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Report: Reds in discussions for Jermaine Dye

From WCKY-AM 1530 Homer The Sports Animal's Lance McAlister:

 

Things I'm told
MLB sources tell me the White Sox and Reds are involved in trade talks. I'm told the White Sox initiated the talks. The potential deal involves the Sox sending RF Jermaine Dye to the Reds in exchange for Homer Bailey and another player.
What do you think?
Dye is a right handed run producer that plays RF. He will be 35 in January.
He leads all AL OF in HR's since 2005 with 137.
He has a gun for an arm, but does not move well in the OF.
Money wise: Here is his contract situation.
20009:$11.5M
2010:$12M mutual option ($1M buyout)
He has a limited no trade clause
Homer is 22-years old and has thrown just 81.2 major league innings.

 

McAlister didn't name his source, but I thought some Chicago papers linked the Reds interest in him back in October.  He is an option, but I would assume he would have to be moved to Left Field.  He has a nice arm, but like Lance mentioned range is not there.  Is it me or does he seem like an older right-handed version of Adam Dunn? 

I don't mind trading Homer if we can fill a legitimate hole.  Is this the right guy for our hole?  Is there another player better Homer could bring us?  I figured Homer could land us one of the good 4 young catchers from Texas.

There is no doubt trading Homer now, would be selling low.  He could be a great safety net if the injury bug would bite Cueto, Volguez, Harang, or Arroyo.  Maybe we should hang on to him.

Thoughts anyone?

 

 

 

0 recs  |  Comment 53 comments

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Is this the right guy for our hole?

A question we all must ask in this prison of being a Reds fan.

Why have I been blogging for so long? It's certainly not because of the paycheck. Because I could be making a lot more money as a doctor or a professional athlete.

by Slyde on Nov 25, 2008 12:21 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

haha

very good point.

Find me on MySpace- http://www.myspace.com/mixfmkyle

by MixFMKyle on Nov 25, 2008 12:24 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Slyde, did you erase my Fanpost (TM) on this?

Or did Kyle’s erase mine if we posted them at the same time?

"Yes, and it's so important in this sport that the athletes be able to train in the same location." -Cynthia Potter, NBC Synchronized Diving Analyst

by 3 Fast 3 Furious on Nov 25, 2008 12:23 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

I'm not totally sure it posted mine at all as it doesn't show up in my history.

"Yes, and it's so important in this sport that the athletes be able to train in the same location." -Cynthia Potter, NBC Synchronized Diving Analyst

by 3 Fast 3 Furious on Nov 25, 2008 12:25 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I dropped yours because his was up first and he tagged the players into his fanpost

It’s nothing personal. Just bizness

Why have I been blogging for so long? It's certainly not because of the paycheck. Because I could be making a lot more money as a doctor or a professional athlete.

by Slyde on Nov 25, 2008 12:25 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

No, that's fine, I didn't put a whole lot of effort into mine.

I just wanted to get the topic up there for discussion. Kyle must have posted it while I was typing. No biggie.

"Yes, and it's so important in this sport that the athletes be able to train in the same location." -Cynthia Potter, NBC Synchronized Diving Analyst

by 3 Fast 3 Furious on Nov 25, 2008 12:28 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Unrelated

The Asstros are talkin to Ross The Merciless.

Find me on MySpace- http://www.myspace.com/mixfmkyle

by MixFMKyle on Nov 25, 2008 12:31 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

I might actually like this move more than signing Bradley

the guy can flat-out hit. At one point, he was a good fielder, though my guess is that he’s regressed recently.

Depends on who the 2nd arm is – Homer may be a guy in need of a change of scenery. I’d love having Dye in the lineup for possibly 2 years, in the middle of Phillips, Votto, Bruce, and Encarnacion.

"To me, boxing is like a ballet, except there's no music, no choreography, and the dancers hit each other." - Jack Handey

by JJ on Nov 25, 2008 12:41 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

I think I would rather sign Bradley

As long as he takes his Ritalin and you keep him away from the Injury Stick. If you can get Bradley for 2 years for $23 million, without giving up anybody, why not do it?

Dye and Bradley are basically the same player, except that Bradley is a headcase and gets injured more, which should discount his value. However, Bradley also gets on base more and is 4 years younger.

I still think we should not give up on Homer (and Daryl Thompson or whomever they give up), and if you can fill the offensive hole with a free agent, let’s go ahead and do it.

Hey Dusty...Are you sure you're OK? You might need an MRI.

by Paul Householder on Nov 25, 2008 12:58 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I'm in agreement

If you’d essentially pay the same amount for the same basic results, why give anything up? I would have thought that Bailey could have drawn more than this, but he’s at his low point right now. If Bailey’s stock is so low, hold on to him in AAA until the trade deadline and send him to a team that’s desperate.

Youth wins games; veteran presence wins championships!

by ben nevis on Nov 25, 2008 1:25 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Meh

Its all about pitching. I’m havent soured yet on Bailey. Maybe people in the know have a bigger grasp on things than I do, but I’m not certain he’s Todd Van Poppel yet.

by obc2 on Nov 25, 2008 12:50 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

no thanks

i want nothing to do with Dye.

by Charlie Scrabbles on Nov 25, 2008 1:20 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

boo

with how low they sold on Swisher, I think we could do better. I wouldn’t mind Dye, I just don’t want it to cost me Bailey, the kid still needs time.

by jacob brumfield on Nov 25, 2008 1:30 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

A tree fell on the power lines right next to my house and I've been without power since about 30 seconds after my last comment

I will work on getting some numbers later tonight or tomorrow morning. I have to leave the house right now though.

Why have I been blogging for so long? It's certainly not because of the paycheck. Because I could be making a lot more money as a doctor or a professional athlete.

by Slyde on Nov 25, 2008 5:08 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Dye will be 35 in January.

With Yonder maybe only a year away. I’d take Dye for a couple of years. He can hit and he’s a righty.

2008 – He played in 154 games, .292 average 34 HR. 96 RBIs 44 BB 104 SO

.344 obp/,541slg./126ops

Looks like he would fill the ‘hole’ quite well.

The best argument against democracy is a five-minute conversation with the average voter.

Sir Winston Churchill

by Madville on Nov 25, 2008 2:27 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Dye v. Bradley.

Bradley’s four years younger. Neither is a guarantee to be a lot better than average. On the other hand, Dye seems capable of playing about 140 games a year, regularly.

But I wouldn’t make this trade. I’d much rather see Bailey traded for a young catcher.

Everybody's a jerk. You. Me. This jerk.

by andromache on Nov 25, 2008 3:55 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

We have a young catcher already.

What the Reds need is a RH power bat who can play LF. …Bailey is very iffy…I don’t know at all if he will be able to contribute next year. A Dye or Bradley will. Maybe you could get Dye for Thompson plus a low level prospect, but I’d rather keep Thompson and Ramon Rameriz than Bailey at this point.I respectfully disagree with Pops, a middle aged outfielder with pop can help get the team out of the gate and be competitive more so than a head case pitcher who has no MLB track record. By the trade deadline a whole host of other problems will most likely be rearing their ugly heads.

The best argument against democracy is a five-minute conversation with the average voter.

Sir Winston Churchill

by Madville on Nov 25, 2008 4:41 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

If by a "whole host of other problems"

you mean that the Reds are hopelessly out of it and trying to dump Dye for young pitching, then I totally agree.

by Pops Daniels on Nov 25, 2008 4:50 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

i envision the same scenario

but replace young pitching for worthless retreads

by jacob brumfield on Nov 25, 2008 5:24 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I'm not sold on Hanigan.

I don’t really see him as that young – heck, he’s three years older than Edwin.

The prospects in Texas are younger and have better bats.

Jermaine Dye hit .254/.317/.485 in 2007. I don’t want to pay $11 million dollars and a 22-year old power pitching prospect (headcase or no) for him. Even If he hits as well as he did in 2008, we’re still just replacing Adam Dunn’s production, and I don’t see us making a run for the playoffs.

Everybody's a jerk. You. Me. This jerk.

by andromache on Nov 25, 2008 6:04 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Agreed.

If you trade Homer, trade him for something you can’t get on the FA market for the money you’d pay Dye.

Hey Dusty...Are you sure you're OK? You might need an MRI.

by Paul Householder on Nov 26, 2008 2:17 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Next year isn't our year...

so why give up on Bailey so quickly for a player like Dye?

by sledridge on Nov 25, 2008 6:39 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Someone help me with this

Why are we dangling Homer (if indeed we are)? I know the bit about having to give up talent to get talent, but young power arms are just too valuable a commodity to give up for middle aged outfielders who are not going to put you into the playoffs. This feels like a trade deadline deal, not an off-season move.

by Pops Daniels on Nov 25, 2008 4:01 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

is Homer a Power Pitcher

he was in 05/06 when he was averaging over 10k per 9 innings. 07/08 those numbers dropped to around 7.8k per 9. And the most distrubing aspect of Homer’s performance last year with the Reds was his 4.46 K per 9 lower than that infamous power pitcher Josh Fogg.
Homer’s velocity has never matched the early scouting reports and that more than being a head case or his slow curve is a huge red flag.
A good comparision to Homer is Scott Olson whom was basically traded for nothing this off-season despite great minor league numbers and at least one solid year with the Marlins and a solid September in 08. Mainly because of the scouting reports on his lost velocity Olson had very little trade value.
If the Reds wait until Homer absolutely proves he is not the pitcher he was in 05 and 06 he will have no value and that day is fast approaching.
I think its a reasonable trade to turn him now for Dye whom has a reasonable shot at replacing Dunn’s total value at a reasonable price and his contract will clear in time if Alonso is the real deal.

by davidmac84 on Nov 25, 2008 7:04 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Excellently said Mr. Dmac

If (big word) the Reds don’t sign an experienced player to help replace Dunn’s numbers (Dye could do it) then they truly will be struggling (hopelessly out of it) because we’ve already seen how they farer without offense.
I’m not totally sold on Hannigan either BUT he appears to be a take charge, good game caller, and decent defender. If he can hit .240/.280/750 he’d be just fine. Bailey is young but again how long can the team afford to wait for him to finally fizzle out?

The best argument against democracy is a five-minute conversation with the average voter.

Sir Winston Churchill

by Madville on Nov 25, 2008 7:43 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

a few things

1. the chances of Dye even just replacing Dunn’s value are slim. his career OPS+ is only 112 (and that includes his outlier year of 151 back in 2006). he will be 35. he’s not getting better. Dunn’s lifetime OPS+ is 130. Dunn >> Dye.

2. even if Dye manages to repeat his career best numbers (around 90 RAR), this team is still only a .500 team. Dye is not the kind of player who can change this team into a contender. i dont know if Albert Pujols is that good. well, no he probably is. but no one else. especially not Dye.

3. and the most important thing of all, Homer Bailey is a very important piece of this team. right now, Bailey is a question mark because he is young and has yet to succeed at the major league level. trading him now would be a bad thing for two reasons: his value is at its lowest. he was a top-5/10 prospect just one year ago. but his potential is still very high. not as certain as a year ago, but still high. if we keep him and he busts, its no big deal. high school pitchers taken in the first round rarely succeed with their original team, if at all. but the potential he has is still worth much much more than anything we could get back in trade.

and his story is really a microcosm for the whole team. the fate of this team rests on the potential of youth. Volquez, Cueto, Votto, Bruce, EdE, Burton, Dickerson, Owings, BP, and Bailey…we will make the playoffs if these guys become successful major leaguers. no old and slow(ing) veteran OFer is going to make a positive difference. especially if we have to give up one of these youngsters to get him.

this team is not going to contend next year unless some really lucky things happen. unless Jermaine Dye has shamrocks growing out of his ass, i’ll pass.

by Charlie Scrabbles on Nov 25, 2008 8:19 PM EST up reply actions   2 recs

I dont think that

anyone that is serious about forecasting players would say Dye has a slim chance of outperforming Dunn in 09. The wOPA difference last year was just 7 basis points in Dunn’s favor/ 07 Adam greatly outperformed Dye and 06 Dye outperformed Dunn.
Dye has a bigger regression because of his age but may receive a slight uptick because of the park effect and switching to the NL.
Every action carries risk. The risk with Homer if you keep him and he repeats his 08 season- you basically have nothing. So unless the organization has some insight to solve his velocity problems and the alarming decreasing strike out rate- I think now would be the time to deal Homer.

by davidmac84 on Nov 25, 2008 8:51 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

im serious about forecasting players

and a 35 year old who has a lifetime OPS+ of 112 has a slim chance of putting up an OPS+ of 130 next year. that is not advanced player forecasting, that’s just common sense. Dye may get a few bonus points for switching to the NL, but US Cellular is a hitters park just like GABP. Bref has US Cellular with a park factor of 105 for hitters, while GABP is at 104. i think you are overestimating the difference between both the NL and AL in general and GABP and US Cellular in particular.

by Charlie Scrabbles on Nov 26, 2008 2:57 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I don't think that Dye would replace Dunn's #s

But I think that for a year he could HELP replace Dunn’s offense. I too believe that the success of the team is dependent on it’s youth. But I agree with davidmac84 "The risk with Homer if you keep him and he repeats his 08 season- you basically have nothing. " Hopefully the young player that will really help cement the Reds is Yonder. Give a year and 1/2 and he could be at 1st base with Joey V. in LF.

The best argument against democracy is a five-minute conversation with the average voter.

Sir Winston Churchill

by Madville on Nov 25, 2008 9:40 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Rec'd

For the last part. This team will not make the playoffs next year, even if we magically traded a bag of beads for Pujols. I hate that since we were on this very site 12 months ago talking about ’09 being “our year to make a run”.

I am squarely in the Trade Bailey Camp because he is the classic case of “Guy Who Figures It Out Somewhere Else” (GWFIOSE) and to be honest the lost velocity scares the hell out of me. We got extremely lucky by picking up our own GWFIOSE in EV and I’ll gladly take that in exchange for an established LF who hits the hell out of the ball.

That said, Dye is NOT that established LF who hits the hell out of the ball. I package Bailey to SEA for Beltre, move EdE to LF, and worry about Alonso if/when he gets here. But I’ve been drinking cheap beer, so there ya go.

"Aio, quantitas magna frumentorum est."

by jch24 on Nov 25, 2008 9:41 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Please note

My official stance is that someone in the Reds organization have fucked with either Homer’s head or mechanics in an effort to teach him the elusive changeup he is lacking.

"Aio, quantitas magna frumentorum est."

by jch24 on Nov 25, 2008 9:43 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Could be johnnypronto...

Hey Dusty...Are you sure you're OK? You might need an MRI.

by Paul Householder on Nov 26, 2008 2:19 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I'm not yet in the "Trade Bailey Camp"

but I’d much rather make a deal for Beltre than Dye. I’d move EdE to 1B and Votto to LF though.

by matchu522 on Nov 25, 2008 10:19 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Edwin's the better overall athlete though

I think he would fare better in LF. His main problem seems to be overthinking simple plays and throwing errors, both of which would be minimized by a move to LF.

I think Votto eventually ends up in LF to accommodate Alonso at 1B since Votto tried out LF in L’Ville. Edwin ends up being the odd man out and goes to the AL as a DH or the NL as a 1B.

"Aio, quantitas magna frumentorum est."

by jch24 on Nov 25, 2008 10:36 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Fair enough

But if Votto is going to end up in LF eventually, then go ahead and move him now. Let him get used to playing out there next season when the Reds aren’t likely to be contenders anyway. He can always move back in Yonder dosen’t pan out or is traded.

by matchu522 on Nov 25, 2008 10:57 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I have no problem with this plan

But what do we do with Edwin in the meantime? Play him at 1B?

"Aio, quantitas magna frumentorum est."

by jch24 on Nov 25, 2008 11:45 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Yes

I think he’d be fine at 1B. His glove has always been solid and he wouldn’t have to worry about throwing that often.

by matchu522 on Nov 26, 2008 8:55 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

OK Then Beltre - Lets get him:

Either of these guys (Dye or Beltre) would be more than just placeholders for a year. Homer Bailey may still pan out, but I’m not holding my breath.

I will however state at this time, late November 2008:
I believe with our starting rotation rotation Harang, Voltron, Bronson,Cueto (although I worry about Cueto) and Thopson/Rameriz/Micah O, Votto, BP, EdE, C-Dick , Bruce and Hannigan we have a strong young core.The Bench will sort itself out and the Bullpen at this point looks solid. The team needs a SS and a LF. Looks like Gonzo is the choice as of now for SS, So really we’re short a RH hitter with some pop who can play left – Beltre (or Dye) would be fine. And then there’s Hairston. Keppinger and Freel as well. Between the three of them they offer a lot off the bench or even in the starting line up for short periods.. With Dye or Beltre and a a SS who can play D and have an OBP of .275 and I would say the Reds will definitely be in the hunt in 2009. If the pitching holds up, there’s a more than outside chance at making the playoffs. This group doesn’t have Dunn but has stronger pitching. Doesn’t have Griffey but that’s not all that bad. Beltre ( or Dye) would certainly be more productive than Griffey or Stubbs and he’s an affordable known quantity.

Although if they don’t reconsider LLM…………..

The best argument against democracy is a five-minute conversation with the average voter.

Sir Winston Churchill

by Madville on Nov 25, 2008 11:35 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I worrry about Cueto as well

I love EV because when he gets in trouble, he buckles down and gets nasty. With Cueto it seems like the wheels fall the hell off and they fall off FAST. I love (LOVE) the potential with Cueto but I worry that he’s too easily rattled.

"Aio, quantitas magna frumentorum est."

by jch24 on Nov 25, 2008 11:49 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

that sometimes goes away with age

kinda like Madville’s liver

"It is a damn poor mind indeed which can’t think of at least two ways to spell any word."-Andy Jack

by justin007000 on Nov 26, 2008 12:34 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

The liver bone is connected to duodenim bone connected to the spleen bone

As you can see from this scientific photo I’ve become a skinhead from drinking too many mickey’s big mouth

The best argument against democracy is a five-minute conversation with the average voter.

Sir Winston Churchill

by Madville on Nov 26, 2008 1:03 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Please.

Unless they make two huge signings (of the Manny/Tiexiera/Sabathia type), the Reds have zero chance to contend next year, even for the wild card.

I think Harang will rebound, but Volquez will pitch like he did for the last 4 months of the season, which will even out. Arroyo is exactly what we’ve seen the past 2 years. Cueto might progress a bit, and the 5th starters should be better, but in all the rotation will be only slightly better.

The bullpen won’t be any better than they were last year.

Votto might progress a bit, but he really had a great year and I’d take another. BP is exactly how he played this year; same with EdE. Bruce should improve. Hannigan and whoever the backup is might improve over last year’s 4some of catchers, but probably not by much.

But, there is zero chance Dickerson has an OPS of 1.021 in a full season; given his minor league numbers the Reds should be happy if he’s league average. Keppinger isn’t a major-league player – except for one 140 AB stretch in ‘07, he’s never hit like one, and he doesn’t field well enough to make up for it (especially at SS). Freel neither hits nor runs very well anymore, when he’s even healthy enough to play; he’s also 33. Hairston, also 33, never slugged over .397 before last year when his SLG was .487; in fact, he was coming off consecutive seasons when he didn’t slug over .289. Hairston, like Freel, is also always injured. Finally, it’s anyone’s guess what AGon is going to play like – he’s had 99 PA since the ’07 ASG.

The bottom line? Even if they get Dye or Beltre the Reds are no better than they were last year, when they were outscored by 96 runs. To make the playoffs, they’d probably need 85 wins, which translates into scoring 96 more runs (for reference, that would be like replacing the pitcher’s spot with Votto; 800 RS would make the Reds one of the top 3 offenses in the league) than last year while allowing 40 fewer. Even if they allowed 50 fewer runs (which I think would be a tall order), they’d need to score 75 more (that is, DH EdE).

The Reds should be acquiring young talent for aging veterans, not the other way around.

Often wrong, never uncertain.

by sidnancy on Nov 26, 2008 9:54 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I'm just an overly optimistic fan, I guess

Without Co-Pat in the lead off spot and not having Jeff Keppinger in the line up daily, will be positive moves. Bruce, Votto, C-Dick all seem capable of playing well. Dickerson is enigmatic, he has some pop in his bat and he can play centerfield very nicely. SS is a big problem. Will Hannigan develop at his old age? Yes there’s lots of questions…but waiting and doing nothing until the trade deadline guarantees a lame season. Going for more young untried talent also seems to push any and all hope for 2009 to at least 2010. Why not start with Dye…maybe this team won’t be play-off contenders but at least they’ll be significantly more competitive with the aforementioned changes. I don’t worry about Harang, Bronson or Wagon…I do have concerns about Cueto BUT he too now has a year under his belt…

I remain a Jerry Jr. fan despite his ability to get hurt. He and Kepp off the bench, along with Freel makes for an improved bench.

THe biggest drag on this team for 2009 is the field manager. Dusty will really have to stretch to be able to work with and develop the young players he has, don’t give him any more.

The best argument against democracy is a five-minute conversation with the average voter.

Sir Winston Churchill

by Madville on Nov 26, 2008 11:57 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I'll tell you why
Why not start with Dye

Because if Jermaine Dye is the answer, you’re asking the wrong question.

Throwing him in LF does nothing but spend money in ‘09 – he doesn’t make the team much better than it would be without him, and you’d have to give up some level of talent for him (the Mets reportedly walked away because they thought the Sox were asking for too much). Further, if Cinci’s on his list of teams he can’t be traded to, it would probably mean picking up his ‘10 option, and he certainly won’t be an asset then.

Trading for Beltre makes much more sense – you’ll spend about as much money, the trade demand would be about the same, but he’d improve the team much more (Beltre at 3B and EdE in LF >>>EdE at 3B and Dye in LF). Heck, I’d rather they signed Juan Rivera – he’d cost less and is likely to hit as well as Dye (and would probably sign a 1 year contract to reestablish his value).

Often wrong, never uncertain.

by sidnancy on Nov 26, 2008 4:20 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

OK Then Beltre - Lets get him:

We just need a RH clobberer to help a pretty anemic offense. It is at most a one to year deal until we see how Yonder and EdE (for my money) develop.

The best argument against democracy is a five-minute conversation with the average voter.

Sir Winston Churchill

by Madville on Nov 26, 2008 8:05 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

If the Sox initiated the trade talks

wouldn’t the Reds be able to start with someone of a lower potential in their proposal (Thompson or Maloney)?

Then again, we all know how much ol’ Kenny Williams loves power arms.

"Yes, and it's so important in this sport that the athletes be able to train in the same location." -Cynthia Potter, NBC Synchronized Diving Analyst

by 3 Fast 3 Furious on Nov 25, 2008 4:13 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

I don't like it

Not for Bailey and another player. That’s too much, IMO. Dye is reaching the age where players often fall off a cliff.

All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?

by BubbaFan on Nov 25, 2008 5:24 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

I don't like it

Dye was a solid player in his prime, but he was never a superstar. Homer could still be a superstar. I am not against trading Homer, but I don’t think it is nescasity, and I don’t want to do it for a play on the wrong side of 30, much less 35.

"It is a damn poor mind indeed which can’t think of at least two ways to spell any word."-Andy Jack

by justin007000 on Nov 25, 2008 10:38 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

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