Apathy

Maybe you've given up

But don't assume everyone has.

"Players have two things to do. Play and keep their mouths shut." -Sparky Anderson

by boohiss on May 13, 2007 9:52 AM EDT reply actions

Well.....

Teams that fall behind 10.5 games in May generally don't find themselves in contention later in the year.

looking California, and feeling Minnesota...

by obc on May 13, 2007 10:22 AM EDT reply actions

Unless they're the Yankees

In 1978, they were 14 games back on July 9. And came back to win the WS. (Led by Bucky Dent, no less.)

They've done it more recently, too. They were 11 games back at one point in 2005, and 14 games back last year, and each time came back to win the division.

All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named "Bubba"?

by BubbaFan on May 13, 2007 11:00 AM EDT up reply actions

And the Yankees, we ain't

For better or for worse.

by Brendanukkah on May 13, 2007 11:02 AM EDT up reply actions

But...

...the Yankees really didn't buy their way out of it. Strangely, the key to their success lately has been the farm system, and some bargain basement shopping.

In 2005, they brought up Wang and Cano from a farm system that was widely viewed to be completely depleted. Indeed, the only reason Wang and Cano weren't traded was because they couldn't find takers. The only reason they got a chance was sheer desperation. Now Wang's a Cy Young runner-up, Cano's an All-Star, and a lot of teams are kicking themselves because they didn't take them when offered. The Yanks did try some relatively pricy veterans, like Womack and Lawton, but it was Bubba from Columbus who came through for them.

In 2006, fans were screaming for the Yanks to do something when Matsui and Sheffield suffered serious wrist injuries. Cashman instead turned to the farm system, and again, the youngsters came through. At the trade deadline (when many said it would be too late), he did make the big trades the fans were clamoring for, but I'm not sure it helped them. Indeed, the Yanks went into a pretty bad slump after the trades were made, and none of the players acquired were much help in the postseason.

I don't think you need money or a deep farm system (though of course, it helps). I would say the key to the Yankees' recent success, such as it is, has been scouting. They've gotten a lot of useful players off other teams' scrap heaps.

All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named "Bubba"?

by BubbaFan on May 13, 2007 11:34 AM EDT up reply actions

True

Was it '05 when frickin Shawn Chacon and Aaron Small pitched about 500% better than they ever had? Their scouting certainly has been good, but you have to admit that those two guys were blind luck.

by teb7 on May 13, 2007 12:26 PM EDT up reply actions

Well...

I don't know that I'd call it blind luck. I think Cashman puts an emphasis on finding guys who are having good years or otherwise fit the Yankees' needs somehow, without necessarily expecting them to be long-term solutions.

Chacon was an all-star at one point. He lives by his curve ball, and it just didn't curve much in the thin air of Colorado. The Yankees scouts thought he might pitch a lot better in the Bronx, and he did.

He has struggled since. I suspect a lot of his problem is injury. He's got bad knees.

Small...a lot of the stat guys were predicting he would be a one-year phenom. Apparently, pitchers like him sometimes have one outstanding season in their early 30s. So his success wasn't totally unprecedented.

The Yanks have also had great "luck" with Bruney, released by the D-backs, Rasner, dumped by the Nats, Nick Green, a Tampa reject, Aaron Guiel, Royals reject. After awhile, you have to figure there's more to it than luck.

All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named "Bubba"?

by BubbaFan on May 13, 2007 1:37 PM EDT up reply actions

Guh?

Nick Green and Aaron Guiel aren't major league caliber players! Green is a career .242/.312/.351 hitter; Guiel is .246/.322/.414. Those guys are the definition of replacement level, and they didn't exactly excel for the Yankees. Bruney and Rasner have been good for the Yanks so far, so I'll give them credit there, but there's a small sample caveat.

Anyway, where the Yankees scouting staff has really excelled is the farm system, particularly the pitching. Obviously Hughes gets the fanfare, but they are absolutely loaded with arms. Chamberlain, Sanchez, and Betances all have good chances to become rotation regulars. The Yankees scouts far more praise for this than for washed up nobodies like Guiel and Green.

by teb7 on May 13, 2007 2:36 PM EDT up reply actions

exactly

Nick Green and Aaron Guiel aren't major league caliber players!

That's the point. They did their shopping at Wal-Mart.

they didn't exactly excel for the Yankees.

No one was expecting them to excel, or even to be around the next season (which they weren't). But they played well enough. And they were dirt cheap.

Anyway, where the Yankees scouting staff has really excelled is the farm system, particularly the pitching. Obviously Hughes gets the fanfare, but they are absolutely loaded with arms.

Yup. And as recently as last year, people would have laughed at the very idea.

The Yankees scouts far more praise for this than for washed up nobodies like Guiel and Green.

Disagree. Guiel and Green were pleasant surprises. It would have been tough to do better without mortgaging the farm. Everyone was asking for Hughes, Wang, or Cano - sometimes two of those three.

All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named "Bubba"?

by BubbaFan on May 13, 2007 3:02 PM EDT up reply actions

Actually...

At the trade deadline (when many said it would be too late), he did make the big trades the fans were clamoring for, but I'm not sure it helped them. Indeed, the Yanks went into a pretty bad slump after the trades were made...

The Yankees didn't slump after the trade deadline. They played .600 baseball in both August and Sept/Oct. Prior to the trade deadline, the Yankees were producing a 0.78 Run Differential per game. After the deadline, they produced a Run Diff per game of 1.38 (almost double). Pre-deadline, the Yankees' Pythag Win% was .578. Post-deadline, that inceased to .633.

A bunch of that improvement had to do with the acquisition of Bobby Abreu (.926 OPS). But at 13.6M, that's a guy small market teams simply couldn't go after and no potential replacements for his production were waiting in the wings down on the farm.

Cashman instead turned to the farm system, and again, the youngsters came through.

Other than Melky Cabrera (.752) OPS, I'm not sure which other helpful youngsters you're referring to. Cano stepped up, but he was already there. And Cabrera was helpful at a level of only @ one Win above a Replacement-level player for the whole of his season.

by Reds123 on May 13, 2007 1:03 PM EDT up reply actions

semi-famous quote...

"There's golf to be played, tennis to be served up and other things to do out there more important besides worrying about a silly baseball game"

bonus points for coming up with who said it.
HINT I changed one word.

Nobody listens to Andrew

by nlt-andrew68 on May 13, 2007 10:23 AM EDT reply actions

Shocking

how quickly things have fallen apart for the Reds. I guess we all knew everything would have to fall just right for them to contend. Instead we had Griffey either not playing or suboptimal with ailments to start the season, the bullpen imploding, EdE disappointing and so on. I hope there's not a fire sale, but you know lots of guys are going to be leaving.

by pw on May 13, 2007 10:48 AM EDT reply actions

No Question

With this crew, if Castellini really wants to win there's going to have to be big changes so that Bailey, Bruce and Votto can come onboard in 08.

by TR on May 13, 2007 11:52 AM EDT reply actions

Shopping

Wayne ought to be shopping all of the following players at mid-season:

Hatteberg
Conine
Lohse
Stanton
Milton
Weathers
Bellhorn
Santos
TSF Castro

"If what you say is true...[Chia Hiu Liu _Shaolin yu Wyu Dang_ (1985) quoted in "Bring Da Ruckus" _Enter the Wu-Tang (36 Chambers) RCA, 1994.

by Man Mountain on May 13, 2007 12:10 PM EDT up reply actions

That's a good list

I think the whole bullpen should be shopped (not collectively, unless somebody wants that whole mess) because somebody will be willing to give up a potential double-A prospect for them if they are desperate enough.

I'd also consider trading Freel if it meant that the return could be sweetened dramatically.

And I'll repeat my earlier statement that Dunn and Griffey can be shopped, BUT (Everyone I know has a big "But..." C'mon, Simone, let's talk about your big "But". - bonus points) only if the return is a couple of guys that will be ready to be very good next season. The playoffs are still within reach in 2008 and any kind of firesale type activity needs to be done with that in mind.

2007 Reds Threat Level is Blue

by Slyde on May 13, 2007 12:21 PM EDT up reply actions

Good list

but I don't think the Reds will get much in return for any of them. I'd like to see the Reds figure out if they're going to keep EdE and if they're going to move him to first base. If he goes to first, then package Votto with some of the others to get something really good that we need like a catcher of the future (Saltalamacchia?).

by pw on May 13, 2007 12:55 PM EDT up reply actions

Returns

I think Lohse has the most potential in a trade (other than Junya or Dunn), but you have to think that if a guy like Sean Casey can have value to the Tigers as a rent-a-player then Hatteberg and Conine will produce some interest.

We're not getting shit for the bullpen arms, but there are other "veteran presence" GMs in the MLB. Each of the Reds' clown crew has value for somebody.

"If what you say is true...[Chia Hiu Liu _Shaolin yu Wyu Dang_ (1985) quoted in "Bring Da Ruckus" _Enter the Wu-Tang (36 Chambers) RCA, 1994.

by Man Mountain on May 13, 2007 1:17 PM EDT up reply actions

Lohse

I think you're right about Lohse having the most potential on this list. Somebody would probably want Weathers also, but not as a closer. I'd trade Valentin and bring up Moeller if a younger catcher isn't part of the return.

by pw on May 13, 2007 3:27 PM EDT up reply actions

don't forget Jr.

whatever you can get for him... even it it's just a rosin bag. Stay hot Jr, and don't get hurt!

Fire Hume!

by mattg on May 13, 2007 1:29 PM EDT up reply actions

Who do you keep?

Who are the core players for the next five years? Let's eliminate kids in the minors, just folks on the Reds currently.

Arroyo, Harang, Phillips, Hamilton.

Then it stalls. Dunn and the artist formerly known as EE have pros and cons.

looking California, and feeling Minnesota...

by obc on May 13, 2007 1:36 PM EDT reply actions

At this point

I keep Belisle, too. Not a ton of info to project on, but his BB/K , WHIP, and HR rate are solid. A nucleus of Harang, Arrozo, Bailey, Belisle, and Not Milton is a cheering thought for 2008.

I'm also keeping EdE. Move him to first, left field, catcher, whatever. He's the balls.

"If what you say is true...[Chia Hiu Liu _Shaolin yu Wyu Dang_ (1985) quoted in "Bring Da Ruckus" _Enter the Wu-Tang (36 Chambers) RCA, 1994.

by Man Mountain on May 13, 2007 2:04 PM EDT up reply actions

Phillips

A .320 OBP isn't considered a con? I like The Franchise, but let's not overlook the fact that he's had 1 decent half-season in his career. It's hard not to like what Hamilton has done to this point, but he's far from a sure thing. Let's see what happens his 2nd and 3rd time around the league before we decide that he's THE guy.

For all his flaws, Dunner has been remarkably productive and consistent for the 6 years he's been in the league. He's still young, and has a lot of good years ahead of him. It's the same phenomenon that happened to Matt Leinart and Brady Quinn. After a while, you take what he does well for granted and start picking at what he doesn't. He's the guy I'd build around. 5yr/$70 mil right now.

"Karma - there it was. The meaning of life, straight from Carson Daly's lips to my morphine-laced ears." -Earl Hickey

by BLee2525 on May 13, 2007 2:29 PM EDT up reply actions

Joey Votto...

...is playing left field today. They are really short of outfielders, I guess.

All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named "Bubba"?

by BubbaFan on May 13, 2007 1:50 PM EDT reply actions

chirp... chirp...

i go away for a weekend of bachelor party debauchery, and when i return theres little left here but a few crickets. losing made us quiet?

"Swing away, Bronson." -- sayeth Chris Welsh.

by boobs on May 13, 2007 2:53 PM EDT reply actions

re

crickets dont chirp, do they? fuh!

"Swing away, Bronson." -- sayeth Chris Welsh.

by boobs on May 13, 2007 2:54 PM EDT up reply actions

dunno

Birds chirp, squak, quack, etc...but the sounds come from a beak. Horses whinny. Dogs bark. Cats meow.

But those are all noises made from the mouth. Crickets rub their hind legs together to make that noise.

So.....whaddya call that?

looking California, and feeling Minnesota...

by obc on May 13, 2007 3:07 PM EDT up reply actions

I think so

Redsland seems rather demoralized this weekend. :-(

And yes, crickets do chirp.

All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named "Bubba"?

by BubbaFan on May 13, 2007 3:04 PM EDT up reply actions

how can you give up on the reds in MAY???

WE STILL HAVE 3 1/2 MONTHS OF BASEBALL LEFT

"Jesus is life; everything else is baseball"

by YellowJacket on May 13, 2007 3:47 PM EDT reply actions

I dunno...

because they haven't shown that they have a frickin clue so far this year?

I mean, I'm not a Negative Nelly by nature...hell, I was laughing through the latest meltdown today (because if you can't laugh...)

But if we're gonna throw caution to the wind and keep running Stanton and some of these other clowns out there and send down one of the only power arms in the bullpen to make room for a one day starter, then why the hell not give up on them?

That sound you heard in the 8th inning today was the sound of the automagic thermometer poking out of the Reds. They're cooked.

Let 'em run Saarloooose, Stanton, et al out every frickin day on this roadtrip and you can mark it down - 0 for 9. The only way they have a prayer of winning at this point is if a starter pitches a complete game, and that is no guarantee that they won't get shut down by whatever dreck the other team throws at them.

"I'd walk through hell in a gasoline suit to play baseball" - Pete Rose

by Officer Dibble on May 13, 2007 9:28 PM EDT up reply actions

The Twins

were 12 games out of first place on July 14th last year, with the eventual AL champs and the previous year's WS champs ahead of them. They had 1 shutdown starter, an absolute stud pitcher in AAA, a decent rotation, and some high points in their offense.

Arroyo, Homer, Harang and Lohse, Dunn/Griffey/Hobbs. And this was 2 months from now, in what can reasonably be considered a much much harder division.

Once you jettison some of the crap, and Homer comes up, things will get better. You have to be able to salvage some bullpen arms that can mow down the Pirates and Astros.

No team with a 175-164 EQRA-EQRS is going to be 8 games below .500. Even the Indians last year, with a -1 WXRL weren't this unlucky.

Keep the faith.

by Sean O on May 15, 2007 12:32 AM EDT reply actions

Encouraging words

I still don't see it happening. We need some spark on this team. Some fire. Some pride. The only person I've heard come close to that is Majewski, and he's still in AAA with a bum shoulder.

I do like the people on our team (for the most part). I thought we could contend before the season, because the division was weak, and our fast start helped build hopes. But when we're getting swept by teams like the Astros, it makes hope hard. When moves, both in-game and personnel, are made that just seem baffling, there's not much of a track record that suggests giving those who made the moves the benefit of the doubt.

I would like to see Stanton, Milton, Santos, Weathers, Saarloos, Conine, Hatteberg, and Valentin shopped for whoever you can get for them. Shope Lohse, but try to get something substantial in return. Keep Dunn and Griffey. Bring up the youngsters from AAA and tell them, "You are the team now. Go out there and win us a pennant! And remember, you're playing for your jobs next year."

And then play the kids. Teach the kids. If Narron can't or won't do this (and nothing has shown that he will), get someone else. Krivsky should probably be given the boot too, but I'll give him some leniency, if only because rarely will a new GM come in and have a system in place that will immediately contend.

The bullpen needs to be overhauled. Since pitchers out of the bullpen are typically unreliable from year to year (ie. they'll have a great year one year, then stink the next, or put up fantastic numbers after a career of mediocrity) you might as well roll the dice with the youngsters, who will be cheaper. If they have power arms, even better. Most people don't like the concept of closers around here, but if we could get a quality, shutdown, 9th inning guy, it would do wonders for the order, stability, and psyche of the 'pen.

So 2008:

C Ross (unless Krivsky wows us by getting someone good)
1B Votto
2B Phillips
SS Gonzalez
3B Encarnacion
LF Dunn (in a contract year)
CF Hamilton
RF Griffey (in a contract year, and shooting for historical milestones)

Rotation
Harang
Arroyo
Bailey
Belisle
whoever wins the spot in spring

Bullpen
Anybody but these guys

Bench
Freel, in his super-sub role
Moeller (again, Krivsky needs to stock the catching pipeline)
Hopper
Keppinger
Bruce

I'm not sure who Krivsky could/should go out and get. But I like that lineup (even if it's basically the same as what we've got now). There are young guys and veteran guys, but no one too ancient besides Griffey. Power at the corners, assuming a commitment is made to EdE, and defense up the middle. The rotation's not bad. The bullpen is still the question. I'd love to go back to the 90's when it seemed like we always had a good bullpen.

So no, not a lot's changed from this season. Just a lot of old fat trimmed, some promising youngsters brought up, and (please Wayne) some smart acquisitions. If we catch some of the breaks that we haven't caught this year, and the division is still weak, we should have a shot.

by Brendanukkah on May 15, 2007 10:21 AM EDT up reply actions