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Around SBN: Falcons and Chargers Recap: The Win Is The Thing Bar-right-arrows



Dig in, Folks

Here is CTrent quoting Bob Castellini re: our good friend, yet incompetent GM, Wayne Krivsky:

"Wayne's a plugger. He's a plugger. He just keeps after it. A lot of determination."

"I think Wayne is taking a studied approach to everything," Castellini said. "We're on the same page."

Is Krivsky's job in jeopardy? "No."

"He's done a good job overall," Castellini said. "He's trying really hard, we're all trying hard."

How comforting.

Using the Pittsburgh Pirates as my historical model, this is how I see it playing out:

2007 - Lucky to finish 4th place
2008 - Pete Mackanin steers the Redlegs to another 4th place finish (let's be honest, has an interim-to-permanent manager here ever done better?)
2009 - Mackanin fired, someone else manages the team to a fourth place finish
2010 - Kriv dawg fired, start the clock on another three year plan
2011 - Year two of three year plan
2012 - Oops, THAT didn't work. Start another three year plan.
2013 - Year one of three year plan
2014 - Year two of three year plan
2015 - Year three of three year plan. Playoffs?

0 recs | Comment 29 comments

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stop it
you are scaring the children.

Crolfer, this is just a bad dream

Hope Springs Eternal! Go Reds

by Caleb on Aug 9, 2007 9:48 AM EDT   0 recs

The children can wait until 2015
its the "old" guys that need to see some winning already.
This situation reminds me of a scene in the movie "New Jack City"... (-Deion Sanders)

by satyanaas on Aug 9, 2007 11:15 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

It does kinda feel like they're teetering
doesn't it?  The Hardball Times had an article yesterday about the Pirates, and it started by saying how the Sid Bream slide at home in game 7 of the 1992 LCS may have completely altered the fortunes of the organization.  If Bonds had been able to throw Bream out, and if the Pirates had gone on to win the game in extras and possibly gone on to win the World Series, maybe Bonds would have decided to stay in Pittsburgh (or maybe the Pirates would have been forced to pony up the cash).  Things could have completely changed for the organization.

I bring this up because this season has felt a lot like that moment.  The Reds have constantly felt like they are one major move from competing, or one major move from destroying the organization.  I think that's why most of us get tense at the thought of Wayne Krivsky being the key person in making that possible move.  There's a lot to gain or lose.

I'm a numbers freak, numbers freak. I'm numbers freaky, ow.

by Slyde on Aug 9, 2007 9:59 AM EDT   0 recs

There are too many variables right now.
  • Does Krivsky keep his job? (Evidently, yes.)
  • Does they keep Mackinin for '08? (It seems unlikely but he is 18-13 with a team that was not really expected to win more than 85 games.)
  • Do they sign Dunn for '08?
  • Do they sign Dunn to a long term contract?
  • Do they trade Griffey?  (It seems unlikey, especially if he does not hit his 600th homer this September. That may seem sort of silly but I do think that is a significant contributing factor in this decision. It's not as if teams are beating down Wayne's door to try to acquire Junior.  He's owed a lot of money.)
  • Can Hamilton play 140 games next season?  If Dunn and/or Griffey is/are not going to be here at some point in the future, Hamilton is going to have be a consistent producer.
  • Will Edwin improve?  When?
  • Do they keep Stanton?
  • Does the bullpen get completely overhauled?
  • Assuming that '06 was something of a pleasant anomaly from Arroyo and that he will settle in as a .500-ish pitcher at #3 or #4 in the rotation, do the Reds try to sign or acquire a "legitimate" #2?
  • Will Homer be ready to be the Reds' #2 in '08?
  • The NL Central should be soft again in '08 so the Reds may not need five quality starters but who will be the #4 if they stand pat with Harang, Arroyo and Bailey?
  • Who's on first?
Rose's talk was "weird" - something that "might have been appropriate for a Kiwanis Club, but not for kids."

by Fat Vegas Alan on Aug 9, 2007 10:30 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Dunn vs Hamilton
I love Hamilton as much as the next guy, but Dunn can stay in the lineup and Hamilton can't, plain and simple. You can be a "clutch hitter" til the cows come home, but if you can't play then whats the point?

If you look at the two Daugherty/Brennemania favorites, Hamilton and Freel, they played in what, 30% of the games so far?

by bobestes on Aug 9, 2007 10:34 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Seems to illustrate the axiom
"Familiarity breeds contempt."

by Brendanukkah on Aug 9, 2007 10:42 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Sorry
I guess I didn't mean they were literally one move from competing (but that's what you said, Slyde!).  Just that it feels like they're walking a tight rope, or better yet playing Jenga.  They've got the pieces to build a winner, but it's a fragile balance.  Moves need to be made, but there are so many moves that could bring it crashing down.  It's nerve wracking.  You just want to scream, "NO, NOT THAT PIECE!"

I'm a numbers freak, numbers freak. I'm numbers freaky, ow.

by Slyde on Aug 9, 2007 10:41 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Funny
I also think of Jenga when thinking of the Reds right now:

by jch24 on Aug 9, 2007 1:46 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

"that moment"
for the reds was losing to the mets in the 99 single game playoff, at least in the sense that it was the last time the team was good.

Following that 99 season we decided to ditch the highly successful "rent-a-slugger" philosophy which I honestly loved.  Also, we stopped the "closer-revolving-door" which was always great for trade bait, and instead kept using Graves until he was worthless.  Ditching the revolving closer, IMO, is THE reason we have no bullpen today.

'Clutch' to me is the epitome of experimenter's bias.

by TheDude on Aug 9, 2007 10:49 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

You know
You're probably right, though the team did win 85 games in 2000.  It has been pretty much downhill since then.  I guess I feel like they are at a turning point where they could fall into the Pirates pit of doom or they could work their way back to respectability.

And I agree, this all Danny Graves fault.  I just couldn't put my finger on it. :)

BTW, I like to point this out from time-to-time because people assume that the Pirates are the only truly unsuccessful organization, but the Brewers still haven't finished the season with a winning record since 1991.  And they're only 5 games over .500 right now.  Granted, I'm sure the Pirates fans would kill to have their teams switched right now, but even a team that looks like they are turning it around is having trouble truly ditching their losing ways.

I'm a numbers freak, numbers freak. I'm numbers freaky, ow.

by Slyde on Aug 9, 2007 10:58 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

isn't it sad
we have to consider winning 85 games as a good thing?  

by Daedalus on Aug 9, 2007 11:02 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

There's "that moment"...
..and then 85 wins later, Jack McKeon was out of Cincinnati.  (I don't know if Jack would have been exactly the right long term guy, but he would go on to beat Wood, Prior and Zambrano to get to the World Series and then beat Clemens, Pettite, Mussina and Wells to win the damn thing.)

Rose's talk was "weird" - something that "might have been appropriate for a Kiwanis Club, but not for kids."

by Fat Vegas Alan on Aug 9, 2007 11:02 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Definitely
I can't believe we've had the likes of Bob Boone, Dave Miley, or Narron since 2000. Of the three, I had the most confidence in Miley, even though he's had the worst winning %.
This situation reminds me of a scene in the movie "New Jack City"... (-Deion Sanders)

by satyanaas on Aug 9, 2007 11:35 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

I liked Miley
his winning % was hurt severly by picking up the pieces in 2003.  I thought he was a decent enough manager, and I was actually a little upset when he was fired.  

by justin0070000 on Aug 9, 2007 9:31 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

I was a that game
with a friend of mine who grew up a huge Mets fan. I was positive we were going to win. That was depressing...

I guess we got tired of renting and used all of our savings to buy our own slugger in Griffey. That was pretty exciting, and I'm still glad we had him around in town to watch, but I guess it would have been wiser to keep the Mitchell's, Bichette's, and Vaughn's floating in and out of town, but as a fan it was hard to root for those guys because you knew they weren't going to be here very long...I agree with the revolving closer thought though.

This situation reminds me of a scene in the movie "New Jack City"... (-Deion Sanders)

by satyanaas on Aug 9, 2007 11:29 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Not Teetering, at least Not Yet..
Well, they have developed some players.  The problem is they have not drafted and developed a starting pitcher of note who has gone on to success in the rotation since Tom Browning, and that is over 20 years ago.  If Homer Bailey works out, he will break that streak.  I cannot remember the last WS team that never developed anyone in the rotation for that period of time.

And since the Reds are a small market team, they are stuck with everyone else's reclamation projects.  True, some of them will work out, Arroyo last year, Harang, especially, over the past few, but for every one of them there has been several Jimmy Haynes's and Paul Wilsons.  This is what sets us back.  We can bring up a Dunn or Kearns, but if you cannot develop adequate pitching, and you are compelled to acquire it from the outside as a small market team, it is a recipe for disaster.

Another factor, one I have been complaining about since it opened, is the GABP.  It is too much of a hitters park.  There is a reason the Cubs have not won a WS since '08, the Red Sox from 1918 until 2004, and the Rockies since their inception in MLB.  To put it another way.  The two teams with the most World Series championships, the Yankees and Cardinals, have played their home games mostly in pitching-oriented or neutral ballparks.  Teams with extreme offensive ballparks skew the numbers so much that it damages the pitching staffs, and I am certain in between there the psyche of quite a few pitchers.  I have personally witnessed, just from the games I have watched in person, at least a half dozen off-the-outfield-wall singles by players at the Great American.  I doubt I saw that many in all my years of watching games at the old Riverfront.  They need to move those fences back, especially down the lines.

by tonywf on Aug 9, 2007 11:05 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

The Snakes
"I cannot remember the last WS team that never developed anyone in the rotation.."

Thom's 2001 Arizona Diamondbacks won the whole dang thing with Curt Schilling, Randy Johnson and Brian Anderson.

Also, the Jim Leyland Marlins won their title with Kevin Brown, Al Leiter and Alex Fernandez.  But yes, they also had a young stud from "within the organization" (signed right off the boat only a year or two earlier) who came up to the big club sometime during the season to (as I remember) eat some innings as a fifth starter.

 

Rose's talk was "weird" - something that "might have been appropriate for a Kiwanis Club, but not for kids."

by Fat Vegas Alan on Aug 9, 2007 11:26 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

But I don't necessarily disagree..
..with your sentiments.

"but if you cannot develop adequate pitching, and you are compelled to acquire it from the outside as a small market team, it is a recipe for disaster."

I agree with you there.

I don't remember exactly how the Diamonbacks acquired both Schilling and Johnson but my guess is that in just the six/seven years since then, players' salaries (and their awareness of their value to organizations that want to contend now) have inflated to the point where perhaps not even the Yankees or the Red Sox could pull off a Schilling/Johnson-esque coup. (Think about it, are the Sox gonna go after Zambrano?  No.  They blew their was on Daisuke.  And if the Yankees get Zambrano, are they then going to pair him with Oswalt?  Doubt it.)

It's peculiar- as I typed my first response to your post I was thinking, "The times, they are a-changin'."  But the more that I think about it, the times may have just kept on a-changin'.

All of this means little to us Reds fans.  As I posted earlier- supposing that we're positioned to contend in '08 (or more likely '09) with Harang, Bailey and Arroyo I think we'll need one more thoroughbred in the stable.  And Bob probably won't spend/doesn't have the money to get one.  And that, I think, is more to the point of your lament.

Rose's talk was "weird" - something that "might have been appropriate for a Kiwanis Club, but not for kids."

by Fat Vegas Alan on Aug 9, 2007 11:44 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Again, The Snakes
Another factor, one I have been complaining about since it opened, is the GABP.  It is too much of a hitters park.  There is a reason the Cubs have not won a WS since '08, the Red Sox from 1918 until 2004, and the Rockies since their inception in MLB.  To put it another way.  The two teams with the most World Series championships, the Yankees and Cardinals, have played their home games mostly in pitching-oriented or neutral ballparks.  Teams with extreme offensive ballparks skew the numbers so much that it damages the pitching staffs...

In fact, 2 of the last 3 and 3 of the last 6 World Series winners played in hitter's parks.  More to the point, if you take out the Yankees (who won because of talent, not ballpark), 10 of the last 18 WS (or if you include them, 10 of 22) have been won by teams in hitter's parks.  Also, the old Sportsman's Park in St. Louis (where the Cards won 7 of their 10 championships) was a hitter's park.

I don't really think it matters that much.

just....wow.

by sidnancy on Aug 10, 2007 8:56 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

In my business...
When we say someone is a "plugger," what we mean is that the person is not very smart, but we like the person.

When we say someone is an "idiot," what we mean is that the person is not very smart, but we do not like the person.

Please exercise Adam Dunn's 2008 option.

by Paul Householder on Aug 9, 2007 9:59 AM EDT   0 recs

Shades of Gonzo
If you're studying for the SAT

Bush is to Alberto Gonzalez as Castellini is to Wayne Krivsky

by bobestes on Aug 9, 2007 10:05 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

2015, baby
I've got it marked on my calendar.

Longtime doormats make the playoffs for the first time in 20 years. Who wouldn't love that story?

I'm working on T Shirt slogans as we speak. This shit is gonna make me rich.

It's sorta like the Newmanimum (Seinfeld reference), but much more depressing.

by bobestes on Aug 9, 2007 10:02 AM EDT   0 recs

this makes it look like
WK's head is on the plate.
www.eastwind.org

by ewquinn on Aug 9, 2007 10:13 AM EDT   0 recs

don't forget
it's a day game today!  yay!  watching at work!  

by Daedalus on Aug 9, 2007 11:02 AM EDT   0 recs

Sweet I'll be 27 when the reds win!
"Always root for the winner. That way you won't be disappointed." -Tug McGraw

by Zach K on Aug 9, 2007 3:23 PM EDT   0 recs

Castellini's statements do not mean WK is safe
In May firing Narron "wasn't on the radar".  A GM or owner will never publically state, (unless they are named Marge) that they are going to fire a manager until it is final.  It underminds them with the team.

by justin0070000 on Aug 9, 2007 9:34 PM EDT   0 recs

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