I’m just not convinced Bradley can stay healthy, or even thinks he can stay healthy, playing in the NL.

In fact, his hitting numbers look a lot like BP’s.

Even after a disastrous ‘07 and ’08, Rivera’s career OPS+ is 20 points higher than BP’s. His BA and OBP are about 20 points higher and his SLG is 40 points higher; pre-injury, the difference is even more striking (another 10 points of each).

He isn’t a GG 2B, but he hits alot better than BP.

such as a certain toothpick chewing manager.

With Adam having 382 to 378 advantage- with adjustments for park and league for the 3 year period they are almost exactly equal offensively…its certainly not out of the realm of possibility that Jermaine could replace almost all of Dunn’s offensive value

Dye’s OPS+:151, 106, 126. Career 112.
Dunn’s: 114, 136, 129. Career 130.
Even without knowing their ages, there is no way I anticipate Dye to come anywhere close to Dunn’s offensive value next year. No way.

If the Reds dont lose to much offense replacing Adam, they are looking at gains in..SS.

Thanks to Hairston’s career year, the Reds were actually pretty close to league-average at SS last year.

a couple young arms with plus 8k per 9 averages in their 1st full MLB season.

As was pointed out after the ROY voting, Volquez wasn’t a rookie last year. Also, there is no way he repeats his 3.21 ERA next year. No way.

5th starter with an era around 5 will save you around 40 runs alone

First, it’d take 45 runs over the 189 2/3 IP from the 5th starters to get to an ERA of 5; 2nd, no team can really expect that kind of performance from their 5th starters. You know how many teams whose top 5 starters all had ERA+ over 90? Three – the Rays, Angels and Flubs.

So with Dye I could see an offense 20-30 runs better/ defense 70-80 runs better(5th starter with an era around 5 will save you around 40 runs alone). And that at least starts to get you into the conversation of the wild card.

No, that gets you to 83 wins. The fewest wins by a wild card team in a non-strike season is 88, by the ‘96 O’s and ’06 Dodgers.

The Reds would need one more move or a couple huge move upward moves in performance- but I dont see why Dye cannot be that first move.

Because there are other moves that make a ton more sense because (1) the player is cheaper, (2) the player is likely better, (3) the player is available as a free agent, or (4) some combination of those.

Dye and Dunn have similar wOPA over the past 3 seasons is because Dye had one phenomenal out-of-his-mind year back in ’06. as has been said before, their career OPS+ numbers (which are adjusted for league and park) are Dunn – 130, Dye – 112. its not close.

and getting that kind of production from your 5th starter is almost unheard of. i have high hopes for our rotation, but that is really asking a lot. i think Harang will rebound and Cueto will noticeably improve, but i dont see Volquez repeating his ’08 performance. he was pitching like a God for the first few months of the season, but the latter half of the year he was merely above average. i think an ERA around 4 for him is about right.

But I’d add this:

Since ‘02, Dunn’s first full season in the league, he’s had 2 seasons with an OPS+ under 121, with 114 being the lowest.; he also had fewer than 632 PA once in that time, with a low of 469 (in a year his OPS+ was still 116)

In that same time frame, Dye has 2 seasons over 121 (coincidently, both in the timeframe you’re quoting) while posting 4 of 110 or lower. He’s also had more than 600 PA twice in that time, with only 253 PA in ’03.

In other words, you’re comparing 3 average years for a hitter who’s going to be 29 next year with the best 3 year period in the 13 year career of a hitter who’s going to be 35.

Since you’re using wOPA, let’s use it as intended.

From Fangraphs:

The other great advantage wOBA has is that it’s extremely easy to convert into run values. Simply take a player’s wOBA difference from the league average, divide by 1.15, and multiply that by how many plate appearances he got, and you have a run value above or below average for that player….wOBA – league average wOBA divided by 1.15 times plate appearances = runs above average by linear weights. Simple, easy, and accurate.

So I stuck the numbers in a spreadsheet, and guess what – Dunn was worth over 17 more runs than Dye over the past 3 years because (a) he has 150 more PA over that time, and (b) Dye’s ’07 was worth only 2.4 more runs than average.

		wOPA	Leag. ave. diff.	PA	RAA
Dunn	2002	0.373	0.331	0.042	676	24.7
	2003	0.353	0.332	0.021	469	8.6
	2004	0.403	0.33	0.073	681	43.2
	2005	0.391	0.33	0.061	671	35.6
	2006	0.365	0.334	0.031	683	18.4
	2007	0.399	0.334	0.065	632	35.7
	2008	0.383	0.331	0.052	651	29.4

				total	4463	195.6
				'06-'08	1966	83.6

Dye	2002	0.344	0.331	0.013	555	6.3
	2003	0.235	0.333	-0.098	253	-21.6
	2004	0.338	0.338	0	590	0.0
	2005	0.361	0.33	0.031	579	15.6
	2006	0.417	0.339	0.078	611	41.4
	2007	0.343	0.338	0.005	561	2.4
	2008	0.376	0.336	0.04	645	22.4

				total	3794	66.6
				'06-'08	1817	66.3

More telling, if you look at both players from ‘02-08, Dunn’s been worth 195.6 runs above average, while Dye’s been worth 66.6 RAA. In fact, Dye was worth 0.3 RAA from ‘02-’05. Less than half a run of offense above average from 4 years of a crappy defensive corner OF.

THAT is why you cannot count on Dye to replace much of Dunn’s offense – Dye has 2 seasons in the last 7 worth more than 22 RAA and 4 worth less than 6.5 RAA (3 full seasons of 0-6.5, and an injury season of -21.6) while Dunn has 5 seasons worth more than 24.7, one worth 18.4, and an injured season still worth 8.6 RAA.

White Sox, Reds talking about Jermaine Dye

The winter meetings don’t start until Dec. 8, but the White Sox could act sooner in their quest to retool an aging and power-oriented roster.

But a major-league source said Sunday any deal involving right fielder Jermaine Dye and Cincinnati is complicated by financial matters.

Interesting. Maybe teams are watching their pennies closely, like Bud Selig told them to.

Yankees beat writer Pete Abe says it’s been really quiet on the hot stove front, partly because the economic crisis has teams reluctant to spend. He thinks this could mean some big deals going down at the Winter Meetings.

I was using his situation as an example that even the top HR hitter over the past 4 years is not going to get the payday that he thought he should get. Bad economic times are driving the price all commodities down including pro athletes. Ergo it is a good time to buy if you’ve got $$$$$$$$$. Bob has some money.

Would Dye or Beltre ALONG WITH what other players will boost the Red’s total offense. I poasted earlier that I don’t expect one guy to replace all of Dunn’s offense. Will Bruce pick it up. Will Votto continue to improve? Will EdE finally have a career year. Will Gonzo even play? Can BP get it under control. What about Hannigan or C-Dick? Beltre/Dy/Whoever shouldn’t be looked as replacing Donkey but as an integral part of well thought out offensive scheme.