Community Projection: Jay Bruce

by JD Arney on Jan 7, 2008 12:57 PM EST in News

I think we had some fun with these community projections last year, so I figured we would do them again for 2008.

Kicking things off will be Jay Bruce, timely since he had a profile piece written on him by John Fay yesterday:

Jay Bruce was in Cincinnati to accept Baseball America's minor-league player of the year award.
He wore his Sunday best - tailored suit, white shirt, tie. Adam Dunn jumped on the chance to apply the needle.
"Why didn't you just wear your normal stuff?" Dunn asked. "Why you gotta try to impress everyone?"
"I'm getting the minor-league player of the year award," Bruce replied.
"When I got my award, I just wore my usual stuff," Dunn said.
"Was it for the Reds organization or all of baseball?" Bruce said.
Touché.

Bruce is pretty much a can't miss now to be a solid regular, the real question is just how good he'll be. The ceiling for the guy is higher than anyone the Reds have had come along since Adam Dunn.

Which as an aside, and I hate doing this because I think the steroid what if game is pretty dumb, but isn't Adam Dunn a little more valuable and impressive now? Unless you think there's even a 1% chance of him having used something (I guess anything is possible).

But anyway, I think Jay Bruce is going to put up some pretty impressive numbers in the next few years. He hit a ton of doubles last year, and it's not crazy to think some of those might leave the year once he finishes filling out. 40+ home runs a year doesn't seem impossible, and I'm sure playing in Great American will benefit him. But that is eventually. In 2008 he might struggle, and it's hard to tell how much playing time he'll get.

I'm going to project him at .270/.320/.510, with 19 home runs, 45 RBI, and 4 stolen bases, and make that in about 105 games. I could see him surprising me with the average, but with the strikeout numbers he put up in the minors I could see him struggling to make contact a little bit. I also could see the Reds starting him off at AAA and then limiting him against lefthanders once he is up with the team.

Leave your projection for the same stats as above (AVG/OBP/SLG / HR / RBI / SB / Games) (and add commentary saying why you feel that way) and we'll get them accumulated and tallied up.

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Comments

First!

Put in a quarter...Turn out the lights...Magic Fingers makes ya feel alright!

by chandrathan on Jan 7, 2008 1:21 PM EST reply actions

Now Jay Bruce will put up no stats...

He will have a season ending injury during warmups before his first game...

And you all know why.

Put in a quarter...Turn out the lights...Magic Fingers makes ya feel alright!

by chandrathan on Jan 7, 2008 1:22 PM EST up reply actions

Bruce

I'm concerned about the strikeouts for Bruce, especially because Alex Gordon struggled so much last season. Obviously assuming one player's struggles are indicative of another's is faulty, but I am concerned that Bruce hasn't shown control of the strike zone like Gordon did in his one minor league season. Bruce's walk rate (8.9%) and his strikeout rate (25.4%) are both worse than Gordon's (12.9% and 23.3% respectively). The advantage for next season that I see for Bruce over Gordon in 2007 is that Bruce has more professional seasoning. It's likely that Gordon could have used some time in Triple-A (he had one minor league season spent in AA). I think this will favor Bruce and he'll be less likely to have quite the struggles that Gordon have, but I don't expect him to put up Ryan Braun type numbers this year either.

So, long story short, I'm guessing a .260/.315/.465 line with 15 HR, 39 RBI, and 2 SB in 115 games. I think he'll start the season with the team, struggle the first month and be sent to Louisville to get his confidence back. He'll come back in June and be a mix of good and bad at the plate for the rest of the season.

I'm not superstitious...but I am a little stitious.

by Slyde on Jan 7, 2008 1:26 PM EST reply actions

Jay Bruce agrees about the Ks,

per his blog (HT to RL Nation/RHM).

Also, I don't see Ryan Braun putting up Ryan Braun type numbers this year.

by ken on Jan 7, 2008 5:25 PM EST up reply actions

quotes from Jay on his blog......

"We definetly have a really strong core of a team already....plus the younger guys that are coming up.....it should mean good things for years to come for the nasty Nati."

"I do what I can for my homies."

"I REALLY need to be more patient, and quit striking out so d@%n much haha."

"The day I stop having fun I'm quitting."

by jacob brumfield on Jan 8, 2008 10:16 AM EST up reply actions

Some entertaining shit at Yardbarker

From Dontrelle's blog:

Be well and give something from the heart and eat up . And if u dont have a idea of what to get, get a tigers hat hahahahha.

your boy
d-nice

I think Zach is a professional baseball player.

by ken on Jan 8, 2008 3:35 PM EST up reply actions

Bruce

avg - Obp - slugging % - HR - RBI - SB - games

0.290 0.345 - 0.510 ---- 22 - 70 - 6 - 125

Why? why not?

I think he moved from High A to AAA with little drop off in his production. I attribute that to good bat speed and good pitch recognition.

Yes, he will have a lot of strikeouts in the ML, if he gets to play 125 games. But he will also produce.

By 2010, I see him being a left-handed Matt Holliday type player (ala 2007).

Bring it on!! Or play Norris Hopper; you're choice Wayne.

Yogi Berra said: "predictions are tough, especially when they are about the future".

by Lonesome George on Jan 7, 2008 1:46 PM EST reply actions

I'm an optimist

285/360/500 with 24 hrs 75 rbi's 9 sb's in 140 games. I think he will either win the job outright or snatch it a way from freel/hopper by early May. I think he will place in the top 3 in ROY candidates with sidekick Votto. I think he will by June sart to cut down on his strike outs and start walking more. We have a got phenom to enjoy for the next 6 years. I wonder how exciting it was to watch griffey develope his first years. I think us Reds fans will actualize it from 2008-2013. Division this year... World series champs in 09'

by gocolts on Jan 7, 2008 1:57 PM EST reply actions

I'm thinking

.287/.332/.514 23 HRs/80 RBI/120 games

He hasn't slowed down through three levels of the minors. These numbers are a few ticks below what he was able to produce last year in the minors. I think he'll be really good. Really soon.

by Lakeman on Jan 7, 2008 2:41 PM EST reply actions

Forgot

5 stolen bases.

by Lakeman on Jan 7, 2008 2:42 PM EST up reply actions

.200 12HRs 12RBI 51 1/2 Ks 133BB

I only use HGH in the postseason, but everything else is the real me-Mike Stantons Conscience

by Zach K on Jan 7, 2008 3:37 PM EST reply actions

Seriously?

If this is seriously what you think, that's fine, but if you are kidding then come back with a real prediction because outliers like this will kind of screw up the community projection.

We are all in the gutter, but some of us are looking at the stars. --Oscar Wilde

by JD Arney on Jan 7, 2008 6:34 PM EST up reply actions

One would think 51 1/2 Ks would be an indicator...

...of the seriousness of that.

by Geki on Jan 7, 2008 6:37 PM EST up reply actions

Skimmmed right over that

But come on, the internet is serious business.

We are all in the gutter, but some of us are looking at the stars. --Oscar Wilde

by JD Arney on Jan 7, 2008 11:35 PM EST up reply actions

I thought the interent was..

..a series of tubes.

"Breakfast, broke it fast. She was in my English class. Asked for notes, rocked my boat. Jenifa..."

by Fat Vegas Alan on Jan 8, 2008 3:20 PM EST up reply actions

Could have been

A typo, you know. It is Zach, after all.

At least it wasn't Grady Little.

by Paul Householder on Jan 8, 2008 12:37 AM EST up reply actions

.270/.330/.480, 7 HR, 30 RBI, 4 SB, 75 G

I don't see regular playing time for Bruce as long as Dusty has Freel and Hopper on the roster. I can also see management making sure that his arb clock isn't started for another year.

by ken on Jan 7, 2008 5:22 PM EST reply actions

Don't forget Alex Gordon

My projection for Bruce is
.247/.314/.411 15HR, 60RBI

For anyone who cares, that's the same line Alex Gordon, the 2006 Minor League Player of the year and supposed can't miss 2007 ROY candidate finished the last season with. And Gordon was several years older than Bruce last season.

by jmcclain19 on Jan 7, 2008 5:41 PM EST reply actions

True

But I still think Gordon is going to be a heck of a player. If Bruce had a year like that I'd be disappointed, but not crushed.

We are all in the gutter, but some of us are looking at the stars. --Oscar Wilde

by JD Arney on Jan 7, 2008 6:35 PM EST up reply actions

.265/.335/.500, 18 HR, 55 RBI, 6 SB, 100 G

by Man Mountain on Jan 7, 2008 6:46 PM EST reply actions

.284/.350/.574 30HR 90RBI 10SB 113 games

this boy is gonna be a world-shaker.

is it April yet?

by Charlie Scrabbles on Jan 7, 2008 7:11 PM EST reply actions

Zach already has take a Dunnesk liking to Bruce

My guess is .280/26HRS/65RBI/7SB in 110 games. Most of his production will come in the middle of the season.

"Statistics are like a bikini. What they reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal is vital." - Aaron Levenstein

by Madville on Jan 7, 2008 7:17 PM EST reply actions

I'll balance out Zach

I think he'll match A-Rod's age 21 season:

.358 / .414 / .631 / 36 / 123 / 15 / 146

Though maybe I should shave a few games and RBIs off that. I'm guessing the Reds do with Bruce what they did with Bailey last year. Start in him Louisville, then call him up in June. For clock reasons.

All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?

by BubbaFan on Jan 7, 2008 7:47 PM EST reply actions

i think it's safe to say that zach's

'projection' as is won't count, even though we were all wildly entertained by it. so you might want to try again, especially considering there are not 146 regular-season games after june 1 :)

Marty may have a shirt on, but Billy Beane just ripped his off and is squeezing his nipples. - Brendan's ukkah

by boobs on Jan 7, 2008 11:13 PM EST up reply actions

There could be...

...if we get a like 40 rainouts in April and May.

Global warming and stuff, ya know.

"Breakfast, broke it fast. She was in my English class. Asked for notes, rocked my boat. Jenifa..."

by Fat Vegas Alan on Jan 8, 2008 3:26 PM EST up reply actions

Hmmmm

.302/.345/.515/21 HR/67 RBI/6 SB/117 G/

I think Jay starts out hot until teams make adjustments on him and he slumps at mid season and starts platooning for a while. Then a late season injury to Jr gets him back to playing full time and he finishes on fire to crack the .300 BA plateau.

by Ron41 on Jan 7, 2008 8:06 PM EST reply actions

i suck at projections

but here we go....

.268/.351/.560/17 HR/ 60 RBI/ 108 Games

The Dusty path to the World Series!

by justin0070000 on Jan 7, 2008 8:19 PM EST reply actions

moving through the minors

is anyone else worried about the speed bruce moved through the minors? not to say he won't be awesome eventually, but it doesn't seem like he ever spent enough time at any level for pitchers to figure him out and make him readjust. we know he's skilled, but how well does he adapt?

Party on, Wayne.

by davemaher on Jan 8, 2008 1:09 AM EST reply actions

I'm not too concerned

Dunn did the same thing, though he did spend two years in A-ball, but once he moved to double-A, he moved quickly and was in the Majors by the end of the year.

Anyway, my point is that Bruce will need to make adjustments at the Major League level, but that may be where it needs to happen. He's likely just one of those guys that is so much better than the others in the minors that the only place he'll be truly challenged and forced to adjust is in the Majors.

I think that's why some of us expect him to struggle some next year. The hole in his game appears to be plate discipline right now, and until he starts facing pitchers who can more precisely hit their spots, he may not have to make any adjustments to get better.

I'm not superstitious...but I am a little stitious.

by Slyde on Jan 8, 2008 10:04 AM EST up reply actions

thanks

Good insight, and I'm honored to have my first response to any comment I've made here be from you, Slyde.

Party on, Wayne.

by davemaher on Jan 9, 2008 1:28 AM EST up reply actions

I'm honored that you are honored

But I wouldn't want to take the honor away from Red Menace. He's much more forward thinking that I am. It only took me a year to catch up.

I'm not superstitious...but I am a little stitious.

by Slyde on Jan 9, 2008 8:17 AM EST up reply actions

amnesia

Hey, totally forgot about that! Good the Reds didn't sign Trot Nixon, eh?

Party on, Wayne.

by davemaher on Jan 9, 2008 10:57 AM EST up reply actions

My early take on it

First, let me say I don't think he will fail to see lefties, as his OPS in AAA against lefties was actually better than it was against righties last year and still pretty good against lefties everywhere else last year.

.275/.340/.515. Lots of strikeouts. Lots of extra base hits.

www.redsminorleagues.com

by dougdirt on Jan 8, 2008 1:17 AM EST reply actions

I'm stealing George's numbers..

Well, for the most part.

avg - Obp - slugging % - HR - RBI - SB - games

0.288 0.345 - 0.510 ---- 28 - 76 - 6 - 125

I do think he will have his share of strikeouts.. I hope him and Dunn can work together to get those numbers down.. Is Jacoby still the hitting coach? If they can put Jr., Bruce and Dunn 3-4-5 in the lineup it is going to be feast or famine..

-Wake me when it is aught eight.

by snohio on Jan 8, 2008 12:16 PM EST reply actions

no copying off your neighbor

This is a closed book test.

I'm not superstitious...but I am a little stitious.

by Slyde on Jan 8, 2008 1:04 PM EST up reply actions

I am freakin' flattered

that anyone would pay any attention to anything I said (or posted).
Criminy, I hope you don't have a social disease or anything.

Yogi Berra said: "predictions are tough, especially when they are about the future".

by Lonesome George on Jan 8, 2008 5:04 PM EST up reply actions

I changed my answer.

(a little bit.) I am sure actually copying and pasting didn't help either.. I'm just too lazy to come up with all of the secondary numbers.. I am a network administrator - that should tell you something.

-Wake me when it is aught eight.

by snohio on Jan 9, 2008 9:38 AM EST up reply actions

If you are anything like the people in my office

it means you are sending out emails all day explaining why I can't access my server. How about fewer emails and more solutions?

I'm not superstitious...but I am a little stitious.

by Slyde on Jan 9, 2008 10:03 AM EST up reply actions

Bottom rung..

I am now on the bottom rung of a very large corporate environment.. Actually I am being "demoted" to promotion monkey - copying files and settings to the production environment by following the developers instructions. But hey, the pay is still good..

-Wake me when it is aught eight.

by snohio on Jan 9, 2008 10:23 AM EST up reply actions

Hey now, I take offense

Didn't I help you fix your damned wireless? Or was that someone else? And remember, "Meddle not in the affairs of the Systems Administrator; for you are crunchy and taste good with ketchup." :)

by jch24 on Jan 9, 2008 10:34 AM EST up reply actions

I wasn't talking about you

I meant other system administrators. I'm sure you guys are top notch. :)

And yes, you did help me out with my internet connection, so I guess I'm forever indebted to you. If you ever need help with ETL work to load healthcare data into a decision support system, lemme know.

I'm not superstitious...but I am a little stitious.

by Slyde on Jan 9, 2008 11:00 AM EST up reply actions

.289/.365/.504/18 HR/97 RBI/9 SB/147 G/

Bruce will win the job outright in Spring Training then show mainly doubles power all season. Dusty will rave about his hustle and playingthegametherightwayiness and point to his 3B(12), A(11), and EWPP(8.4). The strikeouts will keep his avg sub-.300, and the skyline chili will keep his SBs in the singal didgits.

by jacob brumfield on Jan 8, 2008 12:58 PM EST reply actions

the rumor is he's a goldstar man

im willing to let bygones be bygones.

is it April yet?

by Charlie Scrabbles on Jan 8, 2008 5:08 PM EST up reply actions

Dem salads are goood!

I'm not superstitious...but I am a little stitious.

by Slyde on Jan 8, 2008 5:15 PM EST up reply actions

Jim Callis on our boy Volquez

He's not a big fan of Thomans Alvan Edinson:

Is it fair to assume that Edinson Volquez (if he still qualified as a prospect) wouldn't have been ranked among the Reds' Big Four prospects (Jay Bruce, Homer Bailey, Joey Votto, Johnny Cueto) but ahead of Drew Stubbs? Would Volquez be a viable candidate for the Top 100 Prospects list?
Erick Metzger
Columbus, Ohio

Volquez has exceeded 50 major league innings, so he's no longer a prospect in our book. He definitely wouldn't have ranked ahead of Bruce, Bailey, Votto or Cueto, arguably the best foursome of prospects in any farm system right now. He probably would have settled in at No. 5, ahead of Stubbs, though I'm not the biggest Volquez fan in the world. I wouldn't have advocated him making the Top 100.
Volquez throws hard and has a nice changeup, but he never has shown a reliable curveball in the big leagues and his control and command always have been spotty. I see him more as a classic tease, a guy who can light up radar guns but never will be the frontline starter his velocity suggests he might become.
Trading Josh Hamilton to get Volquez made sense for the Reds, however. They had the second-worst ERA in the National League last year and more outfielders than they knew what to do with. Now Cincinnati has an opening for Bruce to play in the majors and another candidate for its rotation.
Considering that the Rangers have been on a perpetual search for pitching, however, shouldn't it tell us something that they were willing to part with Volquez?

I'm not superstitious...but I am a little stitious.

by Slyde on Jan 8, 2008 5:20 PM EST reply actions

RE:

"Considering that the Rangers have been on a perpetual search for pitching, however, shouldn't it tell us something that they were willing to part with Volquez?"

Could be that the Rangers see the extraordinary upside of Hobbs IF he stays healthy etc. And that maybe a change of scenery will do some good for Volquez.If he can throw strikes (if)and keep the team in the game for 5or 6 innings, he'll be worth the trade.

"Statistics are like a bikini. What they reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal is vital." - Aaron Levenstein

by Madville on Jan 8, 2008 6:24 PM EST reply actions

who wants to project the NH primary?

Obama-39%
Edwards-28%
Clinton-24%
Richardson-7%
Kuchinich-1%
Other-.9%
Gravel.1%

The Dusty path to the World Series!

by justin0070000 on Jan 8, 2008 7:10 PM EST reply actions

I wish I had set up an elaborate pool before Iowa

Oh well. I've got Eunice Kennedy Shriver and Harold Pinter in my death pool so I'm sitting pretty.

by Red Menace on Jan 8, 2008 7:14 PM EST up reply actions

i had both norman mailer and kurt vonnegut

i won a new bike. hoorah for literature!

is it April yet?

by Charlie Scrabbles on Jan 8, 2008 8:15 PM EST up reply actions

It's early yet

But it's looking like you're way wrong about Edwards.

All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?

by BubbaFan on Jan 8, 2008 9:50 PM EST up reply actions

yep

Fucking Hillary Clinton. If that bitch stands in the way of Barack Obama...

The Dusty path to the World Series!

by justin0070000 on Jan 8, 2008 10:12 PM EST up reply actions

...he'll get Biden to push her around...

...and Edwards to call and appologize about it...

by jacob brumfield on Jan 8, 2008 10:40 PM EST up reply actions

I dunno, man.

Brotha's already got the heavy lifting taken care of.

"Breakfast, broke it fast. She was in my English class. Asked for notes, rocked my boat. Jenifa..."

by Fat Vegas Alan on Jan 8, 2008 10:54 PM EST up reply actions

I dunno, man.

Brotha's already got the heavy lifting taken care of.

"Breakfast, broke it fast. She was in my English class. Asked for notes, rocked my boat. Jenifa..."

by Fat Vegas Alan on Jan 8, 2008 10:56 PM EST up reply actions

The pollsters were so wrong on this

But Hillary's from NY, which is not far from NH. And most of the colleges are still on break, so the young voters Obama brings in may not have been there to vote.

I'm glad. Maybe now the rest of us will get to vote.

All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?

by BubbaFan on Jan 8, 2008 11:32 PM EST up reply actions

ohio is on march 4

so we don't matter anyway. I just want Obama to glide into the White House. He is so sexy.

The Dusty path to the World Series!

by justin0070000 on Jan 9, 2008 12:18 AM EST up reply actions

new prediction

Edwards doesn't drop out, gets about 1,000 delagates, Hillary and Obama get the rest, and there is a wide fucking open convention. Which would be really cool, because i am a political historian, and this would be somthing for the fucking ages. Plus I am going to the Democratic National Convention in Denver in August with the Washington Center. I think the Red's are even in town then. But I am guessing, even if i do have time, that tickets will be hard to come by.

The Dusty path to the World Series!

by justin0070000 on Jan 9, 2008 12:42 AM EST up reply actions

Obama Girl, is it you?

All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?

by BubbaFan on Jan 9, 2008 6:55 AM EST up reply actions

I'm insulted

My grammar and syntax are much more polished than Justin's.

bringin' sexy back...to the White House!

by ObamaGirl on Jan 9, 2008 7:35 AM EST up reply actions

Didn't help Guiliani

Though volunteers wearing Yankee caps in NH couldn't have helped.

by ken on Jan 9, 2008 2:40 AM EST up reply actions

haha

Yeah he barely beat my man Ron Paul...

I only use HGH in the postseason, but everything else is the real me-Mike Stantons Conscience

by Zach K on Jan 9, 2008 8:30 AM EST up reply actions

re

i dont think new york had anything to do with new hampshire; as you know, hillary's not from new york, anyway. even without college students, barack was winning new hampshire polls by about nine points in the days leading up to voting.

kos speculates that the main reason for Hillary's upset -- which was really quite enormous considering the polls -- might have been backlash over the backlash over her crying incident. that makes sense to me, considering barack beat hillary among women in iowa then lost among women by double-digits in NH. hillary does consistently face a double standard when it comes to character, and most people don't even realize they're treating her differently. if she's stern, she's being a bitch. if she giggles, she's being a little girl. if she shows emotion, she's calculating and manipulative. she can't win when it comes to being human, and it's very possible that the crying incident pushed new hampshire women over the edge.

Marty may have a shirt on, but Billy Beane just ripped his off and is squeezing his nipples. - Brendan's ukkah

by boobs on Jan 9, 2008 12:35 PM EST up reply actions

or as

Jesse Jackson Jr. just said on msnbc: "There were tears that melted the Granite State." Wow.

Marty may have a shirt on, but Billy Beane just ripped his off and is squeezing his nipples. - Brendan's ukkah

by boobs on Jan 9, 2008 12:49 PM EST up reply actions

Takes me back

Bill Clinton: "No, thank you, Lisa. For teaching kids everywhere a valuable lesson: If things don't go your way, just keep complaining until your dreams come true."

Marge: "That's a pretty lousy lesson."

Bill Clinton: "Hey, I'm a pretty lousy president."

by Lakeman on Jan 9, 2008 1:29 PM EST up reply actions

I could see that

Especially since the "Live Free or Die" state loves to confound the conventional wisdom.

Howard Fineman at MSNBC thinks many women sympathized with Hillary for her anger as much as her vulnerability:

...While her angry outburst in the ABC News debate made some men think of shrewish ex-wives, it seemed justified to many women, who thought she had reason to be peeved.
In a workplace context, Obama may have reminded women of underqualified hotshots who come along and get the big job with less experience because they're cooler and have more rapport with the boss and are, after all, men.

All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?

by BubbaFan on Jan 9, 2008 5:44 PM EST up reply actions

The fact that Howard Fineman

is reduced to this sort of armchair psychologizing is truly depressing. It really puts a time stamp on our era.

by Man Mountain on Jan 9, 2008 9:38 PM EST up reply actions

i think the fact that you used the phrase

"time stamp" really puts a time stamp on our era.

is it April yet?

by Charlie Scrabbles on Jan 9, 2008 10:05 PM EST up reply actions

No era will ever be our era

by Man Mountain on Jan 9, 2008 10:39 PM EST up reply actions

if peeing your pants is cool

consider me Miles Davis

Marty may have a shirt on, but Billy Beane just ripped his off and is squeezing his nipples. - Brendan's ukkah

by boobs on Jan 9, 2008 11:09 PM EST up reply actions

kid can't even read

tuh tuh tuhday junior!

www.redsminorleagues.com

by dougdirt on Jan 9, 2008 11:25 PM EST up reply actions

Been meaning..

I've been meaning to watch this again for the past couple of days.. Thanks - now it is imperative that I do.. Maybe when the basement is finished.. 2 weeks..

Oh yeah! DirecTV coming in next week. I'll get my Reds in HD games on FSN now. Who's coming?

-Wake me when it is aught eight.

by snohio on Jan 10, 2008 9:45 AM EST up reply actions