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Monday Linkage: The Wagon Needs to Strike First

Things to ponder while you ponder things:

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Matt York/AP

  • We all know that Edinson Volquez needs to work on his control a bit.  He had the 7th highest walks per 9 IP among qualified pitchers last season.  More importantly though, he may want to improve on throwing first pitch strikes.  He had the second lowest rate for first pitch strikes in baseball last season, behind only Barry Zito (for qualified starters) at 52.6%.  How big of a difference can strike one make?  Batters hit .268/.408/.414 against Volquez last year after a 1-0 count.  When the count starts out 0-1, they hit just .195/.253/.297.
  • John Erardi had a fine article this weekend about the Latin pipeline for the Big Red Machine.  As Erardi points out, it's relevant to look at that link since the Reds are starting to make significant moves in Latin America once again.  This may be the most important development for the future of the franchise that we've seen.  Sure would be nice if Johnny Almaraz was still involved though.
  • I've been pushing defensive improvement a lot this off-season, mainly because I think it's a cheap way for the Reds to improve.  When it comes to evaluating defense, there isn't one perfect system.  Each has it's flaws and shortcomings, but most of them contribute to our knowledge on the subject.   As much as I can, I try to not leave my evaluation to just one system - though that can be difficult since they are all released at different times during the season.  My point in all this babble is that we've got more data to look at as Baseball Musings has released his Probablistic Model of Range numbers for 2008.  Long story short, it doesn't look good for the Reds.  Beyond the Boxscore has converted most of the positions to run values and the Reds are second-to-last at -29 runs.  The good news is that there is room for improvement.
  • We haven't heard much about the Reds in terms of shoring up the bullpen this off-season, but I came across a couple of names that interested me.  First, Bob Howry had a bad year last year, but I think the reason might because he stopped throwing his fastball in favor of his slider.  Given his down year in 2008, he could be had for a one-year deal or a reasonably cheap two-year deal.  The other pitcher is Will Ohman.  Ohman is definitely a LOOGY, so I wouldn't sign him for more than $2.5 million, but the guy shuts down left-handers (.197/.285/.318).  Given that Bill Bray is the only lefty in the pen right now with any real experience, I think Ohman is definitely worth a shot.
  • I've recently added 3 Reds blogs to our blogroll and I figured I should bring attention to them.  It looks like they've all been around for some time, but for some reason I just found them.  RedLegs Baseball has been around since May of 2007, but for some reason I cared not.  He recently put up a cool video of Neftali Soto hitting the ball far.  I think I may have linked to Dunn and Dunner before, but nothing formal.  And lastly, there is OMGReds, who have a super-rad Photo Blog to go along with their site, including pictures from this weekend's Big Red Machine Reunion.  I'm terrible about linking to work from other blogs, so please click the links in the blogroll often to keep up with their work.  And if there is any Reds site out there that I'm missing, drop me a line or put it in the comments and I'll add it.

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Another link

Many of you might have seen these around town already, but since I don’t live in Cincinnati, watching the Bengals game yesterday was my first opportunity to see the billboards that had been purchased by Who Dey Revolution. It is one of the steps in their Project Mayhem movement to persuade Bengals owner Mike Brown to hire a General Manager. Someone who knows football and can help bring an end to the embarrassment that the Bengals have been for the better part of the last two decades.

It’s a great grassroots movement by a fan base that has been abused for too long. They’re accepting donations to keep the billboards up for another month, and are only about $300 from their goal. I just tossed them a couple bucks. If you haven’t been to their site, check it out. It’s one of the best Bengals sites on the web.

by Brendanukkah on Nov 17, 2008 11:55 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Ohman would be a good addition

Dusty could then forget that Bray is left handed and just use him as the 7th inning guy. Plus Bray couldn’t be a loggy anyway, with being too lazy to look up the stats I feel like Bray hare more success against right handed hitters than left handed hitters.

"It is a damn poor mind indeed which can’t think of at least two ways to spell any word."-Andy Jack

by justin007000 on Nov 17, 2008 1:08 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Bray's 2008 Splits

are actually kind of interesting: http://www.baseball-reference.com/pi/psplit.cgi?n1=braybi01&year=2008

vs. RH: .274 .349 .451
vs. LH: .260 .360 .384

He keeps right-handers off base at a slightly higher rate, but that difference in slugging is significant.

Bray also faced more right-handed hitters this season than left-handed hitters by a substantial margin.

So it’s possible that Dusty recognizes Bray as a pitcher who can face batters on both sides of the plate, but it’s also possible that he faced a number of those right-handed hitters while performing in long-relief.

What a picture of domestic tranquility... Hemlock on the hearth and my wife feeding the piranha.

by Man Mountain on Nov 17, 2008 3:11 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

It's not that significant

57% of the batters faced by Reds pitching were RH. For Bray it was 60%. I think that just means that he wasn’t used in a strict LOOGY role. However, once rosters expanded, he became much more of a LOOGY, including 7 straight appearances where he only faced on batter (strangely one instance was the right-handed hitting Bill Hall). But there are several times (hard to count) where the first batter he faced in an appearance was right-handed. I don’t remember any strict rule by Dusty on how he used Bray.

I don’t know what I’m arguing. Just that Bray isn’t a LOOGY in the same sense as Ohman, I guess.

Why have I been blogging for so long? It's certainly not because of the paycheck. Because I could be making a lot more money as a doctor or a professional athlete.

by Slyde on Nov 17, 2008 3:26 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Ben Davis was singed to pitch

via fay he apparently “pitched a some” last year playing independent baseball.

"It is a damn poor mind indeed which can’t think of at least two ways to spell any word."-Andy Jack

by justin007000 on Nov 17, 2008 1:15 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

I just saw that Bobby Howry is a Type-A free agent

Would that cost the Reds their 2nd round pick?

Why have I been blogging for so long? It's certainly not because of the paycheck. Because I could be making a lot more money as a doctor or a professional athlete.

by Slyde on Nov 17, 2008 3:47 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

i doubt it

i dont think the Cubs are going to offer arbitration, so if they wait a few weeks to sign him then it wont matter.

by Charlie Scrabbles on Nov 17, 2008 5:31 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

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