I hadn't looked at the Reds 40-man roster in a while, so I decided to check it out. Did you know there are only 32 players currently on the 40-man roster? (Reds.com lists 33, but I don't believe Andy Phillips belongs on there) There's a lot of space to fill.
Some of that will be with players that need to be protected from the Rule 5 draft. Based on this list from Shawn back in October, I'd guess that Carlos Fisher will definitely be protected, and possibly Sean Henry, Shaun Cumberland, and Sam Lecure. I don't believe they'll protect more than two players though because they have too many holes on the big league roster to fill.
I think all of these guys from the 40-man are pretty much locks to make the team in Spring:
That leaves 8 open roster spots: SP, 3 RP, 2 OF, C, IF
The last starting pitcher spot will likely be filled from the 40-man roster, specifically from Owings, Bailey, or Thompson. We may see bullpen help from Herrera, Masset, Fisher, one of the losers from the SP chase or, gulp, Majewski or Belisle. I would guess though that Majewski and Belisle will not be offered arbitration and therefore will be released, freeing up 2 more spots on the 40-man roster.
On the offensive side, there isn't a lot of help coming from the 40-man. Adam Rosales, Wilkin Castillo, and Danny Richar all look like backups, and Hopper is the only remaining OF on the the 40-man roster. I would say that Drew Stubbs and Danny Dorn are the only other outfielders in the organization that would have a shot at making the roster out of the spring, but both are unlikely.
So the Reds have a lot of work that needs to be done, but at least they have a lot of space to work in. By my estimate, they are currently only on the hook for around $49.5 million in signed contracts, with EdE being the only likely arbitration case they'll face. Throw in another $4-6 million to cover the pre-arb players, and it really looks to me like the Reds have some money to spend - at least $25-30 million, I would think.
What do you think, can they build a winner with the money they have left to spend?