I know we're all expecting no less than a complete game shutout from Bailey this weekend, but I decided to check out what other highly regarded starter did in their first outing. I drew this list from memory so let me know who I left out (I excluded Liriano because he started in the pen and seemed to be on a short leash in his first start). I wanted to look at pitchers 22 and younger from the last couple years, but ended up including Lincecum and Weaver who were 23. It would be a lot better to just have 21 and under or pitchers with less than 300 minor league innings, but that would require going back a lot further to assemble the pool and I'm doing this half-assed. Someone else feel free to move on that.

            Age  D  IP  H  ER  BB  SO  HR  ERA  Pit  GmSc
Hughes       21  L  4.1 7  4   1   5   0  8.31   91   37  
Lincecum     23  -  4.1 5  5   5   5   2 10.38  100   33
Hamels       22  -  5   1  0   5   7   0  0.00   92   67
Verlander    22  L  5.1 7  4   3   4   0  6.75   95   39
Pelfrey      22  W  5   5  3   4   3   0  3.60  104   46
Weaver       23  W  7   3  0   1   5   0  0.00   97   75
Billingsley  21  -  5.1 6  2   2   3   0  3.38   98   49
Cain         20  L  5   3  2   4   2   1  3.60  103   51
Olsen        21  W  5.2 4  2   3   7   1  1.59   89   59
Sanchez      22  W  5.2 7  0   0   2   0  0.00   96   57
Duke         22  -  7   5  3   1   9   1  3.77  106   63

Total          4-2 59.2 53 25  29  52  5       1071  576  

                     IP   H     ER    BB    SO   HR    ERA   Pit    GmSc   WHIP   K/9  K/BB
Average             5.1 4.81  2.27  2.63  4.72  0.45  3.77  97.36   52.36  1.37  7.85  1.79

Obviously these guys were all on strict pitch counts. Hughes and Tiny Tim fared the worst so Homer has a chance to cement 2007's best debut. On the other hand Cleveland is second in the AL in runs per game. What are you folks predicting?

UPDATE by Slyde: I was able to run a report at Baseball Reference that gives all starters aged 21 and under who started in their first game pitched in the Majors since 1957. Check it out. A second version sorts by Game Score. Bailey has some tough competition among the Reds.