RUMOR: Reds jumping back in for Bedard??

The player Baltimore is asking for as the fourth player is thought to be 3B Edwin Encarnacion. In order for this to make any sense, the O's would have to trade current 3B Melvin Mora

How about, in order for this to make any sense the Reds would have to not trade four of their five best young players for 2 years of a starting pitcher and a declining and expensive Melvin Mora.  That's how it would make any sense.

There's a report in the Chicago papers this morning that the Cubs are intensifying their pursuit of Brian Roberts.  The deal allegedly involves Sean Gallagher, Sean Marshall, and Ronny Cedeno.  If that happens, the Cubs will really be thin on pitching, having to depend on the likes of Ryan Dempster and Jason Marquis to fill out the back end of their rotation with no help down on the farm.  With the trade of Tejada, the Oriole's started the fire sale.  I'm sure they want to put the pieces in place before Spring Training.  Anyone dealing with them has time on their side, and they would be well served to let the clock tick.

the M's are closing in on a deal:

A trade between the Orioles and Mariners is only one player away from completion, major-league sources say, but that one player could be right-hander Chris Tillman, a 19-year-old that the M's would prefer to retain.

Outfielder Adam Jones would be the centerpiece of the deal for the Orioles, and left-handed reliever George Sherrill and 17-year-old shortstop Carlos Triunfel are among the other players under discussion.

That's a fine haul from what I've read, but I can't believe that it's as good as Bailey/Votto/Cueto.  This rumor sounds very suspect.

to hear everyone piss and moan about.  I mean why even try to win future ballgames? Baseball decisions should be based soley on the amount of possible buzz they will cause in the bloggersphere.

The Reds aren't the Red Sox or the Yankees; instead, the Reds are a small market team. Cincinnati needs to build from within.  Trading for or signing expensive players for "win now" reasons would destroy the Reds for years to come.

Not make this deal.
We could have Johan for three of those guys and that might make sense because we could let Santana pitch us into contention then deal him at the deadline and replenish the system.

is there?

That is beyond a ridiculous trade offer for Bedard.

Few teams benefit from trades like this, and those who do are clearly trading the short run for the long run--in a major way. Maybe that's fine if you're the Tigers, and you're pushing to win the Series now, in a killer division. Maybe you can trade your top two prospects for Cabrara and Willis. At least you get two key guys in return. But the Reds? They finally have a good farm system. I can't support their gutting it just to get Bedard, especially after trading Hamilton. I want them to win in 2008, don't get me wrong. I also want them to win in 2009, 2010, and beyond.

Keep Bailey and Cueto.    

This is ridiculous.  I think there was a misunderstanding somewhere along the line.

My guess is the offer was Bailey OR Cueto, and Votto and another player.  Maybe that other player is EE.  But not both Bailey and Cueto.

I don't understand why the Reds would trade EE, but there's an awful lot of talk about it.  Did he run over Krivsky's cat or what?

Maybe they think Janish can take over.  They played him at 3B for the first time last season.

But I think Bailey, Cueto, Votto, and Encarnacion have a much much higher ceiling...

this makes me way happier.

http://frontier.cincinnati.com/blogs/redsinsider/2008/01/on-starting-pitcher-front.asp

lets go for '08

One club's representative says the latest he heard was that Baltimore was waiting for Seattle to either agree to include Brandon Morrow or Carlos Triunfel in the package along with Adam Jones and George Sherrill, or for the Reds to start their package with Jay Bruce.

I pushed hard to see if the Orioles were truly only interested in what Cincinnati had to offer if Bruce was included and the response I got was "yes, unless they want to gut their system."

This tells me that the Reds have not agreed to a Homer Bailey, Johnny Cueto, Joey Votto and a fourth player deal.

Another league source claims he spoke with someone close to the situation in Baltimore and got the impression that Seattle was likely to cave on Morrow before agreeing to include Triunfel in any trade, but that no progress involving the right-hander had been achieved.

The most intriguing information I got this morning is from a former front office member of one of the teams involved. He says the Orioles gave the Mariners a once-and-for-all type counter offer (apparently to the Jones-Clement-Sherrill offer Seattle is thought to have made) and if Triunfel or Morrow are not included, the Orioles will shut down talks.

He also says that this type of act by one side often forces the other to either turn away completely or fall for the move and give in.

He predicts the Mariners will introduce Bedard at a press conference Thursday, "if not well before" and that the Mariners will certainly have vastly overpaid in the deal.

When asked what kind of package he'd be willing to part with if he were the Mariners, this is what he came up with.

"Nothing involving Jones, and no deal that has two of their best guys in it. Not Clement and Morrow, not Clement and Triunfel. I might do Clement and the other outfielder, Balentien, but Baltimore wants pitching. Clement or Balentien plus Tillman or Butler. I'd do that."

For the record, my offer would start and end this way:

Wladimir Balentien OR Brandon Morrow OR Jeff Clement, plus Tony Butler, George Sherrill and one of the following three -- Adam Moore, Kameron Mickolio or Michael Saunders. Although I'd include any two of the latter three if the Orioles put newly-acquired left-hander Troy Patton or right-hander Pedro Beato into the deal, too.

Otherwise, the club runs a ridiculously high risk of acquiring Bedard and finishing in second place for two more seasons, watching Bedard sign with the Red Sox, Yankees, Dodgers, Mets or Blue Jays while Jones and company come into their own as key members of the Orioles 25-man roster.

In my conversation with a friend of mine that works with the Mets, he asked me to describe a scenario where I would make a deal for Bedard that included Jones or Triunfel.

I painted in two Beltre or better level bats, at least one a lefty, that were assets defensively at first base (in place of Sexson) and in a corner outfield spot (in place of Ibanez, who moves to DH).

Then the offense and the defense are ready to support what would be a pretty solid staff with a rather nasty 1-2 punch at the top of the rotation.

But since the offense has just a good a shot to finish in the bottom third as it does the top half (see potential declines from Ibanez, Johjima and Vidro, and more bad offense by Lopez and Sexson,) and the outfield defense could be wretched in the corners, I absolutely cannot figure out a scenario where the current roster plus Bedard seriously contends with the 2008 Los Angeles Angels, who, by the way, may not be done bettering their roster, too.

Far too many things would have to go right. Most of which could easily be deemed "unlikely" by objective observers.

And for those who keep telling me "if they get Bedard and need more offense, they can still go get it since it's only January," well, tell me who they can go get? There isn't a single impact bat - outside Barry Bonds whom the club won't consider signing - on the free agent market and the trade route might bare even fewer and less attractive options.

And even if there was a perfect trade target, you'd have to further gut your system or trade from the 25-man roster in order to get a deal done.

Seattle is so close to being in a position to make moves, such as the Bedard idea, it's just a year or two early. Think a year or two from right now as the Halos get old and their key guys get to free agency, and when the Rays are trading Scott Kazmir or the Rockies are entertaining offers for Jeff Francis, Ubaldo Jimenez or Franklin Morales.

At that point, the M's will know what they have in Chris Tillman, have a better idea of what Butler, Juan Ramirez and Phillippe Aumont are going to be, and won't have to consider Triunfel a high-risk talent since he's likely to see Double-A in 2008.

There are almost always certain prospects that each club should protect, particularly in this day and age where the free agent market is what it is. And most of those with such value are usually on the brink of the big leagues.

The Yankees have Joba Chamberlain. The Red Sox have Clay Buchholz. The LA Dodgers have Clayton Kershaw while the Cincinnati Reds have Jay Bruce.

And the Seattle Mariners have Adam Jones.

mlbtraderumors.com interviewed Mayo.

MLBTR: If you were Wayne Krivsky, would you trade Jay Bruce for Erik Bedard straight up?  What players would you compare Bruce to?  How does Bruce compare to Adam Jones?

Mayo: In a word, no. I wouldn't trade Bruce for Bedard straight up. Frankly, and maybe I'm a little prospect-slanted, there's not much I would trade Jay Bruce for. Not only is the guy going to be one of the game's great hitters, he's an outstanding individual who'll represent the organization extremely well. I know that's not the be-all, end-all, but Bruce is going to be a true ambassador for the game. He's going to hit for average, get on base, hit for a ton of power, play good OF (eventually RF, but fine in CF for now), throw runners out, maybe even steal a few bases. It's hard to come up with a good comparable, but I'll go with Larry Walker. Maybe not quite as much speed, but it's pretty close.