Chone Projections are here, just in time for Christmas!

by Slyde on Dec 18, 2008 8:49 AM EST Comment 85 comments

Another set of 2009 projections have been released, this time by Rally Monkey (aka Chone Smith). There's a lot to like about this system:

it performs well compared to other systems
it accounts for minor league performance, making it more accurate for younger players
it projects minor leaguers so you can get an idea of their progress relative to their MLB counterparts
oh yeah, IT'S FREE!

Chone has taken it one step further this year and created a whole new site (baseballprojection.com) to release his data. The site is still barebones and under construction, but it looks like it is going to have some really cool stuff including individual pages with percentiles, multi-year projections, and player valuations. This is stuff that Baseball Prospectus does with PECOTA, but they charge you for it. This is a really cool development for free projections. The entire sabermetric community is really starting to kick ass with the open source and free tools they are putting out on the internet.

Anyway, enough of the blabber. What you really want to know is how are the Reds projected to perform, right? Well, it looks like only the hitters are up right now, but you can check them out here. Some highlights:

Joey Votto: .285/.365/.494, 31 doubles, 24 HR, 87 RBI
Edwin Encarnacion: .281/.360/.485, 31 doubles, 23 HR, 79 RBI
Brandon Phillips: .271/.325/.455, 27 doubles, 22 HR, 75 RBI
Jay Bruce: .276/.334/.509, 26 doubles, 27 HR, 77 RBI

I suggest you go to the site to check the rest out. If you are interested in seeing what the player pages will look like, check out Chone Figgins.

(hat tip: jinaz)

0 recs | Comment 85 comments

Story-email Email Printer Print

Comments

Apparently Corey Patterson's going to have a better year for the Reds in 09

"Yes, and it's so important in this sport that the athletes be able to train in the same location." -Cynthia Potter, NBC Synchronized Diving Analyst

by 3 Fast 3 Furious on Dec 18, 2008 9:37 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

For a second thought

the Reds had acquired Chone Figgins.

We Are ... Marshall!

by Thundering Turtle on Dec 18, 2008 9:58 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

apparently

There are two moms on this earth who can’t spell “Shawn.”

All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?

by BubbaFan on Dec 18, 2008 12:13 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

The other one being Sean Casey's mom?

"My wife ain't never ran and got me no pheasant." - Fistbands

by BK on Dec 18, 2008 12:16 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Nah

That’s just the weird foreign spelling.

All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?

by BubbaFan on Dec 18, 2008 12:23 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

that's the irish spelling (where se is pronounced sh)

chone is just made up.

Yes We Did!

by Daedalus on Dec 18, 2008 12:29 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Shawon Dunston nods in agreement

by Brendanukkah on Dec 18, 2008 12:33 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Andruw Jones strikes out looking

"My wife ain't never ran and got me no pheasant." - Fistbands

by BK on Dec 18, 2008 12:39 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs

While Brandon Phillips swings at the same pitch from the on deck circle

"Aio, quantitas magna frumentorum est."

by jch24 on Dec 18, 2008 1:22 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Laynce Nix

Shaykes hys hyed yt yyu.

Hey Dusty...Are you sure you're OK? You might need an MRI.

by Paul Householder on Dec 18, 2008 2:17 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Kalvoski Daniels

cries quietly in forgotten obscurity

I have discovered in 20 years of moving around a ballpark, that the knowledge of the game is usually in inverse proportion to the price of the seats. - Bill Veeck

by PeteyHendrix on Dec 18, 2008 2:52 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I love my uncle Kal

Slyde: "You're like the Ike Turner of RR commenters."

by Pops Daniels on Dec 18, 2008 4:29 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

ixnay on the ayncelay

Bruce Bonser? Boone Bonser? Boot Bonser? BOOSE BONZER?

by Lakeman on Dec 18, 2008 3:06 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Cat Power's momma too

Slyde: "You're like the Ike Turner of RR commenters."

by Pops Daniels on Dec 18, 2008 4:29 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Is that how it's pronounced?

I always figured it was pronounced “Chan.”

by Brendanukkah on Dec 18, 2008 5:46 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Chan is pronounced like Shawn

Think of me what you will...I gotta little space to fill

by chandrathan on Dec 18, 2008 5:56 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

So why isn't your user name

Chonedrathan?

All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?

by BubbaFan on Dec 18, 2008 6:33 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

because chandra's name is chandra...

Think of me what you will...I gotta little space to fill

by chandrathan on Dec 18, 2008 11:55 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

maybe it should be Chayndra

People Don't Kill People. Burning Couches Kill People.

by crolfer on Dec 19, 2008 12:05 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs

Or Shawnda

or Lafawnduh!

"My wife ain't never ran and got me no pheasant." - Fistbands

by BK on Dec 19, 2008 7:06 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

and a flag for you

Think of me what you will...I gotta little space to fill

by chandrathan on Dec 19, 2008 8:40 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

that's a rec for you crolfer

Think of me what you will...I gotta little space to fill

by chandrathan on Dec 19, 2008 8:40 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

The word "chan" send shivers down my spine

That place will end up burning down the internet.

"Aio, quantitas magna frumentorum est."

by jch24 on Dec 19, 2008 9:25 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

i don't get it

Think of me what you will...I gotta little space to fill

by chandrathan on Dec 19, 2008 9:45 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

married dudes often dont, bro

by obc2 on Dec 19, 2008 11:38 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Two things

1. This is really, really cool. Hopefully, a glossary is posted soon.

2. Notice who the Reds’ 2nd most valuable hitter is right now? Should add some fuel to the fire in the other thread.

Often wrong, never uncertain.

by sidnancy on Dec 18, 2008 10:05 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

awesome

a few things though: i think Votto’s is a bit short. i think both his SLG and OBP are a bit down. i hope so anyway. i like that he thinks Kepp will bounce back and EdE will improve. i think Bruce is just about spot on. i think he’ll hit a few more HRs, but you cant argue with that line from a 22 year old.

and the most interesting thing:

.271/.325/.455 – Brandon Phillips
.261/.321/.418 – Danny Richar

by Charlie Scrabbles on Dec 18, 2008 10:23 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Bruce

The HR’s you speak of might be accounted for already in the projection. Bruce is only slated to get 493 AB’s in the projection. If you give him say 550, it would have him on pace for 30 HR’s.

www.redsminorleagues.com

by dougdirt on Dec 19, 2008 1:18 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Need OBP (and yes, this is the old teb7)

These projections underscore just how much we need to sign a right-handed bat that will get on base at more than a .330 clip. This means either Burrell or Bradley. I’d prefer Bradley, but I realize he comes with more injury risk. I think the pitching staff is going to be even better this season thanks to a bounceback from Harang and natural progression from Cueto, and they need to be supported with at least an above-average offense.

And yeah, for those of you who remember me, this is the old teb7. I had to quit this site cold turkey because it was taking too much away from my law studies, and it was quite painful. I’d stop in every now and then to lurk, but I am wholly unaware of most of the site happenings over the past 2 years. I’m happy to say I just took my last law exam yesterday and am officially back. Boy, I missed this place.

by teb7 on Dec 18, 2008 11:45 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

holy shit

it’s a Christmas miracle!

Seriously, man, welcome back! You’ve been missed.

We’’re in process of trying to a guy with a trade record of working with pitches

by Slyde on Dec 18, 2008 11:51 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Welcome back man

I’m not sure if I had joined yet when you left but I know I’ve read some of your comments at some point.

"Aio, quantitas magna frumentorum est."

by jch24 on Dec 18, 2008 11:54 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

At this rate

I’m fully expecting Alan to walk in the proverbial front door on Christmas Day.

Welcome back teb7, Esq.

by Brendanukkah on Dec 18, 2008 11:57 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Nah

It’ll be Michael.

"Aio, quantitas magna frumentorum est."

by jch24 on Dec 18, 2008 12:08 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Welcome back!

"My wife ain't never ran and got me no pheasant." - Fistbands

by BK on Dec 18, 2008 12:03 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

i dont think i was around yet back in those days

but as long as Slyde vouches for you, Hi, Hello, and Welcome back.

by Charlie Scrabbles on Dec 18, 2008 12:24 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

See?

This is what Daedalus was talking about!

by Brendanukkah on Dec 18, 2008 12:34 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

nope

Daedalus was talking about Slyde’s opinions on baseball players. teb7 is a poster, and as far as i can tell Slyde’s opinions on posters are far more accurate. he just made me an admin, you know.

by Charlie Scrabbles on Dec 18, 2008 12:41 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

And here I thought he demoted me to Scrabble-status

by Brendanukkah on Dec 18, 2008 12:55 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

oh

slam

by Charlie Scrabbles on Dec 18, 2008 1:17 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

aww

Thanks y’all. Does Red Menace still haunt this series of tubes?

by teb7 on Dec 18, 2008 3:05 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

The venerable Mr. Menace is currently on the other line

May I take a message and have him call you back when his schedule allows?

"Aio, quantitas magna frumentorum est."

by jch24 on Dec 18, 2008 3:08 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

The Wildcats are foolishly being given double digits against Missouri

Take that to the bank

Welcome back, man.

by Red Menace on Dec 18, 2008 4:32 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Forget the Alamo

I’m hoping we can cut the 2001 Alamo Bowl deficit in half. Any idea if Sutton will be able to play?

by teb7 on Dec 18, 2008 5:59 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Mizzou is gonna dominate.

People Don't Kill People. Burning Couches Kill People.

by crolfer on Dec 18, 2008 8:05 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

As a Big 10 fan,

I do believe you are correct sir.

by chesirecat on Dec 18, 2008 10:20 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

There are alot of "mans" in these posts.

I call gay

No bees? Then who will sting me and walk on my sandwiches?

by The Crushinator on Dec 18, 2008 5:54 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Joey...have you ever seen a grown man naked?

D’you ever…hang around the gymnasium? You like movies about gladiators?

by teb7 on Dec 18, 2008 5:58 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

ever been to a Turkish prison?

it’s not as bad as you’d think.

Sorry. newbie-jacked this.

...because there's already someone posing as Jacob Brumfield

by Cy Schourek on Dec 18, 2008 7:39 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Slyde drinks Captain and diet!!!

Careful on giving him the props on his opinions. But, hey, at least that drink is one rung higher on the drink ladder than Zima.

Anyone else think the Bruce projections are low?!?

by obc2 on Dec 18, 2008 12:59 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

I think 30 dingers for him is a distinct possibility

I’d hope that those RBI projections are low too. I mean, he’ll have Willy Taveras (no he won’t) setting the table for him. Doesn’t Willy Taveras seem like a guy who took it to heart when he heard that good baseball players fail 7 out of 10 times at bat?

by Brendanukkah on Dec 18, 2008 1:28 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Sadly Zima was discontinued about a month ago

But its joke status will live on.

by Red Menace on Dec 18, 2008 4:33 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Clear Zima with Skittle in it for flavor!

Wooooooooo yeah!

"Aio, quantitas magna frumentorum est."

by jch24 on Dec 18, 2008 4:50 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

skittle, GHB

same difference

We’’re in process of trying to a guy with a trade record of working with pitches

by Slyde on Dec 18, 2008 4:55 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I've been drinking

Smirnoff Ice Light and dropping about 3 Everlasting Gobstoppers in each bottle. It’s slightly better than my old fave of Zima with a shot of Blue Curacao added.

If I lived in Ohio, this would apparently make me a homosexual. In Cleveland, it would make me popular.

I have discovered in 20 years of moving around a ballpark, that the knowledge of the game is usually in inverse proportion to the price of the seats. - Bill Veeck

by PeteyHendrix on Dec 18, 2008 5:52 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Are these mutually exclusive?

Everybody's a jerk. You. Me. This jerk.

by andromache on Dec 18, 2008 6:02 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I dunno...

can you name a famous Cleveland homosexual?

I have discovered in 20 years of moving around a ballpark, that the knowledge of the game is usually in inverse proportion to the price of the seats. - Bill Veeck

by PeteyHendrix on Dec 18, 2008 7:49 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I can only think of one person who's famous and from Cleveland at all.

Dennis Kucinich.

Everybody's a jerk. You. Me. This jerk.

by andromache on Dec 18, 2008 7:55 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Beyond Drew Carey

I had to look it up…only to find Hal Holbrook.

Nothing gay about that mustache!

I have discovered in 20 years of moving around a ballpark, that the knowledge of the game is usually in inverse proportion to the price of the seats. - Bill Veeck

by PeteyHendrix on Dec 18, 2008 8:11 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

One collar flap down

Jeffrey Leonard style

I have discovered in 20 years of moving around a ballpark, that the knowledge of the game is usually in inverse proportion to the price of the seats. - Bill Veeck

by PeteyHendrix on Dec 18, 2008 8:12 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I didn't think guys were aloud to buy Zimas or Smiroff Ice Light

by Dave from Louisville on Dec 20, 2008 2:35 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

that's why they go to speakeasies

We’’re in process of trying to a guy with a trade record of working with pitches

by Slyde on Dec 20, 2008 8:57 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

What a bunch of girls!

Pale ale (Palmetto is pretty good).
Single malt scotch (search for Bowmore’s Darkest – it’s unbelievable).
Patrone Silver.
When I want something light, a double martini (Tanqueray Ten).

Anything else should have a little umbrella in it.

Often wrong, never uncertain.

by sidnancy on Dec 18, 2008 7:34 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

pale ale is for fops

give me a good hairy-chested vienna-style lager anytime. its the only medically proven way to enhance the size of that “certain part of the male body”.

by Charlie Scrabbles on Dec 18, 2008 7:38 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Whatever makes Brendan's mom happy.

I have discovered in 20 years of moving around a ballpark, that the knowledge of the game is usually in inverse proportion to the price of the seats. - Bill Veeck

by PeteyHendrix on Dec 18, 2008 7:45 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Patron on ice?

you can have whatever you like, "e"s aside.

and how are we talking about booze and a certain someone hasn’t showed up yet?

...because there's already someone posing as Jacob Brumfield

by Cy Schourek on Dec 18, 2008 7:40 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Ice, also

is for girls. The only thing in a glass of liquor should be liquor.

And I saw the “e” as soon as I hit enter.

Often wrong, never uncertain.

by sidnancy on Dec 18, 2008 7:42 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Madville?

by chesirecat on Dec 18, 2008 10:19 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Sorry

I was at the UC game. :)

"Aio, quantitas magna frumentorum est."

by jch24 on Dec 19, 2008 9:27 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

you're not even close to being the site alcoholic

if anything, you’re the site Baby-daddy

We’’re in process of trying to a guy with a trade record of working with pitches

by Slyde on Dec 19, 2008 9:29 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs

Good call, rec'd

"Aio, quantitas magna frumentorum est."

by jch24 on Dec 19, 2008 9:30 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Oh, and another thing....

I think you drank after me the last time we were out. You might wanna go get tested and see when you’re due.

"Aio, quantitas magna frumentorum est."

by jch24 on Dec 19, 2008 9:32 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

He's not a fop with the single-malt

I’ve been getting ready for Scotland with some of the finest, Bowmore’s included, and it has quickly made its way into my repertoire.

by chesirecat on Dec 18, 2008 10:18 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Jack Daniels on the rocks is a man's drink

Patron Silver and Tanqueray…….Are you trying to impress the ladies in the VIP? Or are you just easily influenced by Lil’ Jon.

Don Eduardo is the greatest super-premium tequila ever.

by Dave from Louisville on Dec 20, 2008 2:41 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Since we're now somewhat off-topic anyway

How about that Wasserman Media Group? Pretty class act. I wonder if it’s bad enough to get them decertified by the union?

While EdE and Volquez are clients (select Managemen, then Baseball), the only player anyone’s even mentioned pertaining to the Reds is Delmon Young.

Often wrong, never uncertain.

by sidnancy on Dec 18, 2008 7:49 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

worst breach since Vince backed out of A2

by Red Menace on Dec 18, 2008 8:34 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Fascinating story

Here’s Tellum’s response. This is pure horseshit:

3. Moreover, the Baseball rules which all agents and teams operate under are clear that no deal exists between a player and a team unless and until: (i) there is a signed and executed player agreement or; (ii) the Player’s Union and the Commissioner’s office have otherwise confirmed the deal. Neither occurred here.

They didn’t have a binding agreement, but they sure as hell had a deal if the Braves’ version of the facts is correct (agent left a voice mail for the Braves saying “we’re good”).

Decertification, if I were guessing (and I obviously am), is probably a high standard and I don’t know if this reaches it. I also get the feeling that this happens from time to time, and that the Braves went apeshit because they’re equally embarassed and angry. But that agent (and maybe the agency) is going to face a serious credibility gap going forward even if all they were doing was bowing to Furcal’s wishes.

by ken on Dec 19, 2008 7:07 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I agree

While not technically against the rules, it was slimy and not good for business in the long run I would imagine. I know if I were a GM I’d think twice about dealing with them.

"Aio, quantitas magna frumentorum est."

by jch24 on Dec 19, 2008 9:30 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs