Jay Bruce to take his cues from Adam Dunn?

fin

i think cartoon hearts just started pouring out of my eyes.

There's been some idle speculation among Reds prospectors wondering how Reds fans will take to Bruce when they realize he strikes out a lot. This is a brilliant solution: because Adam Dunn made him that way. It all fits together like a watch.

I'm going back down to my mom's basement.

Adam Dunn, his entire career, has been one thing, and one thing only:  A guy who gets on base (he's been in the top 10 in the league in times on base 3 times) and, when he hits the ball, hits it hard (this is the third year he's been in the top 10 in XBH).  He's never hit for average (one year he hit .266); no one's ever nominated him for a gold glove; one year he stole 19 bases (but was thrown out 9 times, which isn't a good percentage).

Yet, year in and year out (other than last year), he's been one of the top run producers in the league.  And guess what?  When he's hit well, the Reds have scored alot of runs - in his 3 best hitting years, the Reds have been 1st, 7th, and 10th in scoring (how did that '04 team not score runs???); in his 3 worst years, the team was 9th, 9th, and 13th.  So with one exception, his production has mirrored the offense's.

More importantly, while you dismiss it, the pitching has been the problem throughout the new century, not Adam Dunn.  This will be the 7th consecutive year the Reds have been 10th or worse in runs allowed; 6 of those they've been 13th or worse; 4 they've been one of the 2 worst.

But you don't want to hear that.  You want to hear that the team lacks "savvy"; that Dunn sucks because he doesn't "run out to his position".  Teams don't have savvy; they score runs.  And Adam Dunn does more to help this team score runs, year in and year out, than anyone else (and than the vast majority of players in the majors).

The idea that some American League team will ultimately end up with Adam Dunn at which point he will begin a hall of fame career as a DH is MYTH.  If Dunn has a HOF career, it's already started.  I don't think he'll be a HOFer, but if he is, the foundation has been set.

As a GM, the first things you will look at as you sort through the Adam Dunn fact sheet are:

-~195 Ks per year
-~.219 lifetime BA with RISP
-~.250 lifetime BA
-salary somewhere in the 10-15 million/yr

If those are the first things you look at, you're a bigger idiot than people assume; you'd certainly be too stupid to be a GM of a major league team.

The first thing you'd look at is that Dunn is only 27 years old, and is entering the best part of his career, if history is to be believed.

Next, you'd see a guy who gets on base 38% of the time, 23rd among active players, meaning you have at most one guy on the team who's going to make fewer outs than him.  And if you knew anything at all about baseball, you'd know that outs are the most precious thing there is, and that not making outs is the most important thing you can do.

You'd see that he hits .220 with RISP because he's walked so much; in 23.8% of PA vs. 13.9% when no runner is in scoring position.  You'd also see he puts the ball in play more often (which no one talks about):  74.2% vs. 72.6%.

You'd also see that when he does hit the ball, he hits it hard.  This will be the 4th year in a row that he's hit more than 40 HRs.  Other players who've hit 40+ each of the past 3 years:
1.  Albert Pujols

Finally, you'd look at your current DH.  The only team who has a better hitter at DH is Boston (before you say "Cleveland", look at Hafner's stats this year).  You'd also see that Ortiz and Hafner are much older than Dunn.

You won't go any futher as a GM. You will say "Next". You won't even make it to the ~40 HRs/year or what .380 OBP?? you won't even get that far.  As I said, if you passed before looking at those two things, you'd lose your job.

As a GM, you'll know intuitively that you can do better for your TEAM with a platoon or by giving some young player opportunity.  Name two players who'll be available after the year who, if platooned, would equal Dunn's production.  You can't.

You won't want to get married to having to play him every night as a DH with that type of production.  As I stated, he's a better hitter than almost every DH in the league; why wouldn't you want to?

Oakland and Boston have already effectively "passed" on Dunn (guillen trade and WMP trade)... other A.L. teams will as well.  As someone said earlier, how do you know this?  How do you know Dunn was offered to either team?  Bowden would have been run out of town if they'd offered Dunn for Harang, and rightly so.  Arroyo was merely an average pitcher (much like this year); again, Krivsky would have been run out of town.

I'm beginning to think that we won't get much if anything for Lohse and we won't get much if anything for Hatteberg and we won't get anything for Weathers because Wayne won't trade him and we might get a lil' sumpin for Edwin because Wayne will think, "Well, I guess I gotta do something."

howard does have better stats, but i think the comparison is not far off.  i just wonder what michael's cutoff line is for suckitude.

It's actually more annoying at this point than Michael's fatuous Dunn argument.

Now that you're here, you can get back to answering those multiple choice questions I gave you almost six months ago.  There's only 5 of them, so I figure at just over a month each, you should have extremely enlightening answers for us.

http://www.redreporter.com/comments/2006/8/31/22388/9352/66#66