I was reading through Jason Stark's column on A-Rod's 500th, and saw an interesting projection about Adam Dunn:
For that answer, we turned to Dan Heisman, a sabermetrician who for years has used variations on Bill James' Favorite Toy formula to analyze active players' odds of achieving certain milestones. Here is what he found:
Using projections for this year's totals, he calculated that A-Rod has a 48 percent chance of hitting 775 homers (or 52 percent of hitting 756).
The only other hitters who even had better than a 15 percent chance at 775 were Albert Pujols (26 percent), Ryan Howard (18 percent) and Adam Dunn (also 18).
So, theoretically, we have a player on the Reds who has a 1 in 5 shot of hitting 775 HRs for his career. I guess the question would be (to all of those that are concerned about cost in dollars of holding onto Dunn): what is the value of different milestones to the gate? I would imagine that Griffey passing people on the HR list this year (and approaching 600) has had a positive effect on attendance; does Dunn have the opportunity to provide the same, and thus "pay" for a greater portion of his salary?