Rank the Reds: The 40-man roster
I'm trying to get some ideas together for the off-season and I was looking through the 40-man roster trying to see who I'd be willing to see traded or dropped and who I think is untouchable. In doing so, I came up with a list. Let me know what you think. Who am I wrong on? Who do you think is untouchable? Keep in mind that I only looked at the 40-man roster, so guys like Stubbs and Valaika haven't been included.
The "Untouchables"
First of all, I don't consider anybody untouchable in the strictest sense of the word, but these are players that would require an unbelievable return for me to budge on the deal. The order within each group doesn't matter so much as the groupings themselves. However, the higher I rank somebody, the less likely I am to make a deal involving them.
1. Johnny Cueto
2. Edinson Volquez
3. Jay Bruce
4. Joey Votto
5. Aaron Harang
6. Brandon Phillips
7. Jared Burton
8. Yonder Alonso
It really doesn't matter that Alonso is on this list because he can't be dealt anyway. But even if that weren't the case, I'd probably put him on the list in that spot. The top 3 are interchangeable, but I ranked Cueto first because I truly think he's going to be an ace next season. My only real concern with him is injury.
Spotlight player: Aaron Harang is where he is for two reasons. First, he's still a very good pitcher and signed to a reasonable contract. Secondly, and more importantly, he is coming off of a down season and it is precisely not the time to trade him. His value is at the lowest it's been in 3 years. He is more valuable to the Reds than in a trade, so don't trade him.

The Shop-Arounds
9. Bronson Arroyo
10. Bill Bray
11. Edwin Encarnacion
12. Chris Dickerson
13. Francisco Cordero
14. Josh Roenicke
15. Daryl Thompson
16. Ryan Hanigan
17. Micah Owings
18. Homer Bailey
19. Daniel Ray Herrera
20. Wilkin Castillo
Cordero is another player where it probably doesn't matter where he appears. He has a no-trade clause through next season, so I doubt he's going anywhere. But, I'd still be dropping his name and hoping that I can convince him to move if a deal is agreed upon.
Spotlight player: Homer Bailey is on this list mainly because of the volume of 5th starters the Reds have right now. His stock has definitely dropped and I wouldn't be dealing him just to deal him, but with Thompson, Owings, Ramirez, and Livingston in the fold, I think any one of those guys could be shipped for whatever gets you the best value. Bailey might just have the most value because of his age, upside, and a not too far-out belief that a change of scenery could turn him around.
The Get-What-You-Cans
21. Ramon Ramirez
22. Jeff Keppinger
23. Matt Belisle
24. Bobby Livingston
25. Alex Gonzalez
26. Nick Masset
27. Tyler Pelland
28. Adam Rosales
29. Ryan Freel
30. Paul Janish
31. Danny Richar
32. Gary Majewski
33. Norris Hopper
34. Craig Tatum
I don't mean that the Reds should dump these guys for whatever, but many of these guys could help spice up a deal involving a bigger name or add veteran presence to a deal involving minor leaguers. Alone they are not going to net you any big fish, but they can make a deal more robust for the right team. The real point of this segment is that I wouldn't hold on to these guys just to hold on to them. If they can help get a real shortstop or some solid bullpen help, they're gone.
Spotlight player: Jeff Keppinger might not belong on this list, but I don't really see a need to hold on to him unless the Reds clear out the other bench options. I'm not opposed to keeping him as a bench player - I think that is his ideal role, especially batting against left-handed pitching - but I can't see any reason to not trade him if he helps fill a need in the starting lineup. Realistically though, you could switch him with Wilkin Castillo on the list and it's not that big of a difference. I just think Castillo has a bit more upside, especially as a bench player.
Free Agents that I'd go after
35. Jeremy Affeldt
36. Mike Lincoln
37. David Weathers
38. Jerry Hairston Jr.
None of these guys need to be chased aggressively, but I wouldn't be opposed to any of them coming back under the right circumstances. However, if Hairston AND Freel are on the roster next year, I will be seriously disappointed.
Bye Bye Bye
Andy Phillips
Javier Valentin
Josh Fogg
Kent Mercker
Paul Bako
Corey Patterson
Can anyone make an argument for bringing any of these guys back?
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comments
Comments
Follow up question
Do you think anybody in the minor league system not currently on the 40-man roster should be considered untouchable?
"You never want to give up a 7-0 lead, in your rival's ballpark, that would put them in first place. Never want to do that." - Ron Darling
by Slyde on Oct 10, 2008 11:21 AM EDT 0 recs
nope
I hope Walt is smart enough to know we are so close to being there, that stockpiling youth will do us no good. I am not saying trade every guy, but with the right move (and that move is a Juan Duran led package for Jake Peavy) we will be contenders for the next handful of years.
by jacob brumfield on
Oct 10, 2008 12:02 PM EDT
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no
but I’m pretty sure that by the middle of next season, there’ll be at least one minor leaguer who many of us will want to put on that list, probably from the Valaika/Frazier/Francisco/Dorn group.
Kentuck Arts Festival: October 18th.
Details at Sinful Savage Tigers
by Man Mountain on
Oct 10, 2008 12:04 PM EDT
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Call it a gut feeling
But I’m pretty sure we’ll see Javy back in a Reds uniform next year.
by Brendanukkah on Oct 10, 2008 11:37 AM EDT 1 recs
Rec'd for "gut"
"Aio, quantitas magna frumentorum est."
by jch24 on
Oct 10, 2008 11:40 AM EDT
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Slyde,
I’ll redocrate your basement and give you a brand new superfast computer, and even let you touch a girl, if you give me Johnny Cueto.
"It will put a smile on your face to see a Chevy with a Soviet transmission"
by justin007000 on Oct 10, 2008 11:42 AM EDT 0 recs
redocrate:
1) to docrate again.
2) to ocrate a space with excessive red’s memorabilia.
3) a crate used to mark the presence of ghost-men after one team has called for a “do-over” in a game of backyard whiffle ball.
Tanzen!
by Verka Serduchka on
Oct 10, 2008 11:57 AM EDT
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I like #3
rec’d
"You never want to give up a 7-0 lead, in your rival's ballpark, that would put them in first place. Never want to do that." - Ron Darling
by Slyde on
Oct 10, 2008 12:08 PM EDT
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I imagine the crate having feet (but no legs)
and waddling around the bases after the next hit. Sort of like that pile of money that walks around the dude’s house in that commercial. Or a very square Fry Guy.
by Brendanukkah on
Oct 10, 2008 12:14 PM EDT
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it's called a gonk droid
Worst action figure ever.
by Red Menace on
Oct 10, 2008 2:41 PM EDT
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meesa thinks wees cann fine worser dan dat
Kentuck Arts Festival: October 18th.
Details at Sinful Savage Tigers
by Man Mountain on
Oct 10, 2008 3:26 PM EDT
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hey
GO BACK TO SPANISH
"It will put a smile on your face to see a Chevy with a Soviet transmission"
by justin007000 on
Oct 10, 2008 2:49 PM EDT
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whatever you say, Mr. The Kid
Kentuck Arts Festival: October 18th.
Details at Sinful Savage Tigers
by Man Mountain on
Oct 10, 2008 3:24 PM EDT
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¡pues, que usted le redocra ahora mismo!
Tanzen!
by Verka Serduchka on
Oct 10, 2008 6:26 PM EDT
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wait, it was supposed to be a tú command...
¡redocrate!
Tanzen!
by Verka Serduchka on
Oct 10, 2008 6:29 PM EDT
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good work overall
but i dont want to see Hairston back at all. i really like what he did this year, but its the most obvious case of fluke you can come across. id offer him minor league deal and tell him to prove that he can do it again, but he wouldnt take that. take a bow, Cherry. its over.
as for the bullpen free agents, i would offer them all arbitration. Affeldt will clearly get 3 years this offseason and we should not be the ones to do that. we can take the pick and say goodbye.
Weathers is a bit more complicated. he seems to like it in Cincy and he’s pitched well, and of course the VPness helps. i get the feeling he could get 2 years from someone though, and i dont want to do that.
Lincoln is a strange case. i think we were all surprised he even made it out of spring training, and then he stuck with the team all year and pitched adequately, given his circumstances. it will be interesting to see what rolls out. im really afraid of Mike Stanton.
"for integrity of races and the game" - Dusty Baker
by Charlie Scrabbles on Oct 10, 2008 12:23 PM EDT 0 recs
You don't buy into the broken rib theory?
J-Hairs was playing injured for a while and now that he is healthy he is his true self?
Isn’t he also on the list in the Mitchell report? Does that mean anything?
Tanzen!
by Verka Serduchka on
Oct 10, 2008 12:28 PM EDT
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It's kind of funny to say "Now he is healthy"
He missed a considerable chunk of time on the DL this year. I’m interested in what kind of deal Cherry would be looking for. I’d like to have him back because he did play well when he was available, and his ability to play a number of positions is definitely helpful. He’s a Ryan Freel type player; I just don’t want to give him a Ryan Freel type contract.
by Brendanukkah on
Oct 10, 2008 12:34 PM EDT
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i dont buy anything anyone is selling about Cherry
dude has played 100+ games only 4 seasons of his career, and 120 games only twice. he is always hurt or ineffective.
"for integrity of races and the game" - Dusty Baker
by Charlie Scrabbles on
Oct 10, 2008 1:44 PM EDT
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I agree with you Chuckles.
Vote Pops in '08. I promise nothing and I'll do it!
by Pops Daniels on
Oct 10, 2008 12:28 PM EDT
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I think thats a wee bit too much love for Burton
Baller middle relievers are nice, but aren’t the difference between this and 88 wins. I’d put Owings/Bailey/Thompson ahead of him, probably in that order. I’m also a big fan of Encarnacion still, but I think his fan club is falling fast. Not that he’s the sort of person to build a team around, but he sure ain’t bad.
Moral of the story: this team sucks.
...because there's already someone posing as Jacob Brumfield
by Cy Schourek on Oct 10, 2008 12:29 PM EDT 0 recs
Burton
Maybe Slyde just wants him as the closer, which is one of the reason’s he’s shopping SoSo as aggressively as he is.
by Brendanukkah on
Oct 10, 2008 12:35 PM EDT
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I'd be alright with that
but only because South Carolina has a cool flag:
![]()
...because there's already someone posing as Jacob Brumfield
by Cy Schourek on
Oct 10, 2008 1:11 PM EDT
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That crescent moon looks familiar...
South Hussein Carolina is a Muslim!
by Brendanukkah on
Oct 10, 2008 1:13 PM EDT
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(channeled my inner Madville for a second there)
by Brendanukkah on
Oct 10, 2008 1:14 PM EDT
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You're about 8 beers and an N-bomb behind
"My wife ain't never ran and got me no pheasant." - Fistbands
by BK on
Oct 10, 2008 1:41 PM EDT
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I consider Corey Patterson
to be an “”http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indian_caste_system" >Untouchable."
by Brendanukkah on Oct 10, 2008 2:08 PM EDT 0 recs
Where the hell is my ALCS/NLCS games thread, Slyde??
I’m PUMPED about the games today!
(or I’m bored at work, one or the other)
"Aio, quantitas magna frumentorum est."
by jch24 on Oct 10, 2008 3:47 PM EDT 0 recs
Well, you asked.
I’ll Burn My Reds Hat if Traded:
1. Jay Bruce – 22 year old stud in the making. Should be the cornerstone of the team for years to come.
2. Joey Votto – Needs to be a bit less venturesome on defense; otherwise another guy to keep around for a while.
3. Johnny Cueto – I don’t know if he’ll be an ace, but young and certainly a solid #2.
4. Aaron Harang – He’s the ace of the club. I fully expect next year to be as good as, or better than, ’07.
Stuck With Him:
5. Yonder Alonzo – Not in a bad way, mind you, but by the rules he can’t be traded. I just hope either he or Votto can play a different position.
6. Francisco Cordero – Only because of his contract; otherwise, he’d drop 3 categories.
I’d Be Disappointed, But You Have To Give Up Talent To Get Talent:
7. Edinson Volquez – ERA through May 31: 1.46. After: 4.15, which I think is closer to his real ability. That would be awfully valuable, but selling high (for the right return) wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world.
8. Brandon Phillips – The best defender on the team, but everyone in the organization seems to vastly overestimate his offense.
9. Bronson Arroyo – I was famously wrong when they traded for him. It would be tough to replace what he gives this team.
10/11/12. Homer Bailey/Daryl Thompson/Ramon Ramirez – One of these guys will be the #5 starter next year; one of the others should be the cornerstone of the Holliday trade.
13. Edwin Encarnacion – As much as I hate to say it, a change of scenery would do him a lot of good.
14/15/16. Bill Bray/Jared Burton/Josh Roenicke – No reliever is untouchable ever; these three, though, are a solid foundation in the bullpen.
No Good Reason to Trade/Dump Him, but See What He Brings:
17. Chris Dickerson – I believe 2500 minor league PA more than 120 in the bigs. At worst, though, he’s a solid 4th OF.
18. Ryan Hanigan – I think he deserves to be considered the starting catcher next year.
19. Wilkin Castillo – I know Dusty’s hands were somewhat tied, but why not get this guy some time behind the plate this year?
20. Mikah Owings – I hope that this time next year we’ll be able to say we got something of value for Dunn; I’m not optimistic so far.
21. Danny Herrera – Should be given a chance in ST.
More Valuable To Someone Else
22. Alex Gonzalez – Sorry, AGon. With Mark Ellis at 2B and BP sliding to SS, we don’t need you any more.
23. Jeff Keppinger – Someone will overpay for his scrappiness.
24. Ryan Freel – If he’s healthy.
Role Players Who Won’t Kill The Club
25. Matt Belisle
26. Bobby Livingston
27. Nick Masset
28. Tyler Pelland
29. Adam Rosales
30. Paul Janish
31. Danny Richar
32. Norris Hopper
33. Craig Tatum
So Long, It’s Been Good To Know You
34. Gary Majewski
35. David Weathers
36. Javier Valentin
37. Josh Fogg
38. Andy Phillips
39. Mike Lincoln
Free Agents I’d Ask About
40. Matt Belisle – He’ll ask for, and someone will give him, 3 years. I hope it’s not the Reds.
41. Jerry Hairston – If he can be had for 2 yrs/$5M or less, he’d be worth keeping around. Otherwise, let him walk.
Often wrong, never uncertain.
by sidnancy on Oct 10, 2008 3:49 PM EDT 0 recs
i just dont get it
“10/11/12. Homer Bailey/Daryl Thompson/Ramon Ramirez – One of these guys will be the #5 starter next year; one of the others should be the cornerstone of the Holliday trade.”
you think one of these three (let alone all of them together) will be what it takes to get Holliday? it will take much more than that. think Cueto or Volquez or Bruce just to start the conversation. getting Holliday is just not going to happen.
"for integrity of races and the game" - Dusty Baker
by Charlie Scrabbles on
Oct 10, 2008 4:27 PM EDT
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Nope
you think one of these three (let alone all of them together) will be what it takes to get Holliday?
No, but I think 3 prospects (one a MLB ready starter) would get it done. At least, you’d have to try.
Often wrong, never uncertain.
by sidnancy on
Oct 10, 2008 5:13 PM EDT
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still not buying it
and i responded as such back then. i cant fault you for trying, but Colorado is going to want much more than a former top 10 prospect who hasnt pitched like it in quite a while and two guys who couldnt break the top 50. i think if Holliday is moved, its going to be for a package a bit better than what the Twins got for Santana.
"for integrity of races and the game" - Dusty Baker
by Charlie Scrabbles on
Oct 10, 2008 6:34 PM EDT
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Remember, I'm a car salesman
There’s a difference between what you want and what you can get.
I wouldn’t be shocked if Bailey’s still considered a top-10 prospect (he’s still only 23 next year), and Frazier is top 25. Throw in a ML ready OF (Dickerson), and now you have them thinking. Granted he’s a bit better, but the Reds didn’t exactly get a bushel of talent for Dunn, and ended up paying 1/2 of his remaining salary to boot. They get all of the salary relief now, plus 2 or 3 guys who could make an impact for them no later than ’10.
Holliday’s value to the Rockies goes down every day; on Sept. 1 it’s two draft picks. Meanwhile, it also goes down (though less so) to the team(s) trying to acquire him. The question is, at what point do the two lines intersect?
i think if Holliday is moved, its going to be for a package a bit better than what the Twins got for Santana.
Remember two things:
1. It was the Mets; they traded Scott Kazmir for Victor Zambrano straight up.
2. The market will always value a Santana (this will be the 5th year in a row he’s top-5 in CY voting, with 2 wins) over a Holliday (who may or may not be top-5 in MVP voting this year for the 2nd time in his career).
Often wrong, never uncertain.
by sidnancy on
Oct 10, 2008 9:22 PM EDT
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i see what your thinking
but thinking Holliday is closer to Dunn than Santana is folly. Homer is technically not a prospect anymore, but he was ranked 10th in the International League this year. no way is he considered a top 10 in all the minors.
Frazier is not top 25 either. i wish, but he just isnt. he was 11 in the FSL. he might crack the top 50, but i doubt it.
the Rockies are going to want Cueto or Volquez to start this deal. Homer may be a supplement, but no way he’s the centerpiece. and if we are going to make a deal for Holliday, it needs to be before opening day. the chances this team will be a contender in July to make a deal for him then are slim.
"for integrity of races and the game" - Dusty Baker
by Charlie Scrabbles on
Oct 11, 2008 9:40 AM EDT
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Love the way your thinking Sid
We also need Beltre from Seatle.
by Dave from Louisville on
Oct 10, 2008 10:20 PM EDT
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any thoughts on Andruw Jones?
he may want to be traded if he isnt starting next year for the Dodgers. (hattip to traderumors). he was disappointing in ’07, and worse than Corey Patterson this year. he looks totally washed up, and all at the ripe old age of 31.
but im not sure. what if the Dodgers ate his salary to get rid of him? what if he re-dedicates himself this offseason to prove all us naysayers wrong? could he be part of the answer to outfield question for one year, if the price were right (nothing)? i dont know. call me crazy i guess.
"for integrity of races and the game" - Dusty Baker
by Charlie Scrabbles on Oct 10, 2008 3:53 PM EDT 0 recs
He'd have to lose at least 30 lbs
"Aio, quantitas magna frumentorum est."
by jch24 on
Oct 10, 2008 3:55 PM EDT
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Let me be first
You’re crazy.
The guy is stick-a-fork-in-him done. He hasn’t been an even better than average CF in 4 years, let alone his complete lack of offensive ability. Right now, Drew Stubbs is (1) better, (2) younger, and (3) cheaper. Hell, right now Chris Dickerson is all 3 of those things.
Often wrong, never uncertain.
by sidnancy on
Oct 10, 2008 4:02 PM EDT
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youre probably right sid
youre always sid. but you wouldnt give him a chance, even at no risk? im not saying i would, i mean, come on. dude’s a mess. but the “what if” doesnt at least intrigue you a little?
"for integrity of races and the game" - Dusty Baker
by Charlie Scrabbles on
Oct 10, 2008 4:05 PM EDT
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I think there's too much of a Corey Patterson 2.0 chance to take that risk
"My wife ain't never ran and got me no pheasant." - Fistbands
by BK on
Oct 10, 2008 4:15 PM EDT
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His OBP was better, but...
.158 batting average. .158! He’s also due to make $18.1M. I don’t think the Dodgers are going to eat that kind of money. They’ve already got a Juan Pierre on their bench, and might be in the running for signing Manny, after all he did for them down the stretch. Andruw won’t come for free, and even if he did, I think we’d be getting ripped off.
by Brendanukkah on
Oct 10, 2008 4:22 PM EDT
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Oh yeah.
I was more referring the fact that if he comes here and struggles like he has the past few years, Dusty will probably still play him in CF everyday and bat him leadoff.
"My wife ain't never ran and got me no pheasant." - Fistbands
by BK on
Oct 10, 2008 4:26 PM EDT
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Ah, but there is cost
The risk may be $0, but to acquire him, you’re going to have to give something up (and if you expect the Dodgers to eat all of that money ($18M, plus whatever it takes to waive his no trade clause), that’ll be significant).
With the way he played last year and his injury/performance this year, I’d have to say no. Giving up any type of prospect, or paying him anything over the minimum, is a waste.
Often wrong, never uncertain.
by sidnancy on
Oct 10, 2008 4:32 PM EDT
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I love how he wants to start
As opposed to Ramirez (I think they resign him, where else would he end up?), Ethier, and Kemp.
"Aio, quantitas magna frumentorum est."
by jch24 on
Oct 10, 2008 4:19 PM EDT
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None printable.
Hey Dusty...Are you sure you're OK? You might need an MRI.
by Paul Householder on
Oct 11, 2008 8:18 PM EDT
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And please excuse my dumbidity
But who is Craig Tatum?
"Aio, quantitas magna frumentorum est."
by jch24 on Oct 10, 2008 3:57 PM EDT 0 recs
roster fodder catcher
spent most of his time in AA this year, i think.
"for integrity of races and the game" - Dusty Baker
by Charlie Scrabbles on
Oct 10, 2008 4:02 PM EDT
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Phillips, A.
I could see an argument for keeping Andy Phillips around, but not on the 40-man. Bring him into spring training and let him fight with Castillo and Cabrera (or wait—is he already gone?) for a bench position. We need a RH bench bat with some versatility, and we need guys battling for that spot in March.
Still, that’s back-end of the roster. I’m more concerned about 3B. Not sure EdE can cut it defensively. Is Keppinger a steadier hand, if a less dynamic bat?
by jamesp50014 on Oct 10, 2008 6:40 PM EDT 0 recs
Kepp is no 3B
he is a utility infielder at best. starting him anywhere on this team is a fer sher sign that we will be a big fat loser again.
"for integrity of races and the game" - Dusty Baker
by Charlie Scrabbles on
Oct 10, 2008 6:52 PM EDT
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Adam Rosales can be that man
and BubbaFan can find a new person to join the cadre. How can you not like a ballplayer who went to Western Michigan?
...because there's already someone posing as Jacob Brumfield
by Cy Schourek on
Oct 10, 2008 7:41 PM EDT
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He is worthless
If APhillips is on the team we will lose again
by Dave from Louisville on
Oct 10, 2008 10:23 PM EDT
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Nice analysis
I think it’s probably best for all concerned if Andy Phillips moves on. Clearly, he’s not going to get much playing time as long as Dusty Baker is filling out the lineup card. (Congrats on the new baby, Andy, and hope you find a team that better fits your talents next year.)
They’ve already said Bako’s not coming back, but he’s one on your “Bye Bye” list that I wouldn’t mind seeing returning. Especially if Hanigan is traded. Not because he’s all that great, but because catching talent is so thin these days. Chad Moeller played 40 games for the Yankees this season, fer crissakes.
All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?
by BubbaFan on Oct 10, 2008 6:51 PM EDT 0 recs
I don't think Hanigan will be traded
They’ve pretty much said that he’s going to be on the big league club next year, and if they make a trade or sign a FA catcher, I think he’ll be the backup. If Hanigan ends up being the starter, Castillo would make a nice backup. Sure, Toothache played 40 games for the Yankees, but they didn’t make the playoffs either ;)
"My wife ain't never ran and got me no pheasant." - Fistbands
by BK on
Oct 10, 2008 6:54 PM EDT
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Yeah, but...
…Moeller would not have played 40 games for the Yankees if there were any other options.
All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?
by BubbaFan on
Oct 10, 2008 7:00 PM EDT
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Updated top 20 Farm System
Everyone seems pretty knowledgable here and I was wondering if anyone had (or would like to take a stab at) an updated top 20 prospect list for the Reds after the 2008 season that would include recent international signings, like Duran and Rodriguez, 2008 draft draft picks, and the guys that came over in the dunn and griffey deals. Thanks alot for your time
by Swedish Meatball on Oct 13, 2008 8:32 AM EDT 0 recs
check out
www.redsminorleagues.com He is currently working on a top 40 and it should be out soon.
"for integrity of races and the game" - Dusty Baker
by Charlie Scrabbles on
Oct 13, 2008 8:40 AM EDT
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