The 2007 Draft - Who to watch for

by jmcclain19 on Jun 2, 2007 7:36 PM EDT Comment 29 comments

With the calendar turning to June, that means the MLB draft is just around the corner.

The Reds have themselves quite a few picks in the first 150, and to start us off, here is a quick rundown of players to look out for with the Reds 15th overall pick - guys who likely to be available and/or have been rumored to be linked with the Reds.

Matt Wieters, C/RP, Georgia Tech
Boras guy, may fall due to signing demands. Consensus best college hitter available (as a switch hitter no less), made even more elite by the fact he is a catcher. Also serves as the Yellow Jackets closer.
MiLB.com scouting information & video

Matt Dominguez, 3B, HS
Reds are familiar with him as he attends the same high school as last year's X round pick Josh Ravin. Big time power bat combined with gold glove defense at third base.
MiLB.com scouting information & video

Jason Heyward, OF/1B, HS
Huge monster power with good strike zone judgement from the left side. Plays CF now but will likely be a LF or 1B in the bigs. Scouting video shows he would be quite the athletic first baseman.
MiLB.com scouting information & video

Kevin Aherns, SS/3B, HS
All around package from Texas, a switch hitting SS who may stay there or slide over to 3B. Was on no one's radar until the last few months, when he rocketed up the charts with a huge senior year (a la Jay Bruce).
MiLB.com scouting information & video

Blake Beavan, RHP, HS
Baseball America reports that the Reds would love to see Beavan fall to them, but it's highly likely that someone will take him before 15. Big 6'7 righty with a nasty 96mph heater and pinpoint control.
MiLB.com scouting information & video

Julio Borbon, OF, Tennessee
Baseball Prospectus floated his name as a potential Reds target due to Chris Buckley's history of only drafting College Bats in the first round (and the lack of them available). Boras client just like Wieters. Been injured for most of the season, but a lefty/lefty speedster in CF with power potential.
MiLB.com scouting information & video

Matt LaPorta, 1B, Florida
Probably the best college power hitter available. Excellent eye & strikezone judgement. Former catcher turned 1B, has had a breakout senior season at Florida after underwhelming in 2006. Not really a defensive stalwort, although the scouting reports say he's much improved at 1B this season.
MiLB.com scouting information & video

Devin Mesoraco, C, HS
Not even making Top 50 lists just a few months ago, another HS bat making noise just weeks before the draft. Baseball America now lists him as the best HS catcher available. Excellent defender with a plus arm and big power bat. What's not to like?
MiLB.com scouting information & video

Nick Schmidt, LHP, Arkansas
The Schmidt rumor has popped up in a few places, with the Reds taking the big polished lefty ace from the SEC. Schmidt has a plus fastball and a plus changeup to go with excellent command. Some may say it's an overdraft because he's listed in most places in the 22-28 range, but it's not overdrafting if you get the guy you really wanted.
MiLB.com scouting information & video

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take the catcher if available

Maybe some of his demands can be offset by getting to hit in GABP

by Caleb on Jun 2, 2007 7:50 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Yeah, but

how long will he stay a catcher?

by ctnyc on Jun 2, 2007 10:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

He's a catcher to stay.

He's defensively solid with an excellent arm, and room to improve. Wieters is the top talent in this draft, in my opinion, and if he slips to our pick and we don't take him, it's just more proof that Castellini is all talk. That said, the chances of him slipping are very, very small.

by Geki on Jun 2, 2007 11:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think

the Cubs will take him at 3. Michael Barrett is a FA at the end of the season, and they seem to be committed to winning now.

by Blue on Jun 3, 2007 3:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

From today's BP:

Devin Mesoraco, C, Punxsutawney HS (PA)

Every draft has that one high school guy, the guy who starts the year as a pretty good prospect. and then keeps going up from there. Mesoraco is that guy. He began the year as clearly the best player in the state, and a guy who was seen as a second- or third-round pick. By May he had entered the first round, and now, with three days to go, it's quite possible that he'll be a top 10 pick. He's as athletic a catcher as you'll find, teams love his projection, and he's seen as very signable. Also, let's face it, his hometown is rife with headline possibilities. Hometown hero to the Pirates at number four? It's possible, if they decide to save a little money.

Too early for flapjacks?

by ken on Jun 4, 2007 5:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

People are stupid

People eat blood sausage.

Fuit quod es, eris quod sum

by Man Mountain on Jun 4, 2007 5:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

How Much Do We Trust Krivsky's Philosophy?

You have to admit, taking Stubbs last year isn't a confidence builder, even if Stubbs reaches his Mike Cameron ceiling.

That said, this is a high school heavy draft, so Wayne's people should be right at home. I agree that Mesoraco is an appealing top target. My wish list would probably look something like this:

first pick:

Heyward
Mesoraco
Ahrens (who's been linked heavily to the Reds)

supplemental 1

Eddie Kunz, rhp, Oregon St.
Nick Hagadone, lhp, Washington
Danny Duffy, lhp, high school

supplemental 2

Jon Lucroy, c, La-Lafayette
Tommy Toledo, rhp, high school
Chris Withrow, rhp, high school
Gary Brown, cf, high school

For the first time in a while, I think we're solid enough in prospect depth to just go with the best available players and not worry so much about addressing particular needs. Except catcher. This is a good draft for 'em, and isn't it about time we went out and got some solid ones?

by brawnyhombre on Jun 2, 2007 8:16 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

brawny

You seem to know your stuff for a guy who's posted only four times in over a year and a half. Speak softly (or infrequently), carry a big stick.

Anyway, I wanted to be the first to ever reply to one of your comments. Yay.

by greg456 on Jun 2, 2007 11:38 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

dunno

I said Lincecum last year, and Weathers this year.

Organization is deep @ SS/3B/1B/OF.

Gotta be C and P draft.

by obc on Jun 2, 2007 11:20 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Eh, that's a stretch.

We're deep in marginal prospects at SS. Loo has potential but hasn't even played in the minors yet this year. Valaika has torn up leagues he's too old for, but probably won't remain at SS. Janish has a solid glove and good eye, but he doesn't have much more than 10 HR power and he hasn't shown much ability to hit for average. He's also 24 and still in AA, so that's not terribly good either.

In terms of 1B and 3B depth, our depth consists of Edwin Encarnacion and Joey Votto. Good options, but there's nothing behind them and if they go down or leave (Edwin's eligible to hit arb after this year, I believe), we've got nothing.

In terms of OF depth, we have Jay Bruce, who is a stud, Josh Hamilton, who is looking studly, and Drew Stubbs, who sucks ass. Not much in the minors beyond that.

Throw in how retarded it is to draft based solely on need in any draft, especially the MLB draft, and you've got a draft that'll blow up in your face real nicely. The only thing in this draft I'd be reluctant to take is an unathletic college 1B, and the only one that comes to mind is Matt LaPorta (which is a shame, because I love his bat). And hell, if Votto has shown that he might be a capable LF in the future, you certainly have to put him on the list as well.

by Geki on Jun 2, 2007 11:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

si

Best player available. Drafting for need means possibly overdrafting, and these guys are somewhat of a crapshoot as it is.

by greg456 on Jun 2, 2007 11:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Best Player Available.

BPA is always the best strategy - within reason. Many will argue that Andrew Brackman is the BPA, and he could be. He could also be Drew Henson Part II - an awful prospect with a ton of pub. With the first pick I'd rather play it a little more on the safe side, since the money is so high. Now with those 2nd, 3rd and 4th round picks, roll the dice and take some chances. A wild hair now and then is a good thing.

Plus you can never, ever have too many guys up the middle.

You can always move a CF over to LF or RF if their D is lacking but their bat is fine. You can always slide over a SS to 3B or 2B. But you can't make a 1B a SS, no matter how hard you want to.

In that respect, I really like what the Reds did last year in the draft. Lots of up the middle guys - and they figured they would just let the chips fall where they need to later on.

by jmcclain19 on Jun 3, 2007 12:53 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Andrew Brackman

Moeller grad. Just sayin'.

Actually, from people that I know that know him, they say he's kind of a dick. But then, he went to Moeller and most of us are that way, right?

2007 Reds Threat Level is Green

by Slyde on Jun 3, 2007 11:26 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I dated a girl

for a spell who is close friends with Brackman. He's kind of a knucklehead, but a nice kid and just sort of goofy. I will always be fond of him for his run in with Reyshawn Terry's nutsack

Fuit quod es, eris quod sum

by Man Mountain on Jun 3, 2007 11:52 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I guess I should amend a bit

The guy I know that knows Brackman interacted a lot with him in high school and said that he was a cocky SOB. I knew a couple of guys in high school that were like that, but once they got to college and weren't THE elite athlete at the school, they came down a bit. So, it's probably not fair to categorize him as a straight dick (snicker) since it's been a couple of years since that assessment was made of him. I'm sure coming face-to-face with another player's genitals on a basketball court might knock you down a notch.

2007 Reds Threat Level is Green

by Slyde on Jun 3, 2007 12:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Marcus Fizer's

balls had that effect on me. I was only 14. I was only a child.

What did I know? What did I know of love's austere and lonely offices?

Fuit quod es, eris quod sum

by Man Mountain on Jun 3, 2007 12:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

thought that was a prerequisite

for admission to that school? j/k

by Caleb on Jun 3, 2007 2:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Loo

Milton Loo is done, he got homesick and retired. Reds control his rights if he ever changes his mind, but he's definitely a longshot at best now.

We are all in the gutter, but some of us are looking at the stars. --Oscar Wilde

by JD Arney on Jun 3, 2007 12:37 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Sure you did :)

Just kidding OBC, but I think it's funny how I read so often "I can't believe _____ passed on Lincecum last year" as if everyone knew he was gonna be as good as he is. I'm not doubting you at all, so don't take it the wrong way, but it's pretty funny how often I read that on various sites.

Good for you for being on top of things last year. I agree, Wieters is the guy if he's there...but I doubt he will be. Heyward is another guy I'd like to see, but he'll probably be gone also.

Of course, we all DID know Stubbs was gonna suck. I didn't know that much about the draft last year, but even I knew not to take him.

I say OBC heads up the Reds draft this year.

by greg456 on Jun 2, 2007 11:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Honestly

A lot of people really did know Lincecum would end up like this. This was pretty much the optimal outcome, but all the flaws that he had at draft time last year were based on speculation and not reality (he's short with an unorthodox delivery therefore he won't be able to hold up) It was just magnified with the Reds because he was such an obvious choice that they blew by taking a guy with perhaps the biggest chance to bust out of anyone else taken in the draft.

by Geki on Jun 3, 2007 2:11 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

yeah

I know a lot of teams projected him as a reliever. Stubbs was a stupid pick, no doubt about it. I remember in the weeks leading up to the draft, BA and other projections consistently had Stubbs going to the Reds, and every single time I read, "Great glove, but ability to hit and make contact in MLB is a real concern." And I'm no expert, but a guy who strikes out like a third of the time in COLLEGE probably won't make it in the pros!

by greg456 on Jun 3, 2007 10:10 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I've heard it said...

his glove is so good they'll accept a .250 batting average in CF. I'm sure the Reds also thought they could help him make more contact. And he's a Texan!

by pw on Jun 3, 2007 10:52 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

What I'd like to see

College pitching or high school hitting. Someone who can contribute before he's 25 (i.e. not Drew fucking Stubbs) would be nice, and while I don't see the desperate need for a pitcher that some see, I wouldn't mind getting another big arm in the system. We have some interesting guys, but nobody who really looks like they're gonna be much more than a number three. An interesting guy to me is Daniel Moskos out of Clemson, a lefty who was a reliever up until late in this season. He's been starting lately. He's a power arm with a nasty breaking ball, and could progress quickly through the system and be a closer of the future for us.

Honestly, this class is really deep, especially compared to last year, and Krivsky's really gonna have to blow it to not grab a guy with stud potential. He fucked up last year, let's hope it doesn't happen again.

by Geki on Jun 2, 2007 11:23 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

on TV this year

That's awesome. It's about time.

by greg456 on Jun 2, 2007 11:36 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

good point

Re: C/ss/cf. I remember Eric Davis was a high school shortstop.
It makes sense to draft high potential guys in those positions.

Remember the days of ED, O'Neill, Sabo, Larkin, Stillwell, Kal, Tracer, Oliver, Dibble, Charlton, Scudder, Armstrong, etc? It would be nice to see the Reds develop prospects consistently. Its been a while since Dunn/Kearns/Coffey.

Its sad that Miguel Perez is the highest rated C in the Reds system. He sounds a lot like Sardinha. Hit softly and carry a big glove.

I hadn't heard Loo was homesick. I'll be damned.

by obc on Jun 3, 2007 10:45 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Loo

His situation came up in a diary a week or so earlier. His homesickness doesn't make sense to me since he's already been away two years in college. Maybe there's serious illness in his family?

by pw on Jun 3, 2007 10:55 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Milton

yet another bad choice involving that name.

keep this in mind when thinking about signing anyone that has Milton in his name:

"These false pretexts and varnished colours failing, Rare in thy guilt how foul must thou appear."

by Caleb on Jun 3, 2007 2:22 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

minorleagueball.com

had a mock draft during the weekend and the Reds wound up with these players:

1. Matt Dominguez, 3B, Chatworth HS. Great bat w/power. Ryan Zimmerman-like glove. Would love to have him.
S. Nick Hagadone, LHP, Washington. Good stuff. Likely a reliever. Could move quickly.
S. Jake McGeary, RHP, Roxbury Latin HS. Terrific pitcher, but as a Stanford sign he's likely unsignable outside of the first round.

Sam Demel, RHP, TCU. Closer who could move quickly. Good results. Violent deliver is worrisome.
Cameron Rupp, C, Katy HS. Apparently named after two great basketball venues. Power-hitting catcher. Signed with Texas. Can play 1B.
John Kaskow, 1B, Coppell HS. Switch-hitter from Texas. Another Stanford sign, so forget about him.
Brandon Workman, RHP, Bowie HS. Another Texas kid who has signed wth Texas. Big (6-5, 220) and throws 95. Mechanics need work.

Kay Sarah Sarah.

We Are ... Marshall!

by Thundering Turtle on Jun 4, 2007 12:53 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

really really

like those first two. If Demel is throws 94, like his scouting report says, he could be a good one. And I don't think Hagadone will be a reliever. If we laid down the coin for the rest of those guys that could be a really nice draft.

Only thing I don't like is that its so many high school players, and I get kinda tired of seeing these guys take so long to be ready for the big leagues.

by Blue on Jun 4, 2007 10:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs