Will Jay Bruce be better than Adam Dunn?
I know we're all fully into 'Play the young guys' mode and 'let's look ahead to 2008' mode, so I decided to give a little preview of one player who we hope will have a big role in our future, Jay Bruce. Looking solely at the numbers, he compares to a certain player on the current Reds' roster, see below:
AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO AVG OBP SLG
Bruce 1045 187 312 90 15 45 194 31 24 106 262 0.299 0.364 0.543
Dunn 1208 263 367 70 4 63 220 60 21 230 270 0.304 0.425 0.525
I will use these numbers to compare Dunn and Bruce in 4 'tools' I look for in a hitter: Average, Power, Baserunning, Eye. Note that the comparison below comes only from an analysis of the numbers, no scouting reports are used.
- AVERAGE: By the numbers, it appears that Bruce hits more line drives than Dunn, as shown by the higher doubles and triples. To me, this says that he has the potential to be a better all around hitter and that he'll use more of the ballpark. ADVANTAGE: Bruce
- POWER: In the minors, Dunn HR'd every 19 official at-bats. Bruce HR'd every 23. Not a big difference, in my book. Their ISO power stats (SLG - AVG) are also similar. I would expect this trend to continue in the majors as well. ADVANTAGE: Push
- BASERUNNING: A popular complaint about Dunn is that he is big and slow. Check out the SB numbers and you'll see that Dunn was successful 74%, and Bruce was successful 56% - not a good average for Bruce. Again, however, we go back to 2B and especially 3B and we see that Bruce has far more than Dunn, which, in my book, evens it out. ADVANTAGE: Push
- EYE: Bruce strikes out more than Dunn (gasp!) - 22% of his plate appearances vs. Dunn's 18%. Bruce also walks nearly half as much as Dunn (9% vs. 19%). Bruce's swing is obviously not without holes. Obviously I'll take a .364 OBP in the majors from Bruce, but on this key stat, ADVANTAGE: Dunn
So, what does this mean? Will we get the player we hope Bruce will be, or will we get the player Dunn is? We may get to see sooner than we think...
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Defense
by pw on Aug 3, 2007 3:48 PM EDT 0 recs
Tigrmetrics- ADVANTAGE: Draw?
by Fat Vegas Alan on Aug 3, 2007 9:37 PM EDT 0 recs
goofy mug?
by Charlie Scrabbles on
Aug 3, 2007 10:45 PM EDT
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Maybe..
by redacolyte on Aug 3, 2007 10:29 PM EDT 0 recs
Tracy Jones thinks Jay Bruce is the next L Walker!
by Zach K on Aug 3, 2007 10:51 PM EDT 0 recs
I want you to be very specific here.
That's a comparison that I've seen made fairly often, and it is a legitimate one, but Tracy Jones has never seen Jay Bruce play and has never shown
any kind of acumen for interpreting numbers. I'm gonna respect him even less if he starts acting like this is a comparison that he actually came up with and has made.
As far as how Bruce compares to Walker, Larry had a cup of tea at 22 and was starting in the majors at 23, though Larry missed a year of time with an injury. Still, Bruce is a year or so ahead of Walker's pace. They're very similar size-wise and are both left-handed hitters. Their defensive skillsets are similar, both with decent range and good arms. Bruce is a future RF by most accounts, but I've heard that for the time being he's still a good defensive centerfielder.
At the plate, Walker and Bruce have similar swings, which is where the comparison mainly comes from. Statistically, Bruce has shown a better ability to hit for average and much more gap power, but Walker showed more homerun power and speed in the minors. Bruce strikes out a bit more than Larry did and also walks a little less. Perhaps somewhat interestingly, Walker's minor league track record didn't give much insight onto what kind of major league player he was, other than a very good one. Larry hit for significantly higher averages in the majors, but the homerun power wasn't quite as evident even when he spent most of his career in Coors (though Coors surely helped his average). As Larry's career pressed on, his strikeout rate dropped dramatically and his walk rate went up. On the basepaths, Larry stole 230 career bases and was a consistent base-stealing threat until he was past 30. Bruce has already seemingly dropped the stolen base from his arsenal, with just 7 in 13 attempts this year.
The final part of Larry's game that should be mentioned is a negative -- it was a pretty good bet that he'd miss at least 20 games every year. If he had managed to stay healthy, Larry was not a Hall of Very Good player, he was an dominant, Hall of Fame player. He ranks 19th on the career OPS list, and with Coors taken into account, ranks 72nd on the career OPS+ list -- exactly equal to Ken Griffey, Jr. and Duke Snider, and better than hall of famers like Reggie Jackson, George Brett, and Carl Yastrzemski. And he won 7 Gold Gloves to go along with that.
So in essence, I agree with Tracy Jones that Jay Bruce compares favorably to Larry Walker, but I really don't think it's his place to be making that comparison. I simply can't see any reason to find him credible unless he actually gave credit to where he heard it.
by Geki on
Aug 3, 2007 11:55 PM EDT
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I didn't hear Jones comments..
From MLB.com (June '05).
Jay Bruce
School: Westbrook High School
Position: OF
B/T: L/L
H: 6'3" W: 195
Born: 1987-04-03 Class: HS
Scouting report:
Large frame. Broad, sloped shoulders. Body similar to a young Larry Walker. Aggressive, stroke w/ strength & lift for power. Loose, strong wrists w/ flick. Ball jumps off bat. Loose arm. Plus OF instincts. Five-tool player. Complete package.
by Fat Vegas Alan on
Aug 4, 2007 12:03 AM EDT
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And from "Baseball America" (9/06):
by Fat Vegas Alan on
Aug 4, 2007 12:06 AM EDT
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Like I said, it's a common comparison.
by Geki on
Aug 4, 2007 12:13 AM EDT
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FWIW..
"Jay Bruce is the American Larry Walker!"
by Fat Vegas Alan on
Aug 4, 2007 12:31 AM EDT
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yes
by Slyde on
Aug 4, 2007 10:24 AM EDT
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Your'e such a numbers freak.
by Fat Vegas Alan on
Aug 4, 2007 11:11 AM EDT
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Tracy said this...
I'm not sure if he said it was his own, but he says he talks to scouts all the time so he most likely repeated something they said about Bruce.
by Zach K on
Aug 4, 2007 9:57 AM EDT
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Bruce and Walker
That would make four top notch LH outfielders.
by obc on Aug 4, 2007 9:45 AM EDT 0 recs
Hell Yeah!
by BLee2525 on
Aug 4, 2007 9:57 AM EDT
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*Hopper, Bruce, Griffey and Dunn
by Zach K on
Aug 4, 2007 10:30 AM EDT
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Bruce starts at AAA next year...
The only way Bruce is coming up is if he has an everyday job. Surely, they wouldn't bring him up to platoon.
by sledridge on Aug 4, 2007 9:53 AM EDT 0 recs
Griffey or Hamilton will get injured next year...
by chandrathan on
Aug 4, 2007 10:54 AM EDT
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Major problem with these comparisons.....
When Adam Dunn was 20 he was playing a full season in Dayton.
Can you imagine what Jay would be doing if he were playing in Dayton, low A mind you, again this year?
The guy has an OPS over 1.000 at both AA and AAA and posted the highest OPS in the FSL for a player his age over the last 6 seasons (and thats only as far as I went back). If he spent the entire year in Dayton I honestly would expect him to be OPSing around 1.100 right now.
by dougdirt on Aug 4, 2007 2:15 PM EDT 0 recs
so far
by boobs on
Aug 4, 2007 2:26 PM EDT
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No...
by Zach K on
Aug 4, 2007 3:11 PM EDT
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FREEL???????
by Tbone redleg on Aug 5, 2007 12:31 PM EDT 0 recs
bruce just looks like a ballplayer

though there is something weird about the way he flicks his hair around when he takes off his helmet.
by Daedalus on Aug 5, 2007 11:55 PM EDT 0 recs
tigrmetrics.
by Man Mountain on
Aug 6, 2007 3:20 PM EDT
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