In light of Reds 2006 No. 1 pick's performance at Billings this summer, I decided to do a little investigation.

This is a question I've always had, When does whether or not a player can hit matter to their future chances as a major leaguer? Is it rookie ball? Is it A or AA ball? Using Drew Stubbs as my main point of debate, I posed the question. Does hitting in Rookie Ball matter?

First, I wanted to look at some of Drew's peers. Coming out of college, Stubbs was considered one of the best college hitters available.

I'm using OPS for comparison - an imperfect stat, but an excellent quick and dirty way to show batting eye & power.

Lets look back a few years just to let some history develop. These are the top College draftable bats of the year, taken in the 1st round of that year's draft.

2002 Draft 1st Round College Bats
Drew Meyer - Skipped Rookie Ball - Started off in Low A where he OPS'd 593 - and he's been awful ever since. A career AAAA player.
Khalil Greene - Skipped Rookie Ball - Put up an OPS of 893 in High A in his first year.
Russ Adams - Skipped Rookie Ball - OPS'd 933 for Low A in his first year
Nick Swisher - Skipped Rookie Ball - Started in Low A with an OPS of 888.

2003 Draft 1st round College Bats
Rickie Weeks - Played 1 game at Rookie ball before moving to Low A to OPS 1050
Michael Aubrey - Skipped Rookie ball and went straight to Low A where he OPS'd 960.
Aaron Hill - Skipped Rookie Ball and went straight to Low A where he OPS'd 938.
Brian Anderson - Played 13 games at Rookie ball (and OPSing 1084 in 58PA) before moving on to High A and put up an OPS of 925.
Brad Snyder - Skipped Rookie Ball and went straight to Low A where he put up an OPS of 860
Conor Jackson - Skipped Rookie Ball where he moved onto High A and OPS'd 943

2004 Draft 1st round College Bats
Stephen Drew - Sat out a year, but when he came back, he skipped Rookie Ball and started at High A where he put up an OPS of 1224
Josh Fields - Skipped Rookie Ball - Started off at High A where he put up an OPS of 778
Landon Powell - Skipped Rookie Ball - Started off in Low A where he put up an OPS of 725
Richard Robnett - Skipped Rookie Ball - Started in Low A where he put up an OPS of 841

So we have a couple of players on there who started off with a 1st season OPS under 800 (like Stubbs 768). Drew Meyer, a player who has proven that he pretty much can't hit at any level going on four years now. Landon Powell, a catcher who didn't start out on fire a full level above Stubbs, and Josh Fields, who didn't play baseball full time until he was drafted, but still put up the same numbers as Stubbs two full levels above him. Fields went crazy the next summer, and is now regarded as one of the White Sox top prospects.

The rest, all put up better numbers, and they did it against better competition at a higher level.

But that could be just a small sample size. So, just for fun, here is a link to every Red playing right now, every Red from the last couple of seasons, several AAAA players, and a few top prospects in the Reds system right now. Take a peek at how everyone did in Rookie ball, and how old they were when they went thru that level. You'll notice that for College players - the overwhelming majority were deemed a good enough hitters to skip rookie ball altogether.

Drew Stubbs - College Player - 21 - .251AVG/.366OBP/.402SLG/.768OPS

Drafted as a College Player
David Ross - College Player - Skipped Rookie Ball
Jason LaRue - College Player - 21 - .273AVG/.366OBP/.410SLG/.776OPS
Scott Hatteberg - College Player - Skipped Rookie Ball
Rich Aurilia - College Player - 20 - .337AVG/.453OBP/.465SLG/.918OPS
Ryan Freel - JunCollege Player - Skipped Rookie Ball
Chris Denorfia - College Player - 22 - .340AVG/.425OBP/.405SLG/.830OPS
Sean Casey - College player - Skipped Rookie Ball
Joe Randa - College Player - Skipped Rookie Ball
Dane Sardinha - College Player - Skipped Rookie Ball
Jacob Cruz - College Player - Skipped Rookie Ball
Brandon Larson - College Player - Skipped Rookie Ball
Tim Hummell - College Player - Skipped Rookie Ball
Barry Larkin - College Player - Skipped Rookie Ball
John Vander Wal - College Player - Skipped Rookie Ball
Jermaine Clark - College Player - Skipped Rookie Ball
Corky Miller - College Player - 22 - .271AVG/.455OBP/.450SLG/.905OPS
Brendan Harris - College Player - Skipped Rookie Ball
Jesse Guiterrez - College Player - 23 - .294/AVG.302OBP/.550SLG/.852OPS
Matt Kata - College Player - Skipped Rookie Ball
Andy Abad - College Player - 21 - .248AVG/.326OBP/.317SLG/.643OPS
Aaron Boone - College Player - 21 - .273AVG/.362OBP/.453SLG/.815OPS
Kelly Stinnett - College Player - Skipped Rookie Ball
Steve Smitherman - College Player - 21 - .316AVG/.373OBP/.551SLG/.924OPS
Eric Valent - College Player - Skipped Rookie Ball
Todd Walker - College Player - Skipped Rookie Ball
Brady Clark - College Player - Skipped Rookie Ball

Drafted as a High School Player
Javier Valentin - HS Player - 17 & 18 - .226AVG/.290OBP/.356SLG/.646OPS
Royce Clayton - HS Player - Skipped Rookie Ball
Brandon Phillips - HS Player - 18 - .290AVG/.352OBP/.408SLG/.760OPS
Edwin Encarnacion - HS Player - 17 & 18 - .284AVG/.333OBP/.384SLG/.717OPS
Adam Dunn - HS Player - 18 - .288AVG/.404OBP/.424SLG/.828OPS
Ken Griffey - HS Player - Skipped Rookie Ball
Joey Votto - HS Player - 18 & 19 - .296AVG/.407OBP/.506SLG/.913OPS
Jay Bruce - HS Player - 18 - .266AVG/.341OBP/.484SLG/.825OPS
Austin Kearns - HS Player - 18 - .315AVG/.433OBP/.426SLG/.859OPS
Felipe Lopez - HS Player - Skipped Rookie Ball
Todd Hollandsworth - HS Player - Skipped Rookie Ball
Jason Romano - HS Player - 18 - .257AVG/.340OBP/.413SLG/.753OPS
Brandon Watson - HS Player - 17 - .303AVG/.365OBP/.319SLG/.684SLG
Norris Hopper - HS Player - 19 & 20 - .279AVG/.350OBP/.314SLG/.664OPS
Cody Ross - HS Player - 18 - .218AVG/.303OBP/.401SLG/.704OPS
Reggie Taylor - HS Player - 18 - .222AVG/.295OBP/.314SLG/.609OPS
Russell Branyon - HS Player - 18 - 211AVG/.316OBP/.357SLG/.673OPS
Dernell Stenson - HS Player - 18 - .216AVG/.332OBP/.330SLG/.662OPS
Gookie Dawkins - HS Player - 18 - .241AVG/.315OBP/.308SLG/.623OPS

Signed as a Free Agent
Anderson Machado - FA Player - 17 & 18 - .226AVG/.318OBP/.296SLG/.614OPS
Miguel Perez - FA Player - 17 & 18 - .345AVG/.406OBP/.406SLG/.812OPS
Juan Castro - FA Player - 19 - .276AVG/.375OBP/.327SLG/.702OPS
Wily Mo Pena - FA Player - 17 - .247AVG/.303OBP/.446SLG/.749OPS
Ray Olmedo - FA Player - 18 - .236AVG/.286OBP/.323SLG/.609OPS
D'Angelo Jiminez - FA Player - 17 - .280AVG/.354OBP/.449SLG/.803OPS
Ruben Mateo - FA Player - 17 - .301AVG/.376OBP/.455SLG/.831OPS
Jose Guillen - FA Player - 18 - .264AVG/.313OBP/.427SLG/.740OPS

And here are the players from the 2002, 2003 & 2004 Billings teams who did not post at least an .800 OPS
2002
Brad Correll
Daniel Mateo
Walter Olmstead
Alan Moye
Steve Booth
Troy Cairns
Manuel Paula
Rafael Motooka
Jarrod Schmidt
Ryan Fry
Jared Humphries
Yinner Colina
Jeremy Ison
2003
Chris Dickerson
Rusty Beale
Rusty Beale
Phil Gentry
Robert Mosby
Troy Cairns
Juan Acevedo
Will Hudson
Chad Ziemendorf
Kyle Smith
Clay Cleveland
Manuel Paula
Jeff Urgelles
Ivan Reyes
Tonys Gutierrez
Rafael Motooka
2004
Bradley Key
Trevor Lawhorn
Paul Janish
Drew Anderson
Travis Kaats
Craig Tatum
Drew Phillips
Elvin Beltre
B.J. Szymanski
Jason Ellis
Tiago Campos
J.D. Roberts
Jordan Belcher
Matt Levering
Reynaldo Gonzalez
The HS players and FA signings are a big mish mash of results, but because of their relative young age, all had years to develop before moving up to the higher levels. You'll notice the 2002-2004 Billings list littered with washouts and failures, not a single real prospect on that list.

So there you have it. My first breakdown of the season. Does Stubbs still have a chance to turn out to be something? Sure, the game of baseball has lots of quirky ways about it. Stubbs could go ballistic this summer and render this entire discussion mute. But it certainly doesn't look promising.

All points to skewer or help build upon my methods and conclusions are welcomed and encouraged.
Edited some formatting & spelling @5pm