What if the Reds went with youth in 2009?
by Slyde on Nov 11, 2008 12:41 PM EST
in Off-season
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I was thinking this morning about the possibility that the Reds may remain inactive during the off-season. My next thought was that maybe then they should go with a full-on youth movement and let the players for 2010 - at least those that have played in Double-A or higher - play and get them some experience so that they are rolling when 2010 comes along. Who would those players be?
Drew Stubbs - he's probably the only real prospect in Triple-A, at least on offense. Shaun Cumberland put up decent numbers, but I think he looks more like a 4th outfielder than an everyday starter. A case could be made that Stubbs should start in CF even if the Reds don't go the youth route in 2009. His defense should solidify the Reds up the middle and I believe that eventually he'll post an OBP in the .350-.360 range. He probably could use some refinement though. Chance of playing in Cincinnati in 2009: Very good.
Daniel Dorn - he's a left-handed power-hitter who played most the season in Chattanooga last year. I doubt he'd make the leap over Stubbs, and given that he's left-handed I don't see him starting in front of Dickerson. Chance of playing in Cincinnati in 2009: Slim.
Sean Henry/Chris Heisey - both of these guys are right-handed corner outfielders who need to develop some more power if they are going to play in the Majors. They both get on base well and Heisey has some decent speed. Neither player is ready to sniff starting in the Majors. Chance of playing in Cincinnati in 2009: Tiny.
Chris Valaika - Outside of his first 200 PAs in Sarasota, his bat has been good all throughout the minors. His defense was questionable at shortstop, but Doug has been noticing some chatter indicating that he might be improving enough there to stick. If his defense is truly improved, I honestly wouldn't be surprised to see him break camp with the Reds and start at shortstop on Opening Day - especially if Alex Gonzalez continues to be unhealthy. If the Reds decide to make it look like they are playing for 2009 though, Valaika will probably start the year in Louisville. Chance of playing in Cincinnati in 2009: Good.
Justin Turner - By all accounts, Turner's defense at 2B is very good and his bat has been solid throughout the minors. With Brandon Phillips holding on to 2B right now, it's doubtful that Turner will see any time in 2009 with the big club, but don't be surprised if he makes the jump if BP goes down with an injury. Chance of playing in Cincinnati in 2009: Doubtful.
What do you think? Any of these guys going to make the team out of Spring Training?
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I'm surprised you're that doubtful that Dorn'll make the jump
He can hit righties. True, I see him as part of a trade package, but assuming he won’t get traded, and assuming CDick doesn’t keep up his 1.000 OPS pace, I could see him getting some time. Better than Taveras, right?
...because there's already someone posing as Jacob Brumfield
i think dorn will get time in september
but that doesnt really count. there’s just no room really for guys like him in the majors. especially if we shift things around a bit and get a real hitter in left (Edwin, Alonso, Votto).
I would just prefer the Reds break camp with Stubbs in center, because he’s far an away the best option there. I don’t like the idea of messing around with other, less attractive options, and Stubbs hit well when he hit Louisville last year. I say let him jump in headfirst and learn to hit these major league guys. I know it sounds weird, but his bat has been steadily improving as he moves up, because pitchers are spending more time around the plate. Just get him up here so we know what the outfield will look like in the coming years.
As for Valaika, he seems to struggle after every call-up so I see him as a September call-up at best, and even then I doubt he’ll do much. Down the road I can see him being a really solid middle-infield bat, but not in 2009. Hope I’m wrong about him, though. He can be quite thrilling.
What do you mean, "blank slate"?
I can't believe I saw this as Demography.
I’ve been working too much lately…
This place is like a sexy preschool.
YES!!!
I thought we should have done this last season, especially when it was evident in June we were not going to compete. There is enough of a core there to carry the youngsters through. I want to see Stubbs in centerfield on Opening Day.
Alonso wont play left
think Sean Casey. he’ll be just fine at 1B, but anywhere else his big fat slowness will be too evident.
by Charlie Scrabbles on Nov 11, 2008 2:10 PM EST up reply actions
No way
Alonso has never played LF before (someone correct me if I’m wrong there). Votto played some LF in L’Ville, so he would be the one to move. I doubt they do that though, see “Phillips, Brandon” for their line of thinking on that one. Also, I doubt we’ll see Alonso at all this year. They’ll wanna make sure he can handle pro pitching at least up to AA before even considering a callup.
"Aio, quantitas magna frumentorum est."
I dunno
Really. I have no idea.
The little I know about these guys, it seems Stubbs has the best chance to make the team, and is the only one likely to see any MLB action this year. I’m not convinced his bat is quite ready yet, and I’d sure like him to become more than another CoPat.
If they went youth movement, they could go in a couple of directions:
*Complete reload. Trade GG winning, former 30/30 hitting, all-around good guy BP. Trade Arroyo. Trade Harang at the deadline. This would cause a disaster in ’09 and probably write-off ’10 also.
*See what you have for ‘10. That means no AGon; stop negotiations with Weathers, Lincoln, and Hairston. Listen to what teams offer for Arroyo and BP, but don’t necessarily try to get rid of them. Hope that the young guys continue to improve Harang bounces back. Mostly, hope that you’re thisclose and that one FA that’ll put you over the top will be available next off-season.
The thing is, there’s already lots of youth on the team. It looks like no fewer than 4 (and maybe 5) starting position players and 3 starting pitchers will be pre-arb in ’09, and if the season started today the oldest starting position player would be…29 year old Jeff Keppinger at SS. In other words, the youth movement has already started.
Often wrong, never uncertain.
Here is what I see
The only guys I feel with legit shots to break camp with the Reds from the ‘youth’ movement are pitchers. Carlos Fisher, Josh Roenicke and someone from the group of Bailey, Thompson, Maloney or Ramirez. The Reds need a 5th starter still and if Owings doesn’t pitch well and some of those starters do, they have to make the rotation. Roenicke is a tad behind Fisher for me though.
I just don’t see the Reds going with any ‘youth’ from the farm outside of Dickerson or Hanigan to be a starter to open the season. The only spot really open left and I don’t see them having both Dickerson and Stubbs in the same outfield off the bat unless its in Louisville.
I do feel we will see plenty of call ups throughout the year though from Valaika, Stubbs, Dorn and Alonso mixed in with some of the pitchers listed above.
Yeah
In a rush to post this before a meeting I had, I forgot pitching, but outside of a 5th starter, I don’t think the Reds will be significantly younger in the rotation. Hopefully the bullpen will get younger though, and I think Roenicke, Herrera, and Fisher all have a good shot out of camp. I wouldn’t be surprised if Tyler Pelland impressed in camp and made the team too.
"You never want to give up a 7-0 lead, in your rival's ballpark, that would put them in first place. Never want to do that." - Ron Darling
Reds minor leaguers in 2009/10
For the first time in a long time, I’m optimistic about the next set of Reds players coming up through the system. For starters, there are actually some solid players in AA/AAA, not a laundry list of maybes in A-ball. Second, the prospects coming up are hitters, and their MLB performance is more projectable. In years past, the Reds MLB offense has been pretty good, the pitching has been horrific, and the message of “just wait for the minor league prospects” were pinned on names like Howington and Gruler, etc, etc.
Now the Reds have the problem of already having 4 good starters penciled into the rotation. 4-5 guys pitching for the 5th spot and none of them are 30+ yr old never wases. They have youth coming up to support the back-end of the bullpen. Some of the guys vying for the 5th spot could also move to his role (yes Thompson, I’m looking at you.)
Whether they play in 2009 or not, the upper minors boasts Stubbs, Dorn & Henry to go with Bruce and Dickerson in the outfield. Valaika, Frazier, and Francisco are all possible starters in the infield. And guys like Alonso and Soto headlining the next wave of prospects in A+ ball.
I mean, I'm happy about the starters too
but only Volquez had an ERA+ better than 100, right? There’s still a lot of room for improvement there. Excitement too, but improvement.
...because there's already someone posing as Jacob Brumfield
Volquez shut out
he didnt get a single vote for the Cy Young. im not sure there is a huge complaint, but the Dumpster getting 4 third place votes does stick in the craw a bit. oh well. go get ’em next year.
by Charlie Scrabbles on Nov 11, 2008 2:34 PM EST reply actions
when the voters only have 3 votes
it’s not a big deal. Lincecum, Webb, Santana, and CC all had arguments to be above EV. Woulda been nice to see him get a vote, but I’m not upset. He was the highest rated non-rookie in the ROY voting!
"You never want to give up a 7-0 lead, in your rival's ballpark, that would put them in first place. Never want to do that." - Ron Darling
Wow, that's pretty surprising
I mean, if CC Sabathia can get that many votes for half a season in the NL, then Edinson’s first half merited some votes too. Obviously I wasn’t expecting him to win, but it would have been nice to have a little recognition.
Oh, and Lincecum (rightly) winning makes me want to have Drew Stubbs up here to start the season in ‘09. I’ll grab him by the collar and in my best Tom-Hanks-on-the-bridge-at-the-end-of-“Saving-Private-Ryan” growl, tell him to, “Earn…. this.”
by Brendanukkah on Nov 11, 2008 2:41 PM EST up reply actions
Dusty looks to get his wish
a couple of Drano players could be had from the Rockies. (via traderumors). Taveras is a butt. he’s Corey Patterson without the power. Torrealba is another sub-.300 OBP Dusty special. i had hopes that perhaps Jocko would take the reigns this year and start steering us in the right direction, but this would be awful. at least Dusty wouldnt be able to complain that they arent his guys.
by Charlie Scrabbles on Nov 11, 2008 2:42 PM EST reply actions
The Reds playoff chances died today. Or yesterday maybe, I don’t know. I got a telegram from the home: ‘Taveras, Torrealba acquired. Failure tomorrow. Faithfully yours.’ That doesn’t mean anything. Maybe it was yesterday.
"You never want to give up a 7-0 lead, in your rival's ballpark, that would put them in first place. Never want to do that." - Ron Darling
by Slyde on Nov 11, 2008 3:02 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Where the hell do you think you are mister, LGT?
Don’t make me hate you.
"Aio, quantitas magna frumentorum est."
“Subject lines are for pussies”
-Albert Camus
"You never want to give up a 7-0 lead, in your rival's ballpark, that would put them in first place. Never want to do that." - Ron Darling
“What a logocentrist might posit as the ‘subject’ of a ‘post’ is actually just web of myriad signs that constantly defer meaning, or, more properly, their intent to mean, even as they strive vainly to affirm what we might call a metaphysics of presence.This undeniable gap existing at the center of any hermeneutics devastates what is otherwise thought to be an undelying structure of discourse. Thus, one can not use the ’subject line” because, simply, no subject line can possibly exist."
-Ryan Freel
What a picture of domestic tranquility... Hemlock on the hearth and my wife feeding the piranha.
by Man Mountain on Nov 11, 2008 5:07 PM EST up reply actions
sure it wasn’t farny?
"It is a damn poor mind indeed which can’t think of at least two ways to spell any word."-Andy Jack
by justin007000 on Nov 11, 2008 5:12 PM EST up reply actions
ceci n'est pas un texte
What a picture of domestic tranquility... Hemlock on the hearth and my wife feeding the piranha.
by Man Mountain on Nov 11, 2008 9:19 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Holliday was not purely a creation of Coors Field
Garrett Atkins (Home: .337/.394/.527; Road: .260/.328/.424) is. Oh, and he may be as bad as EdE defensively.
"You never want to give up a 7-0 lead, in your rival's ballpark, that would put them in first place. Never want to do that." - Ron Darling
Oh and there is this
Willy Taveras “slugged” .296 last season. Light-hitting doesn’t even begin to describe him. Dude has over 2100 career plate appearances and has 60 career doubles. The single season record for doubles is 67.
"You never want to give up a 7-0 lead, in your rival's ballpark, that would put them in first place. Never want to do that." - Ron Darling
I am for the youth movement
I want Stubbs in CF, Dickerson in LF, and Bruce in RF. I want to see the bullpen composed of guys like Roniecke. I don’t understand why this didn’t happen last year. The Reds probably could got a marginal prospect for Lincoln at the deadline, same with Weathers and Affeldt. A bullpen of Coco, Burton, Bray, Roniecke, and some out of the group of Fisher, Pellend, Thompson, Rameriz, Bailey doesn’t sound too bad, and they got the big three in Bray-Burton-Coco, to get through the 7th, 8th, and 9th innings.
I want to keep EdE at third. I still think he can improve his defense. I’d trade Phillips while his value is high, with all the infielders coming up, we could get somethign good for Phillips and in the long term not lose that much at second base.
I want the Reds to leave Bailey on the MLB roster through hell and high water. Put him in the bullpen and let him gain some big league experiance there.
"It is a damn poor mind indeed which can’t think of at least two ways to spell any word."-Andy Jack
Justin it appears for all your good intent, you also want to lose a lot of games.
Trading Phillips (the only RH hitter with sock) brings the team down to about -1 run a game. We need a couple of older experienced bigger name guys with some punch (you know like Dunn and Griffey Jr.) or an up and coming RBI phenom (like Josh Hamilton) cause what you’re describing doesn’t look like a big scoring team. Votto and Bruce and…………maybe EdE.
The best argument against democracy is a five-minute conversation with the average voter.
Sir Winston Churchill
The only RH hitter with sock?
Are you sure about that?
"You never want to give up a 7-0 lead, in your rival's ballpark, that would put them in first place. Never want to do that." - Ron Darling
I think Phillips offense is overrated.
OPS+ since he came to Cincinnati
2006-88
2007-105
2008-92
Trading Phillips might hurt 2009, but with Phillips the Reds are probably headed towards a 72-77 win season anyway. Must GM’s are going to see Phillips puts up decent averages, (maybe .261 is a stretch for decent), can hit 20-30 homeruns, and put up 80 RBIs. Sounds like a George Grande dream boat. Plus he just won the Gold Glove, so that only increases his trade value. With Varikia, Francisco, and other guy in double A, they can help in 2010. Plus I think the Reds could get a decent prospect for Phillips.
"It is a damn poor mind indeed which can’t think of at least two ways to spell any word."-Andy Jack
by justin007000 on Nov 11, 2008 9:31 PM EST up reply actions
just a decent prospect?
i would imagine a guy like him could net a primo top 25 prospect and some. from the right team, of course. unfortunately, he’s really the only player we have up the middle who can reliably play good D. i like Dickerson and Stubbs in center, but they aint reliable just yet.
by Charlie Scrabbles on Nov 11, 2008 9:41 PM EST up reply actions
Here is a glimpse of some of the guys.
Lesson for on camera people. Stand up straight and don’t talk with a tilted head.
and keep your lower lip from quivering
Also tell Sloan I said, “What up.”
by Red Menace on Nov 12, 2008 1:07 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
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