Beyond the Boxscore's '07 Reds Preview

by jmcclain19 on Mar 17, 2007 5:56 PM EDT Comment 11 comments

Fellow SBNation Blog Beyond the Boxscore (a daily read for me) offered up their 2007 preview of the Reds today - and lets just say they didn't pull any punches

http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/story/2007/3/17/81715/2385

I gotta say, though, it's tough to be positive about the Reds. Sure, in Homer Bailey and maybe Chris Denorfia, the Reds have a couple of kids who could make a difference, but probably not enough this year to matter. In the big picture, though, the Reds are built around a couple of starters coming off of career years, an incredibly shaky bullpen, and an offense that...well, better be improved on defense.

. . .

If you're going to take on a lot of risk, you want to make sure you have the possibility for an appropriate reward. By building an old team with too many stopgaps at important positions, the Reds have left open the possibility of a disastrous season without the upside of a very successful one.
Sure, if Griffey stays healthy, Arroyo and Harang repeat, and Homer Bailey provides a Jered Weaver-like second half, the Reds could easily crack .500 and maybe even find themselves briefly in the wild card race. But it's tough to see even that degree of luck finding its way to Cincinnati.
The Reds may be a better team than their division rival Pirates, but that doesn't mean they're a better-run franchise, at least for the next year or so. It's tough to imagine a nastier thing to say, but I'm afraid it's a fair judgment. One can only hope disaster strikes early enough that Krivsky doesn't last much longer.

I would tend to agree with most everything Jeff posted - except that I think Krivsky will be given longer to sort things out. Doesn't exactly bring sunshine to your day, but the truth can be a little tough to swallow sometimes.

I'm happier with the direction of the franchise, but not happy, if that makes sense. My secret twisted hope for the season is that the Reds bomb big time out of the gate - forcing Krivsky to pull a Terry Ryan of 2006 - dump all the worthless/over the hill vets and go cheap & young - and salvage whatever you can out of it.

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Prognosticators ...

I make it a point only to listen to baseball sages who saw the Tigers up and coming last year and predicted them for the playoffs. Since there aren't many, it's safe to say that when it comes to baseball, not too many can predict it well, and do what is safe: What happened last year, that's what's gonna happen this year.

Go Reds!

by Billingsfan on Mar 18, 2007 11:56 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Shhh...

(said in homer simpson whisper voice) don't tell that to statheads...they think they can predict the fuuuuuture...

HA! ;)

The Reds will play baseball in October.

Are we there yet?

by Daedalus on Mar 18, 2007 12:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'm confused by the stathead crack

Did statheads invented prognosticating? Nobody ever tried to predict a baseball season before Bill James?

by Red Menace on Mar 18, 2007 8:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

never

no one ever did.

Are we there yet?

by Daedalus on Mar 18, 2007 9:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

no

when Bill Jamey was just a little baby
sittin on his daddy's knees
he gave a long and lonesome cry
said 'The Giants will win the World Series.'
'The Giants will win the World Series!'

And in the end the love you take is equal to the love you make.

by boobs on Mar 18, 2007 9:22 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Too Little Effort

This is one of those easy, 30,000 feet dismissals of the Reds. The problem isn't the use of stats; it's the lack of real critical thinking, and the use of conventional wisdom to color (or ignore) stats that didn' match ("Harang had a career year in 2006.")

This guy is still relying on an erroneous ZIPS projection for Livingston - one that was replaced back in January with an accurate one 2 runs higher.

by cggarb on Mar 18, 2007 2:55 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

And Another Thing

All this time, I have been thinking the Reds have an excellent opportunity to be a better team than they were last year. I see a stable, if not spctacular, starting rotation. I see a bullpen that is greatly improved over last year's Rick Whites and Chis Hammonds, with a mixture of youth and veterans. I see a much stronger infield defense, around the horn--but particularly up the middle. I see a more flexible bench, both offensively and defensively. I see greater depth in the outfield and pitching that goes all the way to Louisville--Denorfia, Hopper, Ramirez, Livingston, Santos, Bailey. Do any of the critics remember the situation a year ago? Evidence suggests this is a much improved team. I think this leads to more wins this year--I'll predict that. And I'll wager that Carlos Lee and Jeff Suppan aren't necessarily worth as much as their contracts.

How many wins for the Reds? And how many wins for our divisional foes?

by jamesp50014 on Mar 18, 2007 6:49 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

tough to say

Question marks for the Reds:

*Junior
*Can offense be league average+?
*#3, #4 and #5 rotation guys. Can they approach league average? Can they eat some innings?
*will Kriv be smart enough to ditch the 3 catchers concept?
*Can the bullpen's high leverage guys be among the league leaders in preventing inherited runs from scoring?
*Narron and his infatuation with Veteran Presence. Will he enroll in a 12 step program to cure his addiction?

I predicted 70 wins last season, not factoring Arroyo/Ross/BP. Then again I didn't anticipate The Trade either.

And I listen, to the voice inside my head...nothing, I'll do this one myself. "State of Love and Trust"

by ohiobobcat on Mar 19, 2007 10:25 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I really liked this line

If you're going to take on a lot of risk, you want to make sure you have the possibility for an appropriate reward. By building an old team with too many stopgaps at important positions, the Reds have left open the possibility of a disastrous season without the upside of a very successful one.

This was my biggest problem with Krivsky's winter, with its endless spree of Conines and Moellers.

by Red Menace on Mar 19, 2007 12:11 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Looking at the NL central

it is a silly espn-esc attitude to assume the Reds will be a non-factor this year. Unfortunatly, I feel like its all about the money-honey. you hype the big market teams trying to raise attendance across the league. When you do nothing but talk about how much better LA and Chicago are going to be, well, someone has to lose to them, so lets upset the fewest amout of people possable, and pick on the small market teams.

GO REDS!

by ewquinn on Mar 19, 2007 1:12 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I don't know if that's the case here

Jeff (the author) is a huge Brewers Fan. I'm pretty sure he understands the woes of small market coverage.

I think his biggest flaw is that he breezed through his analysis of the starting staff. That's understandable for someone who is not a fan of the team and is trying to put out 30 team previews. But it is a flaw of his preview. I think he fell into the assumption that the Reds history of pitching struggles along with the lack of top notch names has caused him to assume that there isn't much there. But for back of the rotation starters, I think they are good enough. They may not be great, but they will play the role well, I think.