now and then and NOT lose the confidence of the manager/club. This could be difficult with Dusty's rep of not being patient with younger or not fully developed talent. If Dusty gets behind EdE and lets him play AND challenges him as well I could see him projected like this:
BA .285 with 30 home runs, 95 RBI, 5 stolen bases, and 150 games played. After last season he's shown the ability to have this kind of year.I do not think that he'll hit for much higher of an average than 285 because he needs to be in a slot in the line up to break up the lefty brigade - he could be back at the 4 hole and be required to drive the ball and hit for more power.Besides we don't want him clogging up the bases with walks and singles. Plus I see continued strong and even more improved defense from Encarnacion as well. I look for a great year from EdE.  

.295/.360/.505 is where I am going.

I'll play the pessimist for once.

i really like Eddy.  i always have.  but i dont think he is going to become the middle-of-the-order force we want him to be.  he will hit well and produce, but i dont see him becoming a premiere all-star right-handed bat.  but that's not a problem.  he's gonna do enough and i think this is the year management finally realizes that.

After being called up from Triple-A last year on May 22nd, he put up a .307/.370/.476 line.  He really turned it on starting on August 23rd in Atlanta.  He hit .358/.412/.634 over his last 34 games of the season.  The thing that is most promising about that last stretch is that his power stroke started to develop.  Prior to that, he had slugged just .375.  They may have had to move him to middle infielder or catcher with those types of slugging numbers.  The fact that he picked it up at the end of the season gives me reason to believe he can slug closer to .500, which is crucial for a corner infield spot.

My two concerns have to do with some dropping rates.  His walk rate dropped from 9.2% in 2006 to 7.2% in 2007.  If he can regain some patience at the plate, that will go a long way towards boosting his other numbers as well.  He doesn't need to be a walk machine like Dunn, but I start to get concerned if a player's walk rate drops into the 6s or lower, especially if they tend to strikeout on occasion.

My other concern is that his line drive rate also dropped last year to 18% (from 21%).  The small drop with EdE concerns me a bit more than with a typical player because I think he is more of a doubles hitter than a HR hitter.  I think his goal should be 40 doubles rather than 30 HR.  If he can hit 40 doubles in a season, then I think he is making the most of his talent (I think the same thing about Brandon Phillips).  In a park like GABP, swinging for doubles could still net you 20+ HR, and if EdE can manage 60 extra base hits while batting 4th or 5th, the Reds will be in good shape.

I've made this comparison multiple times, but I see EdE as very comparable to Tony Perez.  He may not have as much power as Perez (and I don't think EdE is a future hall of famer), but if you put some runners on base in front of him, he will knock in 100 runs every year.  I also hope this comparison is true because Tony Perez busted out in 1967 at the age of 25.  Hopefully, EdE can do the same.

I think Dusty Baker will be good for EdE.  Players generally like playing for Dusty, and I think EdE has enough experience to be past the supposed threat of Dusty not playing youngsters.  I look for him to put up good numbers:
.287/.351/.483 with 24 HR, 102 RBI, and 6 SB in 155 games.

Agree with Madville - it'll be easier to forgive Dusty when he shreds an arm or two if he doesn't mess with Encarnacion.  

Also, if Encaracion has a good year they should think about a l/t deal buying out his arb and a couple of his FA years.  

For the record, here is what EdE has been doing the last few weeks in the Winter League in the Dominican Republic:

Encarnación, Edwin       

9 games,    32 AB,    8 Hits,    3 doubles    1 HR,    4 RBI,    5 Runs,    0 SB     7 BB,     7 SO,    14 TB    .250 AVG,    438 SLG

http://www.aguiluchos.com/estadisticas.asp?a=1&b=57&c=2&d=&e=Ok

His team, the Eagles, just qualified for the winter league series final against the Licey Tigers.  The series (best of 9) starts tonight here in Santo Domingo.  Here are the projected starting line ups (http://www.listin.com.do/app/article.aspx?id=44579):

ÁGUILAS (EAGLES)
Chris Robertson CF
Rafael Furcal 2B
Miguel Tejada SS
Edwin Encarnación 3B
Mendy López 1B
Víctor Díaz RF
Luis Polonia DH
Alexis Gómez LF
Gustavo Molina C
Derek Leek P

LICEY
Emilio Bonifacio RF
Ronnie Belliard 2B
José Offerman 1B
Willy Aybar 3B
Armando Ríos LF
Napoleón Calzado DH
Erick Aybar SS
Félix Pie CF
Wil Nieves C
Randy Leek P

really? the only person to top 100 rbi's for the reds in the past seven years is dunn. if that happens to EdE, I will be flabbergasted, but pleasantly. for the record, i kind of hope we get an all-star year out of him and deal him for more arms, or a catcher, or to fill some other need, because i have a hunch one of todd frazier, juan francisco or brandon waring will stick at third and absolutely rake.

EdE: .294/.371/.492  21 HR, 89 RBIs, 9 SB, 154 G

AVG/OBP/SLG / HR / RBI / SB / Games

AVG- .287
OBP- .355
SLG- .473
HR-   23
RBI-  89
SB-   19
Games- 148