sigh...

Things are dreary in Redland, so I thought I'd embark on a futile exercise. First an anecdote: Last Wednesday I was watching the game at a bar. After Dunn's home run a friend and fellow Reds fan came in from smoking a cigarette. "Dunn just homered," I said. "Oh yeah?" he replied checking the score. "Huh. Figures it was a solo shot."

For some reason the unfairness of this increasingly common observance stuck with me. I later saw the same sentiment expressed here. It just feels like Dunn hits too many solo shots, right? (it certainly doesn't feel like he ever hits a grand slam in the bottom of the ninth, down three with a full count). So I reluctantly probe into the matter, fully aware that I have zero chance of convincing anyone of anything (and for the record I think Dunn has flaws).

2007 Bases Occupied Splits (apologies to those with low resolutions)

 I Split         G   GS  PA  AB  R   H  2B 3B HR RBI  BB IBB  SO HBP  SH  SF ROE GDP  SB CS   BA   OBP   SLG   OPS  BAbip sOPS+ tOPS+ Split
 +-+------------+---+---+---+---+---+---+--+--+--+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+--+-----+-- ---+-----+-----+-----+-----+-----+------------+
    RISP          33      49  39       7  0  0  3  14  10   1  17   0   0   0   0   1         .179  .347  .410  .757  .211    99    71 RISP        
    ---           45     111  96      29  7  1  6   6  14   0  33   1   0   0   1   0         .302  .396  .583  .979  .404   170   117 ---          
    Men On        41      84  71      14  0  1  6  21  13   1  31   0   0   0   0   8         .197  .321  .479  .800  .235   109    77 Men On      
    1--           26      35  32       7  0  1  3   7   3   0  14   0   0   0   0   7         .219  .286  .563  .849  .267   119    83 1--          
    -2-           14      16  13       2  0  0  0   2   3   1   5   0   0   0   0   0         .154  .313  .154  .467  .250    26    15 -2-          
    --3            3       3   3       1  0  0  1   2   0   0   1   0   0   0   0   0         .333  .333 1.333 1.666  .000   296   239 --3          
    12-           17      19  14       2  0  0  1   3   5   0   8   0   0   0   0   1         .143  .368  .357  .725  .200   107    67 12-          
    1-3            6       6   6       1  0  0  0   2   0   0   2   0   0   0   0   0         .167  .167  .167  .334  .250   -15   -23 1-3          
    -23            2       2   1       1  0  0  1   3   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0        1.000 1.000 4.000 5.000 undef  1115   917 -23          
    123            3       3   2       0  0  0  0   2   1   0   1   0   0   0   0   0         .000  .333  .000  .333  .000     4    -8 123

Dunn's .179 avg with RISP certainly won't win him any fans, but our concern here is chiefly the home runs.

Bases Empty 6
Runners on 6
1-run 6
2-run 4
3-run 2
4-run 0

I strongly suspect this isn't out of the ordinary. Here's Griffey's 11 home runs:

Bases Empty 6
Runners on 5
1-run 6
2-run 4
3-run 1
4-run 0

I was in a bar when Griffey smacked his tonight (this seems to be a habit with me) and I didn't hear anyone lament that it was a solo shot.

Does anyone have the average percentage of homeruns that are solo, etc? We've played this game before, but here are the career percentage of various players solo shots to their total home runs.

Derek Jeter    67.7%
David Ortiz    63.3%
Barry Bonds    59.1%
Adam Dunn      56.6%
Reggie Jackson 54.7%
Alex Rodriguez 52.2%

If we continue won't we find that nearly all players hit 50-60 percentage of their homeruns with no one on base (note:Jeter, as a frequent leadoff man is penalized in the above exercise. What's Big Papi's excuse?)

Can we retired this odd criticism? If Dunn leads off an inning (batting sixth) and hits a home run can he be praised? If blame must be passed can it be given to the players who made out before Dunn reached the plate? Can I stop this?

Probably not. If it feels like all of Dunn's home runs are solo shots there's no arguing with that. The Reds keep losing and I'm sad.