I'm concerned about the strikeouts for Bruce, especially because Alex Gordon struggled so much last season.  Obviously assuming one player's struggles are indicative of another's is faulty, but I am concerned that Bruce hasn't shown control of the strike zone like Gordon did in his one minor league season.  Bruce's walk rate (8.9%) and his strikeout rate (25.4%) are both worse than Gordon's (12.9% and 23.3% respectively).  The advantage for next season that I see for Bruce over Gordon in 2007 is that Bruce has more professional seasoning.  It's likely that Gordon could have used some time in Triple-A (he had one minor league season spent in AA).  I think this will favor Bruce and he'll be less likely to have quite the struggles that Gordon have, but I don't expect him to put up Ryan Braun type numbers this year either.

So, long story short, I'm guessing a .260/.315/.465 line with 15 HR, 39 RBI, and 2 SB in 115 games.  I think he'll start the season with the team, struggle the first month and be sent to Louisville to get his confidence back.  He'll come back in June and be a mix of good and bad at the plate for the rest of the season.

.287/.332/.514    23 HRs/80 RBI/120 games

He hasn't slowed down through three levels of the minors.  These numbers are a few ticks below what he was able to produce last year in the minors.  I think he'll be really good.  Really soon.

I don't see regular playing time for Bruce as long as Dusty has Freel and Hopper on the roster.  I can also see management making sure that his arb clock isn't started for another year.

My projection for Bruce is
.247/.314/.411 15HR, 60RBI

For anyone who cares, that's the same line Alex Gordon, the 2006 Minor League Player of the year and supposed can't miss 2007 ROY candidate finished the last season with. And Gordon was several years older than Bruce last season.

this boy is gonna be a world-shaker.

My guess is .280/26HRS/65RBI/7SB in 110 games. Most of his production will come in the middle of the season.

I think he'll match A-Rod's age 21 season:

.358 / .414 / .631 / 36 / 123 / 15 / 146

Though maybe I should shave a few games and RBIs off that.  I'm guessing the Reds do with Bruce what they did with Bailey last year.  Start in him Louisville, then call him up in June.  For clock reasons.
 

First, let me say I don't think he will fail to see lefties, as his OPS in AAA against lefties was actually better than it was against righties last year and still pretty good against lefties everywhere else last year.

.275/.340/.515. Lots of strikeouts. Lots of extra base hits.

Well, for the most part.

avg  -   Obp - slugging % -  HR - RBI - SB - games

0.288  0.345 - 0.510 ----    28 -  76 -  6 -  125

I do think he will have his share of strikeouts.. I hope him and Dunn can work together to get those numbers down.. Is Jacoby still the hitting coach? If they can put Jr., Bruce and Dunn 3-4-5 in the lineup it is going to be feast or famine..  

Bruce will win the job outright in Spring Training then show mainly doubles power all season.  Dusty will rave about his hustle and playingthegametherightwayiness and point to his 3B(12), A(11), and EWPP(8.4). The strikeouts will keep his avg sub-.300, and the skyline chili will keep his SBs in the singal didgits.  

He's not a big fan of Thomans Alvan Edinson:

Is it fair to assume that Edinson Volquez (if he still qualified as a prospect) wouldn't have been ranked among the Reds' Big Four prospects (Jay Bruce, Homer Bailey, Joey Votto, Johnny Cueto) but ahead of Drew Stubbs? Would Volquez be a viable candidate for the Top 100 Prospects list?

      Erick Metzger
      Columbus, Ohio

Volquez has exceeded 50 major league innings, so he's no longer a prospect in our book. He definitely wouldn't have ranked ahead of Bruce, Bailey, Votto or Cueto, arguably the best foursome of prospects in any farm system right now. He probably would have settled in at No. 5, ahead of Stubbs, though I'm not the biggest Volquez fan in the world. I wouldn't have advocated him making the Top 100.

Volquez throws hard and has a nice changeup, but he never has shown a reliable curveball in the big leagues and his control and command always have been spotty. I see him more as a classic tease, a guy who can light up radar guns but never will be the frontline starter his velocity suggests he might become.

Trading Josh Hamilton to get Volquez made sense for the Reds, however. They had the second-worst ERA in the National League last year and more outfielders than they knew what to do with. Now Cincinnati has an opening for Bruce to play in the majors and another candidate for its rotation.

Considering that the Rangers have been on a perpetual search for pitching, however, shouldn't it tell us something that they were willing to part with Volquez?

"Considering that the Rangers have been on a perpetual search for pitching, however, shouldn't it tell us something that they were willing to part with Volquez?"

Could be that the Rangers see the extraordinary upside of Hobbs IF he stays healthy etc. And that maybe a change of scenery will do some good for Volquez.If he can throw strikes (if)and keep the team in the game for 5or 6 innings, he'll be worth the trade.

"I've never played a 162-game season," he said. "That's another whole month."

I like that statement. Throw the kid in center and lets go.

avg  -   Obp - slugging % -  HR - RBI - SB - games

0.275  0.333 - 0.520 ----    25 -  80 -  10 -  120