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Adam Dunn's Season Is Finished

Adam Dunn

Dunn is having his right knee cleaned out today, so his season is now finished.

The big question now obviously is whether his 40 home runs, 106 RBI, 101 runs, 101 walks, and .264/.386/.554 line will be enough for Wayne Krivsky to pick up his (pretty cheap for the production) $13 million option.

As of last Thursday the Reds hadn't spoken to Dunn or his agent on the matter, which is a little unnerving. Exercising this option seems like such an obvious move that it's tough to understand why the Reds haven't already announced it or given some indication of what they plan on doing. I can't imagine that waiting until the last minute on these kinds of things doesn't do anything but breed confusion and possibly ill will.

The only logical explanations, are that the Reds either aren't planning on picking up the option or still haven't decided what they are doing. Both are frightening propositions. But then it still seems like such an obvious decision that I have a hard time believing the Reds really could screw it up.

But we'll see. I've got my fingers crossed because Dunn just had a hell of a season, and I'd rather not see him playing somewhere else so that Krivsky can afford to sign three or four scrubs to fill out the back of the bullpen.

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He won't be back
It's just a feeling i have, but it seems to me the combination of Votto playing left field, the acquisition of Cantu, the solid play of Hatteberg, and now the (probably) complete destruction of Griffey's trade value are all indicators that the reds are going to cut ties with Dunn.

Just a feeling.

by Pete on Sep 26, 2007 8:20 AM EDT reply actions  

id have to agree with this feeling
and you know what? thats fine with me, having votto hamilton bruce and griffy and hopper in the outfield doesnt bother me. I believe votto giffy hamilton and burce can more than make up the void filled by letting dunn go. But i deffinatly would like to see his option picked up so we can at least trade him after june 15th for some piching.
"strikeouts are usually a bad thing"

by Shortstop2 on Sep 26, 2007 2:19 PM EDT up reply actions  

This is great.
There seems to be a notion that Griffey, Votto, Bruce, Hamilton and Hopper can make up Dunn's lost production.

I think this is a case for Slyde to tell us just what that gang of five would have to do to make up for Dunn's production.

As it stands, the group would have to add 40 HR and 100+ RBIs to what they already produce (or would be replacing, in the case of Votto and Bruce).

Right off the bat, you'd need Griffey to produce 40 HRs and not get injured, which is not very likely, in my opinion.

by bobestes on Sep 26, 2007 2:31 PM EDT up reply actions  

re
its not likely griffey can reproduce what he did this season. there is no way our offense is as good next year without dunn
Marty may have a shirt on, but Billy Beane just ripped his off and is squeezing his nipples. - Brendan's ukkah

by boobs on Sep 26, 2007 3:27 PM EDT up reply actions  

uh
Hamilton only played half of the games and had 20 hrs. I think he alone could take dunns numbers,
"strikeouts are usually a bad thing"

by Shortstop2 on Sep 26, 2007 11:20 PM EDT up reply actions  

plus
he doesn't drink before games...lol
"strikeouts are usually a bad thing"

by Shortstop2 on Sep 26, 2007 11:22 PM EDT up reply actions  

Hamilton
If you think Hamilton will play more than 100 games next year, I've got some oceanfront property in arizona I'd like to sell you.

by bobestes on Sep 26, 2007 11:29 PM EDT up reply actions  

Even ss2
believes in picking up the option. This is a slam dunk, Wayne.
"Two Dunn's enter, but only one Dunn will leave...unless neither do because they decide to play cards, drink beer, golf, and fish."--SlydeFrog

by Man Mountain on Sep 26, 2007 2:36 PM EDT up reply actions  

i take that personaly
my mom told me to
"strikeouts are usually a bad thing"

by Shortstop2 on Sep 26, 2007 11:21 PM EDT up reply actions  

Is there a rush?
When is the deadline for picking up the option?  The decision to keep or release Dunn is the first piece to the puzzle of where the Reds are headed.  You either go with the build around Dunn strategy or the release Dunn and build long term strategy.  Giving ownership the benefit of the doubt, they may want to wait as long as possible to collect all the data on their younger players, the free agency market, who the next manager will be, etc.. and then make the big Dunn decision.  I have to think the decision is between agreeing to a longer-term extension with Dunn or droping him now.  Signing him for one more year is just a punt, putting off any long-term planning.
Quick! Somebody make a Cincinnati loves Ken Griffey Jr. too! video

by TheC on Sep 26, 2007 8:59 AM EDT reply actions  

Option vs. Long Term
I agree that I think they are probably discussing the possibility of a long term deal, internally at least.  They may not have discussed it with Dunn yet, or maybe Dunn has been asked to be mum about it.  Haven't most of the extensions (Harang, Arroyo, Freel) been out of nowhere?  I think this is just Krivsky's style, always playing things close to the sweater.

All that being said, I don't know what the harm is in announcing that the option has been picked up.  Unless the Reds think that Dunn isn't worth more than 2 draft picks and they are planning on the whole buyout, offer arb and hope he turns it down route.  Picking up the option at the very least gives them another chance to trade him next summer.  I think letting him walk is the absolute worst thing they can do.

I'm a numbers freak, numbers freak. I'm numbers freaky, ow.

by Slyde on Sep 26, 2007 9:17 AM EDT up reply actions  

Krivsky is just shady
we all give him a bad rap, but in all seriousness the guy is not dumb enough to let Dunn walk.

 A long term deal is in the works and Dunn will average around 15 mil for the next four years.

by jacob brumfield on Sep 26, 2007 9:29 AM EDT up reply actions  

Lunch with Castellini
I can't believe that Castellini would have lunch with Adam and then tell him he doesn't want him around anymore.

by pw on Sep 26, 2007 9:00 AM EDT reply actions  

sure the Reds may want him around long-term
but does dunn want to live another 4-5 years of brennamania?  i dont doubt the Reds want him, and they probably would even pay him the money he deserves, but i think we are all assuming that dunn would sign anything decent on the table.  i dont know.  there is a possibility that he hates cinci and all the jerks employed there.

i really dont like being mr. pessimistic here, but its something to think about when speculating about this situation.  personally, i really think they will get the deal done.  i have faith in wayner on this one, even if he doesnt deserve it.

at least this isnt pittsburgh

by Charlie Scrabbles on Sep 26, 2007 9:56 AM EDT up reply actions  

Maybe
Dunn would like to prove to the Brennamans that he has more clout than they do. And maybe he's learned from Jr. that it's not so easy to go home (to Texas in his case). Why leave now when the Reds' future is looking so much brighter.

by pw on Sep 26, 2007 12:06 PM EDT up reply actions  

A couple of years ago
A young lady invited me to lunch to tell me she didn't want me around anymore. So I ordered a double gin and tonic and dessert.
"Two Dunn's enter, but only one Dunn will leave...unless neither do because they decide to play cards, drink beer, golf, and fish."--SlydeFrog

by Man Mountain on Sep 26, 2007 2:31 PM EDT up reply actions  

Indigestion?
Good thing you kept it light.

by pw on Sep 26, 2007 2:38 PM EDT up reply actions  

don't hyperventilate
He'll be back. Castellini is of the opinion that the team is "this close" and you don't drop your biggest run-producer if you think you're "this close".

I think the players understand that the club has a policy of not doing options and extensions in the middle of the season. The last company I worked for didn't give raises until January. Policy is policy.

by bobestes on Sep 26, 2007 10:54 AM EDT reply actions  

Good point on Castellini
Not so sure on the club policy though.  I know DanO was adamant about not doing deals midseason, but both Freel's and Coffey's were announced in April.  Surely they were working on them before then, but I'm not sure if Krivsky has the same policy as DanO.  However, a long-term deal with someone like Dunn, when he's not at risk of being a free agent, is probably best suited for the off-season.  It is a huge decision.
I'm a numbers freak, numbers freak. I'm numbers freaky, ow.

by Slyde on Sep 26, 2007 11:16 AM EDT up reply actions  

well
Krivsky sounds a little more flexible than DanO, who seemed to live by arbitrary rules. Obviously, buying out someone's arbitration is a little different than going to war with your slugger, who thinks he should be paid like Carlos Lee, but who you want to pay like (fill in the blank).

That stuff always works better in the offseason, you have time to get over getting your feelings hurt (hey, it happens), before getting back to work.

Personally, I'd like to see Dunn back if only for the fact that the dude NEVER GETS HURT. I mean, he's a frickin Ox out there. Compare him to Hamilton; I'll be willing to bet that we'll be lucky to get 100 games a year out of that guy.

by bobestes on Sep 26, 2007 11:49 AM EDT up reply actions  

A couple of thoughts....

When Krivsky came, his first order of business was to get Adam signed to a decent offer. I think Krivsky is aware of Dunn's value.

It's interesting to contrast Dunn's situation with the rush to lock up mediocrities like Juan Castro, Todd Coffey and Ryan Freel.

The timing of Dunn's surgery is fascinating. Anybody see this coming? Anybody hear rumblings about Adam needing this done? There are several beat writers following the team...Did any of them happen to mention this? 6 games left and they're hoping to get to third or at least not sink to fifth and they sit their best hitter for the rest of the year?

Did he decide to sit because he had hit his numeric milestones and he doesn't have a future here or did the reds see Junior go down and say..."Hey big guy, why don't you just take it easy for the rest of the year."

Is is possible that Krivsky wanted to wait till the surgery was done before offering a deal? or picking up the option?

Just FWIW, Hatteberg's option has also not been picked up. Traditionally teams don't pick up options till the end of the season. Don't want to pick up an option and then have a guy get hurt.

by dfs on Sep 26, 2007 11:46 AM EDT reply actions  

From the sound of it
Dunn's surgery is like getting your radiator flushed and filled. Routine maintenance.

I need to get my radiator flushed and filled.

by bobestes on Sep 26, 2007 11:52 AM EDT up reply actions  

Ok. It's routine.
Why do it with 6 games left? Who made the choice?

by dfs on Sep 26, 2007 12:36 PM EDT up reply actions  

why wait?
they know it needs done, and he's not going to play with it, so just get it done and start rehabing.
at least this isnt pittsburgh

by Charlie Scrabbles on Sep 26, 2007 12:41 PM EDT up reply actions  

I had my knee scoped last Nov.
It took about 2 weeks to be back to 100% and I no pro athlete. There not much rehabbing on a simple clean out.
How long 'til Spring Training?

by Madville on Sep 27, 2007 1:41 AM EDT up reply actions  

it has been reported
dunn's knee has been bothering him for a couple of weeks now - all of the beat writers have reported this.

by Daedalus on Sep 26, 2007 12:28 PM EDT up reply actions  

here
is a pretty good read about the 1993 giants and their race with the braves.

http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/eticket/story?page=93pennant&lpos=spotlight&lid=tab1pos1

Marty may have a shirt on, but Billy Beane just ripped his off and is squeezing his nipples. - Brendan's ukkah

by boobs on Sep 26, 2007 4:03 PM EDT reply actions  

sadness
I miss the non-geographically accurate NL West

by bobestes on Sep 26, 2007 4:05 PM EDT up reply actions  

lol
its because the boston red sox used to be the boston braves
Marty may have a shirt on, but Billy Beane just ripped his off and is squeezing his nipples. - Brendan's ukkah

by boobs on Sep 26, 2007 4:15 PM EDT up reply actions  

MLB according to
Dane Cook:  Before the Sox were the Sox, they were the Boston Braves ....

by ken on Sep 27, 2007 8:33 AM EDT up reply actions  

It's here!
Check out that outfield!

Hopper cf
Keppinger ss
Votto 1b
Phillips 2b
Encarnacion 3b
Valentin c
Coats lf
Ellison rf
Shearn p

I'm a numbers freak, numbers freak. I'm numbers freaky, ow.

by Slyde on Sep 26, 2007 4:40 PM EDT reply actions  

Chickens have come home to roost
Ok, Cincinnati small ball fans, you got it!

Let's see how your boys do!

by bobestes on Sep 26, 2007 4:45 PM EDT up reply actions  

over/under is 2 runs scored tonight
and i'll give you a solo shot from votto/EdE/phillips.
at least this isnt pittsburgh

by Charlie Scrabbles on Sep 26, 2007 6:48 PM EDT up reply actions  

Dunn and Castellini
Whether or not Dunn's option is picked up, I think that this is Castellini's call.

Wait for an announcement of a meeting of the ownership partners of the Reds (after the season, after the World Series, most likely), and then sometime after that, the option or a new deal with Dunn will be announced.
Krivsky makes the deals,etc. but Bob and the ownership group hold the purse strings.  This option thing is above Krivsky's pay grade. He may make a recommendation, but it's really not his call. The option or a new contract is still millions of dollars, and that's the owners' money.

My karma just ran over your dogma

by Lonesome George on Sep 26, 2007 4:59 PM EDT reply actions  

Yep
Bob is not an insanely wealthy rich person. By that, I mean, he's not Mark Cuban or Dan Snyder. If he needs more money, it has to come from his ownership group.

by bobestes on Sep 26, 2007 5:18 PM EDT up reply actions  

"but it's really not his call"
am I the only person put at peace by this comment??

by jacob brumfield on Sep 26, 2007 5:34 PM EDT up reply actions  

In Communist Russia....
Dunn picks up your option...
The Reds and the Radio...They're on it.

by chandrathan on Sep 26, 2007 6:20 PM EDT reply actions  

All your options
belong to us, comrade!
My karma just ran over your dogma

by Lonesome George on Sep 26, 2007 8:17 PM EDT up reply actions  

letting Dunn go
yeah go ahead Reds let him go. Frank Robinson was an old 30, Tony Perez could easily be replaced by a younger and cheaper guy, and Eric Davis couldn't produce because he didn't play all the time.

Don't do it Cincinnati

Hope Springs Eternal! Go Reds

by Caleb on Sep 26, 2007 6:28 PM EDT reply actions  

Not as easy a call as it looks
I want to see Dunn stay.  But I think 15 million for 4 is way short of what he's going to get.  Soriano got 18 million for 8.  Dunn will get 17-18 for at least 6 years.  Like it or not, that's money that's not going to pitching and 20% of payroll for one player.  On the other hand, I don't think we should pretend we can replace his offense.  We can't and we almost surely will see decline from Griffey next year.  If all they do is pick up the option for next year, at 13 million, will there be enough money to spend for competitive pitching?  If not, seems to me the most sensible course is to exercise the option, play Dunn until it's clear the team's not competitive, and then try to get something for him.  

by HokieRed on Sep 26, 2007 10:42 PM EDT reply actions  

15/per
I have a hunch Dunn would take 5 years, $15/per

(assumption based on nothing)

by bobestes on Sep 26, 2007 11:32 PM EDT up reply actions  

im with you
i sense an air of incredulity regarding dunn's worth.  i think most folks around baseball see him as a bit less than carlos lee (notice how i dont say these baseball folks are all the smart).  so 15/5 seems reasonable.  perhaps an option year or two worth 17 apiece?  he'd probably roll with that.  but again, this notion is based on absolutely nothing but my own intuition, which once told me that spin doctors were going to be the biggest band of their era.
at least this isnt pittsburgh

by Charlie Scrabbles on Sep 26, 2007 11:49 PM EDT up reply actions  

not much of a money grubber
I just think Dunn would be cool with a 5 year contract paying him 15 mil per, because he doesn't strike me as one of those guys trying to break the bank. Which is an opinion totally not based in any fact.

by bobestes on Sep 27, 2007 8:26 AM EDT up reply actions  

Seems to me...
...that it's not correct to say that the only options for waiting is because they don't know what to do or they aren't sure. One of Krivsky's undeniable strengths has been contracts and negotiations. Look at what he accomplished with Dunn within a few days of his hire--the longer-term deal that O'Brien could not accomplish or would not consider. Look at Harang and Arroyo's contracts--great deals, considering what these guys would fetch on the open market (watch Lohse get as much or more than Harang this winter). So, there's evidence to suggest that there might be more than stupidity or indecision at work.

It seems to me that they might want to lock up Dunn long-term this winter. Such negotiations often take place in the off-season. I wouldn't be surprised to see Dunn get 5 years at $15 million per, with some trade protection. And it would be a great deal.

Oh, and Milton's salary will be off the rolls. I think that's a factor in waiting--let's wait until the money is actually available, then let's get him long-term.

by jamesp50014 on Sep 27, 2007 8:07 AM EDT reply actions  

I hope Dunns Knee is ok
Cause When Sweaterpants gives him that contract extension I still want 150+ games from my highest paid player. I think it is odd he gets hurt when he is good shape rather than when he was a fatty last year.
Killer Tucans all the way!!!

by Zach K on Sep 27, 2007 9:33 AM EDT reply actions  

anyone hear george foster last night?
saying he didn't want to be "controversial" but dunn needs to be signed to a long term contract?  he said it on air on television!  people heard it!

i believe they will give him a four year deal this winter with an option for a fifth.

by Daedalus on Sep 27, 2007 10:33 AM EDT reply actions  

I'm afraid that won't be long enough
Given the length of the Soriano and Lee contracts, I have a feeling that Dunn will want to be signed through 2013 or 2014.  I don't know if money will be the issue because like others, I don't get the impression that Dunn is out for the big bucks.  And if he wants to stay in Cincinnati, he has to know that he can't break the bank and expect the team to stay competitive.

The question I see on it is whether he really wants to stay in Cincinnati for a long time (before the summer I wouldn't have doubted that, now I'm not so sure).  And whether the Reds are willing to give him the length of contract that others were getting.

Personally, I'm afraid of anything longer than 4 years guaranteed, but other GMs can't seem to control themselves.

I'm a numbers freak, numbers freak. I'm numbers freaky, ow.

by Slyde on Sep 27, 2007 10:54 AM EDT up reply actions  

On the other hand
as I think this out, Dunn may be willing to take a shorter contract since that will just mean that he gets to negotiate another contract in 5 years when he's 32.  Since both Lee and Soriano were over 30, they may have demanded longer deals since they won't have the luxury of getting another contract at a young age if they settled for just 4 or 5 years.

Just thinking out loud.

I'm a numbers freak, numbers freak. I'm numbers freaky, ow.

by Slyde on Sep 27, 2007 10:58 AM EDT up reply actions  

I haven't mentioned this yet
but I don't feel good about offering Dunn a LTC. Picking up the option is obvious, but I'll never slam the club for letting a 29 year old first basemen-type leave for big bucks. Maybe this is just my exhaustion with the whole Dunn debate. All this four year talk including the option year is fine, but I doubt it can get done.

by Red Menace on Sep 27, 2007 2:38 PM EDT up reply actions  

Maybe
Just maybe, this was the topic of the infamous "lunch":  Why would Dunn, who's been the subjuct of so much derision, want to stay in Cinci long term?

If I'm Adam, I'm asking this question, and hoping for a really good answer; something along the lines of "Look, we're still trying to get a handle on this thing.  But we've got a good core of young players now, a ton of money is coming off the books by the end of next year, and we think the next couple of free agent markets might produce a couple of guys who'll help us long-term.  With you as the cornerstone, we think we can be the best team in the league over the next 5 years; without you, we're going to continue to struggle."  

If that's not the answer, my reply is "Do what you want; I'm going somewhere next year that actually likes good ballplayers on their team."

just....wow.

by sidnancy on Sep 27, 2007 12:34 PM EDT up reply actions  

lol I hope it didn't change anyones mind
it is kind of sad when people have to have a former player tell them "the right thing" a team should do and think that what he or she has to say is 100% right.
Killer Tucans all the way!!!

by Zach K on Sep 27, 2007 3:25 PM EDT up reply actions  

I agree with everything George Foster says
it's my one rule in life, just like George requested.
"Two Dunn's enter, but only one Dunn will leave...unless neither do because they decide to play cards, drink beer, golf, and fish."--SlydeFrog

by Man Mountain on Sep 27, 2007 4:50 PM EDT up reply actions  

Foster...
...is a bad example, especially after the Mets signed him, but Dunn is much younger and the upside greater than Foster's after the 1981 season (nothing against the man who hit over a dozen red seat dingers in old Riverfront Stadium).  I hope they do sign Adam, but as the other folk stated four years does not seem like enough.  Most players in his position are going to want to cash in with a long-term, guaranteed contract.  Of course, this is Cincinnati, not New York, so it's up in the air if he wants to stay.

by tonywf on Sep 29, 2007 4:28 AM EDT up reply actions  

Question
If any of us could get a six or seven year deal for somewhere between 15 and 18 million dollars or a four year deal for the same money, how many of us would take the four year deal?  

by HokieRed on Sep 27, 2007 10:42 PM EDT reply actions  

It depends
Do I know for certain that I can get 6 or 7 years or do I think I can get 6 or 7 years?  I'd have a hard time turning down a 4 year deal that was in my lap because I thought I could get 2 more years a year from now, as long I don't get hurt or have an off year production-wise.  (Does that sentence make sense?)
I'm a numbers freak, numbers freak. I'm numbers freaky, ow.

by Slyde on Sep 27, 2007 10:48 PM EDT up reply actions  

What if
you had to wait a year to sign a 6-7 year deal, and that you were fairly certain but not positive that you'd get it?  

by ken on Sep 27, 2007 10:49 PM EDT up reply actions  

I already said that
1 minute and 16 seconds ago, ken. :P
I'm a numbers freak, numbers freak. I'm numbers freaky, ow.

by Slyde on Sep 27, 2007 10:50 PM EDT up reply actions  

Your folks
must have a T1 in the garage.

by ken on Sep 27, 2007 10:56 PM EDT up reply actions  

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