Reds sign Affeldt.

by Thundering Turtle on Jan 19, 2008 4:21 PM EST Comment 82 comments

From Rosenthal:

The Reds, striking a bargain with one of the top remaining free-agent pitchers, have reached preliminary agreement with left-hander Jeremy Affeldt on a one-year, $3 million contract, according to major-league sources.
The deal, pending a physical, will be the Reds' third significant pitching acquisition of the off-season. The team previously signed free-agent closer Francisco Cordero and acquired right-hander Edinson Volquez in a trade with the Rangers.

Affeldt, 28, will compete for a spot in the Reds' rotation after spending all of last season as a reliever with the Rockies. He has started in the past and the Reds' far greater need is in the rotation, where they are unsettled beyond right-handers Aaron Harang and Bronson Arroyo.

If Affeldt fails as a starter, the Reds always could return him to the bullpen. The team currently envisions right-hander David Weathers setting up for Cordero and already features three left-handed relievers -- Mike Stanton, Bill Bray and Jon Coutlangus.

Either way, Affeldt stands to earn significant performance bonuses in his new contract, one source said. The deal, however, is for a much shorter term than the four years he originally desired.

Two older left-handed relievers received multi-year, free-agent contracts -- J.C. Romero, 31, signed a three-year, $12 million deal with the Phillies, while Ron Mahay, 36, signed a two-year, $8 million deal with the Royals.

Affeldt enjoyed a long-awaited breakthrough with the Rockies last season, going 4-3 with a 3.51 ERA in 59 innings. He is 25-27 with a 4.74 ERA in 286 career appearances, including 42 starts.

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ok

not overwhelmed, but should be a decent addition, and it's hard not to like the one-year contract.

Marty may have a shirt on, but Billy Beane just ripped his off and is squeezing his nipples. - Brendan's ukkah

by boobs on Jan 19, 2008 4:31 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

I'm okay with this

I like the one year contract. I also like to think that if he can't make the rotation, that perhaps he would at least be used before one Mr. Michael Stanton out of the pen.

by 3 Fast 3 Furious on Jan 19, 2008 4:35 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

this actually surprised me

I didn't think we'd be smart enough to sign him, and to only a one year deal! I think he should stay in the 'pen though. Especially if it would push a certain fat 40-year-old one step farther down the rung. Or off the team.

by beasleymachine on Jan 19, 2008 4:36 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

damn i was a minute too slow

I got beat to the stanton punch

by beasleymachine on Jan 19, 2008 4:38 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

RE: the Stanton punch

HEY! KOOL AID!!!!

"You can't roll a joint on an iPod." ~Shelby Lynne

by Fat Vegas Alan on Jan 21, 2008 4:57 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

good deal

in fact, i think its a great deal. this is exactly what Wayner should be doing. i'll give 'em an atta boy. i never thought we had a shot at affeldt, considering all the 4-year deal bullshit we heard. we needed cheap rotation depth, and thats what we got. the signing isnt exactly exciting, but its exciting to know Wayner didnt fuck it up again.

is it April yet?

by Charlie Scrabbles on Jan 19, 2008 5:49 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

I like it.

One-year at $3 million is a heck of a good deal. I'm not sure I want to see him starting, though. His success rate in that role hasn't been pretty. If his presence allows the youngsters to develop, though, then OK I guees. I think he improves the bullpen quite a bit.

Check out jaffeldt.com. Sorry, I don't know how to do a link. There is a blog on there. And, yes, as you might expect from a Rockie, Affeldt is a Christian.

He wore No. 41 last year. That's Nuxhall's old number, so he'd better be good this season, huh?

We Are ... Marshall!

by Thundering Turtle on Jan 19, 2008 5:59 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Link

(To anyone who doesn't know how to do a link, all you do is type this:

where "http://jaffeldt.com/" is the web site and Link is the text you want to show up. Also, obviously, you can just copy and paste the url and it will show up in red, like that one right there.

Marty may have a shirt on, but Billy Beane just ripped his off and is squeezing his nipples. - Brendan's ukkah

by boobs on Jan 19, 2008 6:14 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Thanks,

I like learning new things from boobs.

We Are ... Marshall!

by Thundering Turtle on Jan 19, 2008 6:22 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

jaffeldt.com

the blog only has one post, and it's dated 2-6-06. If you listen closely, you can actually hear crickets.

by Brian B on Jan 20, 2008 10:57 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

the post

excuse me for reposting the post, but it needs to be said:

TO ALL THAT ARE READING THIS I WANT YOU TO KNOW THAT IT IS MY FIRST ENTRY EVER SO FORGIVE ME IF IT IS NOT VERY GOOD OR UP TO PAR FOR PRO BLOGGERS OUT THERE.

THIS TIME OF YEAR IS CRAZY FOR ME AND MY FAMILY. WE ARE GETTING PREPARED FOR SPRING TRAINING THAT IS STARTING IN 2 WEEKS. WE ARE READY FOR A NEW SEASON THE OFF SEASON WENT BY TO FAST BUT WE ARE EXCITED ABOUT THE NEW SEASON AND THE BLESSINGS IN STORE FOR US. I AM NOT ONLY ENTERING INTO A NEW SEASON IN BASEBALL BUT HAVE ALREADY ENTERED INTO A NEW SEASON SPRIRITUALY. I JUST GOT BACK FROM A TRIP TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WHERE I JOINED A TEAM CALL "THE JOSEPH'S COMPANY". THEY ARE A BRANCH MINISTRY FROM THE "THE INTERNATIONAL HOUSE OF PRAYER" IN KANSAS CITY. THEY GO INTO CITIES AND TEACH ON CHRISTIANITY IN THE MARKETPLACE. ENCOURAGING MARKET PLACE CHRISTIANS THAT THERE ROLE IN THE KINGDOM AS A MARKETPLACE WORKER IS JUST AS IMPORTANT AS PREACHERS AND PRIESTS WHO WORK WITHIN THE CHURCH FAMILIES. WE WHEN IN TO TRAIN ON PRAYER AND REPRESENTATION OF CHRIST IN THE MARKETPLACE AND CREATING A ENVIRONMENT TO BRING THE LOST TO CHRIST WITHIN THE WORK PLACE. IT WAS AWESOME. I THOUGHT I WENT THERE TO HELP AND INSTEAD I ENDED UP LEARNING AND BEING TOTALLY UNDONE BY OUR CREATOR. I LEARNED ABOUT HE A.C.T.S. PRAYER MODEL AND IT HAS TOTALLY TURNED MY WORLD UPSIDE DOWN. THE "A" STANDS FOR ADORATION, THE "C" STANDS FOR CONFESSION, THE "T" STANDS FOR THANKSGIVING, AND THE "S" STANDS FOR SUPPLICATION. THE INTIMACY I HAVE COME TO ENJOY WITH OUR GOD AND SAVIOR HAVE PUT ME ON NEW LEVELS WITH MY BEST FRIEND THAT I THOUGHT I WOULD NEVER EXPERIENCE. WHAT AN AWESOME GOD WE SERVE. STARTING MY PRAYER WITH JUST ADORING GOD I FIND MYSELF COMING INTO MORE KNOWELEGE OF WHO HE IS AND HOW GREAT HE IS. THEN MOVING INTO CONFESSING NOT JUST MY SINS BEFORE HIM BUT SCRIPTURE OVER MY LIFE. THE CONFESSION OF SCRIPTURE ALLOWS MY HEART TO CONNECT WITH THAT GOD HAS FOR ME AND ALLOWS ME TO RENEW MY MIND. WHICH ALLOWS MY CONFIDENCE IN WHO I AM AND WHO HE THINKS I AM TO RISE AND EMPOWER ME WHEREVER I GO TO PROCLAIM HOW AWESOME HE IS. THEN THANKING HIM FOR WHERE HE HAS BROUGHT ME FROM TO WHO I AM TODAY. FEELING AT TIMES IN MY PAST LIKE HE WASN'T THERE AND THEN SEEING HOW HE WAS THERE AND "HOW HE LOVES ME WELL!" THERE IS NO ONE LIKE HIM AND I THANK HIM FOR DYING FOR ME AND SHEDDING HIS BLOOD FOR ME. EVEN IN MY DARKEST HOUR HIS REDEMPTIVE BLOOD IS ON ME SAVING ME FROM THINGS THAT TRY TO DESTROY MY SOUL. THEN PRESENTING MY REQUESTS BEFORE HIM KNOW IN CONFIDENCE THAT HE WILL ANSWER ME AND DO WHAT IS BEST FOR ME. I AM CALLING FOR YOUNG PEOPLE EVERY WHERE TO ENTER INTO INTIMATE PRAYER WITH OUR CREATOR. KNOWING THAT GOD WILL MEET YOU WHERE YOU ARE AT AND KNOWING THAT HE CALLS US TO TO TALK TO HIM AND CONVERSE WITH HIM (PSALMS 27:8,9). YOUNG PEOPLE WHO ENTER INTO CONVERSATION WITH GOD BECOME EMPOWERED TO CHANGE A CITY, STATE, AND NATION. WE ARE GOD'S ARMY, WE ARE HIS SOLDIERS TO FIGHT AGAINST IMMORALITY AND REBELLION THAT IS IN OUR NATION TODAY. TOGETHER WE CAN DO THIS. TOGETHER WE CAN CREATE A CRY SO LOUD FOR GOD TO MOVE THAT IT WILL SHAKE HEAVEN. HE WILL GET UP OF HIS THRONE AND OPEN UP A WINDOW IN HEAVEN LOOK DOWN AND SMILE ON US. WHEN HE SMILES ON US REVIVAL WILL TAKE PLACE IN OUR LAND. GOD BLESS YOU ALL

TIP:WHEN ADORING GOD READ THROUGH THE CHAPTERS 1-60 OF PSALMS AND UNDERLINE VERSES THAT ADORE GOD AND PRAY THOSE OUT LOUD. HE WILL MOVE!!!!

yeah.

Marty may have a shirt on, but Billy Beane just ripped his off and is squeezing his nipples. - Brendan's ukkah

by boobs on Jan 20, 2008 11:24 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

apparently

he's lost a lot of break on his paragraphs over the years.

I'm not superstitious...but I am a little stitious.

by Slyde on Jan 20, 2008 11:27 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

looks like he already prepared his

Cy Young acceptance speech.

is it April yet?

by Charlie Scrabbles on Jan 20, 2008 11:32 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I don't think God forgives...

...posting in all caps like that.

All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?

by BubbaFan on Jan 21, 2008 6:45 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

LOUD NOISES!!!

by Brian B on Jan 21, 2008 2:10 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Poor Bronson

"...CREATING A ENVIRONMENT TO BRING THE LOST TO CHRIST WITHIN THE WORK PLACE."

2008 NL Central Champs!

by Daedalus on Jan 21, 2008 11:08 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I'm pretty psyched actually...

I think Affeldt has a lot of potential in the bullpen... guy would be a GREAT replacement for Stanton...

Reds: WS Champs 2008... and every year after...

by crolfer on Jan 19, 2008 6:17 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

I'm not a big Affeldt fan...

...but I really can't object to a deal that's this low risk.

That said, if he's in the pen, I really don't think he's much of an upgrade on Coutlangus as a LOOGY-type.

by Geki on Jan 19, 2008 6:33 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Not a fan...Well I like his brother Ben,

He was pretty good in 'Good will Hunting and 'Chasing Amy' and acceptable in 'Shakespear in Love'.

"Statistics are like a bikini. What they reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal is vital." - Aaron Levenstein

by Madville on Jan 19, 2008 7:28 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I think

that Affeldt is not a "loogy" type.

I think that this is actually a pretty good acquisition.

I think that he would be better in the bullpen.

I think that this pushes Coutlangus out of the picture, unless they bite the bullet and cut Stanton (or carry 14 pitchers!).

I think that it could also mean that Belisle could be traded, if Affeldt is going to be a starter.

And now, I think that I am done.

Yogi Berra said: "predictions are tough, especially when they are about the future".

by Lonesome George on Jan 19, 2008 7:04 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Lets look at our starting pitching depth

Harang
Arroyo

? Belisle- probably
? Bailey
? Volquez
? Affeldt
? Cueto
? Maloney
? Livingston
? Shearn

We have 8 guys looking for three spots and my guess would be Bailey and Belisle will make the the starting rotation out ST. So that leaves 6 candidates for 1 spot. Personally, i think it will be between Volquez and Affeldt for the fifth spot. The loser between the two will probably be our swing guy that can make spot starts and do long relief. I actually feel good about rotation. There is a lot of solid competition for the last 3 spots. I would feel comfortable if the reds closed the book on acquisition for right now.

by gocolts on Jan 19, 2008 7:30 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Mr. "gocolts"

are you really Peyton Manning?

You make many fine points, but this acquisition may also be a prelude to a blockbuster trade of putting several young pitchers together for the left hander from Baltimore or Minnesota that must not be named.

Yogi Berra said: "predictions are tough, especially when they are about the future".

by Lonesome George on Jan 19, 2008 7:43 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

i dont think wayne

would see a one-year contract as a bandaid for the loss of a six-year pitcher.

Marty may have a shirt on, but Billy Beane just ripped his off and is squeezing his nipples. - Brendan's ukkah

by boobs on Jan 19, 2008 7:48 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Lets be pragmatic about this

Unless we can sign Santana or Bedard to 2013 for about half of what they are worth they will be a drain on this club. Financially and Talent wise. I would love them to be here, but I would also love the income and notoriety that Peyton Manning has too. If you talked about Blanton, Lowry, Lincecum, or even Slowy then I say maybe because they won't kill us to trade for them. I just think that we have some good depth for the pitching rotation. If one or two those guys come together the Reds should be contenders this year.

Speaking of which, albeit they are two different sports, If the Reds built through the Draft like the colts do they could be respectable year in and year out. Now that the reds have some great depth in the minors why would you want to trade it all away. Inspiration point, The colts use to suck really bad year in and year out too. Great drafts is the difference and Indy is probably a smaller market than cincy.

by gocolts on Jan 19, 2008 8:50 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

lets put to rest

the notion that livingston or shearn have a shot at the rotation. that they started any games last year is an embarrassment.

that likely leaves volquez, affeldt and cueto battling for the last spot (with JA's acquisition, I think maloney just got a ticket to Louisville), and we could probably narrow that down to EV and affeldt. I would like to see the loser + Cueto start in the bullpen, but more than likely Cueto will be in louisville.

What I'm getting at is that the rotation will almost certainly look like this:

Harang
Arroyo
Belisle
Bailey
Volquez/Affeldt

and I think that's not bad.

Marty may have a shirt on, but Billy Beane just ripped his off and is squeezing his nipples. - Brendan's ukkah

by boobs on Jan 19, 2008 7:47 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Livingston

Lets put to rest the notion that Bobby Livingston has a shot at making the rotation out of ST because he is going to be recovering from a torn labrum. He'll be lucky if he is even able to start pitching until late July/early August.

I actually thought Livingston showed some promise out last year, and he put together some quality outings. But that is besides the point.

I can't imagine they would start Cueto in the bullpen, given their reluctance to do so with Homer back in 2006 when we desparately needed the bullpen help in the midst of a division race.

by indy on Jan 19, 2008 8:26 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

re

I can't imagine they would start Cueto in the bullpen, given their reluctance to do so with Homer back in 2006 when we desparately needed the bullpen help in the midst of a division race.

I agree. I wish the team would consider Cueto in the pen. I don't think they will.

Marty may have a shirt on, but Billy Beane just ripped his off and is squeezing his nipples. - Brendan's ukkah

by boobs on Jan 19, 2008 9:02 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I fear...

...Livingston may never pitch again. A lot of pitchers never recover from a torn labrum. He's certainly not a candidate to pitch this season.

Shearn...if they intended to use him as a starter, they would not have DFA'd him. And he cleared waivers, so no one else was interested in him, either.

All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?

by BubbaFan on Jan 19, 2008 8:45 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

plus

most pitchers lose velocity after returning from a torn labrum. If Livingston loses any velocity he is done

The Dusty path to the World Series!

by justin0070000 on Jan 20, 2008 11:46 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

losing velocity

He'd become Chris Hammond!

by Brian B on Jan 20, 2008 12:10 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

All Shearn did was come in a give the Reds

5 or so innings of 'keeping it close enough to win' ball. He has little upside, but I would not totally count him out. Hopefully we won't have to worry about Tommmy - IF - Bailey learns how to pitch at the ML level and IF one of the new guys shows that they can give 5 or so innings of 'keeping it close enough to win' ball. Cueto and Maloney are so untried at the ML level but stranger things have happened...Oh and although I am a Bilizzle fan the jury is still out on him too. So what we really have is Harang, Arroyo and a guy that can give you 5 or so innings of 'keeping it close enough to win' ball.

The rotation does not look that great to me unless at least 3 of the 8 or so candidates raise their performance levels significantly. That's a very uncertain situation. It is possible that we'll be right back where we left off at the end of last season regarding the rotation.

"Statistics are like a bikini. What they reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal is vital." - Aaron Levenstein

by Madville on Jan 20, 2008 12:40 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I Meant livingston and shearn are there.

I by no means expect those two come in and pitch below 4 era and 32 starts. All they are is depth if an 'oh shit' emergency happens. However, there is a chance that 2 of the remaining 6 could easily pitch 4.50 with 30 some odd starts. I guess it comes down to Dusty and Krivcotty to field the best pitchers. I do feel comfortable about our rotation depth and I think 2 or 3 of the 6 will step up and give us Average to plus production.

by gocolts on Jan 20, 2008 9:08 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Livingston is probably 'done meat'

Shearn a long shot. The rotation as it is now is 2 guys and three prayers. Hopefully all 3 prayers will be answered in our favor,

"Statistics are like a bikini. What they reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal is vital." - Aaron Levenstein

by Madville on Jan 20, 2008 1:59 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

thank you

and I think that's not bad.

thank you for saying that.

2008 NL Central Champs!

by Daedalus on Jan 20, 2008 4:56 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I like it.

Looking at his numbers, he had one pretty good year in 2003 with (when I think there were rumors of the Reds trading Kearns, Dunn or Wily Mo for him--what a mistake that would have been).

Then his K rate went down a whole bunch, his hit rate went up a whole bunch, and his walk rate went up a whole bunch, particularly in 2006, and his WHIP and ERA+ were positively Miltonian.

It seems like he got injured somewhere in 2004 or so and took until 2007 to learn how to pitch again, because in 2007, his walk rate went down a bit, his K rate went up a lot and his hit rate went down a lot.

Perhaps it is just a contrast effect, but I like it. $3 million for one year for a 28-year old with some modest success is much better than $6 million for two years for a 40-something guy who can't pitch.

Sort of like saying that a school lunch is better than eating poop.

At least it wasn't Grady Little.

by Paul Householder on Jan 19, 2008 9:10 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

I like it too

Affeldt is a very versatile pitcher with great stuff and will probably get a shot to make the starting rotation.

Jeremy is also a very down-to-earth, nice guy and will fit in well in Cincy.

Great move on the part of the Krivmeister (Jocketty probably had a hand in it).

by Deaner on Jan 19, 2008 10:08 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Affeldt

Can vote on the signing here. I think it was a solid deal all around, personally, but this makes you choose a side.

http://mlbfleecefactor.com/2008/01/19/reds-sign-jeremy-affeldt/

by ET90210 on Jan 19, 2008 10:14 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Love it

I would have loved it more four years ago, but this may come at a better bargain. I think it was Jeff Austin who said Affeldt was the best pitcher in the Royals' system back in 2000 or 2003? He used to have some sick junk that made for some silly strike-out highlights. But those days may be long gone.

by Brian B on Jan 20, 2008 12:31 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

it still looks like he has a NASTY curve

"Herein is love, not that we loved God but that He loved us" -1 John 4:10

by shortstopv2 on Jan 20, 2008 11:43 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Going completely off the numbers,

I'm not so sure. The break on his curveball is considerably less than Stanton's, as an example. But I'm a little lost when looking at pitch f/x data b/c I don't have a solid frame of reference.

by ken on Jan 21, 2008 11:33 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Best Move of the offseason!!!

I said for months now we needed this guy

"Touchdowns are the most over rated stat in football, first downs are what win games!"-ESPNs Skip Bayless on why Tony Romo is not a good QB

by Zach K on Jan 20, 2008 7:48 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

one year deal

I like the one year deal. I don't know much about him but at least it seems to have been a pretty favorable off season. I also do not think that Wayner is finished yet,

Hope Springs Eternal! Go Reds

by Caleb on Jan 20, 2008 10:07 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Meh

He keeps it in the park and on the ground (1.45 G/F career), which is good. But before last year I wouldn't have been excited about this at all. That he did well at Coors is comforting but probably also the product of a very good defense.

by ken on Jan 20, 2008 12:24 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

To Thundering Turtle:

GO HERD!

by Deaner on Jan 20, 2008 3:01 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Thanks Deaner.

Go Bobcats, too!

I enjoyed your site. Where in southern West Virginia are you from?

We Are ... Marshall!

by Thundering Turtle on Jan 20, 2008 6:23 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

let's just put the rest the idea

that Volquez may not start the season in the rotation. as i remember, he is out of minor league options. so if he isnt in the Reds rotation to begin the year, he'll be in someone else's as a waiver claim. and nobody wants that. i guess we could bury him in the bullpen, but that would send even the simplest of fans wailing and gnashing. you dont trade Josh Hamilton for a bullpen chump.

is it April yet?

by Charlie Scrabbles on Jan 20, 2008 6:17 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

you dont trade hamilton period

i would have deff thought hamilton would be untouchable

"Herein is love, not that we loved God but that He loved us" -1 John 4:10

by shortstopv2 on Jan 20, 2008 11:42 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Hmmm...

Check out Affeldt's splits:



             ERA

Home        1.74

Away        5.46

Looks like he's one of those pitchers who benefits from the thin air of Colorado.

All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?

by BubbaFan on Jan 20, 2008 6:54 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

It was really just 3 bad outings

I shy away from H-R splits on relievers since they tend to show us less than we really think. Not only is it a small sample size, but it tends to be specialized and it just takes one or two bad outings to throw things off drastically. I'm sure you were just being facetious, but sometimes people put too much emphasis on that stuff for relievers (eg. go read Brew Crew Ball when the Reds signed Cordero. Many there were saying to expect failure since he couldn't pitch outside of Miller park.)

I'm taking a wait-and-see on this signing. His stuff can be electric, but the dude can be wild. At this point I'm fine with the move, but it has the potential to be ugly if he doesn't adjust from having solid defense behind him.

I'm not superstitious...but I am a little stitious.

by Slyde on Jan 20, 2008 7:30 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Tomko signed with the Royals,

one year, $3 million. This begs the question, which pitcher would you rather have, Affeldt or Tomko on those terms? Give me Affeldt.

We Are ... Marshall!

by Thundering Turtle on Jan 20, 2008 9:23 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

thats great news

because my favorite team just signed affeldt

Marty may have a shirt on, but Billy Beane just ripped his off and is squeezing his nipples. - Brendan's ukkah

by boobs on Jan 20, 2008 9:46 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

ctrent

ctrent is reporting that he has a job in Cincinnati. Details to follow, he says . . .

by Brian B on Jan 20, 2008 11:10 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Is C Trent going to be..

..Affeldt's personal blogger?

Fucking Christ, that's better than hot chicken in a strip mall!

"You can't roll a joint on an iPod." ~Shelby Lynne

by Fat Vegas Alan on Jan 21, 2008 5:24 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Affeldt replaces Saarloos?

5th starter long man type?

The Dusty path to the World Series!

by justin0070000 on Jan 20, 2008 11:14 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

id like to see shern in long relief

and affeldt given a chance to start

"Herein is love, not that we loved God but that He loved us" -1 John 4:10

by shortstopv2 on Jan 20, 2008 11:40 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

yeah

he screams sucess in the rotation.

I would rather see Cueto, or Bailey, or Valequez, or Maloney win the job.

The Dusty path to the World Series!

by justin0070000 on Jan 21, 2008 11:32 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I would prefer to see CTrent in relief

rather than Mike Stinkton.

"Statistics are like a bikini. What they reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal is vital." - Aaron Levenstein

by Madville on Jan 21, 2008 6:34 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

bring CTrents ugly mug in for the 8th inning

it hurts enough to look at him, let alone hit off of him

by jacob brumfield on Jan 21, 2008 6:40 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I like the one year deal

but it seems to me that Affeldt won't have the juice to stay in the starter's role all season. At some point, the Reds will just have another overpaid dude in the bullpen for Stanton to wipe his boogers on.

by Man Mountain on Jan 21, 2008 9:59 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

hehe

by jacob brumfield on Jan 21, 2008 10:25 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Mike Stanton doesn't wipe his boogers

He eats them, and everything else that is edible and lands in his hands.

He's fat, get it?

I'm not superstitious...but I am a little stitious.

by Slyde on Jan 21, 2008 10:33 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

That's not funny

That's sick.

Well, sorta funny. Yeah.

"Booger" Stanton.

Yogi Berra said: "predictions are tough, especially when they are about the future".

by Lonesome George on Jan 21, 2008 2:06 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Krivsky is now officially an idiot

Krivsky said this when he traded Hamilton for Volquez: "This trade would not have been done had we not felt that he was able to not only compete but win a job in our rotation in 08."

Harang and Arroyo, barring injury, are assured spots in the rotation. Bailey should be in the rotation; what else can he prove in the minors? Volquez has zero chance of bumping one of them out of the rotation.

Belisle? He pitched pretty well last year, despite what his ERA looked like. His DIPS era was middle of the road; infact, it was better than Carlos Zambrano. Plus, while he didn't strike out a ton of guys, he was top 10 in the league in both bb/9 and k/bb. All three things make him look like a solid #3 at worst, and possibly a real good one.

That leaves Volquez or Affeldt as middle-inning pullpen fodder - and only if Cueto doesn't outpitch both of them in ST (which is entirely possible, given the recent histories of all three pitchers).

just....wow.

by sidnancy on Jan 21, 2008 6:03 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

i see affeldt as the bullpen guy

Volquez will be in our rotation come spring. You bring in Affeldt because he adds competition to the rotation, but is still proven out of the pen. This way Bailey, Belisle, and Volquez don't expect a rotation spot, but work hard for it. And the best part: one year.

I feel much better having two new rotation-worthy arms on the club, especially without losing any arms. Krivsky is smart, building the Reds around rotation arms and not 5-tool players.

by jacob brumfield on Jan 21, 2008 6:30 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

what you mean

Ruben Mateo, Juan Encarnacion, Willy Mo Pena, and Jose Guillen on the same team won't make a championship ballclub, when they run Jimmy Haynes, Jimmy Anderson out there? Who would have thought.

The Dusty path to the World Series!

by justin0070000 on Jan 21, 2008 6:52 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Humorous

But a strawman.

Those 4 OF played together only in '02. Encarnacion had the most AB (321) and highest OPS of the group (.804, or just over league-average), but only because Jr. was hurt; otherwise, he'd have been a 4th OF. Even so, as a group they hit better(.759 OPS in 584 PA) than Casey (.696 in 476), and much better than Larkin (.672 in 567 PA).

In '03, Guillen was great for the Reds - OPS of 1.014 in the 1st half. Mateo and Pena played a bit more than in '02, but Encarnacion was gone. Also, Pena had to be on the ML roster because he was originally signed to a ML deal, and couldn't be sent to the minors without going through waivers.

Of the four, two were traded straight-up for the #1 and 2 starters in the present rotation, and one was traded for a guy who was successful both before and after he was in Cinci.

So, (1) only 2 of the four got significan playing time; one only because of an injury and the other was great, (2) others who got much more playing time really brought the team down, and (3) other teams thought enough of them that they traded starting pitchers for them (two of them, straight up). Oh, and (4) Encarnacion was the starting RF for two different World Series winning teams.

just....wow.

by sidnancy on Jan 21, 2008 7:46 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

"Rotation worthy arms"

Affeldt last started a game May 27, 2006. He was moved to the bullpen because as a starter he was terrible (that's an ERA of 7.80, with an OPS against of .902. To put it in perspective, Hamilton's was .922 last year, but KC is a neutral park for hitters). He's also "proven" out of the pen last year only, In '06, his ERA as a reliever was 4.94; in '05, it was 5.26; in '04, it was 4.5. Plus, if he doesn't make the rotation, that gives them 4 lefties in the bullpen, unless they eat Stanton's salary.

At least you can say Volquez has potential - he's only 24, and last year put up a league-average ERA (with a slightly worse-than average WHIP); however, since it was only over 34 innings spread out over 6 games (he never pitched past the 6th), who knows?

just....wow.

by sidnancy on Jan 21, 2008 7:12 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I have to say I agree with you

I think the Red's are in much trouble if they rely on Affeldt in the rotation. I see him as SaarloosV2008, except hopefully better. He can be a spot starter, and maybe the number 4 man out of the 'pen after Corderro, Burton, and Weathers.

As for the number of lefties down there.

I don't really care because Coutlangus is more capable of getting right handed hitters out. Plus I am not sold on Coutlangus, he may very well regress this season and spend much of it at AAA anyway. His perhiphals are not that great. He tops out at about 88 MPH, so it isn't like he has over powering stuff. The only thing he really has going for him is his unusual delivery. His bb/9 is atrocious, 5.93, ouch. That will catch up to him. He is a guy I would be afraid to use as a firefighter because if he is brought into a basesloaded situation, he may walk in 2 runs. I think, judging by Bray's stuff, he will be able to get both lefties and righties out. His numbers haven't shown that yet, but I am hoping that his splits even out. Does Stanton really even matter in this discussion? He is ineffective at geting righties and lefties out. He might not beable to get Jimmy Abbout out.

The Dusty path to the World Series!

by justin0070000 on Jan 21, 2008 9:36 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

stats

I don't know that anyone really likes the deal because of his past results as shown by his stats. I like it because I've seen him ctually pitch (as I'm sure others have) and know that he's much better than his numbers. He has definitely underperformed, no question. Hence the fact that he signable by krivsky in the first place. If he had won three cy youngs, why would he come to cincinnati on a one year deal?

by Brian B on Jan 22, 2008 9:40 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

To paraphrase Groucho Marx

We don't want any players willing to accept the amount of money the Reds are able to offer.

I'm not superstitious...but I am a little stitious.

by Slyde on Jan 22, 2008 9:59 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

What???

He's better than his numbers?

He's a crappy pitcher. Last year was the only time in the past 4 years he hasn't been crappy; in fact, in '06 he was abysmal.

Comments like "He's better than his numbers" is why guys like Jeff Weaver keep getting big contracts. The numbers are how good he is, not matter how "good" he looks.

I love the "actually seen him pitch" comment, like those who actually look crap up never watch a game. Guess what - I've watched him pitch, too, and he's been very hittable the past 4 years. Those WHIPs of over 1.6 (and the career over 1.5) are real performance, not what he "looks like" and not just some numbers on a page.

just....wow.

by sidnancy on Jan 22, 2008 10:16 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

he good like Jorge Sosa is good

I think a better way to put that is he has the potential to be better then his numbers.

A guy like Tom Shearn, who has marginal velocity and what not, will probably always keep a WHIP around 1.5, and K/9 around 4 or so.

If a light goes on for a guy who can reach the mid 90's, his numbers could improve.

That being said, there are very very few pitchers who throw 98 or 88, who are bad until they reach 28 or 29, who than suddenly become good pitchers. At best they become role pitchers. LOGGY's, long men/swing men, 13th pitcher on the staff/ace of AAA. David Weathers is one of those guys. He was awful as a starting pitcher for many years. Remember when he started for the Red's in 1998? After the Red's released him (at the age of 28) the Brewers picked him up. He has worked exclusivly in relief since, minus 2 emergency starts for Florida in 2004 when I think in September they played 30 games in 28 days to make up for a number of rainouts. His numbers have been much much better. But I think a Weathers like career is probably about the best that can be projected for Affeldt.

But guys like Jorge Sosa, Jeff Weaver, dear i say Kyle Lohse, keep getting chance after chance, because their stuff is so tantalizing it is hard for GM's (especially with limited resources, or undesirable free agent destination) not to think, what if?

The Dusty path to the World Series!

by justin0070000 on Jan 22, 2008 1:31 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

god fucking damnit

i checked the spelling, grammar of that whole post, and I fucked up the title.

The Dusty path to the World Series!

by justin0070000 on Jan 22, 2008 1:36 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Ok...

But there's nothing in his numbers that says "I'm better than my numbers".

As for Weathers, he was successful for 2 half-seasons for the Brewers (separated by an entire poor season), and occassionally since then, but not consistantly. And there's another reason to look at him as similar to Affeldt - horrid k/bb rates, which is not a good sign.

Maybe I'm overreacting because of the other moves made the past 2 seasons; maybe it's because so many seem so stoked about Affeldt. I just see $3M thrown at a guy who's really about as good 1000 other guys out there if you look at his whole body of work, while everyone else sees the guy with a 3.5 ERA in Coors Field. I just don't see anything in his past that says he won't revert back to form (Dan Szymborski's ZiPS projection over at baseballthinkfactory agrees with me).

just....wow.

by sidnancy on Jan 22, 2008 1:59 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I think the upside of Affeldt is

that he's the kind of player that you take a one-year flyer on. He's a guy with unrefined tools that perhaps will put it together and get lucky for your team for a couple of months. The Cardinals seem to pull a couple of these guys out of nowhere every year.

Unfortunately, the downside is that Affeldt had one of those years last season and the Cardinals don't tend to spend $3M on those types of players. I agree with you that the money didn't need to be spent on Affeldt, but if the money is going to be spent, there are worse types of crappy ballplayers to spend it on. And at least it wasn't a multi-year deal.

I'm not superstitious...but I am a little stitious.

by Slyde on Jan 22, 2008 2:06 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I'm not trying to say that he will improve

I am guessing that he will be inconsistant and teasing. I hope if he starts it is only in emergency situations, a guy gets hurt warming up, or somebody comes forward with an injury 2 days before he is supposed to start, and nobody in AAA who is "ready" would be rested for that start. A guy goes on the DL and is only expected to be on it for 15 days, and the Red's don't want to waste an option on the guys in AAA, so they use Affedlt to cover 2 or 3 starts.

The Red's are in trouble if they see him as the absolute answer to the question marks in the starting rotation. But with Bailey, Valquez, Cueto, Maloney, and to a lesser extent Gardner, they have many other options. This isn't like in 2003 when the Red's signed Paul Wilson, or 2004 when they signed Corey Lidle, and expected them to be the ace of the staff.

The Dusty path to the World Series!

by justin0070000 on Jan 22, 2008 2:19 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Question

to anyone still paying attention to this thread...

Any word on who will be dropped from the 40-man for this move? Reds.com has 41 players on the 40-man roster right now, though I'm not sure what the status of Livingston is since he will most likely start the season on the 60-day DL. At the very least one player, if not two, needs to be dropped from the roster. Has anything been said about this?

I'm not superstitious...but I am a little stitious.

by Slyde on Jan 22, 2008 12:55 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

I'm dumb

I miscounted. There are only 40 on the current roster, before Affeldt is added. They'll still need to drop one though.

I'm not superstitious...but I am a little stitious.

by Slyde on Jan 22, 2008 1:02 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Sometimes bad shit happens to good pitchers;

No run support, untimely errors,Mike Stanton comes in to hold the lead and lets all 3 inherited runners score. That said, over the course of a season or two the results are the results. a good pitcher will end up being pretty good even in a bad year. etc.
It appears from what I've gleaned from reading the posts regarding Ben Affeldt is: He's another long shot and at least he's only on a one year deal. For this we gave up Hobbs? It will be rough going in the OF when Grif goes down. No wonder Big Bob hired Jocko.

"Statistics are like a bikini. What they reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal is vital." - Aaron Levenstein

by Madville on Jan 23, 2008 2:02 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

there is a difference between

affeldt and volquez. A four year difference. Affeldt is 28 while Volquez is only 24. Valquez is still in the "prospect" phase of his career Affeldt is somewhere between journeyman and suspect. There is a much greater chance of Volquez improver compared to Affeldt.

The Dusty path to the World Series!

by justin0070000 on Jan 23, 2008 3:40 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I think Affeldt might contribute...

...a little bit more than what the consensus here seems to think.

I don't consider myself a fan of Affeldt or his collective skills, but I have this feeling that Walt, Wayne and Johnnie B may be crossing their fingers and thinking of Affeldt as a stop-gap #4 starter.

I don't think it will work out that way and even if he does produce at that level I don't think he'll consistently get starting opportunities in late June and beyond. But until the prospects earn their spots and stick in them I see Affeldt as a nice new roll of duct tape in the Reds' duct tape and bailing wire 3-through-5 rotation.

"You can't roll a joint on an iPod." ~Shelby Lynne

by Fat Vegas Alan on Jan 23, 2008 4:50 PM EST reply actions 0 recs