Who would you trade to get Adrian Beltre?

by Slyde on Oct 27, 2008 8:00 AM EDT in Trade Ideas Comment 59 comments

Charles Rex Arbogast/AP

Adrian Beltre

Thirdbaseman
Born: April 7, 1979
Bats: R Throws: R
Contract Status: 2009 - $12 million, free agent after 2009

Year	PA	HR	RBI	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	RAR	FRAR	TtlVal
2006	681	25	89	11	.268	.328	.465	25.6	14.5	41.0
2007	639	26	99	14	.276	.319	.482	26.7	3.4	30.9
2008	612	25	77	8	.266	.327	.457	23.8	23.7	48.3

There were murmurs in September that Adrian Beltre does not want to play for a team in rebuilding mode, which might be the case with the Mariners in 2009. Whether or not he is truly available is unclear, but that's never stopped us from speculating before.

Positives: As you can see, he's an excellent defensive 3B - one of the top 2 or 3 in the league. Bringing him in could gain the Reds as much as 40 runs on defense alone at 3B. He's got some pop from the right side and could potentially slug .500 in GABP. His one year contract is low risk for the Reds, even if it seems like a large amount of money to spend. Unless the Reds re-sign him, he won't likely block the young 3B prospects the Reds have in the minors.

Negatives: On a team already looking like they'll struggle to get on base, Beltre isn't going to help. Trading for Beltre may cost the Reds a good prospect or two, and since the Reds will need help beyond Beltre, losing prospects for a one-year rental may not be worth the risk. I don't know much about Beltre's personality, but for some reason I seem to remember him being somewhat surly (correct me if I'm wrong, please).

Possible Alternatives: Mark Teahan (KC), Joe Crede (Free Agent), Casey Blake (Free Agent), sticking with EdE.

Fun Fact: The last time Beltre was playing for a contract, he batted .334/.388/.629 for the Dodgers and hit 48 home runs while finishing 2nd in the MVP race.

Who would you be willing to give up to acquire Beltre? Would you want the deal to include a contract extension right off the bat? If you think he's worth acquiring, try to make your deal suggestions realistic from the Mariners perspective (i.e. don't give them somebody to replace Ichiro since he's not likely to go anywhere soon). If you don't think he's worth acquiring, is it because you think the Reds are set at 3B or because you don't particularly want Beltre?

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Quick question

I know you got those numbers from Justin’s site, but where? I only see 2008 “preliminary” data.

Often wrong, never uncertain.

by sidnancy on Oct 27, 2008 9:15 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I have his spreadsheets

and downloaded the 2006 and 2007 data myself. The 2008 data does not have the updated park factors and such – I should probably update that.

"You never want to give up a 7-0 lead, in your rival's ballpark, that would put them in first place. Never want to do that." - Ron Darling

by Slyde on Oct 27, 2008 9:25 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

when you like FRAR, don't you mean FRAA?

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Oct 28, 2008 3:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

when you LIST FRAR, don't you mean FRAA?

and does that number include his position adjustment? i’m assuming yes…

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Oct 28, 2008 3:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Aren't FRAR and FRAA the same thing?

Isn’t replacement level the same thing as average on defense?

The position adjustment is in the total value number but not FRAR. That’s how Justin lists it in his spreadsheets.

"You never want to give up a 7-0 lead, in your rival's ballpark, that would put them in first place. Never want to do that." - Ron Darling

by Slyde on Oct 28, 2008 3:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

yes, they're the same on defense -- i get it

some people get that wrong, though: BPro uses both FRAR and FRAA, though, with the baseline for FRAR about 20 runs below FRAA. and then they use FRAR instead of FRAA for WARP, which sets the overall replacement-level baseline REALLY low.

to me, talking about average fielding is more intuitive, but it’s right either way. good call.

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Oct 29, 2008 3:37 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I prefer to stick to replacement level just because it's the same language as what we use with hitters

I probably could have used something other than FRAR in the table, but I didn’t want a long header on the column.

"You never want to give up a 7-0 lead, in your rival's ballpark, that would put them in first place. Never want to do that." - Ron Darling

by Slyde on Oct 29, 2008 4:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I should add some context here

First of all, my reasoning behind these posts this week is this. I’m going to assume that the Reds will try to put a competitive team on the field in 2009. I also assume that this means that the Reds will have to make moves to fill holes in at least 2 of these positions – MIF, OF, C – and then shift players around to compensate. The players we look at this week will based on this assumption. I’m looking for how desirable you think a certain player is for 2009. Is he worth sacrificing a big time prospect? Can the Reds make a run at 2009 without gutting the system? And what do you think are the biggest needs?

As for Beltre, his total value numbers would have made him the most valuable everyday player for the Reds in 2006 and 2008 and he would have been 3rd behind BP and Dunn in 2007. So adding Beltre wouldn’t just be a serious upgrade at 3B, he would be a serious upgrade to the team overall.

"You never want to give up a 7-0 lead, in your rival's ballpark, that would put them in first place. Never want to do that." - Ron Darling

by Slyde on Oct 27, 2008 9:46 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Which is why I ask

As for Beltre, his total value numbers would have made him the most valuable everyday player for the Reds in 2006 and 2008 and he would have been 3rd behind BP and Dunn in 2007.

The preliminary numbers for ‘08 show Beltre as not just the best defensive 3B (FRAR+Position Adjustment) by too wide of a margin (10 runs, or the difference between #2 Chipper Jones and #18 Bill Hall), but the best defensive player overall. Given his ’06 and ’07 FRAR, I don’t buy it.

Getting a realistic value of his fielding is important. Casey Blake, who by OPS+ is a marginally better hitter over the past 3 years, is a free agent, so he wouldn’t cost any prospects and I’d think will garner significantly less than $12M/yr.

Often wrong, never uncertain.

by sidnancy on Oct 27, 2008 10:31 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

One season of defensive data is rarely enough to tell the whole picture

Which is why I put 3 years. I’d say he’s more likely in the 10-15 FRAR range, but he had a very good year defensively this season, similar to how players might have an exceptionally good offensive season. However, I think it’s safe to say that Beltre’s total value lies in the 30+ runs above replacement given his past 3 seasons, and it’s probably even higher than that.

FWIW, MGL just released a limited amount of UZR data and has Beltre tied with Mark Ellis and Scott Rolen as the 3rd best defensive infielder in the league over the last 5 seasons (behind Adam Everett and Craig Counsell). His FRAR may be higher than normal this season, but his reputation is consistently excellent.

Casey Blake is a bad defensive 3B. He didn’t play 3B in 2006. In 2007 he played 1209 innings at 3B and posted a FRAR of -10.4. In 2008 he played 1104 innings at 3B and posted a FRAR of -11.4. The Reds don’t need Casey Blake, they already have EdE. Beltre would be an upgrade over Edwin defensively while likely matching his offensive production.

I hadn’t really looked at the “possible alternatives” before I listed them. I was only looking at names of potential 3B that are apparently available and who I thought might be worthy of discussion. There may be other alternatives that I’ve missed, including minor leaguers who might be available.

"You never want to give up a 7-0 lead, in your rival's ballpark, that would put them in first place. Never want to do that." - Ron Darling

by Slyde on Oct 27, 2008 10:52 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

some more FWIW

Chone Smith’s projections for next season have Beltre ranked behind only Scott Rolen at 3B (and tied with a couple of other players) at 11 runs saved. Blake is at -8 and EdE is at -14. (hat tip: Justin). And I agree with Justin that if the Reds want to be competitive in 2009, something has to be done about the defense at 3B and SS.

"You never want to give up a 7-0 lead, in your rival's ballpark, that would put them in first place. Never want to do that." - Ron Darling

by Slyde on Oct 27, 2008 11:15 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Ok.

I wasn’t arguing for Blake, necessarily. As you said, one season’s numbers (offensive or defensive) shouldn’t be enough to make a decision on (like Seattle did with Beltre). I was just looking for more info.

All things being equal, I’d much rather sign a free agent – you’re not giving anything up other than money. Even with the number of 3B prospects in the system (starting with Frasier, who might be ready pretty soon), they’re still just prospects. Plus, if (say) Frasier is the answer at 3B, you have a pretty valuable trade chip.

In the previous thread touting Beltre, last year’s FRAR was used as a basis for arguing Beltre is 40 runs better than EdE, which didn’t pass the smell test, at least for me. Even 25 seems pretty extreme (what would that be – an extra play every other game?), but at least seems to be in the realm of possibility.

And when you’re talking about $12M, that’s real cash. For instance, Mike Lowell (who also has an excellent reputation at 3B, with Chone projecting has him at +5 next year; he makes the same $12M/yr) might be available to the Reds without commanding any “A” prospects. I thought I read somewhere that Ty Wigginton would be available as a FA this winter; last year’s +7.5 FRAR (and his range factors at 3B the past few years) seem at odds with Chone’s -8 projection.

Like I said, it’s that FRAR for Beltre that’s raising red flags for me, and it seemed some are putting alot of stock in what seem suspicious numbers.

Often wrong, never uncertain.

by sidnancy on Oct 27, 2008 1:47 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Even 25 seems pretty extreme (what would that be – an extra play every other game?)

I don’t think 25 runs is that unreasonable. It’s about an extra play every 5 or 6 games, as I understand it. And EdE’s numbers don’t make that difference unrealistic:
2006: -8.2 FRAR
2007: -9.5 FRAR
2008: -16.6 FRAR

Maybe a 20 run difference is more realistic, but that’s still 2 wins on defense alone.

Mike Lowell (who also has an excellent reputation at 3B, with Chone projecting has him at +5 next year; he makes the same $12M/yr) might be available to the Reds without commanding any "A" prospects.

Would you seriously rather trade for and spend $12 million on Mike Lowell when the guy has a history of back problems that were bad enough to keep him off of the ALCS roster? I’m not saying the Reds should trade an A-level prospect, if they really have any of those to trade right now. But I’d package a couple of mid-level prospects for him. The Reds have depth in the minors right now. As long as they don’t drain that depth completely, they can take a shot at next season and still be on the path to building a winner long term.

I thought I read somewhere that Ty Wigginton would be available as a FA this winter; last year’s +7.5 FRAR (and his range factors at 3B the past few years) seem at odds with Chone’s -8 projection.

Wigginton is still in his arbitration years, but more than half of his defensive value came from limited time in LF last season. He was decent at 3B (3.0 FRAR in 652 innings), but that doesn’t necessarily follow the trend where he’s been fairly mediocre there, if not bad, during his career.

Like I said, it’s that FRAR for Beltre that’s raising red flags for me, and it seemed some are putting alot of stock in what seem suspicious numbers.

Why are his numbers suspicious? They use the same formula that all of the other players use. I agree that 23 FRAR is probably not his normal level, but I haven’t been arguing that it is. Do you think a 13.9 FRAR (his 3-year average) is unrealistic? Or do you just think that his price tag is a lot higher than I think it is?

"You never want to give up a 7-0 lead, in your rival's ballpark, that would put them in first place. Never want to do that." - Ron Darling

by Slyde on Oct 27, 2008 2:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Whoa, horse

I don’t think 25 runs is that unreasonable. It’s about an extra play every 5 or 6 games, as I understand it.

If 25 runs is an extra play every 6 games, that makes every play worth a run. That seems like alot.

Would you seriously rather trade for and spend $12 million on Mike Lowell when the guy has a history of back problems that were bad enough to keep him off of the ALCS roster?

I didn’t say that I would; just that at first glance he’d have to be considered. His back problems (and his age) make him less valuable than Beltre; the questions are: (1) How bad is his back (he’s played 150+ games 5 of the previous 6 seasons, and 140+ 7 of the previous 8) and (2) How much less valuable?

Wigginton is still in his arbitration years, but more than half of his defensive value came from limited time in LF last season. He was decent at 3B (3.0 FRAR in 652 innings), but that doesn’t necessarily follow the trend where he’s been fairly mediocre there, if not bad, during his career.

BPro looks at his defense differently. They show him as +13 this year at 3B (and 0 in LF). For comparison, they see Beltre at +9 this year and EdE at -2. Now granted Wigginton’s numbers look like an outlier, but (1) by their numbers, Beltre’s had 2 sub-par (for him) seasons in a row, and after 2 seasons it starts looking like a new level of performance, and (2) his 14 run improvement by BPro’s numbers isn’t as big as Beltre’s 23 run improvement by Justin’s numbers.

Meaning? I don’t trust the 23.7 at all. And if he isn’t 10+ runs better on defense than everyone else, other options open up.

Why are his numbers suspicious? They use the same formula that all of the other players use. I agree that 23 FRAR is probably not his normal level, but I haven’t been arguing that it is. Do you think a 13.9 FRAR (his 3-year average) is unrealistic? Or do you just think that his price tag is a lot higher than I think it is?

I thought I made clear that the ’08 number was the one I thought was suspect.

Often wrong, never uncertain.

by sidnancy on Oct 27, 2008 4:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

If 25 runs is an extra play every 6 games, that makes every play worth a run.

Not quite. By my understanding, every extra play above average is worth about 0.8 runs, so 25 runs would be about 31 extra plays, or one every 5+ games.

"You never want to give up a 7-0 lead, in your rival's ballpark, that would put them in first place. Never want to do that." - Ron Darling

by Slyde on Oct 27, 2008 4:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

can i trade chipper jones?

i would trade chipper jones for adrian beltre. i hope this comment helps get the ball rolling.

What do you mean, "blank slate"?

by boobs on Oct 27, 2008 10:55 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

i'd rather play the who wouldn't i trade game...

i wouldn’t trade brendan’s mom for adrian beltre

Think of me what you will...I gotta little space to fill

by chandrathan on Oct 27, 2008 10:58 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I disagree

I think we’ve got some talented moms coming up through the system that we can fill the void with. You know, some real 5-tool players, as opposed to the one-dimensional mom we have in the lineup.

"My wife ain't never ran and got me no pheasant." - Fistbands

by BK on Oct 27, 2008 11:07 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

My mom literally has veteran presence out the ass.

by Brendanukkah on Oct 27, 2008 11:14 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

i think it's terrible that bk would cast her aside after all of her years of service

and believe me, she’s serviced us all…

Think of me what you will...I gotta little space to fill

by chandrathan on Oct 27, 2008 12:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Oh, in no way would I ever try to undermine her achievements here

it’s just about time we get someone with the versatility she showed in her earlier years, plus give her the chance to play for a contender. I think South Side Sox could use a role player like her, if we can get them to take on that ridiculous contract Slyde gave her…

"My wife ain't never ran and got me no pheasant." - Fistbands

by BK on Oct 27, 2008 12:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

She is from Illinois...

by Brendanukkah on Oct 27, 2008 12:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Would you trade Drew Stubbs and others for him?

How about Juan Francisco, Matt Maloney, and Pedro Viola?

"You never want to give up a 7-0 lead, in your rival's ballpark, that would put them in first place. Never want to do that." - Ron Darling

by Slyde on Oct 27, 2008 10:59 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

i wouldnt trade stubbs

As for the other three players, I would package them all for Beltre. i think francisco is making himself an expendable commodity, and i have little hope that maloney will ever be successful in the majors. viola isn’t our only old-for-his-level reliever with a k/9 ratio above 9, and he’ll be 26 next year and hasn’t sniffed triple-a. so yeah, id send those guys along for a year and the rights to negotiate with beltre.

What do you mean, "blank slate"?

by boobs on Oct 27, 2008 11:11 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Agreed

by Brendanukkah on Oct 27, 2008 11:15 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'm down.

Would you really want to extend him though (at least right away)? One of the best parts about the deal is that it’s only a one year deal so it won’t block prospects.

"My wife ain't never ran and got me no pheasant." - Fistbands

by BK on Oct 27, 2008 11:18 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

in these discussion, i never worry about salaries

I just assume my team is willing to spend hundreds of millions of dollars

What do you mean, "blank slate"?

by boobs on Oct 27, 2008 12:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

How would you rank the 3B prospects in the system?

Given Frazier, Francisco, Waring, and Soto, who should be shopped this off-season? Are any of them off the market?

Also, I know he only played 34 games in Rookie ball, but since Alex Buchholz put up his .396/.471/.604 line, and since the Reds have BP and possibly Valaika at 2B, would you trade Justin Turner?

"You never want to give up a 7-0 lead, in your rival's ballpark, that would put them in first place. Never want to do that." - Ron Darling

by Slyde on Oct 27, 2008 11:20 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Also, outfielders

Cumberland, Dorn, Sean Henry, Chris Heisey – any of those guys have significant trade value?

"You never want to give up a 7-0 lead, in your rival's ballpark, that would put them in first place. Never want to do that." - Ron Darling

by Slyde on Oct 27, 2008 11:22 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I can't imagine any of those guys would generate any interest

they’re pretty much all over-achievers, yet they don’t really project to be above-average outfielders in the majors. Juan Duran, Yorman Rodriguez and Stubbs are a different matter, however.

What do you mean, "blank slate"?

by boobs on Oct 27, 2008 12:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Soto, Frazier, Francisco, Waring

The first two are tough to pick between, but Soto is younger and had a better season last year, plus he projects for more power. Frazier is a little more versatile, as he can play just about all the infield positions, and from what I was hearing Soto has a good shot of ending up in the outfield. Still, Neftali Soto gets me going a little bit more than Frazier. Francisco and Waring did little for me last year. They could both have power in the majors, but they don’t get on base terribly well. I’m not sure you can get much out of those two, and I don’t want to lose soto or frazier. But if Frazier brings a really good proven player, I’d move him.

I don’t think Alex Buchholz makes Justin Turner expendable, but Valaika, Zach Cozart and Brandon Phillips might. I can see Turner sticking in the majors, but with those three middle infielders ahead of him, probably not with the Reds. So sure, move him.

What do you mean, "blank slate"?

by boobs on Oct 27, 2008 12:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

i probably should have posted year-end prospect rankings

but i was away in mongolia for the last month of the season. if anyone hasnt seen them, check out doug’s rankings here, here, here and here. I pretend to be knowledgeable on the reds’ farm system, but this is really his thing, and he’s terrific at it.

What do you mean, "blank slate"?

by boobs on Oct 27, 2008 1:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

What I would trade for Beltre

It depends how much salary they would take on. If they aren’t willing to take any, then I am not going to give up much and try to pawn Ryan Freel off on them. If they are willing to pay 3-4 million of his salary, I would honestly trade them a guy like Francisco + 2 second rate prospects (Think Sean Henry, Shaun Cumberland, Chris Heisey, Sam Lecure and so on). If push came to shove, I may think about trading straight up for Todd Frazier if they took on 4 million of Beltre’s salary.

www.redsminorleagues.com

by dougdirt on Oct 27, 2008 11:29 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I was a bit more skeptical before I read the defensive stats,

And the contract year is an undeniable plus. So yeah, a decent prospect like francisco and a couple mid-level guys as doug suggests would do it for me, though I’m not the sharpest tool in the shed when it comes to talent analysis. However, I’d like to see EdE in LF. Couldn’t be too much worse than Dunn, and I still think he can be a very productive offensive threat.
This would make the opening day lineup, IMO:
Dickerson
Bruce
Phillips
Votto
EdE
Beltre
Gonzo/Kepp/FA Signee
Hanigan/FA Signee
Volquez/Harang/Arroyo/Cueto/?

That team can make the playoffs, right?

Politickin' in God's Country

by chesirecat on Oct 27, 2008 12:18 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

no, I don't think that team makes the playoffs in 2009

It’s at least one significant bat short and probably more than that.

"You never want to give up a 7-0 lead, in your rival's ballpark, that would put them in first place. Never want to do that." - Ron Darling

by Slyde on Oct 27, 2008 12:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

you callin my team a midget?

by jacob brumfield on Oct 27, 2008 1:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

If so,

we got you the hook-up right here.

Vote Pops in '08. I promise nothing and I'll do it!

by Pops Daniels on Oct 27, 2008 1:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Slyde

Why the voice of reason. My life sucks bad enough right now that I really need baseless hope in a Reds Playoff appearance.

Politickin' in God's Country

by chesirecat on Oct 27, 2008 2:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

because if we pretended that it would only take one player

we wouldn’t have anything else to talk about this winter. I’m not saying they can’t make the playoffs, they just need more.

"You never want to give up a 7-0 lead, in your rival's ballpark, that would put them in first place. Never want to do that." - Ron Darling

by Slyde on Oct 27, 2008 2:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

"More" Boy?!

Then 'twas the Roman, now 'tis I.

by Man Mountain on Oct 27, 2008 3:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

And if Jockety does the same thing

He makes a stupid move that cripples the team for years to come.

But he should still sniff around and see if Holliday’s an option.

Often wrong, never uncertain.

by sidnancy on Oct 27, 2008 4:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I doubt Jocketty thinks this team is one player away

I’ll give him more credit than that.

And I don’t think they are a Holliday away from competing either. It’s gonna take a 9+9+9=8 philosophy to pull off a miracle next year.

"You never want to give up a 7-0 lead, in your rival's ballpark, that would put them in first place. Never want to do that." - Ron Darling

by Slyde on Oct 27, 2008 4:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

when did slyde an sidnancy become bitter enemies?

Think of me what you will...I gotta little space to fill

by chandrathan on Oct 27, 2008 4:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

we've had our throw downs in the past

And even though he’s wrong as wrong can be, I still respect him in his devotion to his wrongness. :)

"You never want to give up a 7-0 lead, in your rival's ballpark, that would put them in first place. Never want to do that." - Ron Darling

by Slyde on Oct 27, 2008 5:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

he sells hondas

you drive a honda…

you’ll be friends for life…

Think of me what you will...I gotta little space to fill

by chandrathan on Oct 27, 2008 5:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

What

Everyone else can call him a jerk but I can’t?

Jerks.

Often wrong, never uncertain.

by sidnancy on Oct 27, 2008 6:14 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs

This team needs 3 addiitons

1. LF – w/Big Bat
2. Middle infielder – who can play excellent D and hit
3. 3B who can field better than EdE and perform offensively as well if not better.

LF – Holiday – Walt wants him
MI – Jerry Jr.
3b – Beltre

Trade bait

Gonzo
EdE
STubbs
boobs

I will be a little sad but I don’t think that EdE is long for the Reds. Gonzo neither

Opening Day lineup:

Dickerson
Hairston
Bruce
Votto
Phillips
Beltre
Hanigan

This team would be competitive with our BP, Starters and an improved bench and a new manager.

Right slyde…

Sgt. McCAin and Sarah The Impaler don't scare me none.

by Madville on Oct 27, 2008 7:41 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Opps pencil in Holliday at #4 and Votto at #5

Sorry

Sgt. McCAin and Sarah The Impaler don't scare me none.

by Madville on Oct 27, 2008 7:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

hey guys

where’s the game thread?

Think of me what you will...I gotta little space to fill

by chandrathan on Oct 27, 2008 7:59 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Put one up

Our overlords appear to busy elsewhere tonight.

All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?

by BubbaFan on Oct 27, 2008 8:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

no way dude

there are a lot of people that have the powers to put up a game thread…

i guess they just don’t find the world series to be that important…

Think of me what you will...I gotta little space to fill

by chandrathan on Oct 27, 2008 8:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'm on it. One moment please.

"My wife ain't never ran and got me no pheasant." - Fistbands

by BK on Oct 27, 2008 8:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

kthanx

Think of me what you will...I gotta little space to fill

by chandrathan on Oct 27, 2008 8:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Up.

http://www.redreporter.com/2008/10/27/647880/world-series-game-5-thread

"My wife ain't never ran and got me no pheasant." - Fistbands

by BK on Oct 27, 2008 8:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

What's the alternative?

Let’s look at Slyde’s question another way. Suppose we can agree that we need something like another 40-50 runs over this year’s team to be competitive, probably more than that to have a solid shot at the playoffs. (Not to toot my own horn, but it seemed like that was a reasonable estimate). Where can we get it next year?

One obvious answer: Manny. Estimates are wild and varied, but it seems like people are thinking something like 4 years, $90-$100M. That would mean a big boost to the payroll. Would Bob ever do it? Plus, Manny is 37.

Halliday is in the mix, of course, though he will take quite a bit of talent to trade for.

Teixeira will be a free agent, but he doesn’t play 3rd or OF, so that doesn’t help a lot.

I’m not seeing any other really obvious fits. Here are the 3-year RC/27. Everyone on that list seems to be either 1) old or 2) unavailable.

It’s going to take a Jock-o-Miracle, I’m afraid.

by bbjones on Oct 28, 2008 12:15 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

by my estimate

The Reds need to swing their run differential by 150 runs to get to 87 wins. I just sent this to Erardi a couple of days ago, so I’ll reprint it here:

5th starter: The ERA of the non-big 4 (EV, Arroyo, Harang, Cueto) was 7.47 last year. If the non-primary starters can post an ERA around 5.50, that would save the Reds 37 runs.
Harang & Cueto both need to improve. Get Harang back to his previous level, and that’s about 22 runs. Get Cueto’s ERA under 4.00, and that’s another 18 runs. Net: 40 runs
The bullpen and Arroyo and Volquez need to hold steady and perform like they did in 2008.
Defense – replace EdE with Beltre, that’s 30 runs. Replace the collection of shorstop crap with Brian Roberts at 2B and BP at SS, that’s 10 runs. Bruce instead of Griffey is 5 runs. Hope EdE and the CF can at least maintain the previous level of defense in LF and CF. That may mean a slight improvement with EdE over Dunn and a slight drop-off with Dickerson instead of Patterson et al. Net: 50 runs (NOTE: some of this will be reflected in the improved ERA of the staff, so we may want to say 35 or 40 runs saved).

That gets the runs allowed down to around 690.

On offense:

Hanigan + backup is probably break-even with Bako et al. Unless they get a solid bat, we’ll play this one safe.
Votto maintains.
Roberts is 25 runs better than Phillips
Phillips is 15 runs better than what they got out of shortstop last year (I think, it’s hard to tell since so many players split time there)
Beltre would break even with EdE
EdE would be about 15 runs less than Dunn
Centerfielders would be about 5-10 runs better than last year
Bruce needs to play better than he did last year in RF, but if he does, he could be 10 runs better than RF last year

That’s a rough estimate of 40 runs of improvement, or 745 runs. That’s 87 wins.

I’m not sure that’s enough to get to the playoffs though, but it definitely gives them a better shot than what they’ve got right now.

The real problem they would have is making the necessary acquisitions without draining the farm system or overburdening the budget for the future.

"You never want to give up a 7-0 lead, in your rival's ballpark, that would put them in first place. Never want to do that." - Ron Darling

by Slyde on Oct 28, 2008 9:36 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think Beltre could be had

for salary + Frazier + Thompson/Maloney + Roenicke (or other solid releiver) + Dorn

That would be a lot of talent, but Seattle needs a lot of players. They have no LF (Balentin was pretty awful), badly need pitching depth, and could use a 3b. If we took on all of Beltre’s 8m, I could see this happening.

I’m far less convinced about the Brian Roberts bit, but I’ll read your post first.

...because there's already someone posing as Jacob Brumfield

by Cy Schourek on Oct 28, 2008 1:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I don't think Beltre will require that much

his salary is $12M and has already implied that he’s not interested in sticking around if the M’s are rebuilding. If Frazier is included, I don’t think it takes 4 players.

"You never want to give up a 7-0 lead, in your rival's ballpark, that would put them in first place. Never want to do that." - Ron Darling

by Slyde on Oct 28, 2008 1:22 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

i would hesitant

to include Frazier at all. I would rather see something like Thompson + 2 of Heisey, Turner, Viola, Waring or something like that. the M’s should be more interested in dumping the salary and i would be more than welcome to spend the money and keep the ’spects.

"If you don't get the President of the United States on that phone, you know what's gonna happen to you? You're gonna have to answer to the Coca-Cola company."

by Charlie Scrabbles on Oct 28, 2008 1:28 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs