Reason #453 to Keep Dunn

by xjjeep90 on Aug 19, 2007 6:24 PM EDT Comment 26 comments

The White Sox announced a new two-year deal for OF Jermaine Dye, 2 years, $22 million. So that makes a deal of $11 per year. Adam Dunn's option for 2008 is $13mil.

At age 33, Dye will be at 35 when that deal is done and Dunn will be age 28.

Well, surely Dye is being paid for his superior defense. Not really. If Dunn is a bad fielder at .833 RZR, then how bad can Dye be at .801?

Dye is more than likely getting paid for his prowess at the plate.

Dye's Numbers
.242 BA
.306 OBP
.791 OPS

Dunn's Numbers
.262 BA
.370 OBP
.922 OPS

Another argument for Adam Dunn, and another hole in those arguing against picking up his option.

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to play devil's advocate

(he's not around, is he?)

one could say that Williams is an idiot and overpaying for Dye (he is on both counts). And therefore that particular signing is not a true reflection of the market.

I, of course, think Dunn is worth the option and possibly an extension. So I welcome this signing as more grist for the "Keep At'em" mill.

"Two Dunn's enter, but only one Dunn will leave...unless neither do because they decide to play cards, drink beer, golf, and fish."--SlydeFrog

by Man Mountain on Aug 19, 2007 8:28 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

When an idiot gives way too much money to a player he probably shouldn't have, he still impacts the market (Denny Neagle, Gil Meche, Barry Zito, Carlos Lee, etc.). The only time this didn't really happen was Tom Hicks wildly overbidding for A-Rod. That type of contract hasn't been sniffed since then, and in fact it possibly led to a minor market correction. It can be argued that A-Rod is worth his contract. Dye might not be worth his new deal, but you and I agree that Dunn is worth his $13 mil. It'll be interesting to see what happens with an extension though.

by Brendanukkah on Aug 19, 2007 9:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Dye

Has also gotten to 30 balls out of his zone compared to Dunns 19 in 57 more innings. Dye is going to be overpaid in my mind, Dunn is getting close at 13 millions, but thats about right for what he does. Just my opinion.

www.redsminorleagues.com

by dougdirt on Aug 19, 2007 9:24 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

AS the wheels keep turning Dunn

at 13M will be a very good deal for the Reds. In fact by spring, he may be a bargain. And he's not done putting up numbers for this year yet.

They say it is all over in the blink of an eye. Don't Blink.

by Madville on Aug 20, 2007 12:21 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

with the numbers he'll put up

by the end of the year 13 million will be a steal for what they'll have to sign him for

by OURob on Aug 20, 2007 1:24 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

$12.5 million

Half a million of the thirteen is his buyout and is already a sunk cost. So the Reds decision is whether they want to spend the extra $12.5 to keep Dunn. Not a huge difference, but makes the $ spent on Dunn vs Dye (and others) even closer.

2-0 count: one pitch, one zone

by rojosoto on Aug 20, 2007 9:06 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Krivsky will prove

He is an idiot if (when?) he doesn't exercise the option.

If Krivsky doesn't exercise Adam Dunn's 2008 option, I'm a Mets fan until they fire him.

by Paul Householder on Aug 20, 2007 10:28 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I wonder

what Dunn would get on the open market. I suspect it's quite a bit more than $13 million...

by Gray on Aug 20, 2007 11:31 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Estimate

Carlos Lee signed 6-year deal worth $100M thru 2012 season on 11/24/06

he receives a $3M signing bonus payable in 2007 and salaries of $11M in 2007, $12M in 2008 and $18.5M each year in 2009, 2010, 2011 and 2012
the deal includes a full NO-TRADE clause in 2007, 2008, 2009 and 2010 and a limited NO-TRADE clause in 2011 and 2012
prior to to 2011, Lee and the Astros must mutually agree on 12 teams to which he cannot be traded without his consent
the deal includes a nominal weight clause that requires him to maintain a certain body weight

Player       From   To   Ages   AB    R    H   2B 3B   HR  RBI   BB  IBB   SO  HBP  SF GDP  SB  CS   BA  OBP  SLG  OPS+

Carlos Lee   2003 2006  27-30 2456  390  712  150  2  131  442  206   18  329   15  35  60  61  15 .290 .344 .513  119

Adam Dunn    2004 2007  24-27 2099  390  528  113  4  160  378  407   42  695   27   9  33  25   5 .252 .378 .538  132

Neither is a good defender, but most metrics put Lee above Dunn. Given that Dunn is 3 years younger, I think it's fair to say that his value is at least at the level of Lee. Lee's contract is back-loaded partly because the Astros are paying $12M this season for Biggio/Bagwell. Maybe Dunn's would do the same to account for Griffey, but suffice to say it will take a large sum of money to lock Dunn up on the open market.

I'm a numbers freak, numbers freak. I'm numbers freaky, ow.

by Slyde on Aug 20, 2007 11:52 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Sounds about right...

I was thinking 5-6 years, $100-$120 million. I venture to say that if the Reds could sign him for that, he'd be well worth it.

by Gray on Aug 20, 2007 11:59 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think

A $20M average is a little high. As I recall, I think ARod and Manny are the only players who have reached that level for an entire contract. Public perception plays into this as much as anything, and Dunn's highest showing in the MVP voting is 26th (granted, part of that is due to being on crappy teams). I think 6 years is pretty much a given, and somebody might give him 7 or 8 - especially since Soriano got 8 despite being 3 years older. I would also guess that he'll get a 15-16M a year average, especially if an AL team picks him up with the safety net of the DH. The only reason I can see against him getting that sort of contract is if teams are too afraid of his defense or they pay more attention to his strikeouts than the rest of his game.

I'm a numbers freak, numbers freak. I'm numbers freaky, ow.

by Slyde on Aug 20, 2007 12:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I want 5 year, $75 million

With an option for a sixth worth $20. The Reds will have to pick up that option with Dunn nearing his 500th homer at that time!

I love the Reds no matter what!

by Daedalus on Aug 20, 2007 12:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

That would be a deal.

I can't see Krivsky signing that contract, though.

:-(

by Gray on Aug 20, 2007 2:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Run producers

I think Dunn will have to put up a shiny RBI total to get a contract like Lee's (6/100). He's perceived as having little value outside of his run producing ability (i.e., RBI), and "elite" run producers put up 115-120 RBI seasons. Which he could do this year - 83 RBIs through 123 games puts him around the 110 RBI pace. If he "only" drives in 105 or so, I see him falling short of the Lee threshold.

by ken on Aug 20, 2007 1:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I understand

But he's already going to make $13M next year and will be at least 2 years younger than Lee was when he negotiates his next contract. Maybe he won't quite get $16M+ a year, but I doubt he will get much less than that unless all of the owners bought their teams fully financed with adjustable rate loans, in which case there won't be money left for anybody.

I'm a numbers freak, numbers freak. I'm numbers freaky, ow.

by Slyde on Aug 20, 2007 1:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Note to self: time to refinance

I have a nagging feeling (for Dunn) that his low avg/high obp approach and Brennamania bashings really hurt his market value. But maybe that's limited to his value with Cincinnati. We'll see.

by ken on Aug 20, 2007 3:47 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

As much as Dunn dislikes 1B

I think his value, to the Reds at least, increases greatly if he's willing to move. They have some talent in the OF, led by Jay Bruce in AAA and Danny Dorn in AA, that will need a place to play. Also, despite being in Low A all year, I think Stubbs will be here Sept. '09. He's had a solid year despite playing hurt all season. I like Votto, but if I have to make a choice between him and Dunner I'm definetly taking Adam.

by matchu522 on Aug 20, 2007 3:19 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Dunn NEEDS to go to 1st.

Whether he likes it or not, Dunn is prototypical for a 1st baseman in the classic sense. He is pretty athletic and I believe that if he put a fair amount of time,effort and education into the process, he could become a decent 1st. baseman. If he would switch (or can switch) his value will increase significantly not only to the Reds but in future contracts anywhere he may wish to go.

They say it is all over in the blink of an eye. Don't Blink.

by Madville on Aug 20, 2007 10:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Reason 453 not to keep Dunn

I don't like him! Ha!

"A lot of good ballgames on tomorrow, but we're going to be right here with the Cubs and the Mets." -Thom Brennaman, Chicago Cubs broadcaster.

by Zach K on Aug 20, 2007 5:48 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Zach, I don't always like you either,

but you're a member of the RR team. Sure you're young and headstrong but you have a great upside in the blogging industry.And everybody on the team is pulling for you. So you see, you and Adam are so much alike in so many ways, except that he's going to hit over 40 hrs again this year.

They say it is all over in the blink of an eye. Don't Blink.

by Madville on Aug 20, 2007 10:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

and dunn does a mean CCR karaoke

at least this isnt pittsburgh

by Charlie Scrabbles on Aug 20, 2007 11:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

This is more information than I need to know.

They say it is all over in the blink of an eye. Don't Blink.

by Madville on Aug 21, 2007 12:08 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

For some reason,

I just imagined Adam Dunn as a DDR nerd.

Everybody's a jerk. You. Me. This jerk.

by andromache on Aug 21, 2007 9:21 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yowza

...And You Will Know Us By The Trail Of Broken Dance Dance Revolution Machines.

by Brendanukkah on Aug 21, 2007 1:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I was joking dude

You guys must learn to know that I try to speak as the average sport talk fan!

"A lot of good ballgames on tomorrow, but we're going to be right here with the Cubs and the Mets." -Thom Brennaman, Chicago Cubs broadcaster.

by Zach K on Aug 21, 2007 1:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

You speak with straight tongue

because you're a member of the RR team. Sure you're young and headstrong but you have a great upside in the blogging industry.And everybody on the team is pulling for you. So you see, you and Adam are so much alike in so many ways, except that he's going to hit over 40 hrs again this year.

They say it is all over in the blink of an eye. Don't Blink.

by Madville on Aug 21, 2007 5:45 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs