Eric Milton Was Historically Bad

by JD Arney on Jan 18, 2008 12:32 PM EST in News

Geoff Young has an interesting article up at The Hardball Times on 10 Pitching Seasons To Forget, and not surprisingly Eric Milton makes an appearance at number five:

Once upon a time, Milton was a hot young prospect in the Yankees organization who became part of the package that sent Chuck Knoblauch from Minnesota to the Bronx. In his 1998 Minor League Scouting Notebook John Sickels rated Milton as the 23rd best prospect in baseball and compared him favorably to Andy Pettitte. Milton teased for a few years, then got hurt, then lost effectiveness.
Always susceptible to the home run ball, Milton gave up 40 of them in 2005 (half of which came in his first 11 starts). That's not quite Ken Dixon territory, but it's not good. Milton allowed six runs or more in 11 of his 34 starts.
Milton owns an 87-84 record over 10 seasons and counting. The highlight of his career came on Sep. 11, 1999, when he no-hit the Angels at the Metrodome.

The Milton signing really was one of the dumber things the Reds have ever done. And I'm such an abused fan that I remember trying to talk myself into thinking it would be ok.

You know you're in bad shape when your favorite team gives three years at a huge price to a guy you are thinking might be able to put up a 4.50 ERA. And you start telling yourself a 4.50 ERA wouldn't be TOO bad. Hell, it's an upgrade even.

I have no idea how 2008 is going to turn out, but it's nice having some realistic hope for once.

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Well Paul Wilson was the ace

at the time he was signed. I remember buying into all the hype in the media with such headlines as "Red's dealt an ace in Milton", and what not. I remember buying, he gives up a lot of runs but he knows how to win ballgames. I wasn't really sabrametrically inclined at the time. I now understand much of what happened to Milton was luck. Oh I also remembered the start he had in 2004 where he came within 1 or 2 outs of a no hitter against the Cubs.

The Dusty path to the World Series!

by justin0070000 on Jan 18, 2008 3:42 PM EST reply actions

SABR

I credit trying to understand what the hell happened with Milton as the primary motivation for my finally coming to understand DIPS. In fact, I think my first attempt at some kind of sabr-style analysis was a diary I posted here trying to understand him. :)
-j

On Baseball and the Reds

by JinAZ on Jan 18, 2008 4:18 PM EST up reply actions

Estimate

By my numbers, including park factors, Milton provided ~2 runs (0.67/season on average) over replacement to the Reds during this entire tenure with the team. The season they mentioned essentially negated his modest production in '06.

So, that's the equivalent of ~0.07 wins above replacement (WAR) per season--almost indistinguishable from a $400k/season ($1.2m total) replacement player.

2007 free agent salaries were valued at ~$4 million per win above replacement, which means a $25/3yr deal was paying for ~2.5 WAR per season...and perhaps a bit more, given that we're seeing ~10% inflation in salaries, and this deal was signed in 2005.

Hindsight's 20/20, of course. I doubt even the critics would have predicted how badly he'd implode. I mean, sure, you'd expect more home runs relative to Minnesota, but his strikeouts declined pretty dramatically while with the Reds (bum knee?). Anyway, yikes.
-j

On Baseball and the Reds

by JinAZ on Jan 18, 2008 4:15 PM EST reply actions

Lest we forget

Milton allowed an OPS+ of 136 that season. Basically, Milton turned the average hitter into Andruw Jones, in his 51 HR season.

by ken on Jan 18, 2008 5:03 PM EST reply actions

wow

really? wow.

Marty may have a shirt on, but Billy Beane just ripped his off and is squeezing his nipples. - Brendan's ukkah

by boobs on Jan 18, 2008 6:12 PM EST up reply actions

My take on Milty:

Eric Milton Was Histarically Bad.

"Statistics are like a bikini. What they reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal is vital." - Aaron Levenstein

by Madville on Jan 18, 2008 5:14 PM EST reply actions 1 recs

heheh

Eric Milton was hysterically bad!

Everybody's a jerk. You. Me. This jerk.

by andromache on Jan 19, 2008 2:03 PM EST up reply actions

Eric Milton

Was histrionically bad.

At least it wasn't Grady Little.

by Paul Householder on Jan 19, 2008 9:12 PM EST up reply actions

But now......

He's gone. (sniff)

Eric, we hardly knew yee.

Today's Lesson: Don't give big long term contracts to players, especially pitchers, who are statistically sub-mediocre in hopes of "filling a need", providing "veteran presence", or "supplying a big piece of the puzzle" when you may have minor league or young players (alternatives) that are cheaper and have more long term potential.

Whew! That ended up longer than I thought it would.

Or hysterically bad.

Yogi Berra said: "predictions are tough, especially when they are about the future".

by Lonesome George on Jan 19, 2008 12:32 PM EST reply actions