Community Prospect Rankings: #2
by Slyde on Dec 19, 2008 10:00 AM EST
in Community Prospect Rankings
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PrintRound two of the prospect ranking is starting today. It was a decisive victory for Yonder Alonso as the team's #1 prospect, probably because I endorsed him and you all are sheep and not because every other site has him as the #1 prospect too.
Today we add Kyle Lotzkar to the list as we vote for the second best prospect in the Reds system. I expect this vote to be a lot closer than yesterday's vote and therefore it may have to run all weekend before it is called. I think anyone of the 4 remaining players from yesterday's vote could make a case as the team's #2, and given how closely bunched together they were behind Alonso, it should be interesting to see who steps up into the spot.
Post your argument for your man in the thread. This is a crucial decision, so make it wisely.
Neftali Soto, 3B/IF:
John Sickels rank: 4
Redsminorleagues rank: 2
Age: 19
Draft/Acquisition Details: 3rd round (pick 109), Reds, 2007
Last Level Played: A- (Dayton)
2008 Statistics:
Billings (Rookie): 15 G, 67 AB, .388/.423/.746
Dayton (A-): 52 G, 218 AB, .326/.343/.500
Santurce (Puerto Rico Winter League): 6 G, 11 AB, .091/.077/.091
Todd Frazier, SS/IF/OF:
John Sickels rank: 2
Redsminorleagues rank: 4
Age: 22
Draft/Acquisition Details: 1st round (pick 34), Reds, 2007
Last Level Played: A+ (Sarasota)
2008 Statistics:
Dayton (A-): 30 G, 112 AB, .321/.402/.598
Sarasota (A+): 100 G, 366 AB, .281/.357/.451
Waikiki (HWL): 27 G, 95 AB, .295/.375/.547
Chris Valaika, SS:
John Sickels rank: 3
Redsminorleagues rank: 5
Age: 23
Draft/Acquisition Details: 3rd round (pick 84), Reds, 2006
Last Level Played: AA (Chattanooga)
2008 Statistics:
Sarasota (A+): 32 G, 135 AB, .363/.393/.585
Chattanooga (AA): 97 G, 379 AB, .301/.352/.443
Peoria (AFL): 27 G, 95 AB, .311/.346/.437
Drew Stubbs, CF:
John Sickels rank: 5
Redsminorleagues rank: 3
Age: 23
Draft/Acquisition Details: 1st round (pick 8), Reds, 2006
Last Level Played: AAA (Louisville)
2008 Statistics:
Sarasota (A+): 86 G, 303 AB, .261/.366/.406
Chattanooga (AA): 26 G, 92 AB, .315/.400/.402
Louisville (AAA): 27 G, 95 AB, .311/.346/.437
Peoria (AFL): 22 G, 85 AB, .200/.306/.329
Kyle Lotzkar, RHP:
John Sickels rank: 8
Redsminorleagues rank: 7
Age: 19
Draft/Acquisition Details: 1st round (pick 53), Reds, 2007
Last Level Played: A (Dayton)
2008 Statistics:
Dayton (A): 10 GS, 37.2 IP, .29 H, 24 BB, 50 SO, 3.58 ERA, 1.41 WHIP
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I'm withholding my vote until Slyde votes.
Just kidding. I voted for Frazier. He’s the guy on that list that I’m most confident saying is going to be a major leaguer in Cincinnati someday. It looks like he’s in the process of being converted from a SS to a corner outfielder, and by most accounts he projects to be a 20-30 HR guy.
Also, he’s a really good poker player, apparently.
"My wife ain't never ran and got me no pheasant." - Fistbands
you're waiting until slyde votes, but you posted slyde's information from yesterday
you’re still a kiss ass
Think of me what you will...I gotta little space to fill
by chandrathan on Dec 19, 2008 10:39 AM EST up reply actions
Don't blame me. I voted for Soto!
And now my legions of mindless drones will follow my example and do likewise.
Any time…
Just you wait…
Mindless drones? Guys?
Shit.
I voted for boobs.
(a.k.a., Todd Frazier).
Based on stats only, I think he has the best patience of all of the prospects, and he is a 25-30 HR, 25-30 doubles kind of guy. He also has good speed.
He also OPS’d .808 in 366 AB in the FSL, which is a pitcher’s league (compare that to Joey Votto, who hit .765 and Jay Bruce, who hit .965 at the same level).
Hey Dusty...Are you sure you're OK? You might need an MRI.
by Paul Householder on Dec 19, 2008 11:32 AM EST reply actions
i voted Soto
my argument on his behalf from yesterday’s thread still stands.
by Charlie Scrabbles on Dec 19, 2008 11:38 AM EST reply actions
I'll go with Frazier, but it was a tough decision.
Soto is darned good for a 19-year-old. The difference for me right now is Frazier’s power. When the Reds drafted him, he was projected capable of 20-25 HR in the majors. Now, he’s looking more like a 25-30 HR guy.
I like how Frazier has been able to make adjustments, too. He has quieted his hands a bit and uses his legs more than he did when he was at Rutgers. He has the size and strength to be durable. He’s a very motivated, hard-working player and we all know from another thread that that goes a long way. I don’t think he has enough first-step quickness to be a SS, but could be a fine 3B or very good LF.
Frazier might need a full year of MLB before posting a solid batting average, but he’s likely to get there.
We Are ... Marshall!
by Thundering Turtle on Dec 19, 2008 12:23 PM EST reply actions
i voted soto, but knowing tt thinks it's frazier
i would like to change my vote
Think of me what you will...I gotta little space to fill
by chandrathan on Dec 19, 2008 1:03 PM EST up reply actions
*cough* kissass
"My wife ain't never ran and got me no pheasant." - Fistbands
by BK on Dec 19, 2008 1:06 PM EST up reply actions
that doesn;t even make sense...
I just trust his knowledge on minor league players
Think of me what you will...I gotta little space to fill
by chandrathan on Dec 19, 2008 1:24 PM EST up reply actions
I've always liked you chandrathan.
BK, meh.
We Are ... Marshall!
by Thundering Turtle on Dec 19, 2008 1:44 PM EST up reply actions
I was just getting you back for your post above
and I was going to agree with you but suddenly I don’t… hmm… I should change my vote to Lotzkar, because he doesn’t have any yet, which is surprising considering it’s worth more votes with the exchange rate
"My wife ain't never ran and got me no pheasant." - Fistbands
by BK on Dec 19, 2008 2:09 PM EST up reply actions
I voted for Frazier.
He could be a vital part of the Reds growth over the next two or three years. He could end up being the starting SS, 3B or LF by the end of 2009. All of these positions are major question marks for the organization. The scouts say his batting approach is unconventional, but the ball jumps off of his bat. I just hope the unorthodox mechanics of his swing aren’t quickly exploited by those fiendish Major League hurlers. They have a history of doing that to hitters with flaws.
by Joe Nolan's Glasses on Dec 19, 2008 12:45 PM EST reply actions
Went with Soto
The kids hittability is just unfair. He has the legit ability to hit .300 every year and still hit you 30 HR’s and all of that without being ‘lucky’. When you get kids his age who show legit power and aren’t striking out, its a rare combo.
I love Todd Frazier’s bat and right now its slightly more polished, but it doesn’t project as well as a guy like Soto’s does.
I was eager to see whether Doug would go Soto or Frazier.
We often think a lot alike in evaluating prospects. The Frazier-Soto comparison in a lot of ways comes down to the safer bet. I went with Frazier, the more conservative pick, over Soto, who has higher risk/reward potential. Kinda fun, ain’t it?
We Are ... Marshall!
by Thundering Turtle on Dec 19, 2008 1:48 PM EST up reply actions
Safety nets
Its interesting with these two guys, because while Frazier is closer and that tends to make a guy ‘safer’ I see Soto easily just as safe of a pick because of how his game is. If he were striking out at a higher rate, then I would have some lingering questions with the safeness of his bat, but the guy just has insanely good hand eye coordination with a bat in his hands.
I went with Soto
I havent seen any of the guys play so I just go by what I read on all the other sites. I have heard nothing negative about Soto, but have read in more than 1 place that Frazier will not be able to transition to the majors because of all the hitches in his swing. The biggest complaints I have read on him are how high he keeps his hands and the giant leg kick he has. So for right now I am going to say Soto.
Frazier doesn't have a leg kick
He just does a weird thing with his leg. As for his ‘high hands’, they are high, but he sets them before the pitcher throws the ball, so I don’t see the big deal that seems to be made about it by some. Check out the video of Frazier in the Hawaiian Winter League.
Yeah, he gets into hitting position in plenty of time.
He used to move his hands around a lot more than he does now. I don’t mind the high bat. It’s not like Bobby Tolan or something.
We Are ... Marshall!
by Thundering Turtle on Dec 19, 2008 3:50 PM EST up reply actions
i think
its the fact that he has to “get them in position” thats the problem. I’m with you guys, not a huge deal in my mind, but you can see why people mention it watching the video.
personally i bet you could get him to at least xstart his hands lower initially and it would speed up him getting them into the right position. Something I would at least discuss with him, but like TT said maybe he’s improved that already.
I didn't think there was any such thing as holding your hands too high.
It’s not like he’s going to develop a problem of swinging over the ball. Or that his hands will be “too quick.” I’ve never heard of that happening.
i think
its the fact that it’s a hitch in his swing, when/if he weren’t able to get them into position in time it would slow down his swing. some see it as unnecessary movement, sort of like how EE has to pump the ball before he throws on routine plays.
honestly i dont think its that big a deal
Soto
I just really like that a 19 year old can come right in and hit at that level. As others have said, he doesn’t walk alot but he also doesn’t strike out alot either.
With Bruce, Votto, Cueto, Volquez, Frazier, Soto, Stubbs, and Valaika, the Reds may be 2 years away from being really young and really good.
Often wrong, never uncertain.
Wrong thread, but this just in: Rivera's off the market.
From rotowire:
Rivera agreed to a three-year contract to return to the Angels on Friday, the
team’s official site reports.
I have discovered in 20 years of moving around a ballpark, that the knowledge of the game is usually in inverse proportion to the price of the seats. - Bill Veeck
Before reading any other comments:
So sorry if I repeat something. I voted for Frazier. He’s been solid thus far and poses a bit of a power threat as well. Honestly, I think any of these guys could step up and perform.
People Don't Kill People. Burning Couches Kill People.
Lots of folks voting multiple times.
Kind of like in Illinois.
We Are ... Marshall!
by Thundering Turtle on Dec 19, 2008 3:55 PM EST up reply actions
Am I the only one voting for Stubbs???
I can hope for GG CF defense with high OBP leading off for the Reds. I don’t care if he hits for power or not, as long he plays great D, gets on base, and steals with a high success rate.
I WANT ERIC DAVIS BACK!!!!!!
by Dave from Louisville on Dec 19, 2008 6:03 PM EST reply actions
Have you voted 31 times?
We’’re in process of trying to a guy with a trade record of working with pitches
Stubbs is the guy who most likely could be up in 2009 - So i voted for him
Dave you want ED back…well if he buys his own ticket to the games, purchases his own uniform and is not real uppity, the Reds will take him back.
The best argument against democracy is a five-minute conversation with the average voter.
Sir Winston Churchill
I think I was present the last time you two agreed
"My wife ain't never ran and got me no pheasant." - Fistbands
by BK on Dec 19, 2008 10:20 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
It may have been at O'Bryon's when we were checking out Leah the Red's cheerleader.
Oh and didn’t you vote for Barack too?
The best argument against democracy is a five-minute conversation with the average voter.
Sir Winston Churchill
Oh and BK WAS there, but he was in a kinda semi-induced beer stupor.
The best argument against democracy is a five-minute conversation with the average voter.
Sir Winston Churchill
Holy Moley!
That’s right, Leah! I hope she gets all her holiday wishes, lol.
Im registered GOP, sorry, and Barack is the new Jack Kennedy. McCain was the man in ’00 but Rove/Bush backstabbed and killed his bid. I was PISSED!
BK was a mute, lol. : )
In my defense
between you, Ash, and Mads, there’s no way anyone else was going to get a word in edgewise :)
"My wife ain't never ran and got me no pheasant." - Fistbands
by BK on Dec 21, 2008 12:14 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
I spoke very little as did you BK
and Slyde and ’than and 3Fast etc….ASH was holding court….I feel your pain BK
The best argument against democracy is a five-minute conversation with the average voter.
Sir Winston Churchill
Sooooooooo rec'd
You’re lucky I wasn’t there, I too am a motormouth.
"Aio, quantitas magna frumentorum est."
Valaika!
I picked Valaika. I thought he was a better pick than Stubbs on the day of his draft, and I still feel that way especially given CV’s reported defensive improvement at SS. Soto and Frazier have higher ceilings but are just a little too far away for my ranking, I prefer seeing performance at higher levels, though Soto certainly looks great.
Hey, Lotzkar got a vote!
Hi, hello, and welcome, Mrs. Lotzkar.
"My wife ain't never ran and got me no pheasant." - Fistbands
I always loved those books as a kid.
The Lotzkar Children. Gertrude Chandler Warner was a wonderful writer.
We Are ... Marshall!
by Thundering Turtle on Dec 19, 2008 10:36 PM EST reply actions
Juan Francisco
is obliterating the Dominican Winter League to the tune of .361/.420/.671 with a league record 12 HR by a lefty (old record was 8!).
I doubt he'd grab #2 from Frazier or Soto
so it’s no loss. He’ll be added to the list soon.
We’’re in process of trying to a guy with a trade record of working with pitches
no big
though we might need to start talking about him as #2, certainly over lotzkar. youre the new blog master slyde, slip ups are not tolerated.
eh
40 games in the DWL isn’t going to change that much opinion. We already knew he had power. I’ll need to see more of this over a longer period of time before I believe this is anything more than a hot streak.
We’’re in process of trying to a guy with a trade record of working with pitches
good point
however to be his age/development level, have the numbers he’s had in the past, and be able to pull a hot streak like that means something. like you said, time will tell
the problem I have with him (and most people have this problem)
is that he his K/BB ratio is nearly 7-to-1. He’s done much better with that in the DWL (about 3-to-1), but I don’t know how many of those walks were intentional and again we’re talking about a small sample. I’m definitely excited by what he’s done in the DWL, but he’s still 3rd in the 3B depth chart in the minors in my eyes behind Soto and Frazier.
It should be noted too that both Doug Gray and John Sickels had him as the #10 prospect in the system while Kevin Goldstein at BPro had him as #8. Goldstein was the only one that had Lotzkar rated lower than Francisco, which was why we added Lotzkar to the list first. It doesn’t necessarily mean we think Lotzar should rate higher, just that we wanted to increase the size of the list and he (or Zach Stewart) was the next choice based on Doug & SIckels rankings.
We’’re in process of trying to a guy with a trade record of working with pitches
if lotzkar is on the list now
does that mean he’s the top rated pitcher in the reds’ org? i mean, logically that makes sense, but i may be missing something. i guess homer still counts as a prospect, right?
Homer is no longer a rookie
so he’s not on the prospect lists anymore.
I think it’s split between Lotzkar, Zach Stewart, and Daryl Thompson, depending on what you think he might become. If it weren’t for the injuries, I think Thompson would be the choice. He’s not even a full year older than Stewart and has already seen the Majors. Stewart was impressive last year, but it was only A-ball. Lotzkar’s upside might be the highest (he’s still only 19), but he’s also the farthest away and as they say, there’s no such thing as a pitching prospect.
We’’re in process of trying to a guy with a trade record of working with pitches
There is such a thing as a Santa Claus though.
Isn’t there, Slyde?
by Brendanukkah on Dec 21, 2008 5:10 PM EST up reply actions
Yes, 'nukkah, there is.
but he’s not real happy with you.
We’’re in process of trying to a guy with a trade record of working with pitches
Leave one bear trap in a fireplace and pay for it the rest of your life
Or ol’ St. Nick hates Jewish sounding screen names.
by Brendanukkah on Dec 21, 2008 5:23 PM EST up reply actions
I totally thought Stewart was a starter
but he’s not, he’s a reliever and I’m a dumbass. So, I’d say it’s between Lotzkar and Thompson, depending on whether you prefer upside or predictability. Lotzkar can definitely be the better pitcher than Thompson, but he’s much further away.
We’’re in process of trying to a guy with a trade record of working with pitches
ah
i thought getting knocked out in the first or second inning every start this year didn’t give him enough innings. (i know, i know, i’m exaggerating.)
I understand
I think what he passed was the 45-day limit on the 25-man roster before September. By my count he spent 40 days on the roster last season, all prior to September and 30 days on the roster in 2007 prior to September.
We’’re in process of trying to a guy with a trade record of working with pitches
i see your logic
i didnt think it was that big a deal. he jumped a little for me after the DWL streak, plus I think K:BB ratio is something almost any player can try hard enough to improve and succeed. My thinking is a guy with that much power can make it to the majors and do pretty well even with lots of strikeouts. I’ve been skeptical on him for a while now too.
even if he improves it, I am worried the K:BB thing will catch right back up to him once he gets to the bigs.
Soto
He’s one level below Frazier but 3 years younger. Soto has more upside and is a monster at the plate.
by Snake the Jake on Dec 20, 2008 11:29 AM EST reply actions
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