How about this for a trade idea
by sidnancy on Dec 16, 2008 3:44 PM EST
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PrintConventional baseball wisdom is that you never ever trade within the division. Luckily, I love the unconventional but smart move when it comes to baseball.
What about Mike Cameron? The Yankees have been after him hot and heavy, but shockingly are demanding that the Brewers eat some of his salary (or take all of Kei Igawa's salary).
Want a big RH bat? Cameron makes lefties cry; in the past 4 years his OPS against LHP has been under .900 once. Want to improve the defense? While he's no longer one of the best CF in the game he's still awfully good - JinAz thinks his defense is about as valuable as Dickerson's; UZR had him as the 2nd best CF (the Chone projections are down for some reason). Want a decent value? He's only under contract for '10 at $10M.
Throw Bailey or Arroyo at them (they desperately need pitching; Bailey would offer significant salary savings, but Arroyo might enter the season as their #1 starter). Even if it would take another middling prospect, it would make infinitely more sense than trading for Dye.
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About a month or so ago I raised the samr=e question...
Why not Mike Cameron, I asked…maybe with your sabremetric clout, Sid, you’ll get more response that I idid. I believe that I suggested Bailey at the time as a possible trade. Anyway I am a Cameron fan for a lot of reasons – he could fit in either LF or if needed CF. Plus he has a rep as a great clubhouse guy and he’s a vet. 
The best argument against democracy is a five-minute conversation with the average voter.
Sir Winston Churchill
Maybe
I don’t remember you posting that. It could be because Milwakee had just picked up his option and I dismissed the idea that they’d turn around and trade him out of hand. Obviously, either I was wrong or the Brewers changed their minds. I also may have glossed over it because I didn’t imagine the Reds would make Bailey available for one year of an aging outfielder; again, I must have been wrong.
Like you, I’ve always been a fan – I was one of the vocal few that thought the Reds gave up too much for Griffey, and Cameron was the biggest reason (full disclosure: Antonio Perez was the other reason). At the very least, I’d like Walt to make a call or two about his availability.
Often wrong, never uncertain.
I thought that the Brewers had resigned him too.
The best argument against democracy is a five-minute conversation with the average voter.
Sir Winston Churchill
They did, but now they're looking to trade
Or at least the Yankees are looking to get him.
by Brendanukkah on Dec 16, 2008 5:00 PM EST up reply actions
Mike Cameron
The reason they re-signed him is because he’s Sabathia’s best friend. They thought that might sweeten the deal for CC.
Now that Sabathia’s gone, they don’t need Cameron any more.
All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?
Insightful...
"So are you healthy?" - PeteyHendrix, spring of 1993
"I am NOW." - Chris Sabo
by PeteyHendrix on Dec 16, 2008 6:12 PM EST up reply actions
I'm okay with a deal for Cameron
But I’m not sure there’s a great fit there simply because the Brewers are in our division and baseball is stupid like that. I’m not sure they’d be too excited about Arroyo as it’s my understanding they’d like to cut salary, but Homer might interest them as well as a few other prospects of ours. Of course, they’re also looking for an outfielder in return, if the rumored Melky Cabrera return from the Yankees is on the money.
With Cameron turning 36 in a month and similar, younger, and cheaper players in Stubbs and Dickerson in the organization, I don’t think a Cameron acquisition is in the cards, and I don’t think acquiring him would do a ton to help out our offense — while Cameron’s a good all-around player, offensively I’m not sure he’d do a whole lot better than Dickerson could over a full season.
My thoughts
1. Cameron is only under contract for this year, so he won’t block both Dickerson and Stubbs (I’d be shocked to see Stubbs unless he’s absolutely needed this year).
2. I disagree that he wouldn’t be better than Dickerson offensively. I’d fully expect Cameron to post an OPS over .800 in Cinci next year, a number Dickerson exceeded in the minors once…as a 26 year old in AAA.
Often wrong, never uncertain.
Dickerson has good projections
both from James/Marcel at wOPA .368. Not sure how James derives his projections- but Dickerson as always had a good walk rate at every level and couple with his HR count has improved almost every year from 4 HRs in class A to 17 HRs last year split between AAA and MLB.
Then add Dickerson’s speed and defensive ability and you have an underrated prospect that deserves 500+ ABs next year.
But an Outfield of Dickerson, Cameron and Bruce projects as a plus OF defensively at every position.
Offensively Cameron’s projection is around .330 but this would be low for Great American- I would see him right in line with 08 wOPA .350 or better.
Bruce should be one of the top RF defensively- he has all the physical tools but made a poor adjustment from Center to Right. Its probably not a coincidence he rated better in Center and Jay admitted he was somewhat resistant to the change in position.
This outfield easily could be 30 runs better defensively than last year.
marcel doesn't look at the minors at all
not sure if Bill James does. That’s why Dickerson’s projection is so high.
We’’re in process of trying to a guy with a trade record of working with pitches
Bill James must look at minors
with the big number he projects for Bruce wOPA.380- make it true Jay.
That would be in line with his work on the relevance of minor league stats.
Eh...
While Dickerson won’t match Cameron’s power numbers, I’d expect him to fall in line or better with Cameron’s numbers pretty much everywhere else, including defensively. Cameron’s likely to be the superior offensive player, I just don’t think it’s going to be by a margin that makes it worth the price of trading him plus his contract. I’d rather spend that money on an impact bat for LF and see what Dickerson can do in CF.
Cameron would be a good 1 or 2 year signee. He's in great physical shape and can still swing the bat.
There’s nothing wrong with having a couple of experienced veterans on a team if they can produce. I sometimes think that everyone at RR wants an all ‘young’ team ( I know I stretching it ) but there’s a lot to be said about experience in any job esp. pro sports.
The best argument against democracy is a five-minute conversation with the average voter.
Sir Winston Churchill
I think there is more to be said for talent
and the Reds don’t have enough of it yet. I think you worry about experience after you take care of the talent.
We’’re in process of trying to a guy with a trade record of working with pitches
I agree
He’s not going to help the Reds win the pennant unless they make a bunch of other moves. However, here’s why I like the idea of acquiring Cameron:
You know they’re going to pull the trigger on someone. Cameron is much better offensively than anyone else we’ve heard they’re interested in, and he won’t embarass himself at the plate. He’s that righty OF they’re looking for. Paying him $10M makes more sense than paying it to Burrell or Dye. After this year, they’re free and clear of him if they don’t want him back. And considering what the Yankee’s were offering, I can’t imagine he’ll cost alot in terms of prospects (I’m starting to lean towards the “change of scenery” view of Bailey).
Often wrong, never uncertain.
I just don't see the point
He’s a fine player and would be a great pickup for a team projected to be in the 85-90 win range, but as you said he won’t put them team in contention. If he cost only money it’d be one thing. But I’d rather not give up talent, even talent that arguably needs a change of scenery, for one year of Cameron.
Again
They’re going to do something. Would you rather they trade for Dye or sign Burrell for 3 years? Cameron would be much more valuable than either.
My heart lifted, though, when I saw this. I’d much rather take a flyer on Baldelli than even Cameron.
Often wrong, never uncertain.
Good for him!
Whether the Reds sign him or not, it’s great to hear that his disease is treatable.
We’’re in process of trying to a guy with a trade record of working with pitches
Personally
I don’t think the Reds are interested in Burrell. I think they are making short-term moves this season and letting the minors progress. I’d be surprised if they acquire anybody who is under contract beyond 2010.
We’’re in process of trying to a guy with a trade record of working with pitches
I agree
Based on the names they are linked to, I think the Reds are punting on 2009. It’s a little annoying that we’ll have another crappy season of baseball, but I actually have confidence that Jocketty can implement a plan. Unless they can acquire someone young to continue building around, I don’t think we’ll see any moves with the intention of doing anything but putting a mildly competitive team on the field.
I’ve been wrong many times before though.
We’’re in process of trying to a guy with a trade record of working with pitches
i would not be annoyed at all
if the Reds punted on ’09. in fact, it would be the first time i ever felt the Reds knew what they were doing. its pretty clear that the only way the Reds can compete in ’09 is if we trade some of our most valuable guys, like Cueto and Votto, not to mention cleaning out the minors, for established all-stars.
while it would be exciting to see a pennant chase, it would be much more rewarding to see Jocketty’s plan role out for all the promising young talent we have now. i hope you are right.
jingle bells Batman smells
Robin laid an egg
the Batmobile lost its wheel
and the Joker got away
by Charlie Scrabbles on Dec 17, 2008 10:07 AM EST up reply actions
Yep,
Possible winner for several years with young talent > one year winner on borrowed time
by Pops Daniels on Dec 17, 2008 10:38 AM EST up reply actions
Well, then I'm confused
If they’re punting ’09, why talk of trading Bailey for Dye? Why 2 year contracts for Lincoln and Rhodes? Why offer 2 years to Weathers and Hairston? All of these smell of doing what it takes to get a guy for THIS YEAR.
Often wrong, never uncertain.
well, maybe they don't really know they are punting then
in which case, we’re in trouble.
But I think trading Bailey for Dye falls under trying to field a reasonably competitive team. But I don’t see them trading players they think have bright futures to acquire somebody for this year. To me, that would be a sign of playing for 2009.
We’’re in process of trying to a guy with a trade record of working with pitches
Agreed.
I have discovered in 20 years of moving around a ballpark, that the knowledge of the game is usually in inverse proportion to the price of the seats. - Bill Veeck
by PeteyHendrix on Dec 17, 2008 6:38 PM EST up reply actions
It might not cost much, talent-wise
The Brewers were willing to do Melky Cabrera for Mike Cameron, straight up. Honestly, I didn’t think Melky had any trade value left. Dan Shaughnessy predicted that Melky would end up playing in the Mexican League in a couple of years, and I think he’s right.
If the Brewers can overlook the within-the-division thing, I think Cameron could be had for much less than Homer Bailey.
All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?
I'm amazed that the Yankees didn't pull the trigger
if the offer was Melky for Cameron. Even with CC and AJ, I think they’re still under ’08’s payroll.
The Yankees don't think Cameron is worth his salary
They demanded that the Brewers pay some of it, or take Kei Igawa and pay some of his salary.
That’s why the deal hasn’t been done yet. And why I say the Yankees really don’t want Cameron all that much, or they’d have done the deal by now.
All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?
I think they're bumping around 190 million
They stated, though it might be BS, that they wanted to be under last year’s total of 220 (I think). They also need to sign a 5th starter like Pettite, Lowe or Sheets and want to get a big bat. So crazy as it might sound, they’re stretched for cash. I think the decision was big bat with Melky/AAA guy Gardner in CF or Cam with lesser bat.
Well we know that Mike Cameron has talent. He's a proven commodity.
So if you’ve got 2 guys with verifiable talent and one has lots of experience at the highest level of the game and the other one has very little or none, I would choose the experienced guy to come on board and be the starter and at the same time let him mentor the young guy. So I don’t think its so cut and dried to say that ’there’s more to be said for talent’ in every case. Although I bow to your impeccable talent and point of view, no sarcasm here intended, talent ( as I understand the term) doesn’t always win out over experience.
The best argument against democracy is a five-minute conversation with the average voter.
Sir Winston Churchill
sure
two guys with talent, I’ll take the more proven player every time.
And I’m not opposed to Cameron. My statement in opposition to yours was the implication that experience is necessary to be successful. I believe experience is a luxury and talent is a necessity. Teams don’t win with experience alone. Unfortunately, I think the recent GMs of the Reds have believed that they do. This is why the Reds are frequently in pursuit of veteran presence rather than veteran talent. (Granted, budgetary restrictions are another reason they go the “experience” vs. “talent” route). I’d much rather see a highly talented team of inexperienced players than a collection of mid-range players who have “been there.” I’m not saying that experience is unnecessary, just that it’s more like the thing that puts you over the top than a building block for success.
We’’re in process of trying to a guy with a trade record of working with pitches
we can get some clubhouse motivation
by jacob brumfield on Dec 17, 2008 12:07 AM EST up reply actions
i think the reds should do
"It is a damn poor mind indeed which can’t think of at least two ways to spell any word."-Andy Jack
by justin007000 on Dec 17, 2008 12:30 AM EST up reply actions
Agreed and rec'd Shifu Slyde
The best argument against democracy is a five-minute conversation with the average voter.
Sir Winston Churchill
I wouldn't say the Yankees...
…are after Cameron hot and heavy. They’ll probably sign him, but they don’t feel any urgency about it. They think he’s overpaid.
According to Tyler Kepner:
If the Yankees add Cameron, he would bat in the bottom third of the order. Presumably, Nick Swisher will be there, too. Those two hitters are good for a combined 300 strikeouts a season.
Also, Cameron turns 36 next month. Teams that win tend to have players in their primes, not in decline. In Game 4 of the World Series this season, neither lineup included any player born before 1975. The Yankees have four starters already in Johnny Damon, Hideki Matsui, Derek Jeter and Jorge Posada.
Cabrera had an on-base percentage of just .301 in 129 games last season. Brett Gardner, the other in-house candidate to play center, had a .283 O.B.P. in 42 games. If the Yankees are considering replacing those players, maybe they don’t value them very highly.
But a spring training competition between two motivated young players – both with the kind of athleticism the Yankees say they want – would be fun to see. By all accounts, Cameron is a terrific guy, a friend to C.C. Sabathia and Alex Rodriguez, but the Yankees seem to realize they do not have to make this trade, and they certainly don’t have to make it right now.
The Yankees are offering only Melky Cabrera and Kei Igawa (and possibly offering to take Bill Hall). The Reds could do better than that, if they really want Cameron.
All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?
So what do you think BuubaFan...Cameron for the Reds or for the Yanks?
Or what…
The best argument against democracy is a five-minute conversation with the average voter.
Sir Winston Churchill
I think either team could use him
He’s 36, but still covers CF pretty well. Not sure you’d want his .330 OBP batting leadoff (as you know he would with the Reds). One-year contract, so he wouldn’t block the kids.
The within the division thing is an issue. But the Brewers are also pretty plecked off the Yanks for luring away Sabathia with such an outrageous contract, then demanding they pay some of Cameron’s contract.
I think the Brewers want to be rid of Cameron’s salary more than anything, so the Reds could probably get him for a bucket of balls if they’re willing to pay his salary.
All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?
I have auto-amnesia when it comes to how Dustballs would misuse Cameron (or any Centerfielder/SS)
Shit we need a new manager. Really.
A young guy, with smarts and no fear.
Don’t know who but dusty is such a clusterfuck.
The best argument against democracy is a five-minute conversation with the average voter.
Sir Winston Churchill
I think you meant "FUSTERCLUCK".
That’s what CoPat insists that Dusty’s daughter yells out in bed.
I have discovered in 20 years of moving around a ballpark, that the knowledge of the game is usually in inverse proportion to the price of the seats. - Bill Veeck
by PeteyHendrix on Dec 16, 2008 6:52 PM EST up reply actions
Cameron
He was our centerfielder in 99 but we sent him to Seattle for Junior which turned out to be a mistake. At this point I would go for Juan Rivera.
congrats on your first post
Jeff Keppinger will be delivering you a fruit basket.
by jacob brumfield on Dec 17, 2008 1:01 PM EST up reply actions
But watchout if its Gay Jesus delivering you said basket.
The best argument against democracy is a five-minute conversation with the average voter.
Sir Winston Churchill
He said "fruit basket"
not “tossed salad.” Strange that a man into antiques would be tossing stones at the Queer Messiah’s glass palace.
I heart Man Mounting.
Rave on GJ
This guy says he ‘knows’ you.
The best argument against democracy is a five-minute conversation with the average voter.
Sir Winston Churchill
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