers don’t get better. Hitting an eight-iron 300 times with a goal of leaving the ball within 20 feet of the pin 80 percent of the time, continually observing results and making appropriate adjustments, and doing that for hours every day – that’s deliberate practice.
Innate physical gifts matter, but not as much as you think.
Certainly some important traits are partly inherited, such as physical size and particular measures of intelligence, but those influence what a person doesn’t do more than what he does; a five-footer will never be an NFL lineman, and a seven-footer will never be an Olympic gymnast. Even those restrictions are less severe than you’d expect: Ericsson notes, “Some international chess masters have IQs in the 90s.” The more research that’s done, the more solid the deliberate-practice model becomes.
…Many great athletes are legendary for the brutal discipline of their practice routines. In basketball, Michael Jordan practiced intensely beyond the already punishing team practices. (Had Jordan possessed some mammoth natural gift specifically for basketball, it seems unlikely he’d have been cut from his high school team.)
In football, all-time-great receiver Jerry Rice – passed up by 15 teams because they considered him too slow – practiced so hard that other players would get sick trying to keep up.
Perhaps most interesting: the “ten-year rule.” Scientists have found that it takes at least ten years of deliberate practice to become world-class at anything. That probably ties in fairly well to the age 27 thing. Whether a young player signs a pro contract or goes to college, the late teens is likely to be when he gets really serious about practice.
All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?
by BubbaFan on Dec 29, 2008 5:22 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
rec'd
10 years…20,000 hours…
I’m a world-class masturbater several times over by this standard. Yay for me!
I have discovered in 20 years of moving around a ballpark, that the knowledge of the game is usually in inverse proportion to the price of the seats. - Bill Veeck
by PeteyHendrix on Dec 29, 2008 5:29 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
yeah i saw this guy
on Colbert a few weeks ago. very interesting.
by Charlie Scrabbles on Dec 29, 2008 6:04 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
here's another take
I saw this the other day on tangotiger’s wonderful sabremetric mailbag. Kind of relevant to the Edwin discussion from the other week.
Ditto exactly what Tango said. It always amused and bemused me when the media (or whoever) talks about a player who plays with heart, plays hard, or plays the “right way,” and that therefore they should be worth more than people think they are, based on their “numbers.”
As Tango says, “heart,” effort, and all of that, are already IN the numbers, so what do we care if a player plays at 100% or 50%. The numbers are the numbers and reflect talent + effort (and heart). In fact, we should be more likely to want to acquire a 2 WAR player who plays WITHOUT much effort or heart than a 2 WAR player who plays with maximum effort, since the former presumably has more talent and if we could ever motivate him to play harder, we would have a better player. The latter player is already maxed out. … MGL
by Red Menace on Dec 30, 2008 5:57 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I don't think it's really another take
The article is very clear: it’s not just practice, it’s deliberate practice. Ten or more years of it.
Just because someone runs out their position or crashes into walls on the field doesn’t mean they do the kind of practice that’s needed to be great.
All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?
by BubbaFan on Dec 30, 2008 6:50 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Well, it's not really relevant to what you posted
The Edwin thread had died though and I latched on to the term talent.
by Red Menace on Dec 30, 2008 7:02 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I vaguely remembering peaking several times between the ages of 19 - 25

Once on an airplane from Chicago to Cincinnati…well that’s a story for another post.
The best argument against democracy is a five-minute conversation with the average voter.
Sir Winston Churchill
by Madville on Dec 29, 2008 7:48 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

by 





















