McCoy: Can the Reds be the Phillies?

I was going to make this it’s own fanpost, but we already have enough "Will the Reds be any good in 2009" threads. So, I’ll post it here. Sorry it’s a little long.

I’m an engineer, most of the time, at work. And I’m a big fan of Akin’s First Law. So, it seemed like bringing some numbers to bear on this question would be a good idea.

First of all, these are not meant to be precise. I’m not trying to argue that Votto will be 23 runs above average, as opposed to 21. I’m just trying to get a general sense of what it will take to get in range of the playoffs.

In 2008, the Reds scored 704 runs, and gave up 800. That’s a Pythagorean win expectation of 71 wins. I asked Excel to tell me how much improvement would have to be made to get to 88 wins, assume equal improvement of offense and defense. The answer: 80 runs from the hitters, and 80 runs from the pitching/defense.

Lee Sinin’s Runs Created Above Average numbers tell a similar story. Although his RCAA underpredicts the Reds scoring, his RSAA underpredicts their runs allowed, so that he also ends up with 71 expected wins in 2008. Using his numbers, I also find we need an 80 run improvement each on offense and defense.

So, let’s look at what we got this year (according to Sinins):

Joey Votto           23

Adam Dunn            20

Jerry Hairston Jr.   16

Chris Dickerson      12

Edwin Encarnacion     3

Ken Griffey Jr.       1

Ryan Hanigan          0

Javier Valentin      -1

David Ross           -2

Wilkin Castillo      -2

Adam Rosales         -2

Juan Castro          -2

Andy Phillips        -3

Norris Hopper        -4

Jolbert Cabrera      -4

Danny Richar         -4

Scott Hatteberg      -5

Ryan Freel           -5

Paul Janish          -8

Jay Bruce            -8

Brandon Phillips    -12

Paul Bako           -20

Jeff Keppinger      -23

Corey Patterson     -32

If you extrapolate Dickerson to a whole season, you get something like +20 RCAA. That seems optimistic; I’ll put him down for 15. Bruce will be better next year (or at least, so we are all promised). Put him down for +10. (For comparison, note that Manny was +47). Who knows who will be in center. Suppose it’s a replacement level hitter, or somebody chosen for defense, and we put them down for -10.

Votto is supposed to be better next year; let’s assume he stays the same. Phillips was worse than 2007, but better than 2006. Let’s be optimistic, and put him down for -5. Sea Bass, based on his career OPS+ of 80, is probably good for -12. Encarnacion upped his SLG this year, at the expense of his average, making his OPS+ nearly unchanged. Leave him at +3. Assume we can get a veteran catcher to back up Hannigan at no worse than David Ross.

What do we have?

LF:   Dickerson   +15
CF:   Somebody    -10
RF:   Bruce       +10
1B:   Votto       +23
2B:   Phillips     -5
SS:   Gonzalez    -12
3B:   Encarnacion  +3
C:    Hannigan/?   -2
Fill-ins:         -45

The fill-ins here are the bench guys. I summed up the contribution of everyone between Valentin and Janish in the list above. Next year, the names will be different, but the performance is probably about the same.

This gives us a -23, or a roughly 40 run improvement on 2008. Halfway there. If you want to get that in a single player, the NL players in that range this year were Ethier*, Ludwick, and Utley.

<*> Ethier might be an interesting choice here. He appears to be a somewhat below average fielder, but if he hits next year like he did this year, that would be nearly a 50 run swing over a replacement player.

Okay, how about the pitching? Here’s what Sinins’ has for 2008:

REDS
Edinson Volquez      26
Jeremy Affeldt        9
Francisco Cordero     9
Dave Weathers         9
Jared Burton          8
Bill Bray             8
Nick Masset           5
Ramon Ramirez         5
Kent Mercker          2
Jon Adkins            1
Mike Lincoln          0
Daniel Herrera       -2
Josh Roenicke        -2
Daryl Thompson       -4
Todd Coffey          -4
Adam Pettyjohn       -7
Aaron Harang         -8
Bronson Arroyo       -8
Johnny Cueto         -8
Gary Majewski        -9
Matt Belisle         -9
Homer Bailey        -14
Josh Fogg           -28

Again, for reference, Volquez’ 26 RSAA was 8th in the league. Lincecum lead it with 44.

Once again, simply ditching Fogg and Bailey nets 42 runs.

The front four are easy here. It would be hubris to claim Volquez will get better; we’ll keep him at 26. Harang had a bad year. Not only did The Long March game hurt him, he also got unlucky. Let’s assume he gets about a +15. Arroyo is not as good as Harang, but better than he was. Let’s put him at 0. Cueto is a cuestion.. he might be really good, but maybe not. Based on very little, I’ll guess +5.

As has been pointed out, there are plenty of 5th starter options. That probably means we’ll let some bad ones lose us some games (see Fogg, Josh), and then settle on someone pretty decent. Optimistically, let’s hope for a -5 from the 5th starters.
Then, we’ll assume the bullpen gives us the same as we had, but without Affeldt and Belisle (though he was starting for a while, I know). That adds up to +19. According to Sinins, our bullpen was actually pretty good this year. Let’s pull that back a bit, and put down a +12.

So, what does that give us?

Volquez        26

Harang         15

Arroyo          0

Cueto           5

5th starter    -5

Pen            12

That adds up to 53, as compared to this years -21, or a swing of about 75. For what it’s worth, 53 RSAA would have been good for 5th best in the NL this year. That doesn’t seem ludicrous.

Now, I haven’t addressed defense here, for the same reason most people don’t: it’s too hard. If you think we are going to save runs on defense, though, we can add it to the pitching.

Bottom line: IF no one gets hurt, and IF everyone plays to expectations, we can hope for much better pitching next year. IF we can get a bat in the lineup that’s worth 40 RCAA, we could be thinking about 88 wins.

It’s going to take a lot to go right, but it’s not impossible.

Now, the nice thing about this is that it helps frame our options in terms of what’s reasonable. Many of my numbers there are guesses — let’s fill in better ones and see where it leads us. Bruce becoming Manny might barely get us to the playoffs; Bruce next to Manny in the outfield is a whole different story. I mean this as a starting point — please add your giant brains so we can come up with a plan that will really work. Then we’ll get Slyde to tell Walt.

Also, sorry for the goofy lines in the tables. My 733t skilz are not so.