JohErardi's RISP Column... Uninformed flat out Gibberish

by MichaelRed on Jul 29, 2007 10:33 PM EDT

news.enquirer.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20070729/SPT04/707290354

I'll summarize the column by quoting Erardi's conclusion "Turns out, it (RISP) means almost nothing." and citing the two primary points which lead him to his conclusion:
-"For a career, most batters hit within a few points of their overall average with RISP." and
-"The NL overall batting average is .261; with RISP, it's .260."

How's that for third grade thinking?

And Based on Erardi's other columns, "The case for Keeping Adam Dunn" and "Trade Arroyo, Keep Dunn" it's not hard to figure out where he's coming from with all this mess and what he hopes to accomplish.

I won't fact check Erardi, I'll assume his two facts are correct - that "most" batters do hit near their overall avg. with RISP and that the league overall and RISP averages are usually fairly close. HOWEVER, in the context of the CINCINNATI REDS and ADAM DUNN those facts MEAN NOTHING.

Adam Dunn is NOT "most" batters. ADAM DUNN IS and has been the cleanup or 3/5 hole hitter on this team for years. His batting avg. with RISP is consistently ~30 points BELOW an already RELATIVELY LOW batting average. The whole construct of major league batting orders is to get top of the order hitters on base and in scoring position so 3/4/5/6/7 hole hitters can drive those runners in. To the CINCINNATI REDS it makes no difference what league averages or "most" hitters do. What matters to the CINCINNATI REDS is what Cincinnati Reds hitters do and when the Reds arguably most important rbi guy in the lineup with RISP is CONSISTENTLY ~30 points below an already low Batting Average this is a problem ! These are opportunities LOST............stranded Runners... defense, pitching and TIMELY hitting are the age old components of WINNING Baseball. A big part of "timely" hitting is hitting with RISP.

What makes up an "average" John Erardi? Well, typically a certain number of "entities/trials" which are on or near the average, another group which are above, and another group which lie BELOW......... when one of the Cincinnati Reds key RBI guys year after year is BELOW average this is a problem. 7 years of RISP struggles !!! Your line of thinking Erardi is wait 7 more years for the Law of Averages to kick in for Adam?? ... ?.....not going to happen...........

More likely John Erardi, not being able to hit with RISP is an attribute of Adam Dunn. It is an attribute which has its roots in his bad hitting fundamentals, feast/famine approach and inability to situationally/technically adjust as a hitter. These are qualities of Adam Dunn which show no signs of changing. These are some of the things that make Adam NOT "most" batters..............and NOT in a good way.........more likely Adam Dunn will continue to struggle with RISP for the next 7 years and some other hitter in baseball on the Cardinals, Red Sox or Yankees will continue to hit with RISP above his already fairly good batting average. This is how "averages" work John. Problem is the Reds are on the wrong end of all this courtesy of Adam Dunn (for one).

I don't know who you are John Erardi but I do know your steps for reaching a conclusion are suspect and that you don't know baseball.

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Comments

Do you think Adam Dunn will be traded?

"Always root for the winner. That way you won't be disappointed." -Tug McGraw

by Zach K on Jul 29, 2007 10:38 PM EDT reply actions

re:

no... I don't think so at this point. Because of a combination of soft demand for him from other clubs and the Reds asking price too high.

At this point... I fear best case scenario is Reds don't pick up his option for 2008 and let him walk. Worst case....they renegotiate or pick up his option.

Enough with the Homeruns and Strikeouts

by MichaelRed on Jul 29, 2007 10:41 PM EDT up reply actions

I'm not sure about that

who do you think is the reds best offensive player? or most productive?

"Always root for the winner. That way you won't be disappointed." -Tug McGraw

by Zach K on Jul 29, 2007 10:47 PM EDT up reply actions

re:

Brandon Phillips, potentially Josh Hamilton and Keppinger both have a chance to be very productive hitters.......of course, Griffey too when he's healthy and playing well...........

Enough with the Homeruns and Strikeouts

by MichaelRed on Jul 29, 2007 10:57 PM EDT up reply actions

Well Griffey hasn't been to great with RISP

Why do you think Adam Dunn is the problem? I'm not a fan of his but I really truely think the problem with this team is the GM.

"Always root for the winner. That way you won't be disappointed." -Tug McGraw

by Zach K on Jul 29, 2007 11:00 PM EDT up reply actions

I think

John Erardi just might BE a JOURNALIST...........for the Cincinnati...........Enquirer.

What techinal/situational ADJUSTMENTS does Dunn need to MAKE at the plate?..........I assume you've broken DOWN TAPE and can tell us more preciseLY.

"Two Dunn's enter, but only one Dunn will leave...unless neither do because they decide to play cards, drink beer, golf, and fish."--SlydeFrog

by Man Mountain on Jul 29, 2007 10:43 PM EDT reply actions

re:

You don't need to be Brook Jacoby, Lou Pinella or Charlie Lau to see what makes Adam Dunn so horrible situationally and with respect to hitting techniques/versatility..........

Your better hitters can hit a variety of pitches to all fields and/or at least hit a variety of pitches well.........Adam does neither.

Adam clearly has a good eye but how many hitters hit more "foul balls" than Adam? Not too many.... Think that might have something to do with his long looping swing? (rather than the preferred short/compact one)

And all the strikeouts...... think that might have something to do with the long looping swing and lack of plate coverage?

Enough with the Homeruns and Strikeouts

by MichaelRed on Jul 29, 2007 10:51 PM EDT up reply actions

Wow,

you CAN tell a GUY doesn't know baseball FROM reading ONE day's worth of ARTICLES?

We Are ... Marshall!

by Thundering Turtle on Jul 29, 2007 10:44 PM EDT reply actions

re:

He either doesn't know baseball or he's giving in to personal bias.

I'm not going to blindly question his integrity so I guess I'll opt for that he just doesn't know baseball.

Enough with the Homeruns and Strikeouts

by MichaelRed on Jul 29, 2007 10:54 PM EDT up reply actions

giving in to personal bias

is a huge problem.

totally agree.

by Blue on Jul 29, 2007 11:13 PM EDT up reply actions

Might I say...

I hope to jeebus Adam Dunn gets traded tomorrow, so all of this garbage will be over.

Although, I fear if he gets traded, this site will turn into a Nascar fan the day after Dale Earnhardt died...

"Give them this: they never let the fact that only half of what they posted was funny stop them from posting still more." - Rastronomicals

by chandrathan on Jul 29, 2007 10:57 PM EDT reply actions

I sorta agree

I hate trade rumor talk it drives me nuts!!!, but I don't wanna lose the reds best offensive player over it haha

"Always root for the winner. That way you won't be disappointed." -Tug McGraw

by Zach K on Jul 29, 2007 10:58 PM EDT up reply actions

I have to tell you this

the "haha" tag at the end of your posts used to annoy me, but now I find it sort of endearing. I read all your posts to the tune of "They're Coming to Take Me Away Haha"

Heehee, HoHo, Haha...

"Two Dunn's enter, but only one Dunn will leave...unless neither do because they decide to play cards, drink beer, golf, and fish."--SlydeFrog

by Man Mountain on Jul 29, 2007 11:03 PM EDT up reply actions

Glad you enjoy them...haha

"Always root for the winner. That way you won't be disappointed." -Tug McGraw

by Zach K on Jul 29, 2007 11:05 PM EDT up reply actions

One of the great lessons I've learned...

The most annoying habits, once expected, become endearing.

It's not the negativity. It's the misdirected negativity.

by Red Menace on Jul 30, 2007 2:29 AM EDT up reply actions

And then you sort of just stick in their head

(to the tune of "by menen")

Reeeddd Men-ace

chandrathan has come out of the darkness and has seen a great light!

by Slyde on Jul 30, 2007 8:38 AM EDT up reply actions

Yes!

Great, now I won't be able to read RM's comments the same.

by Brian B on Jul 30, 2007 9:17 PM EDT up reply actions

if only

If I could find a way to have some sort of .wav signature I would totally do this. Ideally it would play everytime you scrolled past one of my comments.

It's not the negativity. It's the misdirected negativity.

by Red Menace on Jul 30, 2007 11:48 PM EDT up reply actions

dibs.

"This may be representative of my nature as a middle American jerk-off." ~Pops

by Fat Vegas Alan on Jul 31, 2007 12:00 AM EDT up reply actions

I was going to say...

"are you really adam dunn?"

Then I thought of your name as Fat Vegas Adam, and I can't stop laughing about it!

"Give them this: they never let the fact that only half of what they posted was funny stop them from posting still more." - Rastronomicals

by chandrathan on Jul 31, 2007 12:06 AM EDT up reply actions

Co-Stanza...

"Give them this: they never let the fact that only half of what they posted was funny stop them from posting still more." - Rastronomicals

by chandrathan on Jul 30, 2007 11:51 PM EDT up reply actions

Ooh

Can I be the drunk pregnant woman smoking?

"Two Dunn's enter, but only one Dunn will leave...unless neither do because they decide to play cards, drink beer, golf, and fish."--SlydeFrog

by Man Mountain on Jul 29, 2007 11:00 PM EDT up reply actions

As long as you don't wear shoes...

"Give them this: they never let the fact that only half of what they posted was funny stop them from posting still more." - Rastronomicals

by chandrathan on Jul 29, 2007 11:01 PM EDT up reply actions

On the departure of Dunn....

Yeah, God forbid if we take offense at losing a 40 homerun, 100 walk, 100 run, 100 RBI a year guy (whose sin in life is having a career BA with RISP that's too low to some) for a few junk relievers and a "prospect" (and the assumption of the remainder of his contract [the real reason behind any trading of Adam]). Maybe we can bring back Duane Walker and put him in left. His career average with RISP was 38 points higher than his BA (and had a glove made of the same cement as Adam's).

by tonywf on Jul 30, 2007 2:49 AM EDT up reply actions

Good God

Every time I let you out of your hole it gets worse. Take a vacation until after the trade deadline Michael.

We are all in the gutter, but some of us are looking at the stars. --Oscar Wilde

by JD Arney on Jul 29, 2007 11:02 PM EDT reply actions

I hope you aren't banning him...

It would be a shame for anyone to desecrate this shrine to Adam Dunn that you have built here.

"Give them this: they never let the fact that only half of what they posted was funny stop them from posting still more." - Rastronomicals

by chandrathan on Jul 29, 2007 11:05 PM EDT up reply actions

shrine?

It's really more like an altar, no?

Seriously though, it's not like we believe Dunn is infallible. Most of us are just arguing for some perspective on his faults. Besides there are plenty of places on the web and talk radio where people bash Dunn. I don't think there is a problem with one or two places on the web thinking he's someone hold on to.

chandrathan has come out of the darkness and has seen a great light!

by Slyde on Jul 29, 2007 11:26 PM EDT up reply actions

Not infallible?

speak for yourself, Frog. Ratzinger better watch his back.

"Two Dunn's enter, but only one Dunn will leave...unless neither do because they decide to play cards, drink beer, golf, and fish."--SlydeFrog

by Man Mountain on Jul 29, 2007 11:29 PM EDT up reply actions

Joey Ratz

don't fuck around.

by ctnyc on Aug 1, 2007 7:33 PM EDT up reply actions

Dude shouldn't have gotten banned.

"Give them this: they never let the fact that only half of what they posted was funny stop them from posting still more." - Rastronomicals

by chandrathan on Jul 29, 2007 11:32 PM EDT up reply actions

Was he banned again?

If he was, I'd second chandrathan's "support" of the guy.

For what that's worth.

"This may be representative of my nature as a middle American jerk-off." ~Pops

by Fat Vegas Alan on Jul 29, 2007 11:40 PM EDT up reply actions

Obviously that's JD's call

but if he did ban him, I can almost guarantee that it has less to do with Michael's dislike of Dunn and more to do with his consistently incomprehensible arguments intended solely to ignite a flame war.

I'm not a particularly big fan of Brandon Phillips. What if every other day I started a diary claiming that his attitude is killing the team; that the fact that he's 2 for his last 17 shows that he's an incompetent hitter; that his 17 double plays are not very savvy? And when anyone argued against me, I'd totally ignore their facts and tell them they've been blinded by Phillips's glowing smile and home run power. I think I'd get pretty annoying very quickly.

I also think that I'd be bad for a site that is built around discussion and debate. These types of diaries aren't about discussion. They are about shouting matches. It's like talk radio on the web.

I've had some interesting arguments with Michael that I really enjoyed, but frankly I can't remember one that has happened in the last two seasons. When he first came to the site in 2005, he was a little obnoxious, but he was also open to debating topics. We had some good discussions and I even think we came to some agreements (I agreed that Dunn has holes in his swing, and he agreed that OBP and SLG are better stats for evaluating a hitter). But he's not here for that type of discussion anymore. I believe he's just here to get people yelling back and forth at each other. I think this would be why JD banned him.

chandrathan has come out of the darkness and has seen a great light!

by Slyde on Jul 30, 2007 9:06 AM EDT up reply actions

If you don't like what he has to say...

Then why even respond to him? It takes at least two people to have an argument.

If you know he is just here to stir up fights, then why do you feed into it? I assure you, it'd upset him a lot more if you just ignored him, or posted pictures of cats, than it does you guys arguing right back at him.

I just don't think it's cool to have banned him. And I don't think it's cool that people get attacked on here so viciously if they happen to mention "Hey, Adam Dunn just struck out." Look at what has happened to Zach. Every one of his posts now involve him somehow saying he doesn't want Adam Dunn traded.

"Give them this: they never let the fact that only half of what they posted was funny stop them from posting still more." - Rastronomicals

by chandrathan on Jul 30, 2007 10:15 AM EDT up reply actions

I guess I'm just not a very big person.

by Slyde on Jul 30, 2007 10:17 AM EDT up reply actions

Holla

big ups to the Lollipop Guild.

I Is Unacculturated in an antrhropological sort of way

by Pops Daniels on Jul 30, 2007 10:55 AM EDT up reply actions

Come strong.

"This may be representative of my nature as a middle American jerk-off." ~Pops

by Fat Vegas Alan on Jul 30, 2007 11:02 AM EDT up reply actions

I got

the hookup

I Is Unacculturated in an antrhropological sort of way

by Pops Daniels on Jul 30, 2007 11:18 AM EDT up reply actions

I love the internet..

(Serious comment here.)

I think it's great that technology has allowed for the creation of something like this. I can imagine that there have always been many many long depressing nights for many little people.

(I guess Red Reporter does much the same thing for Reds fans.)

"This may be representative of my nature as a middle American jerk-off." ~Pops

by Fat Vegas Alan on Jul 30, 2007 11:35 AM EDT up reply actions

yes

quite true and inspiring (sarcasm-free). Now, can we get back to being middle American jerk-offs.

I Is Unacculturated in an antrhropological sort of way

by Pops Daniels on Jul 30, 2007 11:59 AM EDT up reply actions

Why, Pops! Whatever do you mean?

"This may be representative of my nature as a middle American jerk-off." ~Pops

by Fat Vegas Alan on Jul 30, 2007 12:10 PM EDT up reply actions

Really?

-- And I don't think it's cool that people get attacked on here so viciously if they happen to mention "Hey, Adam Dunn just struck out."--

Show me where this has happened?

I think people get attacked when they make arguments that aren't based on any kind of reasonable fact. Which, quite frankly, I'm ok with.

Go look at mlb.com's message boards to see why. This site could get pretty ugly pretty fast if we just had two or three Michael type posters, and that's why I moderate the way I do.

I'd like to think I'm a really reasonable person (I gave NEILYNG, a certifiably insane human being, numerous chances) so if you have any problems with decisions made here feel free to email me and let me know why. There's a pretty good chance I'll change my mind if you make a good argument.

We are all in the gutter, but some of us are looking at the stars. --Oscar Wilde

by JD Arney on Jul 30, 2007 10:54 AM EDT up reply actions

Agreed.

I hate it too when Adam Dunn strikes out. I hate it when he flies out or makes an out of any sort (particularly when he makes two) with men on base. I mention it all the time, but no one attacks me.

As one of the folks who did disagree with Zach, I can say honestly it was more for his statements regarding Narron than what he said about Adam Dunn. I did think at the time that some of his statements were either inconsistent or were not fact-checked, so I disagreed with him on that basis.

Of course, I tend to fact-check the people who disagree with me more often than the people who agree with me, which is why I probably went after Zach, since I am a person who does not think we should trade Adam Dunn for two relief pitchers and who did not like Jerry Narron.

Please don't trade Adam Dunn.

by Paul Householder on Jul 30, 2007 3:53 PM EDT up reply actions

Sorry for that comment Paul

"Always root for the winner. That way you won't be disappointed." -Tug McGraw

by Zach K on Jul 30, 2007 8:31 PM EDT up reply actions

Not a problem.

I didn't think you had to apologize for it. It wasn't a big deal to me, but I was more pointing out to JD that you weren't just getting disagreed with on your Dunn comments.

Please don't trade Adam Dunn.

by Paul Householder on Jul 30, 2007 8:38 PM EDT up reply actions

And from my end...

I have no problem at all with you.

Please don't trade Adam Dunn.

by Paul Householder on Jul 30, 2007 8:40 PM EDT up reply actions

Really?

I'm not a Dunn Fan and I think everyone knows that, but unlike Michael I don't go on and on about it or think he is the reason the reds lose. I don't think people pick on me because I hate Dunn, it's most likely cause I said some dumb things in the past. Thanks for looking out for me though!

"Always root for the winner. That way you won't be disappointed." -Tug McGraw

by Zach K on Jul 30, 2007 2:15 PM EDT up reply actions

the problem with ignoring

There will always be new posters unfamiliar with Michael who get drawn in by his bait. Trolls feed on this.

It's not the negativity. It's the misdirected negativity.

by Red Menace on Jul 30, 2007 3:26 PM EDT up reply actions

if you BAN him

then YOU just don't KNOW baseball

Marty may have a shirt on, but Billy Beane just ripped his off and is squeezing his nipples. - Brendan's ukkah

by boobs on Jul 29, 2007 11:08 PM EDT up reply actions

too many elipses....

can't follow a thought....brain backfiring....reboot...reboot....it's too late....

Anyone know who has led the Reds in RBI for the last 3 seasons? Who leads the Reds in 2-out RBI this year? Who leads the Reds in RBI in the 7th inning or later with the team trailing? Anyone knows these answers? Anyone?

chandrathan has come out of the darkness and has seen a great light!

by Slyde on Jul 29, 2007 11:18 PM EDT reply actions

jeff keppinger

and he can't answer because he's done been banned

Marty may have a shirt on, but Billy Beane just ripped his off and is squeezing his nipples. - Brendan's ukkah

by boobs on Jul 29, 2007 11:19 PM EDT up reply actions

Hey boobs?

"This may be representative of my nature as a middle American jerk-off." ~Pops

by Fat Vegas Alan on Jul 29, 2007 11:22 PM EDT up reply actions

hey alan!

Marty may have a shirt on, but Billy Beane just ripped his off and is squeezing his nipples. - Brendan's ukkah

by boobs on Jul 29, 2007 11:41 PM EDT up reply actions

I've got a question..

..and I fear I know the answer.

I was working on a nice diary with stats and links and pictures and corny alliteration and everything and well, it's gone. I don't know how it happened but my laptop just decided to close my RR tab.

So I can't find it on my end but if I had "previewed" it twice or thrice is it possible for you or Slyde or JD to locate it on "your end?"

No? Didn't think so.

"This may be representative of my nature as a middle American jerk-off." ~Pops

by Fat Vegas Alan on Jul 29, 2007 11:51 PM EDT up reply actions

yeah im of no help there

but i can offer a smarmy tip: I usually write long diaries in a word processing program like wordpad (nothing as involved as word) and copy and paste it over. that way i can save. sorry about the late advice.

Marty may have a shirt on, but Billy Beane just ripped his off and is squeezing his nipples. - Brendan's ukkah

by boobs on Jul 29, 2007 11:55 PM EDT up reply actions

Yeah, I've done that before..

..and I don't know why I wasn't doing that tonight (especially as the diary grew and grew and grew).

But. I. Wasn't.

"This may be representative of my nature as a middle American jerk-off." ~Pops

by Fat Vegas Alan on Jul 30, 2007 12:02 AM EDT up reply actions

If you use Firefox

The diary might still be there if you undo close tab.

Or if Firefox crashed altogether, it should ask you if you want to restore when you start it again, and your diary might be there.

No help if you don't use Firefox, but it's one more reason to switch. ;-)

All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?

by BubbaFan on Jul 29, 2007 11:59 PM EDT up reply actions

That also works if you use Maxthon...

"Give them this: they never let the fact that only half of what they posted was funny stop them from posting still more." - Rastronomicals

by chandrathan on Jul 30, 2007 12:02 AM EDT up reply actions

Is Maxthon..

..our centerfielder in Billings?

"This may be representative of my nature as a middle American jerk-off." ~Pops

by Fat Vegas Alan on Jul 30, 2007 12:04 AM EDT up reply actions

nah

it's jonathan's secret screen name when he's away from chandra and having a tryst with Max Headroom.

Marty may have a shirt on, but Billy Beane just ripped his off and is squeezing his nipples. - Brendan's ukkah

by boobs on Jul 30, 2007 12:07 AM EDT up reply actions

Max has no arms, legs or torso.

So by "tryst" you mean...?

"This may be representative of my nature as a middle American jerk-off." ~Pops

by Fat Vegas Alan on Jul 30, 2007 12:17 AM EDT up reply actions

face tryst

Marty may have a shirt on, but Billy Beane just ripped his off and is squeezing his nipples. - Brendan's ukkah

by boobs on Jul 30, 2007 12:21 AM EDT up reply actions

That's what I thought.

Actually, that's what I started to think and then I thought that I had better start thinking other thougths.

"This may be representative of my nature as a middle American jerk-off." ~Pops

by Fat Vegas Alan on Jul 30, 2007 1:04 AM EDT up reply actions

Y'all talkin' about Coutlangus?

by Brendanukkah on Jul 30, 2007 1:09 AM EDT up reply actions

Not me.

I'm on to life's other mysteries.

"This may be representative of my nature as a middle American jerk-off." ~Pops

by Fat Vegas Alan on Jul 30, 2007 1:19 AM EDT up reply actions

but how's the New Coke?

It's not the negativity. It's the misdirected negativity.

by Red Menace on Jul 30, 2007 3:30 AM EDT up reply actions

Is Firefox..

..one of those Sonic the Hedgehog spin-off games?

"This may be representative of my nature as a middle American jerk-off." ~Pops

by Fat Vegas Alan on Jul 30, 2007 12:03 AM EDT up reply actions

That's my style of writing too...

I just can't stop with the elipses... usually...

"Can I do Nomo? Uh, no. It's too herky jerky. I'd probably pull a disk." -Ken Griffey Jr.

by crolfer on Jul 30, 2007 9:58 AM EDT up reply actions

PS

I would also like to point out that even if you think Erardi's take is "gibberish," it's clearly not uninformed. He put a lot of work into that article. Mining stats can be a hard slog (I notice you didn't bother to include any), and it's far easier to recycle platitudes like "good things happen when you make contact" and ignis fatuus such as "clutch hitters."

The ad hominem way you approach Erardi and the fact that you felt the need to write a long diary about it to stir the pot makes me think that the article does not, in fact, strike you as gibberish. It actually scares you a bit. It's a reasoned argument about a player's value to a major league club, backed up by statistics. And it appears in a major news organ for the city of Cincinnati where a lot of people who have never read or heard this sort of argument before will see it and might reconsider their opinions. I think you read it with the irksome feeling that you might be wrong about Dunn's worth to this team.

You are.

"Two Dunn's enter, but only one Dunn will leave...unless neither do because they decide to play cards, drink beer, golf, and fish."--SlydeFrog

by Man Mountain on Jul 29, 2007 11:25 PM EDT reply actions

I was

proud of 'ol John for the article. Newspaper sport sections are not simmering cauldrons of new ideas. They are generally about getting your work done, simply and on deadline. This appears as if it was approached how a regular print reporter would. Compile info and defer to others with knowledge in the field, and present the idea. If you agree with it or not, I wouldn't call this something to get that worked up about. It's just unusual in this fishwrapper.

I Is Unacculturated in an antrhropological sort of way

by Pops Daniels on Jul 30, 2007 11:04 AM EDT up reply actions

Michael, do you really think...

...that none of it has any merit?

Might you try to relax and take a look and the many facets of sabermetrics that are discussed in the Enquirer and here at Red Reporter and maybe pick one part that kinda maybe makes a little bit of sense and then maybe ask a few questions and discuss genially?

"This may be representative of my nature as a middle American jerk-off." ~Pops

by Fat Vegas Alan on Jul 29, 2007 11:29 PM EDT reply actions

ASDJFLASKJDFLKJASD

JALSDJFKLASDHFADSLKHADSLKHASDLFKJ

Hey look I can make as much sense as Michael.

by Geki on Jul 30, 2007 12:09 AM EDT reply actions

After a quick check...

Dunn's career numbers show that with Runners in Scoring Position, his Average and slugging percentage drop off considerably. (As compared to his overall average and slugging)

However, his OBP is quite a bit higher with RISP. I assume this can be attributed to intentional walks?

"Give them this: they never let the fact that only half of what they posted was funny stop them from posting still more." - Rastronomicals

by chandrathan on Jul 30, 2007 12:27 AM EDT reply actions

Intentional

And the fact that pitchers don't give him anything to hit with runners on base. Because they, you know, think he's a pretty good hitter.

We are all in the gutter, but some of us are looking at the stars. --Oscar Wilde

by JD Arney on Jul 30, 2007 12:36 AM EDT up reply actions

Except (perhaps)..

..when a better-than-average pitcher says to his catcher and manager, "I know Adam Dunn is a good hitter but c'mon, I'm Wade Miller and I can send this little pony back to the salt lick."

So, correct me if I'm wrong, that might account for his drop-off in production in such situations.

"This may be representative of my nature as a middle American jerk-off." ~Pops

by Fat Vegas Alan on Jul 30, 2007 12:45 AM EDT up reply actions

Don't forget that Dunn often bats

5th with no one of consequence behind him in the order. This can allow the pitcher the luxury of giving Adam less good pitches to hit.

They say it is all over in the blink of an eye. Don't Blink.

by Madville on Jul 30, 2007 6:47 AM EDT up reply actions

Nice Texas reference, Al

They say it is all over in the blink of an eye. Don't Blink.

by Madville on Jul 30, 2007 3:08 PM EDT up reply actions

Thanks pardner, but now that I think of it..

..do horses and ponies lick salt licks?

Maybe only cattle lick salt licks.

And also, I probably shouldn't have used Wade Miller when trying to give an example of a better than average pitcher but A] he pitched for Dunn's hometown Texas team for years and B] he owns Adam Dunn. (Miller is now a Cub if you go looking for him on that link.)

"This may be representative of my nature as a middle American jerk-off." ~Pops

by Fat Vegas Alan on Jul 31, 2007 9:26 AM EDT up reply actions

Most animals like salt licks

deer, raccoons, Brendan...

"Two Dunn's enter, but only one Dunn will leave...unless neither do because they decide to play cards, drink beer, golf, and fish."--SlydeFrog

by Man Mountain on Jul 31, 2007 4:22 PM EDT up reply actions

I also like little ponies

Even the wrathful ones.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fcCCSpK2Amw

by Brendanukkah on Jul 31, 2007 4:38 PM EDT up reply actions

Ehhh...

However, his OBP is quite a bit higher with RISP. I assume this can be attributed to intentional walks?

Kind of yes - all of his IBBs are with RISP, as you'd expect.

But he's also drawing more non-IBBs. Overall, he non-intentionall walks 17.4% of PAs (once IBBs are taken out); with RISP, it jumps to 19%; and with 2 outs and RISP, 20.8%.

Further, as I posted in the other Michael thread, You'd also see he puts the ball in play more often (which no one talks about): 74.2% vs. 72.6%. That's right - despite what Michael thinks, Dunn does appear to change his approach with runners on, and it seems to hurt him (and the team).

What I think is happening, is (1) he's not getting as many pitches to hit, (2) but he's trying to hit more of those pitches that are now worse to swing at, so (3) his BA (and SLG) is dropping. It might be better advice to tell him "Just approach these situations like any other - wait on your pitch and drive it."

just....wow.

by sidnancy on Jul 30, 2007 2:13 PM EDT up reply actions

Dunn != Gwynn

"Just approach these situations like any other - wait on your pitch and drive it."
- can I place my vote for sidnancy as hitting coach! please! Are there any real hitting coaches out there that teach this kind of philosophy? If so, how can we get one hired on in cincinnati? I think asking Dunn to be Tony Gwynn is a bad idea, because that takes a certain kind of skill that dunn clearly doesnt have, so just letting him keep one approach at the plate constantly sounds great to me. Even other than statistically, I (and I'm sure some of you) can see the difference in his approach this year, and I don't like it at all. Weakly flying out to LF with a runner on second is no better than a whiff.

'Clutch' to me is the epitome of experimenter's bias.

by TheDude @ Red Reporter on Jul 30, 2007 3:11 PM EDT up reply actions

i agree

dunn is a big dumb monster, and i mean that in the nicest way possible. you dont teach frankenstein advanced chess strategy, you just let him punch the other guy in the mouth. and the next guy and the next guy and the next guy and the next guy and the next guy

you know who the reds need? lebron james.

by Charlie Scrabbles on Jul 30, 2007 3:16 PM EDT up reply actions

Will you introduce me to Dunn?

And get me an autograph?

I mean, you know him and all...

Reds tailgate party at RFK August 2, 5-6:30pm

by Daedalus on Jul 31, 2007 9:16 AM EDT up reply actions

im a fairly new member of the RR congregation

so this past week has been my first taste of a guy like michael having a loud, dissenting opinion around here. i like it. i like it for the same reason people like the maury povich show: it is human nature to enjoy those precious few moments in our short existences when we realize we are smarter than someone else. im not a big stat-head like some prominent members here, and i only have an elementary understanding of sabr-principles (and i dont see the need to further educate myself). but mike my man, they should do a bud light commercial about you.

"keppinger could be the best hitter on this team"

fuck the heck.

Barry Larkin is better than 10 super bowls put together

by Charlie Scrabbles on Jul 30, 2007 1:28 AM EDT reply actions

You mean?

one of those "real men of genius" type of commercials. Here's to you mister uninformed loudmouthed contrarian.

I Is Unacculturated in an antrhropological sort of way

by Pops Daniels on Jul 30, 2007 11:07 AM EDT up reply actions

Great!

Now I want to hear that commercial.

by Brendanukkah on Jul 30, 2007 11:46 AM EDT up reply actions

Hahahahaha!!!

Please don't trade Adam Dunn.

by Paul Householder on Jul 30, 2007 3:46 PM EDT up reply actions

I think he means

Milwaukee's Best, you know the men should act like men commercials.

Hope Springs Eternal! Go Reds

by Caleb on Jul 30, 2007 7:43 PM EDT up reply actions

Dunn as "RBI guy"

I just want to stop you from saying he in an "RBI guy". He has scored 50 more runs than he has driven in in his career and has never driven in more than he has scored until this season. In fact his Runs and RBI numbers look an awful lot like a prototypical #3 hitter, and yet he seems to hit 4th and 5th most often for some god awful reason (not that it matters all that much). He is a "Run Producer", and quite a good one (but not outstanding) at that.

Also, I want to say something regarding your 30 points of batting average RISP differential. Suppose he gets 200 at bats in the RISP category for a season, how many hits less does he get than another hitter who doesn't lose those 30 points? 6! 6 hits! You are making a huge stink over 6 hits??? 30 points of batting average is not a big deal when compared to the quality of those hits, keep in mind some hits wont even score a runner from second!

"How's that for third grade thinking?" - Oh , the irony!

'Clutch' to me is the epitome of experimenter's bias.

by TheDude @ Red Reporter on Jul 30, 2007 3:27 PM EDT reply actions