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Will Jay Bruce be better than Adam Dunn?

I know we're all fully into 'Play the young guys' mode and 'let's look ahead to 2008' mode, so I decided to give a little preview of one player who we hope will have a big role in our future, Jay Bruce.  Looking solely at the numbers, he compares to a certain player on the current Reds' roster, see below:

            AB       R       H       2B     3B    HR    RBI    SB    CS    BB    SO    AVG    OBP    SLG
Bruce    1045    187    312    90    15    45    194    31    24    106    262    0.299    0.364    0.543
Dunn    1208    263    367    70    4    63    220    60    21    230    270    0.304    0.425    0.525

I will use these numbers to compare Dunn and Bruce in 4 'tools' I look for in a hitter: Average, Power, Baserunning, Eye.  Note that the comparison below comes only from an analysis of the numbers, no scouting reports are used.

- AVERAGE: By the numbers, it appears that Bruce hits more line drives than Dunn, as shown by the higher doubles and triples.  To me, this says that he has the potential to be a better all around hitter and that he'll use more of the ballpark.  ADVANTAGE: Bruce

- POWER: In the minors, Dunn HR'd every 19 official at-bats.  Bruce HR'd every 23.  Not a big difference, in my book.    Their ISO power stats (SLG - AVG) are also similar.  I would expect this trend to continue in the majors as well.  ADVANTAGE: Push

- BASERUNNING: A popular complaint about Dunn is that he is big and slow.  Check out the SB numbers and you'll see that Dunn was successful 74%, and Bruce was successful 56% - not a good average for Bruce.  Again, however, we go back to 2B and especially 3B and we see that Bruce has far more than Dunn, which, in my book, evens it out.  ADVANTAGE: Push

- EYE: Bruce strikes out more than Dunn (gasp!) - 22% of his plate appearances vs. Dunn's 18%.  Bruce also walks nearly half as much as Dunn (9% vs. 19%).  Bruce's swing is obviously not without holes.  Obviously I'll take a .364 OBP in the majors from Bruce, but on this key stat, ADVANTAGE: Dunn

So, what does this mean?  Will we get the player we hope Bruce will be, or will we get the player Dunn is?  We may get to see sooner than we think...

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Defense
You didn't intend to evaluate defense, but that's a big part of the game obviously. Bruce can play CF and RF pretty well from all reports. So that's ADVANTAGE: Bruce.

by pw on Aug 3, 2007 3:48 PM EDT   0 recs

Tigrmetrics- ADVANTAGE: Draw?
Rose's talk was "weird" - something that "might have been appropriate for a Kiwanis Club, but not for kids."

by Fat Vegas Alan on Aug 3, 2007 9:37 PM EDT   0 recs

goofy mug?
advantage: bruce
you know who the reds need? lebron james.

by Charlie Scrabbles on Aug 3, 2007 10:45 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Maybe..
Bruce can rectify the strikout problem.  An issue that Dunn has been unable and unwilling to work on.  But if he could put up Adam Dunn numbers with even average fielding I would be happy.

by redacolyte on Aug 3, 2007 10:29 PM EDT   0 recs

Tracy Jones thinks Jay Bruce is the next L Walker!
I would love that, Larry Walker is in the hall of very good players
"Always root for the winner. That way you won't be disappointed." -Tug McGraw

by Zach K on Aug 3, 2007 10:51 PM EDT   0 recs

I want you to be very specific here.
How did Tracy word it when he made the Walker comparison?

That's a comparison that I've seen made fairly often, and it is a legitimate one, but Tracy Jones has never seen Jay Bruce play and has never shown
any kind of acumen for interpreting numbers. I'm gonna respect him even less if he starts acting like this is a comparison that he actually came up with and has made.

As far as how Bruce compares to Walker, Larry had a cup of tea at 22 and was starting in the majors at 23, though Larry missed a year of time with an injury. Still, Bruce is a year or so ahead of Walker's pace. They're very similar size-wise and are both left-handed hitters. Their defensive skillsets are similar, both with decent range and good arms. Bruce is a future RF by most accounts, but I've heard that for the time being he's still a good defensive centerfielder.

At the plate, Walker and Bruce have similar swings, which is where the comparison mainly comes from. Statistically, Bruce has shown a better ability to hit for average and much more gap power, but Walker showed more homerun power and speed in the minors. Bruce strikes out a bit more than Larry did and also walks a little less. Perhaps somewhat interestingly, Walker's minor league track record didn't give much insight onto what kind of major league player he was, other than a very good one. Larry hit for significantly higher averages in the majors, but the homerun power wasn't quite as evident even when he spent most of his career in Coors (though Coors surely helped his average). As Larry's career pressed on, his strikeout rate dropped dramatically and his walk rate went up. On the basepaths, Larry stole 230 career bases and was a consistent base-stealing threat until he was past 30. Bruce has already seemingly dropped the stolen base from his arsenal, with just 7 in 13 attempts this year.

The final part of Larry's game that should be mentioned is a negative -- it was a pretty good bet that he'd miss at least 20 games every year. If he had managed to stay healthy, Larry was not a Hall of Very Good player, he was an dominant, Hall of Fame player. He ranks 19th on the career OPS list, and with Coors taken into account, ranks 72nd on the career OPS+ list -- exactly equal to Ken Griffey, Jr. and Duke Snider, and better than hall of famers like Reggie Jackson, George Brett, and Carl Yastrzemski. And he won 7 Gold Gloves to go along with that.

So in essence, I agree with Tracy Jones that Jay Bruce compares favorably to Larry Walker, but I really don't think it's his place to be making that comparison. I simply can't see any reason to find him credible unless he actually gave credit to where he heard it.

by Geki on Aug 3, 2007 11:55 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

I didn't hear Jones comments..
But Geki's comments piqued my Googlin' interests:

From MLB.com (June '05).

Jay Bruce
School: Westbrook High School
Position: OF
B/T: L/L
H: 6'3"   W: 195
Born: 1987-04-03   Class: HS

Scouting report:
Large frame. Broad, sloped shoulders. Body similar to a young Larry Walker. Aggressive, stroke w/ strength & lift for power. Loose, strong wrists w/ flick. Ball jumps off bat. Loose arm. Plus OF instincts. Five-tool player. Complete package.

Rose's talk was "weird" - something that "might have been appropriate for a Kiwanis Club, but not for kids."

by Fat Vegas Alan on Aug 4, 2007 12:03 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

And from "Baseball America" (9/06):
Jay Bruce has the best chance to hit among all those outfielders," a National League scout said. "I saw Larry Walker in Triple-A, and Jay is comparable. He has a plus bat, plus arm and runs better than people think. His instincts for the game at an early age are outstanding. With his plate coverage, pitch recognition and going about being a professional, he has a chance to be very special."

The full article

Rose's talk was "weird" - something that "might have been appropriate for a Kiwanis Club, but not for kids."

by Fat Vegas Alan on Aug 4, 2007 12:06 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Like I said, it's a common comparison.
Which is why I'm going to be irritated if Tracy is claiming it as his own.

by Geki on Aug 4, 2007 12:13 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

FWIW..
I'm claiming the following as my own:

"Jay Bruce is the American Larry Walker!"

Rose's talk was "weird" - something that "might have been appropriate for a Kiwanis Club, but not for kids."

by Fat Vegas Alan on Aug 4, 2007 12:31 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

yes
but Does Bruce have 2 middle names?
I'm a numbers freak, numbers freak. I'm numbers freaky, ow.

by Slyde on Aug 4, 2007 10:24 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Your'e such a numbers freak.
Do you have to statisticalize every damn thing?
Rose's talk was "weird" - something that "might have been appropriate for a Kiwanis Club, but not for kids."

by Fat Vegas Alan on Aug 4, 2007 11:11 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Tracy said this...
"I saw Jay Bruce play the other day, and this kid can play, he reminded me of Larry Walker, He can Throw, Hit and Run..."

I'm not sure if he said it was his own, but he says he talks to scouts all the time so he most likely repeated something they said about Bruce.

"Always root for the winner. That way you won't be disappointed." -Tug McGraw

by Zach K on Aug 4, 2007 9:57 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Bruce and Walker
I heard Tracy Jones' comments.  Said that Bruce carried himself like a major leaguer during Spring Training '07.  Solid defender. And his swing was very reminiscent of Larry Walker.  And he thinks Bruce will strongly contend for Opening Dar roster spot in '08.

That would make four top notch LH outfielders.

by obc on Aug 4, 2007 9:45 AM EDT   0 recs

Hell Yeah!
Griffey, Hamilton, Bruce and Hopper.
"Karma - there it was. The meaning of life, straight from Carson Daly's lips to my morphine-laced ears." -Earl Hickey

by BLee2525 on Aug 4, 2007 9:57 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

*Hopper, Bruce, Griffey and Dunn
In Order of importance
"Always root for the winner. That way you won't be disappointed." -Tug McGraw

by Zach K on Aug 4, 2007 10:30 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Bruce starts at AAA next year...
Plays the whole year while Griffey and Dunn play out the last year in their contracts. When one or both are traded, then Bruce comes up.

The only way Bruce is coming up is if he has an everyday job. Surely, they wouldn't bring him up to platoon.

by sledridge on Aug 4, 2007 9:53 AM EDT   0 recs

Griffey or Hamilton will get injured next year...
There will be plenty of playing time for Jay Bruce.
What'cha gonna do, Red Reporters, when Brennamania runs wild on you?

by chandrathan on Aug 4, 2007 10:54 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Major problem with these comparisons.....
Jay Bruce is 20 and has spend the year in A+, AA and now in AAA.

When Adam Dunn was 20 he was playing a full season in Dayton.

Can you imagine what Jay would be doing if he were playing in Dayton, low A mind you, again this year?

The guy has an OPS over 1.000 at both AA and AAA and posted the highest OPS in the FSL for a player his age over the last 6 seasons (and thats only as far as I went back). If he spent the entire year in Dayton I honestly would expect him to be OPSing around 1.100 right now.

www.redsminorleagues.com

by dougdirt on Aug 4, 2007 2:15 PM EDT   0 recs

so far
he's put up a .965 in sarasota, a 1.057 in chattanooga and a 1.018 at louisville. i dont really want to know what hed be doing in dayton all season, because he seems to me to be up to a challenge. i kind of worry htat he wont be moved along fast enough, and that that might impede his growth. honestly, if i were gm, bruce would be up now playing center while hamilton's out.
Marty may have a shirt on, but Billy Beane just ripped his off and is squeezing his nipples. - Brendan's ukkah

by boobs on Aug 4, 2007 2:26 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

No...
We play Conine, Hatty and Stanton. there is no room on the roster because those 3 guys are the future for the reds clearly...
"Always root for the winner. That way you won't be disappointed." -Tug McGraw

by Zach K on Aug 4, 2007 3:11 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

FREEL???????
IS freel's contract over? If not, we have 5 OUTFIELDERS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!  THERE WILL BE NO ROOM AT THE  INN FOR JAY BRUCE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Next year out field will be Hamilton/Freel in center DUnn/Hopper in left and junior/Freel/Hopper, then Dewayne Wise be be pulled up when and if injury happens. GOTTA LOVE DUMB ASS KRIVSKY for opening places for the youngins. Next the team WILL NOT have Votto or Bruce watch.

by Tbone redleg on Aug 5, 2007 12:31 PM EDT   0 recs

bruce just looks like a ballplayer
there's something so natural about the way he plays ball, as i saw this weekend during two bats games.

though there is something weird about the way he flicks his hair around when he takes off his helmet.

by Daedalus on Aug 5, 2007 11:55 PM EDT   0 recs

tigrmetrics.
"Two Dunn's enter, but only one Dunn will leave...unless neither do because they decide to play cards, drink beer, golf, and fish."--SlydeFrog

by Man Mountain on Aug 6, 2007 3:20 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

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