FanPost

Dunn and a Run at History?

I was reading through Jason Stark's column on A-Rod's 500th, and saw an interesting projection about Adam Dunn:

For that answer, we turned to Dan Heisman, a sabermetrician who for years has used variations on Bill James' Favorite Toy formula to analyze active players' odds of achieving certain milestones. Here is what he found:

  • Using projections for this year's totals, he calculated that A-Rod has a 48 percent chance of hitting 775 homers (or 52 percent of hitting 756).
  • The only other hitters who even had better than a 15 percent chance at 775 were Albert Pujols (26 percent), Ryan Howard (18 percent) and Adam Dunn (also 18).
  • So, theoretically, we have a player on the Reds who has a 1 in 5 shot of hitting 775 HRs for his career.  I guess the question would be (to all of those that are concerned about cost in dollars of holding onto Dunn):  what is the value of different milestones to the gate?  I would imagine that Griffey passing people on the HR list this year (and approaching 600) has had a positive effect on attendance; does Dunn have the opportunity to provide the same, and thus "pay" for a greater portion of his salary?
    X
    Log In Sign Up

    forgot?
    Log In Sign Up

    Please choose a new SB Nation username and password

    As part of the new SB Nation launch, prior users will need to choose a permanent username, along with a new password.

    Your username will be used to login to SB Nation going forward.

    I already have a Vox Media account!

    Verify Vox Media account

    Please login to your Vox Media account. This account will be linked to your previously existing Eater account.

    Please choose a new SB Nation username and password

    As part of the new SB Nation launch, prior MT authors will need to choose a new username and password.

    Your username will be used to login to SB Nation going forward.

    Forgot password?

    We'll email you a reset link.

    If you signed up using a 3rd party account like Facebook or Twitter, please login with it instead.

    Forgot password?

    Try another email?

    Almost done,

    By becoming a registered user, you are also agreeing to our Terms and confirming that you have read our Privacy Policy.

    Join Red Reporter

    You must be a member of Red Reporter to participate.

    We have our own Community Guidelines at Red Reporter. You should read them.

    Join Red Reporter

    You must be a member of Red Reporter to participate.

    We have our own Community Guidelines at Red Reporter. You should read them.

    Spinner.vc97ec6e

    Authenticating

    Great!

    Choose an available username to complete sign up.

    In order to provide our users with a better overall experience, we ask for more information from Facebook when using it to login so that we can learn more about our audience and provide you with the best possible experience. We do not store specific user data and the sharing of it is not required to login with Facebook.

    tracking_pixel_9351_tracker