FanPost

Will Jay Bruce be better than Adam Dunn?

I know we're all fully into 'Play the young guys' mode and 'let's look ahead to 2008' mode, so I decided to give a little preview of one player who we hope will have a big role in our future, Jay Bruce.  Looking solely at the numbers, he compares to a certain player on the current Reds' roster, see below:

            AB       R       H       2B     3B    HR    RBI    SB    CS    BB    SO    AVG    OBP    SLG
Bruce    1045    187    312    90    15    45    194    31    24    106    262    0.299    0.364    0.543
Dunn    1208    263    367    70    4    63    220    60    21    230    270    0.304    0.425    0.525

I will use these numbers to compare Dunn and Bruce in 4 'tools' I look for in a hitter: Average, Power, Baserunning, Eye.  Note that the comparison below comes only from an analysis of the numbers, no scouting reports are used.

- AVERAGE: By the numbers, it appears that Bruce hits more line drives than Dunn, as shown by the higher doubles and triples.  To me, this says that he has the potential to be a better all around hitter and that he'll use more of the ballpark.  ADVANTAGE: Bruce

- POWER: In the minors, Dunn HR'd every 19 official at-bats.  Bruce HR'd every 23.  Not a big difference, in my book.    Their ISO power stats (SLG - AVG) are also similar.  I would expect this trend to continue in the majors as well.  ADVANTAGE: Push

- BASERUNNING: A popular complaint about Dunn is that he is big and slow.  Check out the SB numbers and you'll see that Dunn was successful 74%, and Bruce was successful 56% - not a good average for Bruce.  Again, however, we go back to 2B and especially 3B and we see that Bruce has far more than Dunn, which, in my book, evens it out.  ADVANTAGE: Push

- EYE: Bruce strikes out more than Dunn (gasp!) - 22% of his plate appearances vs. Dunn's 18%.  Bruce also walks nearly half as much as Dunn (9% vs. 19%).  Bruce's swing is obviously not without holes.  Obviously I'll take a .364 OBP in the majors from Bruce, but on this key stat, ADVANTAGE: Dunn

So, what does this mean?  Will we get the player we hope Bruce will be, or will we get the player Dunn is?  We may get to see sooner than we think...

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