The 2007 Draft - Who to watch for Part II

by jmcclain19 on Jun 6, 2007 12:42 AM EDT Comment 15 comments

In our first 2007 Draft installment, we took a look at who the Reds could potentially take with the 15th overall pick.

Next up we're going to put the spotlight on who the Reds could potentially (or should) target with their two picks in the lengthy Supplemental round, the 34th & 53rd overall picks. I've just thrown a bunch of names out there that could go in either slot, as once you get past the top 10-12 guys, the next 30-50 aren't that far apart talent wise. I don't pretend to have any insider information, and most baseball pundits don't venture a guess beyond the 1st round, so this is just a compilation of some interesting draft prospects.

Corey Brown, CF, Oklahoma State
All around athlete with big time pop and gold glove-esq CF defensive skills - but with potential holes in his swing. Sound familiar to anyone?

Tim Alderson, RHP, Horizon HS, Scottsdale
Real wild card. Dominating stuff with mid 90's fastball & a nasty offspeed offering to go with pinpoint control. But he's got a weird motion, violent mechanics, and only pitches out of the stretch. Some see him as an ace, others as a closer, others as a TJ surgery waiting to happen.
MiLB.com Scouting Report & Video

Brad Suttle, 3B, Univ of Texas
If the Reds don't decide to go the Dominguez/Aherns route with their first pick, perhaps this is another way to get a bat from a corner IF spot. Strong Arm & good D to go with solid gap power, but he's slow, many wonder if he'll ever hit for power and he's only a sophomore so he'll have some serious leverage to use on Draft Day.
MiLB.com Scouting Report & Video

Kyle Russell, OF, Univ of Texas
Lefty/Lefty Athletic OF type with big time power but the same Stubbs type questions of whether his power is a non-wood bat mirage. Strikes out by the bushel. Just like Suttle, a sophomore seeking big time money who will have some leverage to use.
MiLB.com Scouting Report & Video

Kyle Blair, RHP, Los Gatos HS, Calif
Polished HS pitcher with excellent control and three good pitches to go with his low 90s fastball. But none of the three are well above average and he's a relative new comer to the scene after skyrocketing the last few months.
MiLB.com Scouting Report & Video

Aaron Poreda, LHP, Univ of San Francisco
Big 6-6 lefty with plus mid 90s fastball with excellent command. Might be Aaron Harang's left handed twin. No real solid pitches beyond his fastball though & has low career strikeout rates.
MiLB.com Scouting Report & Video

Nick Noonan, SS/2B, Francis Parker HS, Calif
So I'll let a little personal info slip in, this is the guy that I wish beyond hope that the Reds can nab at 34. Loads of Chase Utley comparisons fit in here. Big time left handed bat, extremely athletic, above average base stealer - above average at every tool, though not spectacular. He'll be a middle infielder, but the knock on him is that despite being a SS up till now, he just won't cut it range or arm wise as a major league SS.
MiLB.com Scouting Report & Video

Yasmani Grandal, C, Miami Springs HS, Miami
Rated as one of the best, if not a close 2nd, defensive catchers available in the draft. Like most catchers, has questions on whether or not his bat will take him to the bigs.
MiLB.com Scouting Report & Video

Justin Jackson, SS, Roberson HS, Asheville, N.C.
Well above aveage defensive SS with a cannon for an arm. According to BA some scouts think he'll eventually hit for power, others don't. Prolific basestealer as well
MiLB.com Scouting Report & Video

Pete Kozma, SS, Owasso HS, OK
Another Johnny Come lately who earned himself quite a bit of cash with a big senior year. Was projected as a 5th to 6th rounder this spring, now is being mentioned as a potential 1st round guy. Not a flashy guy, just solid at every key skill, and could be an every day MLB level SS. Supposedly has off the charts baseball smarts and fundamentals.
MiLB.com Scouting Report & Video

J.P. Arenciba, C, Tennessee
Another catcher with a big time bat. However unlike the others previously listed, there are some, but not unanimous doubts that Arenciba is good enough to stay a catcher. Question is do you think his bat's special enough if he's a 1B?
MiLB.com Scouting Report & Video

That's about half the list, I'll see if we can finish the other half tomorrow

0 recs | Comment 15 comments

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Comments

I absolutely love

the thought of Noonan going to the Reds. I hope he lasts that long. The guy's a ballplayer.

Arenciba could be a great pickup if he can stay at catcher. He had a subpar senior season, as did Tennessee, but injuries played into that. The injuries aren't a longterm concern, though, and he could be a great value pick who turns into a very productive big leaguer.

I'm really big on Kyle Blair. He appears to have the fastball-curve combination to succeed, though adding a changeup would help. He'scommitted to U. of San Diego, so he could be a tough sign.

Good work jmmclain19.

The others on the list have the usual pros and cons. I'd be happy to have any of them, but wouldn't cry if the Reds didn't get any of them.

I wouldn't mind seeing the Reds tab Nathan Vinyard, a LHP from Woodland HS in Cartersville, Ga.

We Are ... Marshall!

by Thundering Turtle on Jun 6, 2007 9:08 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Let me be the first to say

Miss it, Noonan, miss it! Nooooooonan!

2007 Reds Threat Level is Green

by Slyde on Jun 6, 2007 11:47 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Bonus points?

Just kidding Slyde, I love you. In fact...
I was born to love you.
I was boooorn to lick your face.
I was born to rub you,
But you were born to rub me first.

by Brendanukkah on Jun 6, 2007 12:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I really want to respond to this

but I really like diaries like this by jmcclain19 and I'm afraid that if it gets hijacked, he won't do them anymore. Soooo, I will let you have the last word...in this thread.

2007 Reds Threat Level is Green

by Slyde on Jun 6, 2007 12:31 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Fair enough

I too think this is a great post by jmcclain. I am pretty unfamiliar with high school and college baseball and have no idea about the prospects we should be targeting as an organization, or hoping we should get, as a fanbase. Red Reporter is highly praised (and rightfully so) for having very smart, reasoned, and well-informed posters. I'm not one of them, but I do appreciate the work and research those who are put into their posts. So thanks to you, jmcclain, and everyone else who puts so much useful content and information on this site.

Now I'm excited about the prospect of a Chase Utley, Jr. ...prospect. The kids could call him ChuJu!

by Brendanukkah on Jun 6, 2007 12:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Mock draft from Yahoo

Yahoo's Jeff Passan has the Reds taking Julio Borbon:

15) Cincinnati Reds: Julio Borbon, OF, Tennessee - One of the most well-stocked organizations in baseball, the Reds can go in plenty of different directions. Early projections linked them to Houston-area third baseman Kevin Ahrens, though this seems a bit early. Borbon, the polished outfielder, seems a better fit, much like Texas center fielder Drew Stubbs was last season.

Interesting that he calls them one of the most well stocked organizations. I guess at the lower levels there is some potential talent, which can make draft choices interesting, but I still don't think the Reds are to the point of being considered well stocked in the minors.

2007 Reds Threat Level is Green

by Slyde on Jun 6, 2007 2:44 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

C'mon, Slyde

All the ladies know the Reds are stacked down low.

To be serious, I would really like Krivsky to grab the best young middle infielder or catcher in the first round. Milton Loo is MIA and Janish is a stretch. I like Valaika's numbers, but 2B seems to be a hole in the minors (with Juan Francisco a possible 2B/3B guy). From what I've read, the Reds don't have shit for catching in the minors.

Bruce and Stubbs are first rounders already in the system. Let's address some other needs. I'd take Mesoraco if he's there.

"He's not gay...just homererotic."--ken

by Man Mountain on Jun 6, 2007 4:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

our minor league teams

AA and below are pretty good.
Last Year, the Lookouts were great, I was shocked to find that the Bats line-up was so similar to 05.

GO REDS!

by ewquinn on Jun 6, 2007 4:35 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

1st round pick

Fay said Buckley was talking up Ahrens, but I saw a blurb on BA that said the Reds were targeting Ahrens at 34 and one of Julio Borbon, Blake Beavan, and Daniel Moskos at 15. I, for one, will be pissed if we take Ahrens at 15 (and Borbon wouldn't excite me either).

As for the Reds system being stacked, that's a stretch, but there are a lot of prospects taking strides this year. Valaika, Turner, Francisco, Watson, Fisher, Gardner, Stubbs, Bruce, Votto, Bailey, Dickerson, Cueto, Wood, McBeth, Medlock, and Guevara all look like they've got potential major league talent, which is more than the Reds have had in years. Still, I wouldn't go around praising the system's depth.

by Geki on Jun 6, 2007 6:00 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Goldstein

BP's (formerly BA's) Kevin Goldstein, who is well respected, has the Reds gambling that Ahrens will be around for their first supp. pick and taking Phillippe Aumont (I definitely misspelled that) with #15.

God, please don't let Krivsky take Borbon.

Don't think Arencibia will last to the supplemental picks, but it would be nice.

by greg456 on Jun 6, 2007 10:43 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Spelled it right

And yeah, BA said something similar about Ahrens slipping to 34.

by Geki on Jun 6, 2007 11:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

really?

Wow. Clearly I've been doing too much reading, I'm accidentally spelling French names properly.

by greg456 on Jun 7, 2007 12:05 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Also, as to Borbon

I wouldn't be completely opposed simply because he'd actually give us someone in our system who could lead off. Toss in the fact that I don't see Drew Stubbs ever sniffing the majors, and Borbon in CF would still be nice. Still, picking him would be an indictment on Stubbs and I don't know that Krivsky is man enough for that.

by Geki on Jun 7, 2007 12:06 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Geki

What do you make of Stubbs' May performance? Is he just overperforming against younger talent or is it a fluke month for a flawed offensive player? I like his improvement, but I've seen nothing that says he's actually changed anything major to be a better long term offensive player. I fear he's a guy with plus D, but no offense, i.e. a classic 80's AAA player.

"He's not gay...just homererotic."--ken

by Man Mountain on Jun 7, 2007 2:42 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

His month of May leaves a lot to be desired

If he can continue to flash the eye that generated 23 walks for him in the month then you'll begin to see me singing his praises. That said, he still only managed to hit .270 in the month, he still averaged a strikeout per game, and he still showed pretty minimal power. My expectations for Stubbs drop with seemingly every game he plays. He's 22 out of Texas and hasn't shown the ability to hit for average or power in low-A.

Stubbs has some interesting splits as well. He's hitting for a decent average (.284) but absolutely no power against lefties, but hitting .255 against righties with better walk numbers and okay power. His home/road splits are also downright insane. He has a .556 OPS on the road, compared to .938 at home. I'm not sure how Dayton plays, but I know the rest of the Midwest league isn't overwhelmingly pitcher's parks. I'm also less than encouraged by the fact that he's 12-20 in steal attempts. He's got plenty of speed, but he's gotta learn how to use it better. It'll only get tougher to run as he moves up through the system.

Overall, unless Stubbs either flashes more power than he has so far or has some kind of breakthrough in hitting for average, I don't think I ever see him as a decent starter for us, and regardless of that, I don't see him hitting the majors until he's at least 25. All while Tim Lincecum is kicking ass in the majors right now.

by Geki on Jun 7, 2007 2:54 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs