He gives us a leadoff hitter which we badly need. He improves our D up the middle which we badly need (assuming that BP can handle the move to SS – a big IF, I know). It gives us a lineup that looks like this:

Roberts
Phillips
Bruce
Votto
EdE
Dickerson
??
Hanigan
Pitcher

That is not a World Series winning lineup, but its closer to it than we had last year. If the Reds are going to make the post-season in the next few years, it will be behind our pitching. I like our Top4 starters and am willing to bet on them. We do need to hope some young guys step up to take care of the bullpen. We just need our offense to score enough to win games. We don’t need to score 7-8 runs a game anymore to win. Roberts at the top of the order should help us manufacture more runs.

How to get Roberts? I would be willing to part with Homer Bailey. I think I’ve lost faith in him getting it done in a Reds uniform. But is he an attractive prospect ? I would still think so. How high is his trade value? I think he’s our number one bait to getting one of our holes in the field filled.

This is a move I could get behind.

1. He gets on base alot – .372 OBP over the past 4 seasons.
2. He plays solid defense.
3. He’s stolen 226 bases at a 79% clip.

I would make the same arguement about the current roster that I did arguing for Ellis: Moving BP to SS and bringing in a solid defensive 2B helps the defense alot. Keeping AGon isn’t the worst move – he can reasonably sub at 3B or SS, and if a 2B is needed BP can slyde back over there. There’s no need to trade/dump/release him.

The Cubs apparently (according to the Baltimore Sun, via MBLTR) (the original article doesn’t appear to be available any more) offered Donnie Veal (a 23 year old pitcher who isn’t very good), Sean Gallagher (a 22 year old who’s mirroring Homer Bailey (MiLB success, MLB struggles) so far), and Ronny Cedeno (a no-hit middle infielder); Andy McPhail said “no thanks”.

Ah, but Roberts is a whole year closer to free agency; the O’s might not be so flippant now. Would a package including one of Homer/Thompson/Maloney/Ramirez, either Cozart/Rosales, and Dorn get it done? And if given the chance to negotiate an extension, I’d throw in a 2nd pitcher from the above list. As a bonus for the Reds, AGon would be off the books when the extension money kicks in.

As for the alternatives:
Hudson – likely to be much more expensive for not as good of a player, and is coming off an injury.
Furcal – I’d have no problem signing him, but every indication is he’s staying in LA.
Hairston – Sorry, Cherry, but I’m guessing creating twice as many runs per 27 outs as your career average, at age 32, is something of an outlier. You also suck defensively. In hindsight, I can’t believe you weren’t traded at the deadline this year.
Eckstein, Kennedy – The “scrappy white guy” role is already filled unless we dump Freel on someone.

If I remember, when the Reds were briefly in on the Erik Bedard sweepstakes, the Orioles kept demanding the moon, with a package that started with Jay Bruce. Now, Brian Roberts isn’t an ace pitcher, but he is an All-Star second baseman. Would it be reasonable to assume that the Orioles might again demand an unreasonable haul for him?

I like Roberts. I also liked Beltre. It’s just very clear that our infield needs to be upgraded pretty substantially. And our outfield. And Hanigan’s not making any All-Star team.

and I sit down with Roberts immediately to sign him to an extension.

I expect the Orioles to ask for Cueto and/or Votto up front. They’re pretty set in the outfield with Adam Jones and Nick Markakis, who they’re about to sign to an extension. Their pitching is fairly young, but, outside of Jeremy Guthrie, it kind of sucks.

The most important aspect of this trade, however, is that the O’s are old around the infield and the Reds look to have great depth in infield hitters moving along in the system. That’s where trading with the Reds makes sense for them.

So, I counter with Thompson and then tell the O’s they can have the pick of any two Reds infield prospects excluding Frazier and Soto. So Valaika/Francisco/Cozart/Rosales/Turner are all on the table.

I still think Bailey is going to be a successful major league pitcher, but I’d be willing to include him in this trade in place of Thompson. If they have any interest in Ramirez and/or Maloney all the better. Thinking about it a little more, if they want Homer, I hedge a little on which of the infielders I offer.

For the Reds not only do you have a legitimate on base threat in Brian Roberts, but you have a very marketable player to the Reds fan base…a player who is actually worth their admiration. That would make a nice change.

I suppose I should worry about the Reds putting money and years into a player on the wrong side of 30, but I think Roberts will continue to be solid well into his 30s.

His .516 OPS against the Reds is the second lowest against any team for Roberts (behind STL – .333).

I changed my mind. Anyone who can only go 2/15 against someone we’re going to play 15 times a year!

developing a serious Alongso?

I dont know what his Defense is like, but I figure a Furcal-Phillips combo would be sick right? And it would keep BP at 2b, where he doesn’t seem to particularly want to move from. And he’s an FA so we wouldn’t have to give up prospects.

His career OBP is only .020 below Roberts, and I think the added D may be about even (plus, then prospects can go to get Beltre).

Defense and pitching in ‘09, y’all.

The last we heard, he loved LA and LA loved him, and both wanted a return.

and i would be willing to give them Bailey+Francisco+mid-level dude to do it, hinging on our ability to sign Roberts to a LTC. i like the idea of trading Francisco this winter. he strikes me as the kind of guy who could be overrated by some people. he has monster power but no strikezone judgment. im very weary of his bust potential. it may be wise to sell high on his prospect status.

Bubba Crosby’s former roommate.

I vote yes, if only to get him out of the AL East. ;-)

But he’s reportedly the owner’s favorite. It’s probably going to take a lot to pry him away.

He has a big heart, he’s a winner, and he’s fairly consistent. I am a big fan of his, and he would provide some veteran leadership much needed by this young team.

The Reds aren’t going to win the World Series next year even if he is the starting 2nd baseman.

I think Roberts would cost too much in the way of prospects. Also, I don’t think locking up a 30 year old to a 5 year contract is such a good idea.

If the Reds only needed 1-2 more players to win it all, I’d make the trade in a heart beat.

I would like him very much, thank you. But I don’t think Walt will go there. My guess is that Walt will keep Phillips at 2nd and either give Gonzo a chance or push for Hairston at SS. I think Walt is more interested in getting a right handed power hitter for LF a la Holliday. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Votto working out at 3b as Yonder gets closer. Or Yonder at 3b in the minors.