Matt Maloney and other young pitchers

by Geki on Sep 4, 2007 2:45 PM EDT

As most of you know, Maloney was the bounty we recieved for Kyle Lohse back at the deadline. At the time, I was somewhat unhappy with the deal because I believed we could've gotten more, but Maloney has thus far made that look like an excellent deal.

Maloney is a 6-4 lefty with a fastball in the upper-80s and a plus breaking ball and change. His control is decent but not outstanding, and he does not do a very good job of keeping the ball on the ground, allowing a fairly high amount of homers with a groundball percentage easily under 50%.

Despite this fairly pedestrian scouting report, Maloney's already decent numbers absolutely took off once the Reds dealt for him. In 45 innings over 7 starts between AA and AAA, Maloney allowed 27 hits, 9 walks, and had a whopping 62 strikeouts. That's a WHIP of .80 and a K/9 up near 13. Small sample size or not, those are some absolutely ridiculous numbers. He still allowed too many homers (6 in 45 innings), but he flashed some really badass numbers. It's not really backed up by scouting reports, but I'm significantly more hopeful that he can be a #4 starter now than I was when we dealt for him.

Personally, I think the smartest thing for next year would be to have a starting rotation of Harang, Arroyo, Bailey, Cueto, and Maloney right out of spring training. It would have growing pains, but it has the ability there to be absolutely outstanding. We might as well get it some experience.

Bullpen-wise to start next year, I'd like to see Bray, Majewski (well, like to see is an overstatement with him), Coutlangus, Burton, Roenicke, Viola, and Weathers. Screw the old guys, I wanna see these young power arms. This is not a team that is very likely to contend next year, so we might as well make use of it as a growth year like the Tigers did a few years ago. I am presently pumped about this team's pitching future, and that's a pretty rare thing indeed.

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I agree

Let's just run out all of our young pitchers, and see what sticks. The only way Bailey, Cueto, and Maloney can learn to pitch at teh big league level is to do it. Few pitchers are great their rookie season.

by justin0070000 on Sep 4, 2007 3:02 PM EDT reply actions

Something completely different...

Salmon or McBeth instead of Majewski? Majik's about proved his worthlessness, despite being badly mis-used for the last two years.

Viola does look ready, by his AA numbers, doesn't he?

Belisle instead of Cueto, just because it might be tough with too many rooks in the rotation at the same time (bullpen meltdown). If Bailey wasn't there, I would be all for Johnny C.

Cueto would be a AAA back-up if somebody broke down.

And Stanton could be a greeter at Wal-Mart.

See? That wasn't completely different.

Witless as usual

by Lonesome George on Sep 4, 2007 3:06 PM EDT reply actions

Honestly

McBeth just slipped my mind. He should be in there somewhere.

As for Salmon, I was really unimpressed by him. I haven't given up completely on him and Coffey, but I'd rather they start the year in AAA.

As for Belisle, I'm just not a fan.

by Geki on Sep 4, 2007 3:14 PM EDT up reply actions

No interestin in Guevara?

Why Roenicke and Viola over Guevara? Are they more fireballers? I don't know much about them.

I'm a numbers freak, numbers freak. I'm numbers freaky, ow.

by Slyde on Sep 4, 2007 3:13 PM EDT reply actions

Guevara

I like the numbers, but by all accounts he's more or less a gimmick pitcher with his screwball. He may have a future, but Roenicke's stuff is on par with Burton's and Viola's supposedly pretty nasty, especially for a lefty. Guevara's another guy on the radar, I just see Roenicke and Viola as guys with more upside.

That said, Guevara has earned a shot more than either of them, so I wouldn't have a problem with him being brought up.

by Geki on Sep 4, 2007 3:15 PM EDT up reply actions

Well

It's not so much Viola, Slyde, as it is Roenicke. He's good.

"Two Dunn's enter, but only one Dunn will leave...unless neither do because they decide to play cards, drink beer, golf, and fish."--SlydeFrog

by Man Mountain on Sep 4, 2007 4:22 PM EDT up reply actions

I know what you mean

I wish they still had fights in this game so I could bitch-slap Wayne.

I'm a numbers freak, numbers freak. I'm numbers freaky, ow.

by Slyde on Sep 4, 2007 4:29 PM EDT up reply actions

you mean

superfan number 99 over here?

"Two Dunn's enter, but only one Dunn will leave...unless neither do because they decide to play cards, drink beer, golf, and fish."--SlydeFrog

by Man Mountain on Sep 4, 2007 4:54 PM EDT up reply actions

2008 roster

there should be at least 7-10 changes on the 25 man for next season, with the majority of those coming to the pitching staff.

Hope Springs Eternal! Go Reds

by Caleb on Sep 4, 2007 3:35 PM EDT reply actions

Unfortunately

I'm not so sure that will happen. Here's how I see the breakdown of the roster (trying to walk a mile in Krivsky's sweater):
Locks
------
Bronson Arroyo
Bill Bray
Jared Burton
Aaron Harang
David Weathers
David Ross
Edwin Encarnacion
Alex Gonzalez
Jeff Keppinger
Brandon Phillips
Ryan Freel
Ken Griffey
Josh Hamilton
Norris Hopper

Probable
--------
Homer Bailey
Jon Coutlangus
Gary Majewski
Mike Stanton
Javier Valentin
Adam Dunn

Questionable
-------------
Todd Coffey
Jorge Cantu
Joey Votto
Scott Hatteberg
Matt Belisle
Marcus McBeth
Brad Salmon

Doubtful
--------
Phil Dumatrait
Mike Gosling
Bobby Livingston
Tom Shearn
Buck Coats
Ryan Jorgensen
Ryan Hanigan
Juan Castro

Out
----
Jason Ellison

That's 20 guys in the Locks or Probable pile and that doesn't include the likely two 1B they will carry. I don't see next year's team looking that different than this year. Yes there are some changes that will happen, but I don't think we'll see a major roster overhaul this off-season.

I'm a numbers freak, numbers freak. I'm numbers freaky, ow.

by Slyde on Sep 4, 2007 3:57 PM EDT up reply actions

Always with the reality thing

I get the feeling that it is EITHER Norris Hopper or Ryan Freel, not both.
Alex Gonzalez, Jeff Keppinger, Edwin Encarnacion: Pick only two from this list; I don't think all three will be with the team on Opening Day next year.

While two catchers is a lock, it may not be either Valentin or Ross. Just a sneaking hunch.

I would like to see Salmon get some good looks in September, under conditions where he isn't coming in to clean up somebody else's mess. Just to see how good his stuff is.

I would also move Cantu into the "probable" category.

Witless as usual

by Lonesome George on Sep 4, 2007 4:10 PM EDT up reply actions

You're probably right on Cantu

I just lumped him in with the other first basemen, but he likely is a probable. I doubt that the two first basemen next year will be Votto and Hatteberg, so Cantu will probably be the other one.

If only one of the two current catchers comes back, it will probably be Ross since his money next year is guaranteed.

I would say that it's more likely Hopper, Freel, or Keppinger rather than Gonzalez, Kepp, or EdE. I think EdE's age and recent upswing has bought him a starting role next year. I think Gonzalez's contract keeps him at SS. So, I think that it comes down to the other three, then if Freel is healthy, he'll be here since the injury is unlikely to get him traded and contract is unlikely to get him released. If Keppinger stays then Hopper is unnecessary because Freel is basically an outfielder at that point. If Hopper stays than Kepp will be overkill on the infield. The obvious solution will be to not pick up Dunn's option and keep all three.

I'm a numbers freak, numbers freak. I'm numbers freaky, ow.

by Slyde on Sep 4, 2007 4:24 PM EDT up reply actions

I think TSF Juan Castro's contract...

Probably keeps him on the 25-man also. Here's to another year of an OPS in the teens and slick fielding.

If Krivsky doesn't exercise Adam Dunn's 2008 option, I'm a Mets fan until they fire him.

by Paul Householder on Sep 4, 2007 6:01 PM EDT up reply actions

OPS+, that is.

If Krivsky doesn't exercise Adam Dunn's 2008 option, I'm a Mets fan until they fire him.

by Paul Householder on Sep 4, 2007 6:03 PM EDT up reply actions

yay!!!

I still have to get an autograph from him!

Killer Tucans all the way!!!

by Zach K on Sep 4, 2007 6:15 PM EDT up reply actions

hmm

Two Zak,

Beast Whiches,

Yore Fried,

Juan Casto

"Two Dunn's enter, but only one Dunn will leave...unless neither do because they decide to play cards, drink beer, golf, and fish."--SlydeFrog

by Man Mountain on Sep 4, 2007 6:20 PM EDT up reply actions

Vey funnie.

gagaghahahhahgha

If Krivsky doesn't exercise Adam Dunn's 2008 option, I'm a Mets fan until they fire him.

by Paul Householder on Sep 4, 2007 8:12 PM EDT up reply actions

Geki

do you think we should trade Griffey for some young arms? It would also free a spot up for bruce in RF, i'm all for it if we can get the right players for him.

Killer Tucans all the way!!!

by Zach K on Sep 4, 2007 4:19 PM EDT reply actions

They don't even have to be young arms.

I'm all for trading Griffey, period. If we can get decent value for him, I take it. Pitching is obviously preferred, but I'd take offensive prospects as well. It's not that I don't like Junior, but I simply think that he's not likely to repeat this performance for us next year.

by Geki on Sep 4, 2007 4:59 PM EDT up reply actions

Wow I 100% agree with you!

but we are still in a blog war! grrr

Killer Tucans all the way!!!

by Zach K on Sep 4, 2007 5:20 PM EDT up reply actions

i hate you?

by Geki on Sep 4, 2007 5:21 PM EDT up reply actions

damn straight you do Dunn boi

Killer Tucans all the way!!!

by Zach K on Sep 4, 2007 5:30 PM EDT up reply actions

Griffey

I'm dead set against trading for Griffey. I say surround him with youth and make him want to stay and want to win again. And let him show off to the kids on the team.

by Brian B on Sep 5, 2007 11:04 PM EDT up reply actions

I'm also dead set against

trading for Griffey. He's already a Red. It would be redundant.

"Screw it. We've got bigger problems than a butter shortage."

by Ash on Sep 5, 2007 11:23 PM EDT up reply actions

Damn THAT'S funny - you're killling me Ash

Is Dunn done?

by Madville on Sep 5, 2007 11:35 PM EDT up reply actions

Well it's not unreasonable

to want to trade Griffey, if he has another solid season like he has this year more power to him. However, with Bruce who most think he is ready for the Majors next year and should get lots of ABs while he is up here, you make a spot in the OF for him and if you trade him to the Ms we could get some good young pitching back or as Geki said anything.

Killer Tucans all the way!!!

by Zach K on Sep 6, 2007 7:36 AM EDT up reply actions

To the Mariners

for Jeff Clement and Brandon Morrow?

by pw on Sep 6, 2007 2:57 PM EDT up reply actions

In a heartbeat.

by Geki on Sep 6, 2007 7:58 PM EDT up reply actions

Madville's verson of who stays or goes

Bronson Arroyo
Bill Bray
Jared Burton
Aaron Harang
David Weathers
David Ross
Javier Valentin
Edwin Encarnacion
Alex Gonzalez
Jeff Keppinger
Brandon Phillips
Ryan Freel
Adam Dunn
Josh Hamilton
Norris Hopper

Probable
--------
Homer Bailey
Jon Coutlangus
Gary Majewski
Matt Belisle

Questionable
-------------
Todd Coffey
Mike Stanton
Jorge Cantu
Joey Votto
Scott Hatteberg

Marcus McBeth
Brad Salmon

Doubtful or gone
--------
Phil Dumatrait
Mike Gosling
Bobby Livingston
Tom Shearn
Buck Coats
Ryan Jorgensen
Ryan Hanigan
Juan Castro

Matt Belisle has a very good chance of putting it all together next year. If he does then he is going to be a strong #3 or #4. I tend to believe that Bob's patience may just run out with Griffey.
I hope to God sweaterdick will get rid of Stanton, Gosling, Castro and yes Jr.

Has the game started yet?

by Madville on Sep 4, 2007 5:39 PM EDT reply actions

Belisle

I call bullshit on Belisle pulling it together. That's what we said this year and the year before. I see no reason why he would all of the sudden discover how to pitch between now and next February.

by bobestes on Sep 4, 2007 6:16 PM EDT up reply actions

You say Belisle, I say Bshizzle

He's a question mark, but he's never thrown this many innings in the Show, never this many starts.

I see him climbing the learning curve. He won't be GREAT, but a decent 3-4 starter, for THIS team (barring a great trade that brings in really good starter). A 4.25 to 4.6 ERA next year.
When you compare his stuff to Homer, it really isn't that different. Homer may throw a little harder, but Belisle has more experience and a better curve (and is six years older).
I think you can expect Homer (next year) to look a lot like Belisle (this year).

Witless as usual

by Lonesome George on Sep 4, 2007 7:06 PM EDT up reply actions

I think he could be a quality pitcher

He throws in the mid 90's, with a good breaking ball. We seem to forget that he is in his first season as a full time big league starter.

by justin0070000 on Sep 5, 2007 2:57 PM EDT up reply actions

Hey, I'll play! (with some notes)

(Note: Comments in plain type are Krivsky's thinking; italics are my thinking)

Locks
------
Bronson Arroyo
Bill Bray
Jared Burton
Aaron Harang
David Weathers
Jeff Keppinger (even if he flops in September)
Brandon Phillips
Josh Hamilton
Norris Hopper (too scrappy to not have a job)
Javier Valentin (dump the best pinch hitter in the game?)
David Ross (the contract makes him untradeable)
Jorge Cantu
Joey Votto/Scott Hatteberg
Alex Gonzalez (have to have that great SS defense)
Ryan Freel (you can never have too much scrappiness)
Ken Griffey (the combination of the contract and his veto power may make him almost untradable for value, or at least not worth it)

Probable
--------
Homer Bailey
Gary Majewski (he'll turn around, just wait)
Mike Stanton (he'll turn around, just wait)
Matt Belisle

Questionable
-------------
Todd Coffey
Jon Coutlangus (too many walked 1st batters)
Adam Dunn (sad, but true)
Juan Castro (can we afford to let him go?)
Edwin Encarnacion (sad, but true)
Marcus McBeth
Brad Salmon

Doubtful
--------
Phil Dumatrait
Mike Gosling
Tom Shearn
Buck Coats
Ryan Jorgensen
Ryan Hanigan
Jay Bruce (unless his hand is forced (ie, Jr's traded), Krivsky will let him languish in the minors next year)

Out
----
Jason Ellison
Bobby Livingston (it should be assumed he's out for the year. If he comes back, it'd be a bonus)
Joey Votto/Scott Hatteberg (they're the same player (unless Votto is moved to LF if Dunn's released))

just....wow.

by sidnancy on Sep 4, 2007 6:31 PM EDT reply actions

I forgot

Belisle's comment:

If he doesn't start, he'll be in the bullpen.

just....wow.

by sidnancy on Sep 4, 2007 6:33 PM EDT up reply actions

I know he isn't young

but could Tom Shearn be a potential long man in the bullpen? It is a small sample size, but if he pitches well throughout the rest of this month, he deserves somthing. He can't be any worse then guys like Victor Santos. I really want him to do that so he can get an MLB pension. Plus you just gotta pull for a guy like this.

by justin0070000 on Sep 5, 2007 8:49 PM EDT reply actions

Matt Maloney..

He sounds like a 23 year old version of Dave Williams. I hope I'm wrong. For a guy with a fastball in the upper 80s, he strikes out a lot of batters (over one per inning in his pro career). He must have really good command of his breaking ball and change, but unfortunately I haven't been to any of the team's minor league games to watch him this year.

by tonywf on Sep 6, 2007 10:46 AM EDT reply actions

Not a particularly fair comparison.

Maloney's numbers in the minors are better, but the main difference is that Dave Williams, despite how awful he was with the Reds, gave the Pirates 300 pretty solid innings before getting traded to the Reds and sucking dick for money. Honestly, a lefty with an upper-80s fastball and good curve and change is something you hear a whole lot in the realm of left-handed starters. Dave Williams is an example of this, but so is Kenny Rogers.

by Geki on Sep 6, 2007 12:10 PM EDT up reply actions

Yeah....

...but even Dave Williams and Kenny Rogers, in the bigs or the minors, never put up strikeout numbers like this. Maloney strikes out a lot of batters for a lefty with a fastball in his 80s. Either his velocity is that good, or his secondary pitches are really fooling them. I'd like to see how he does in the bigs.

by tonywf on Sep 6, 2007 4:23 PM EDT up reply actions

Tom Glavine

He topped out at 90 or so in his hay day, and he is still pretty good at 84-87. He didn't even have a great breaking ball. He just had good location, and a curvball that made him tougher on righties then lefties.

by justin0070000 on Sep 6, 2007 9:02 PM EDT up reply actions