What Ryan's Departure Tells Us About Krivsky

by jamesp50014 on Sep 13, 2007 1:42 PM EDT

While Terry Ryan did a spectacular job in his own right as Twins' GM, the article about his departure on ESPN noted the difficulty he has had in signing veterans to long-term contracts since Krivsky departed (Santana, Hunter, Morneau, etc.). I know Krivsky handled this department, and ably, it seems. Just look at the contracts for Dunn, Harang and Arroyo. I think this is one aspect of his job performance that doesn't get a lot of attention. I am really pleased with this aspect of his job performance, and moreover I think it's an important part of the job.

And I think Dunn gets paid. Another extension. He'll hit #500 in a Cincinnati uniform.

Do you think Phillips gets an extension this winter? How many years and how much money?

Poll

What kind of contract will Phillips get this winter?

Arbitration, 1-year deal

17 votes

4 years, $45 million

18 votes

6 years $55 million

5 votes

5 years, $50 million

6 votes

7 years, $65 million

1 votes

Wait--isn't that SS money?

4 votes

51 votes | Poll has closed

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Comments

Phillips

He won't make that much. His contract will be adjusted for the fact that he's still got 3 years of arbitration if he signs an extension this off-season. I think he'd get something like 4 years, $25 million at the most this off-season.

I'm a numbers freak, numbers freak. I'm numbers freaky, ow.

by Slyde on Sep 13, 2007 1:48 PM EDT reply actions

I bet

Rheal Comier, Mike Stanton, David Ross, Eddie Gordado and Juan Castro also love how well Krivsky does at this part of his job.

How many Twins did Krivsky ink to LTD's during his tenure in Minnisota?

Free agents who left under Krivsky's watch....
Shannon Stewart
Jacque Jones
A. J. Pierznyski
Kenny Rogers
David Ortiz
Javier Valentin

...and those who stayed?
Torii Hunter
Johan Santana

Seems like at best a mixed bag.

Rock Chalk Talk for pretty good KU baseball coverage

by James Quinn on Sep 13, 2007 2:29 PM EDT reply actions

Ortiz....

Is the only one that was really worth keeping. And Ryan admitted sometime in the past that they (the Twins' management) underestimated (potential) Ortiz' abilities, after he left. But his power only blossomed after he left the Twins, too.

Tough call.

And I think that the diary is a fair description of Wayne's contribution, that he doen't get enough credit for.

My karma just ran over your dogma

by Lonesome George on Sep 13, 2007 3:24 PM EDT up reply actions

It's too bad for the Twins....

that Ortiz didn't start taking "special vitamins" (as Lenny Dykstra once called them) until after he left Minnesota. It always shocks me that one of the most obvious abusers of performance enhancers (with the giant head to match) in the game is given a free pass.

The lesson with Bonds / Big Papi is this: be nice to the media. If you are nice to them, they will cover for you and pretend it's all "natural". If you are a jerkoff, they will hound you. PR is everything.

Joey has been freed! Now let's keep it that way.

by ucclark on Sep 13, 2007 3:59 PM EDT up reply actions

Papi

The common wisdom is that he didn't develop his power stroke because the Twins as an organization coach their youngsters to make contact at the expense of power. This could be wrong, but then again the Twins didn't develop a true power hitter for some time until Morneau.

by ken on Sep 13, 2007 4:54 PM EDT up reply actions

"big papi"

is it just me, or is this a really stupid nickname? whatever happened to "the yankee clipper" and the "splendid splinter" and "big poison"? now it seems like journalists arent even trying. a-rod? k-rod? manny being manny? puh-lease!!!! you are just shortening the dudes name!! "pronk" is the only decent nickname ive heard in a long time. big donkey is ok, but nothing to write home about. maybe all the good nicknames have been used up, but i think its just that the journalists who make this shit up are too dumb.

at least this isnt pittsburgh

by Charlie Scrabbles on Sep 13, 2007 9:04 PM EDT up reply actions

How's about

we start nicknaming the journalists, talkinging heads et. al.? Shall we?

I'll start: George "GODDAMNMUTHAFORKINBLANDSUNSHINEENEMA" Grande....Chris "'STACHEBEHIDINTHESTRETCHMARKS" Welch

Where have you gone Alex Trevino?

by Pops Daniels on Sep 14, 2007 10:21 AM EDT up reply actions

eh, its good. but not great.

at least this isnt pittsburgh

by Charlie Scrabbles on Sep 14, 2007 10:41 AM EDT up reply actions

Not to nitpick

But AJ was traded to the Giants for Joe Nathan and Boof Bonser, no? I'd do that again. Also, they had Mauer in the pipe by then (I think).

And while he kinda screwed up with Ortiz, they did replace Papi with Morneau, which has worked out.

by jch24 on Sep 13, 2007 3:31 PM EDT up reply actions

That trade brought to

the Twins Nathan, Bonser and Francisco Liriano. Quite a haul.

We Are ... Marshall!

by Thundering Turtle on Sep 13, 2007 4:07 PM EDT up reply actions

yeah i think phillips will get somewhere

close to what harang got. the harang contract is a great tool in krivsky's utility belt. i really happy with the way he's handled contract stuff (dunn's option not withstanding). lets just hope he can do what needs done and do it right.

at least this isnt pittsburgh

by Charlie Scrabbles on Sep 13, 2007 2:30 PM EDT reply actions

I'd guess that it'd be much less

since 2B make much less than SP. Also, Harang's deal bought out two years of arb, whereas a BP deal this winter could buy out all 3.

by ken on Sep 13, 2007 2:57 PM EDT up reply actions

Jose Reyes might be a good comparison point.

He got 4 years, $23.5 million with an option for a fifth year. He was at the same point in terms of service time that Brandon is now, I believe.

by Geki on Sep 13, 2007 3:31 PM EDT reply actions

Reyes

I forgot about his contract:
4-year EXTENSION thru 2010 worth $23.25M- + he receives a $1.5M signing bonus and salaries of $2.5M in 2007, $4M in 2008, $5.75M in 2009 and $9M in 2010- + the deal includes a Team Option for 2011 worth $11M or a $500K buyout- + he receives a hotel suite on the road (if the hotel has such accomadations)- + bonuses he has earned: $50K for 2007 All-Star

I could see BP getting something along those lines, but maybe a little bit less because of the market and because BP is lower profile than Reyes. I adjust my prediction to 4 years, $22 million.

I'm a numbers freak, numbers freak. I'm numbers freaky, ow.

by Slyde on Sep 13, 2007 3:53 PM EDT up reply actions

For some reason...

I'm not 100% sold on BP. I'm not exactly sure why.

I think it may be that he sort of defies classification with respect to his offense, and it is a bit difficult to figure out exactly what his role is in the lineup.

Although he has good speed, he doesn't take a walk or get on base like a guy you want to bat first or second in the order in front of the RBI guys. He also does hit into an awful lot of double plays because he is such a free swinger. Jose Reyes, because he really causes complete havoc on the basepaths and because he has learned to take a walk, is much easier to classify.

Although he has decent power, he doesn't strike me as a guy the opposing manager (other than LaRussa, who did it to EdE to get to Votto!??!) will intentionally walk in a crucial late-game high-leverage situation. Reds examples include Dunn, Griffey (at times), Greg Vaughn, Eric Davis, Dave Parker and the like.

That makes his offense good for a middle infielder, but not the guy you can build an offense around. I get the sense (perhaps because he is such a free swinger and strikes out a fair bit), that he's just a pitcher's adjustment or two away from being a not so good hitter.

He plays good defense, although I've read on RR that most metrics say he's pretty average. Is that still true?

All the measurables point to giving the guy a deal that is less than that for Reyes (who is two years younger), but not by much.

Not sure why I don't feel good about it though. It could be that he's not a great baseball guy.

If Krivsky doesn't exercise Adam Dunn's 2008 option, I'm a Mets fan until they fire him.

by Paul Householder on Sep 14, 2007 1:47 PM EDT up reply actions

Blasphemy!

He signed my ball on the sweet spot, so he's the best player ever!

I love the Reds no matter what!

by Daedalus on Sep 14, 2007 2:22 PM EDT up reply actions

What if...

I could get you a slightly-used Royce Clayton baseball bat? Would he be your favorite player then? I happen to know a guy...

If Krivsky doesn't exercise Adam Dunn's 2008 option, I'm a Mets fan until they fire him.

by Paul Householder on Sep 14, 2007 2:34 PM EDT up reply actions

Hmm...

If I could use that bat on Clayton, then maybe...

I love the Reds no matter what!

by Daedalus on Sep 14, 2007 4:57 PM EDT up reply actions

I bet Ash...

Would participate in the festivities too, and you could even invite Ryan Franklin also.

If Krivsky doesn't exercise Adam Dunn's 2008 option, I'm a Mets fan until they fire him.

by Paul Householder on Sep 14, 2007 5:59 PM EDT up reply actions

I'm 100% sold on BP!

I don't care what metrics say about his Defense you see him play everyday he is the best Defensive IF this team has had since p-Reese! He is about to have a 30-30 season and only one guy has done that before and that one guy makes a shitload more, is also a free swinger and BP is 10x the IF Soriano ever was.

Lets recap BP 30-30, .270-.280 hitter, Gold Glove Defense...what is there not to be sold on.

Also what does it take to be a baseball guy?

Killer Tucans all the way!!!

by Zach K on Sep 14, 2007 2:29 PM EDT up reply actions

The fact that you are supporting him blindly

My friend, speaks for itself in proving my point.

If Krivsky doesn't exercise Adam Dunn's 2008 option, I'm a Mets fan until they fire him.

by Paul Householder on Sep 14, 2007 2:31 PM EDT up reply actions

How am I supporting him blindly?

Killer Tucans all the way!!!

by Zach K on Sep 14, 2007 2:40 PM EDT up reply actions

You're not analyzing the stats

You're looking at 30 home runs and 30 SB and his batting average without looking beyond those metrics to see if that level is sustainable or just a fluke.

First, looking at batting average to judge the value of a player without considering OBP or SLG is a huge flaw in your methodology.

Second, I think what makes me uncomfortable with giving the guy a huge contract is perhaps the conventional wisdom that players who do not have plate discipline tend not to succeed long-term. I am no statistician, so I wonder whether that bit of conventional wisdom is true or not.

However, if you look at the best offensive players, most do not have 30 walks to 90 strikeouts over the course of a 500-600 AB season. To wit:

A-Rod: 84-103
Pujols: 90-56
Bonds: 131-54
Chipper Jones: 70-70
Magglio Ordonez: 71-76
Prince Fielder: 72-105
Chase Utley: 47-76 (a good comp for BP)
Hanley Ramirez: 47-88 (also a good comp)
Miguel Cabrera: 69-115
Vlad Guerrero: 65-59
Ryan Howard: 89-180
David Wright: 88-109
Dunn: 94-156
Griffey: 85-88

Third, a gold glove does not mean what it used to mean (and maybe never meant a lot). That is why I am looking for fielding metrics, not having had the luxury of actually seeing him play every day.

If you look at BP's Runs Created/27, he is at 5.54, good for 85th in MLB and 11th among second basemen. Jose Reyes is at 6.23, and Chase Utley (tops among 2B) has a 9.11.

What I am saying is that merely saying "30-30 with a .280 average and a gold glove" is not enough for me.

If Krivsky doesn't exercise Adam Dunn's 2008 option, I'm a Mets fan until they fire him.

by Paul Householder on Sep 14, 2007 3:17 PM EDT up reply actions

Wow this is where I hate Stats

They are very important in baseball but BP is a real solid player and I agree with you with the gold glove. But I ment that you watch him and how he makes the tough plays look so easy he is good at defense.

Killer Tucans all the way!!!

by Zach K on Sep 14, 2007 11:07 PM EDT up reply actions

Not saying much

he is the best Defensive IF this team has had since p-Reese

This statement says more about the Reds infielders since Reese than it says about Phillips. Unless you think D'Angelo Jiminez, Filipe Lopez, and 40 year old Barry Larkin were good defenders.

Lets recap BP 30-30, .270-.280 hitter, Gold Glove Defense...what is there not to be sold on.

How about the fact that even with all of those homers, his SLG is still under .500? Or the fact that even hitting for that average with all of those homers his OPS+ is still only 105? Or the fact that he's shown a couple of brief flashes of the assholishness that got him shipped out of Cleveland in the first place?

just....wow.

by sidnancy on Sep 14, 2007 3:09 PM EDT up reply actions

Agreed.

You've put your finger on some of the reasons for my discomfort.

If Krivsky doesn't exercise Adam Dunn's 2008 option, I'm a Mets fan until they fire him.

by Paul Householder on Sep 14, 2007 3:26 PM EDT up reply actions

Those are some good points

but whats stats don't show is his plate coverage, He fouls off tough pitches and I know you can bring up the pitches seen stat but even that doesn't tell how many tough pitches he fouls off. I think only Uggla{I think thats how you spell it} and Utley are better than Phillips.

Killer Tucans all the way!!!

by Zach K on Sep 14, 2007 11:04 PM EDT up reply actions

I think you're worshiping

the God of the gaps.

by Red Menace on Sep 15, 2007 2:26 AM EDT up reply actions

haha ofcourse

Killer Tucans all the way!!!

by Zach K on Sep 15, 2007 8:01 AM EDT up reply actions

Phillips the Hitter

You're right--Phillips is difficult to classify but not impossible. I see him in more the Chase Utley/Jeff Kent mold as an offensive player, which is not to say that he has reached their standards yet.

I think he's a good and aggressive hitter, a bit straeky, but so long as his batting average hovers near .280, I don't care. I also don't mind his low OBP is his power numbers remain high--averaging 20 homers p[er year, let's say. That makes him a legitimate right-handed RBI man in the middle of your lineup. Remember, they started Enacarnacion at cleanup this year, and he couldn't hack it. Would love to see BP's HRs and RBIs since moving into that slot.

So, I do see him as a run producer. I still think they envision Encarnacion as the eventual cleanup guy. Where does that put BP?

by jamesp50014 on Sep 14, 2007 2:31 PM EDT up reply actions

I have no idea

The reds have very few players who have their own spot in the line up. Griffey is 3rd, Dunn5th{though he should be batting 4th}, Hopper 1st, Ross 8th. Other than that you can have a line up one day Jeff K hits 2nd, Hatty 6th, Gonzo 7th, the next day Gonzo 2nd, Jeff K 6th, Cantu 7th the offense has played well so I don't mind. I see BP and Alfanso Soriano very similar offensively,both are free swingers, hit for power and steal bases. Soriano takes more walks and had that monster year with the nats but I think BP can get to his level soon.

Killer Tucans all the way!!!

by Zach K on Sep 14, 2007 2:39 PM EDT up reply actions

BP

Wow, this seems to have sparked some excitement. My comp, fwiw, would be Jimmy Rollins. High avg, low walks, good power and speed. The lack of patience is really all that prevents BP from being a star. As it is, he's already 2nd best 2B in the NL by VORP (though just barely above Kent). I was a little worried that pitchers would adjust to him this year, but it hasn't happened.

I'm not going to pretend that I perfectly understand the new-fangled fielding metrics, but from what I've seen he's performed at a high level this year - a step up from 2006. JinAZ has broken down the fielding stats by month and had some nice things to say about BP. Whether you're looking at in-zone or out-of-zone plays (per THT), BP rates well. Which jibes with what I've seen.

by ken on Sep 14, 2007 2:58 PM EDT up reply actions

Phillips & Kriv

Clearly, this is one area where Krivsky has excelled, both with MN and again in CIN. Smart money says he locks up Phillips this winter.

I think mentioning the AJ thing was one of the most lopsided trades of my lifetime is a valid point. Was no DFA. Ryan made some mistakes, but his tenure was incredibly successful. the AJ trade was a a reason why.

I like investing in Phillips as a core guy. He's shown me enough. I think Dunn has accomplished the same. Biggest season of his career (and not a contract year). A legit top guy in the NL. Worth another contract. This eases Bruce into Griffey's slot, or creates competition between him and Hamilton--which would be an epic battle, and fun to watch.

by jamesp50014 on Sep 13, 2007 4:51 PM EDT reply actions